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Assuming the bills get in the playoffs, how confident are you they get to the superbowl?


Steptide

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If we get #2 seed, i am confident that we will make to Superbowl.  We always play well against Lamar's Baltimore and this year's AFC playoff teams, except Baltimore,  are all mediocre.  Also, no Cincinnati and Joe Burrow.  

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51 minutes ago, djp14150 said:


 

 

 

if Mia can best   KC …think it’s possible, buffalo host 4/5. 50/50 shot at hosting championship game 

if KC wins, buf host them.CLE would be problem for balt. Buffalo could host CLE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the goal is to host the AFCCG, we want KC coming to Buffalo in the divisional round. No way in hell Miami, as the 6 seed is going into Baltimore and beating them. I don't care how bad a game playoff Lamar has. 

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13 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

I don’t know. For some reason, the Miami game still scares me. Wish it didn’t. 

It should.  
 

They have a capable offensive play caller and the 2 fastest playmakers in the league. 2 more of the fastest playmakers may or may not play. 

 

They have a capable defensive play caller and a handful of pro bowlers.  
 

And there’s always a chance that we get the 💩 end of the ref calls

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14 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

I don’t know. For some reason, the Miami game still scares me. Wish it didn’t. 


 

The Miami O will scare me a bit more if Mostert and Waddle practice in full.  
 

McD’s D on the road has only stifled the Chiefs.  Who are terrible.  Need to bring it against a good O on the road.  
 

And how hurt is Allen.  
 

Legitimate concerns.  But I don’t think as bad as Miami’s.  Who also, don’t have to play as desperate as we likely will.  

 

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In a single elimination tournament and with trememdous parity at the top of the league, all you can do is go out there and compete your butt off.   Games will be very even play by play from scrimmage, but a late turnovers or referee call will probably turn these one-score games one way or the other.   Hell, Philly lost the very close SB last year on a ref's call on a broken play.   Predicting progress in a one-and-done tournament format is impossible.   

 

All I can say for sure is that this team will compete its butt off and I'm good with that.  How the game score turns out at the highest level is pretty much a crapshoot

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if we get the 2 seed, i'd feel our chances are as good as a typical 2 seed.  maybe better because we have done well against the ravens in past seasons but the sample is small.

 

if we get a wildcard, i'd also feel our chances are as good as a typical wildcard, meaning not so good.  even during this turnaround, our road performances don't inspire confidence that we could win 3 road games in a row.  KC could easily have been a loss, we choked away the Philly game (and look at their recent results), and we almost lost to the pathetic chargers.

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95%  chance we make the playoffs 

75% chance we win wild card week

75% chance we win divisional round

50% chance we win championship game

50% chance we win superbowl

 

95% x 75% x 75% x 50% = 27% chance to get to the superbowl 
 

27% x 50% = 13.5% to win Super Bowl from where we are standing today. 
 

FanDuel has the Bills at 9.5% likely currently.  I am slightly more optimistic than FanDuel. 

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Very confident, in fact I almost feel like I know its going to happen. 

 

Defense is playing damn well the past month and just got Jones back. A lot of the bumps and bruises all over the defense have healed up at the right time. They are playing fast and confident and with an edge/physicality we don't often see. They are a force. 

 

The offense is truly very close to breaking out. They were two missed Josh Allen passes away from having that breakout against a really good patriots defense last week (hit Kincaid and Diggs and its a way different offensive output). The chances are there, they have been lacking in execution against really good defenses. Its going to come and likely this week, and then its good night to the rest of the NFL.

 

SUPER BOWL! 

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If they get the #2 seed, then I would say the AFCCG is a good bet. I don't know if they can get by the Ravens in Baltimore, however. If the Ravens lose in the divisional round and the Bills end up with homefield throughout the playoffs, then I think they will be in the Super Bowl.  All bets are off if they go in as a #6 or #7 seed. See McDermott's Road playoff record (0-4).

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This has been about the wackiest NFL season I can remember. Not just for the Bills but NFL wide. The amount of injury to top players. Bad officiating. It could finish just as odd with some oddball Super Bowl match like Indy and the Rams.

 

I think if Buffalo get in at the 2 seed they have a real good chance. It going to come down to 3 things for me.

 

1. Allen's health. The shoulder has taken a lot of wear and tear this year. What's he got left? The new injury to the finger is also a potential issue depending on how bad it is. Not only plays into how the ball comes off his hand when passing, but also grip on the ball especially in colder weather.

 

2. Team health. Can't afford to lose any more key players. 

 

3. Officiating. Shouldn't factor in like this, but sadly it's a real issue. And not just in our games, but the other games as well. Imagine Cleveland playing in Baltimore in the Divisional round and having them beat...only for the refs to interject with a bad call and now instead of HOSTING Cleveland, we are traveling to Baltimore for the AFCCG. Big difference in fortune. 

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This team seems to play to the level of their competition, so I suppose it's a good thing that the competition is better in the playoffs. 

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12 hours ago, Steptide said:

It's weird, I feel much less confident about the bills in the playoffs this year than in years past. They've won 4 straight, and assuming they beat Miami, they'd ultimately have to win 9 straight games to win the superbowl, which seems unlikely Imo. I mean, maybe the offense steps up big and they become this unstoppable force, but the offense is REALLY gonna have to step up. This team isn't getting through Baltimore (and others) with Diggs having 40 yards a game 

 

I feel no where near as confident in this team as i did for the team of the 90's teams. I was positive that those guys would bring it home but alas .

 

If these guys can make it in the play offs they have the talent to win it all i believe they just have to play to their abilities or talent level and they can do it but that has been the over riding problem this year is to play to the players capabilities .

 

If they are going to win it all they can't drop passes, Josh can't just over throw the ball by that much, you can't miss tackles or blocks, the entire team has to be on it's game and if they do it with out Von would be just another nail to debunk the thought that you need a guy like him to make it happen .

 

I hope they can put it all together & have a little bit of luck on their side which every team needs or has to win the big game . GO BILLS !!! 

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12 hours ago, Steptide said:

It's weird, I feel much less confident about the bills in the playoffs this year than in years past. They've won 4 straight, and assuming they beat Miami, they'd ultimately have to win 9 straight games to win the superbowl, which seems unlikely Imo. I mean, maybe the offense steps up big and they become this unstoppable force, but the offense is REALLY gonna have to step up. This team isn't getting through Baltimore (and others) with Diggs having 40 yards a game 

 

I'm feeling fairly confident if our defense and run game stay hot. Before it was all on Josh. I think we can win a game or two for sure. But getting by Baltimore or even Cleveland won't be easy.

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12 hours ago, Steptide said:

It's weird, I feel much less confident about the bills in the playoffs this year than in years past. They've won 4 straight, and assuming they beat Miami, they'd ultimately have to win 9 straight games to win the superbowl, which seems unlikely Imo. I mean, maybe the offense steps up big and they become this unstoppable force, but the offense is REALLY gonna have to step up. This team isn't getting through Baltimore (and others) with Diggs having 40 yards a game 

 

I think if they get the 2, they are 50/50 to go to the SB

 

I think if they get the 6, they'll win maybe 1 and prob be out

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I am as confident as I have been since 1990s. Last year was too crazy and 2021 we had to go to Arrowhead. This team is built well to beat anyone and we just need consistency from Josh. Right now Josh is my biggest concern, he has not looked particularly good since October, except for Philly. 

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13 hours ago, Steptide said:

It's weird, I feel much less confident about the bills in the playoffs this year than in years past. They've won 4 straight, and assuming they beat Miami, they'd ultimately have to win 9 straight games to win the superbowl, which seems unlikely Imo. I mean, maybe the offense steps up big and they become this unstoppable force, but the offense is REALLY gonna have to step up. This team isn't getting through Baltimore (and others) with Diggs having 40 yards a game 

 

I wonder if you could add a poll?

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They are to inconsistent and turnovers will kill them in the playoffs.

 

If they can play the way they did against Dallas 4 games in a row they will have a shot, but they will probably stink up the joint for at least one game like the Chargers/Patriots the last two weeks and get bounced.

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I have confidence that they can win 2 home games against some combination of Houston, Indy, KC, or Jax.

 

Cleveland concerns me, but they would get them at home.  

 

Going to Baltimore is a really tough deal.  Im hoping 2 weeks off blows them up and the lose in the Divisional Round....

 

 

 

If the Bills lose to Miami...

 

I have little confidence in running the table @KC, @Balt, and probably @Cleveland or @Miami

 

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I don't have a lot of faith unfortunately. The Bills are too streaky to play (including this weekend) 4 great games in a row. People will say they won the last 4 in a row and I'd respond that we played like crap the past 2 weeks and still won over really bad competition. There are no last place teams in the playoffs. You can't take a week off and barely win anyhow.

 

We need to win Sunday to get in. So that means beating Miami on their field, followed by home game against Miami again, home game vs KC, away at Baltimore. If you look at it like that as if it was a regular season schedule you would assume Bills lose 1 if not 2 of those games. Just being realistic sorry!

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The perplexing thing with this team is how we allow mediocre opponents to hang around and beat us or keep it close. I believe Zac Taylor sent Clappy to school in last year's playoffs vs Cincy. Maybe changing OCs really was the spark we needed. But all of that is in the past. We will no longer face mediocre teams except perhaps the AFC South entrants.

 

I am not afraid of any of the NFC teams, even SF. Brock Purdy was exposed by the Ravens as a caretaker QB who can be rattled. We have proven we can hang with the Cowboys and Eagles. The Lions are very solid but Jared Goff is not.

 

We are not playing as well as the Ravens are right now. They look like they are hitting on all cylinders and are mostly healthy. Psychologically, Lamar Jackson doesn't have much playoff experience compared to Josh. If he wins the MVP as expected there will be more pressure on him. He's having an amazing year but their skill position players don't scare me. Their D is very good but not Ray Lewis/Ed Reed/Terrell Suggs good. If we were to face them it would be as a 7 point underdog. If we get a turnover against them we could score an upset.

 

The team that scares me is the Browns. They have beaten both SF and Baltimore largely with practice squad QBs. That defense is killer good. 

 

I feel that there is no pressure on us. I also believe we are a better road team than home team. I believe we can rise to the occasion against all comers on a given day. How many given days we can string together remains to be seen. One thing we have this year that is an improvement is an established running attack. We are as healthy as any other playoff opponent. I don't expect a SB victory given how we've performed during the year but we have all the ingredients to surprise and upset people.

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Josh Allen has to play better. His last two games have been pathetic.  He has missed receivers left and right, over throws, underthrown, thrown behind the receiver and then throwing into double coverage when there are other options on the field for him.

 

He has to get his head right and hopefully this starts in Miami.  We only go as far as he takes us, and he needs to makes big improvements over the last 2 games and not this 50% completion 200 yd game crap we have seen on the field in the last 2 weeks.  We need to see the offense like it was in Philly and some of the Dallas game too.

 

I think they have it in them, but its going to take an extra ordinary effort for them to make this happen.

 

They have been playing with house money the last 5 weeks and they managed to get 4 wins out of 5.

 

Lets see if Josh pulls it together with a 3TD 350 plus yard passing game in Miami, and Digg's has a big day to get these two guys focused and back on track again for a playoff run. 

 

If he can do this and the D does not self implode.  Yes they have a chance.

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It's truly hard to gauge this team right now, if anything because of how wildly inconsistent JA17 and the offense have been all year. The ST unit is also a major liability on a week to week basis. On one had you can say this team could one be and done if they get to the playoffs, on the other you can say they can get to the Superbowl and possibly win it.

 

I guess what truly concerns me is it seems like they are on the same type of trajectory as last year. And even if they win against a reeling, injury riddled Dolphins team on Sunday night I could see a carbon copy repeat of last year's playoffs (i.e. barely win wildcard game, then get handled easily in divisional round and lose by 2+ scores).

 

If there was one positive sign to hold on it's the defense, because aside from the 2nd half of the Eagles game they have truly come together since MNF Broncos debacle and making key plays when needed especially at the end of the game. But even with a true semblance of a rushing attack make no mistake about it, this team is only going as far JA17 takes them which is why we need to see some resemblance of 2021 playoff JA17 starting this week in Miami.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

They got this! It’s gonna be ugly as Fuh k, stumbling bumbling rumbling all the way!!! 
 

GO BILLS!!!

Thats the dream right - wouldn't it be great to clunk their way through...play the Chiefs and win in some crapshow just to piss Nick W off....

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13 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Against the 49ers, not so much.

 

If somehow it's against anyone else, I think we'd have a legit shot and probably be the favorite.

See I think we would play the niners really well. I think McD is very good at game planning against unfamiliar QBs. 

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Nobody should ever be confident getting to the superbowl. That is thinking about it all wrong.

13 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Against the 49ers, not so much.

 

If somehow it's against anyone else, I think we'd have a legit shot and probably be the favorite.

McDermott has a great record against Shanahan and his disciples. Just saying.

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One game at a time.  This team is capable.  

The penalties are way down! 

Work on the turnovers.

Defense is helping out.  

McD has a history of bottling up Lamar Jackson.

The NFC is beatable. 

In other words- the competition is also down.  

 

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They find ways to win, and they can go toe-to-toe with anyone when they're at their best.  Not sure if they're gonna bring that 'A' game any given week, so I'm not saying it's a lock, but I see it as a definate possibility.  I'm confident they *can*, if they get in at least.  I'm not looking past that step yet.

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15 hours ago, sven233 said:

Put it this way......I am more worried about this team beating itself like they always seem to do in the Playoffs in some way, shape, or form than I am about a team just beating us because they are superior.  Yes, the Ravens are playing great.  But am I afraid that they are so good they will just run through us?  No. 

 

I am more worried about McDermott wasting TOs or challenging stupid plays, or not going for it at the right times than I am of another team just beating us because they are that mich better.  I am more worried about our offense not being able to move the ball because they can never scheme open their best WR or run it from the shotgun with Murray right into a lineman's back on 4th and 1 and not just using the tush push.  I am worried that Allen might just have one of those days like he had Sunday where the ball just doesn't come out of his hand right and he just misses guys that are open.  I am worried about taking the lead with a minute left and the defense not being able to close the game when needed the most.

 

So, all that said, I am more worried about us and what we do than other teams just flat out outplaying us.  Of course that could happen, but it's not what I am focused on or worried about the most.

 

I'm with you here.  The past two seasons we've had the #1 and #2 defenses, yet they collapsed in the playoffs in the 13-Seconds game and last year against Cincy, and we were hardly above-average much less #2 in facing Skylar Thompson's Fins with essentially no RB.  So I'm in the have-to-see-it-to-believe-it mode re: our defense in the playoffs.  

 

Seems to me that if the offense doesn't carry the games as it did in our four playoff games in '21 and '22 except for the Ravens' game, with no offense by the Ravens, and averageing 36 PPG in the other three games, not sure we do much.  

 

Having said that I'm hopeful.  Also thinking that maybe being a 6th/7th seed might be the kick-in-the-pants that we need to win one.  

 

We've also only played three teams ranked in the top-12 in scoring, so it's not as if our D has played the best offenses.  Philly took our D to task.  We got the best of Dallas, but they're slumping, so how much is related to that.  And Miami was early in the season.  

 

 

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