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harryS

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Everything posted by harryS

  1. I will piggyback off your post for my own unpopular opinion. Sean McDermott is 49 years old, keeps himself in good shape, and should be able to live another 40-45 years or so. Let's give him a full 50 years of remaining life to make it a round number. The Bills winning the Super Bowl will increase the life expectancy of millions of Bills fans by at least one year. That's a conservative estimate. Most people would live an extra 3-5 years, imo. Millions of (collective) years > 50 years. Therefore, Bills fans should mob up and murder Sean McDermott in the street.
  2. Stroud scored 3 points today. I think some folks got drunk on recency bias. 1-0 on my bets so far. I hope to finish 2-1. (Well, I hope the Bills win by 1 or 2 but if that's not possible I'd rather lose my bet and have them win).
  3. The Ravens have been obsessed with their 2019 failure when they were the #1 seed and lost their first playoff game in this round. That obsession will either drive them to (A) put together one of their best performances in this game or (B) choke. I tend to think it'll be (A). Ravens -9.5 is my third favorite bet of this week following TB +6 (previously 6.5) and KC +2.5.
  4. this is the cost of losing to the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos. if we take care of business, maybe we could've rested guys Week 18. additionally, if we don't choke away the game at Philadelphia, maybe we're not even playing in the wild card round. there's usually a price to pay for not taking care of business. but we're here now and we're at home. hopefully we can man up and next-man-up our way to a W.
  5. That's true. I should've added I just don't want the Chiefs to have 2 extra days of rest. They also basically had a bye Week 18.
  6. Sorry if already covered, but with the postponement, the Bills went from a 9-pt favorite to a 10-pt favorite, and the total went from 33 to 37.5 (crossing the key number of 37). It's probably true that the Bills have a better chance of beating the Steelers playing it Monday but given that we were big favorites either way, I'd have liked that extra day of rest to prep the Chiefs.
  7. I mean, the Bills ripped Miami's hearts out last week. KC just put a dead-man-walking out of its misery, is all.
  8. if we get the 2 seed, i'd feel our chances are as good as a typical 2 seed. maybe better because we have done well against the ravens in past seasons but the sample is small. if we get a wildcard, i'd also feel our chances are as good as a typical wildcard, meaning not so good. even during this turnaround, our road performances don't inspire confidence that we could win 3 road games in a row. KC could easily have been a loss, we choked away the Philly game (and look at their recent results), and we almost lost to the pathetic chargers.
  9. i mean, Pitt is currently -4, so that's roughly an 11 point swing in the line if it were a normal week. i think the oddsmakers very much expect the Ravens to do a lot of resting of starters. even if they play a series or two.
  10. I think both teams will be very motivated to win regardless of previous results
  11. plus, nothing is official yet. okay i agree chubb is probably out but every other player mentioned could play. there's no reason to believe at this point that miami will be any more banged up than the average nfl team at this stage of the season. or that they'll be more banged up than the bills.
  12. Expect a tough game. This would be the Bills' best win of the season (which is different from most dominant / impressive). We've only beaten one good team on the road this season, KC, and the Chiefs are .500 at home this season (beating the Bengals today got them to .500). Miami, on the other hand, is 7-1 at home this season. Add in the stakes -- it could be 2 seed or out of the playoffs -- and that we're playing to win the division against a hated division rival, this would be our best win. We've come a long way but this is everything here.
  13. First of all, every single playoff team will have a bad performance on the resume akin to this win. Secondly, the pros who do this for a living (oddsmakers and pro bettors) have consistently rated the Bills as a top 8 team in the league, i.e. playoff worthy.
  14. okay, just wanted to quickly point out something (1) apparently peacock has a wild card game this year. i didn't even realize that until reading this thread. (2) lots of people are recommending to buy peacock for the Bills game and then cancel right afterwards. if you buy peacock today, your month subscription would cover the wild-card game (which very well may involve the Bills). wild card weekend is Jan 13-15. i'd illegally stream both, but if you're going to buy peacock, then NO, don't cancel it right after Saturday.
  15. not sure i agree that complaining about bad only to receive worse makes it our fault. in a just world, it would've led to better. anyway, i agree with everyone saying to use an illegal stream so the streak doesn't break. good post. re: this final point, I would say it's okay to make a one-time exception in response to the extreme boning in the butt described by OP. plus, when you stream illegally, it's not like they cut out the commercials.
  16. Why? Since the switch to Brady, we lost to the Eagles on the road and very easily could've lost to the Chiefs on the road. We blew out the Cowboys and Jets at home. I think getting a home game would be great. Also, historically, is there any easy way to look up all Super Bowl champions that had to play 3 conference playoff games? If we compare: (1) Those that had to play all 3 conference games on the road to (2) Those that started their playoff run at home #2 will be multiple times more numerous than #1. Has there ever even been a Super Bowl champ that won three conference road games? I think maybe one of the Eli Manning teams did it?
  17. Unless it brings you some level of enjoyment, I wouldn't live and die on the games from other playoff contenders. Keep it simple. The Bills win out, or they don't deserve to make the playoffs. I know it's a difficult task to win out, but it was the Bills who put themselves in that position by blowing so many games they should've won this season. Now it's time to do something special to dig ourselves out of the hole, or well, it's onto the draft and free agency. A lot of Bills games are already torture to watch. I don't see the point in adding to the torture by living and dying on a Bengals-Vikings game on a Saturday.
  18. Making the playoffs isn't the goal anyway, and hopefully people remember that! We want to win a Super Bowl. Making the playoffs only to choke away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs is a failure. The sneaky bastard McDermott has moved the goalposts. Very few expect us to make the playoffs anymore, so now making the playoffs with Josh Allen is a success lol and will save his job.
  19. I can believe they'll get in. Only for the season to end with the Bills choking away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs in the playoffs. McDermott gonna McDermott.
  20. While it's mathematically possible to lose to both the Eagles and Chiefs and still make the playoffs, in reality we need to cash in on the advantageous schedule situation we're in to go at least 1-1 and hopefully 2-0. (Against KC, the advantage is obviously 2 weeks of prep/rest to their 1 week). We're not going to win out if we blow these two opportunities here. Also, from a "deserve it" standpoint, we need to man up and get a good road win. The Browns won at the Ravens. The Texans won at the Bengals (with Burrow). Our only road win is Washington so far.
  21. Of course not. You're basically saying he's never going to have a season in the future where we say, "This is the best he's ever played." Josh has never even played under a great offensive mind yet. Hopefully Brady proves to be one.
  22. As others have explained, they are on a short week after playing on MNF in an emotional and hard-fought Super Bowl revenge game while the Bills coasted to a blowout win. Eagles have the 49ers on deck next week while the Bills have a bye, so we will focus solely on Philly and let it all hang loose this week. Savvy bettors have recognized this as a great "spot"/situation for the Bills and it's the sole reason the point spread is 3 instead of 3.5 or 4.
  23. That was the only time Belichick was coaching for real, as he was auditioning for Pegula. The rest of the time, he's been trying to get Kraft to fire him, i.e. release him from his contract with pay. (As an aside, getting fired in pro sports is awesome). It's obvious that Belichick is eyeing Josh as his next Brady, like Palpatine lusting after a young undisciplined Annakin. Together, they could build an empire and deliver Buffalo multiple Super Bowl trophies. Unfortunately, not sure Pegula is paying attention or if Kraft is falling for it.
  24. Absolutely right. This one is more speculative, but why not, let's speculate. Among public sharps (those that share their picks on podcasts, twitter, etc, after they have already bet), there has been more of a sharp preference for Cincy although it is by no means unanimous as some sharps disagree and back Buffalo. It's not like the over, which is heavily backed by the sharps. I do think the public sharps are representative of the overall sharp pool, so why hasn't this line moved when both the public and the sharps favor the Bengals. Ah, here's the rub. There's a subset of the sharp pool called "syndicates." These are rich men, many with a background in math and finance -- some come from Wall Street -- and they pool their money together kind of like a hedge fund and have decided they want to conquer NFL betting using mathematical models. These guys wait to bet later in the week when the sportsbooks have fully removed the limits, so the syndicate can drop $100,000 on the Bills if they want to. Why would the syndicates prefer Buffalo? Remember, these guys are math nerds. Buffalo's season-long stats are way better than Cincy's. They probably have Buffalo favored by 1 in this game or something.
  25. Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board. As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do.
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