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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF


Beck Water

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This is clearly the biggest game of the 2nd half of our season with huge postseason implications. We are favored by a razor thin margin. Ball security will be paramount. Adeniji is a huge liability at RT and Rousseau needs to take full advantage after a lackluster performance against Chicago. Allen needs to play well. If the weather dictates a run first approach, that means not trying to force anything and just make some nice plays while avoiding turnovers. Josh was lucky he didn't have a couple more picks in Chicago. He has to make better decisions on Monday night and I think he will bounce back.

 
 
 
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1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

I still think about that fumble and flukey catch on 4th &18  vs the Vikings... 

They win that game and we just have to go 1-1. Huge gm. Can't wait 

There were also lots of close wins and last minute heroics.  It goes both ways.

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For the amount of times we have seen Pittsburgh and Baltimore the past few years during the regular season it seems odd that we have not had the Bengals on our schedule since 2019.

 

I am sure there is some kind of voodoo scheduling math the NFL uses, but would think this matchup would have the better games with the two young guns battling it out.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, WideNine said:

For the amount of times we have seen Pittsburgh and Baltimore the past few years during the regular season it seems odd that we have not had the Bengals on our schedule since 2019.

 

I am sure there is some kind of voodoo scheduling math the NFL uses, but would think this matchup would have the better games with the two young guns battling it out.

 

 

Yeah it’s determined by where each team finishes in their division. This can lead to repeat matchups and long stretches between others. 

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8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

WHERE'S THE CINCY WEATHER THREAD! SOMEONE PLEASE MAKE A CINCY WEATHER THREAD!! WE ARE 7 DAYS AWAY AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE WEATHER MAY BE IN CINCY ON JAN 2.

 

High in the mid-50s, cloudy, chance of rain.

Yeah looks like 40% chance of rain at 8 pm. Hope it’s a bit off and we have a dry game. 

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22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

On offense the Bengals are one dimensional. They're only averaging 3.9 yards per rush, 28th lowest in the league. Our defense thrives against one dimensional offenses. Their OL is still very vulnerable so that bodes well for us being able to get pressure with four which is what our scheme is based around. You can't play man against this group of receivers but we almost always play zone anyways. Burrow is smart and accurate so he will find windows in zone and make plays, we aren't going to shut them out. Just have to pressure him enough to affect him and keep them in 3rd and long situations while bracketing Chase. The goal on defense IMO is hold them under 24 points.

 

On defense they have a very solid front four but Hubbard is unlikely to play and Hendrickson is playing with a broken wrist. Logan Wilson isn't a playmaker but he does a good job covering the middle. Their safeties are both very good. The weakness there is their outside CBs and luckily we are an offense that thrives throwing the ball to our WRs on the boundary so that's a great matchup. DJ Reader is arguably the best run stopper in the league so this is not a game where we will be able to lean on the run game as much. Since this is practically a playoff game Allen will not be shy about running the ball and that is a matchup problem for any defense we play. So for us the matchup advantages are outside WRs and Allen running as necessary.

 

On special teams not too much to say but the Bengals kicker has really been struggling lately. In a likely close game that gives us another decided advantage.

 

So the Ravens, Saints, Browns, and Chiefs all had pretty good run games against the Bengals.  Ravens and Browns are no surprise, that's their Thing.

 

Saints and Chiefs, that was a little unexpected to me.  Kamara ran for 99 yds on 19 carries with a 24 yd long carry - 5.2 ypc.  Taysom Hill and Shaheed basically broke 1 long run, but Kamara was evidently pounding the rock regularly against them. 

 

The Chiefs are a middle-of-the-league run team, but because they don't run very much.  They're tied (#7 through #12) in YPA.  My recollection is that the Bengals rushed 4 and flooded the middle of the field to shut down the KC passing attack.  Kelce was held relatively quiet, 4 receptions for 56 yds.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

This is basically a playoff game.  If the Bills are super bowl contenders then they at the very least will keep this to a one score game if they lose.  We are likely to either face the Chiefs again or Bengals in the playoffs.  Lets go Bills!

The Bills win and likely get the number 1 seed. The Bills lose and they are likely the 3 seed. That's about as big as an implication you can get for a regular seadon game. 

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6 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

Who do you think Troy will be drooling over more Allen or Burrow?

Allen.

 

Allen is more likable than Burrow. Burrow comes across as a rich fraternity boy. He would be a member of Omega Theta Pi in Animal House "Thank you sir may I have another"

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10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills win and likely get the number 1 seed. The Bills lose and they are likely the 3 seed. That's about as big as an implication you can get for a regular seadon game. 

Is it really that big?  Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl.  The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm concerned about how much preparation for the game will be affected by extreme weather. Bengals are a difficult test, but I do think outside of the victory over the Chiefs, the Bengals have largely benefited from lesser competition.

Bills have played the 9th toughest schedule, Bengals the 7th toughest.  They have 10 common opponents, [incl division 2 fers].  Bills have a +70 point differential, but 68 of those points are from the blowouts vs. the Steelers and Titans.  Teams are pretty evenly matched.

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34 minutes ago, boater said:

Allen.

 

Allen is more likable than Burrow. Burrow comes across as a rich fraternity boy. He would be a member of Omega Theta Pi in Animal House "Thank you sir may I have another"

Totally opposite. Troy gonna see himself most as joe burrow. Bias 

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43 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it really that big?  Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl.  The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.

 

 

I think it's HUGE to get the bye and home field advantage. It would give the Bills a substantial advantage. Of course, there are no guarantees. I think last year's results are last year's results. I don't think it means much this year. 

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11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I think it's HUGE to get the bye and home field advantage. It would give the Bills a substantial advantage. Of course, there are no guarantees. I think last year's results are last year's results. I don't think it means much this year. 

Yes , winning two games vs three games is a pretty big advantage. One thing is guaranteed, though ;last years results mean zero to this years results. 

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  • Simon pinned this topic

#1 seed gets rest AND one less game to have players hurt. 

Given the injury attrition rate lately—this aspect is really big and unique moment built into 2022.

6 hours ago, AlfaBill said:

Am I the only one that doesn’t like the Manning cast?

I like it when I don’t care about the teams/games. It’s newly entertaining for low quality, low emotion games. But NOT a fan when Bills are on!

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Burrow, for sure.  He is not a fan of Allen’s style.  He understands Burrow

Troy is old school QB lover. Doesn’t quite get mobility 

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4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it really that big?  Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl.  The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.

 Bengals were the #4 seed.  So were Rams.

 

Last year AFC champ was between #4 and #2 seed, NFC champ was between #6 and #4 seed

Superbowl, two #4 seeds faced off

 

2020 AFC #2 and #1 seed, NFC #5 seed and #1 seed,

Superbowl, #1 seed and #5 seed (won)

 

2019 AFC #6 seed and #2 seed, NFC #1 seed and #2 seed

Superbowl #2 seed (won) and #1 seed

 

Edited by Beck Water
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7 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I still think about that fumble and flukey catch on 4th &18  vs the Vikings... 

They win that game and we just have to go 1-1. Huge gm. Can't wait 


Me too but I’m sure Bengals fans think about that absurd opening day loss to the Steelers.

 

All of the top teams have a dumb ass loss or two. 

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1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

The one thing we really need to clean up is our special teams. Two straight abysmal games in a row. I would like to see us just kick some touchbacks (and Not try to cover), and eliminate the penalties on the returns. 

Wind in the last game was a big factor.  Bass was kicking line drives just to get it inside their 10.

 

Should be better this week with a "nice" forecast compared to the last few weeks.

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#1 seed gives the Bills the most time possible to try and get Hyde or Crowder back, although it is looking more and more like they are done.

 

Haven’t heard anything on either other than they are running off to the side of practice.

 

But it would get you to mid-January to get anyone back that you could. 

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