Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[US Egg]

40 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Mahomes tried to give the game away to the Broncos a few weeks ago when they played

No he didn’t.

[Casey D]

2 minutes ago, SUNY_amherst said:

This is a must win

Nope.  WW II was a must win per Marv levy, not a football game.  Especially when you will be at least a 3 seed.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Roy Hobbs said:

 

Neither has Gabe Davis

Anyone expecting Gabe to continue anywhere close to how he performed in the KC game is nuts.  Not the poster nuts, crazy nuts (though both could be considered the same).

 

That being said, he hasn't really come close to half of that production he had but is surpassing his previous years performances.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

We have been SB favorites for quite some time . The Buffalo Bills SB status and odds have been part of every nationally syndicated sports shows schedule for months. All of these talking head shows need conflict. Nick Wright has taken the role of the WWF heel for Bills fans and it plays off other talking heads. Skip Bayless loves the Cowboys and Brady, I don't think Shannon Sharp hates either. But somebody has to take the opposite side. I don't know what the expectation is, every show to unanimously anoint the Bills?

I find Nick Wright annoying, but I don't think he is far off here. QB play has not met the standard that JA17 set at the end of last regular/post season and early this season. I don't particularly care if he is fellating Josh and I don't get the sense that the Bills have not been given enough respect by sports journalism at scale.

Let's be a little realistic here with regards to Josh. There is no way that his performance vs KC is a bar setting. Josh can't  play like that every game. That's just not realistic unless you think he's a robot. Heck, the GOAT Brady played plenty of bad games throughout the regular season. 

 

Playoff football is a different animal with great pressure vs quality teams. Just ask Lamar...The greats preform at their best during critical moments such as the playoffs. I'm expecting Josh to be great in the playoffs. How great is debatable. One thing I like is the Bills are still winning when Josh plays below his standard. That's a sign of a very good team. This year it feels like Allen doesn't have to play Superman for the Bills to win. 

 

Go Bills!

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Nope.  WW II was a must win per Marv levy, not a football game.  Especially when you will be at least a 3 seed.

 

It's not a must win but our chances to reach the Super Bowl improve dramatically if they do win it. Assuming they don't screw up against NE.

[QLBillsFan]

For all the JA bashing by national media. And I agree he’s a bit up and down. Let’s look at stats for the past 6 games. TD’s/Int’s/W-L 

You would think JA has been not even close to these two. This doesn’t include his running threat. Also, his prime time stats this year are 18-3 and 6-0. I suspect he plays well and the Bills get home field with a win vs. very good Bengals team. 
 

JA     12-3   6-0

PM    12-4.  5-1

JB      15-6  6-0 

[Motorin']

18 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Anyone expecting Gabe to continue anywhere close to how he performed in the KC game is nuts.  Not the poster nuts, crazy nuts (though both could be considered the same).

 

That being said, he hasn't really come close to half of that production he had but is surpassing his previous years performances.

 

Wait, it's unreasonable to expect 3600 yards and 68 TD's this season for Gabe? 

[Southern_Bills]

27 minutes ago, SUNY_amherst said:

This is a must win

 

True, but there were 12 must wins before this one to make this one a must win...so it's all relevant. 

[JerseyBills]

19 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

For all the JA bashing by national media. And I agree he’s a bit up and down. Let’s look at stats for the past 6 games. TD’s/Int’s/W-L 

You would think JA has been not even close to these two. This doesn’t include his running threat. Also, his prime time stats this year are 18-3 and 6-0. I suspect he plays well and the Bills get home field with a win vs. very good Bengals team. 
 

JA     12-3   6-0

PM    12-4.  5-1

JB      15-6  6-0 

I don't see anyone really bashing him besides one of the ugliest dudes on TV. Nick Wright. To get views and clicks. Talk about a face only a mother would love. 

 

I just want to see Diggs get 12+ targets. Only has 16 the last 3 games. That's unacceptable.  Jefferson/Chase/Hill get that per game! Feed 14!!

 

Targets last 3 games

Diggs -16

Hill - 29

Chase - 39

Jefferson - 47

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by JerseyBills

[Southern_Bills]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Wait, it's unreasonable to expect 3600 yards and 68 TD's this season for Gabe? 

 

Definitely not, he's good for it. Going to be a wild 2 weeks.

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

Definitely not, he's good for it. Going to be a wild 2 weeks.

What would that stat line look like.

 

35 catches for 2800 yards.

 

He's gonna have more yards than there are on the field 😆

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

It's more Nick Wright overall being a heel for clickbait. Basically, anything that is a threat to Chiefs dominance sets him off. The man has argued that Josh is an below average QB and that Tua/Herbert/Lawrence should be in the Pro bowl over Allen

He’s a tv personality, that’s his job.

[RiotAct]

22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

What would that stat line look like.

 

35 catches for 2800 yards.

 

He's gonna have more yards than there are on the field 😆

14 99-yard drives per game, with Davis accounting for every single yard and touchdown.  Doable.

[ToGoGo]

50 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

For all the JA bashing by national media. And I agree he’s a bit up and down. Let’s look at stats for the past 6 games. TD’s/Int’s/W-L 

You would think JA has been not even close to these two. This doesn’t include his running threat. Also, his prime time stats this year are 18-3 and 6-0. I suspect he plays well and the Bills get home field with a win vs. very good Bengals team. 
 

JA     12-3   6-0

PM    12-4.  5-1

JB      15-6  6-0 

 

When it comes to Josh Allen, the media is 1 step forward and 10 steps back on every little thing. In context, it makes no sense, but when you have your head up your a** then Burrow and Mahomes are unquentionably a level above. 

 

Let's just win a SB and put an end to this. 

[boyst]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

OK OK ! We get it!

[Airseven]

1 hour ago, SUNY_amherst said:

This is a must win

 

Indeed, unfortunately.

 

It's the difference between #1 and #3 seed. The lynchpin to this season has been the Bills earning the #1 seed. Without it, they're a toss-up amongst 4-5 other equal contenders in the AFC. 

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

When it comes to Josh Allen, the media is 1 step forward and 10 steps back on every little thing. In context, it makes no sense, but when you have your head up your a** then Burrow and Mahomes are unquentionably a level above. 

 

Let's just win a SB and put an end to this. 

The difference is Mahomes and Burrow are consistent.  It's a fact.  They are both good QBs that have great games sprinkled in.  Allen tends to be either a great game or an average game (sometimes even a bad game).

 

Mahomes 3 best ratings: 144.2, 132.4, 129.6

3 worst: 85.2, 80.9, 78.5 (week 3 vs the colts)

 

Burrow 3 best: 138.2, 126.6, 126.0

3 worst: 85.3 82.7, 61.7 (week 1 vs the steelers)

 

Allen 3 best: 134.1, 128/9, 119.2

worst: 71.3, 68.4, 46.8(week 9 vs the jets)

 

They do have less bad games than Allen and that is the narrative.  I don't care for the stats about it because what he does as a football player can make up for what he's not doing as a QB but that's where it comes from.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

The atmosphere Monday night is going to be wild. 

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

I don't see anyone really bashing him besides one of the ugliest dudes on TV. Nick Wright. To get views and clicks. Talk about a face only a mother would love. 

 

I just want to see Diggs get 12+ targets. Only has 16 the last 3 games. That's unacceptable.  Jefferson/Chase/Hill get that per game! Feed 14!!

 

Targets last 3 games

Diggs -16

Hill - 29

Chase - 39

Jefferson - 47

 

 

I love Diggs just as much as the next bills fan, but this got me thinking about whether Diggs is a true #1, or if he is then Dorsey doesn't know how to scheme him open. Idk  This isnt to argue with anyone or to say I don't like Diggs but you can't tell me that's other receivers aren't ever being doubled and schemed for but they still get their touches. Just thinking out loud so to say 

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

It's not a must win but our chances to reach the Super Bowl improve dramatically if they do win it. Assuming they don't screw up against NE.

Well yeah.  Not exactly an epiphany.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

15 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I love Diggs just as much as the next bills fan, but this got me thinking about whether Diggs is a true #1, or if he is then Dorsey doesn't know how to scheme him open. Idk  This isnt to argue with anyone or to say I don't like Diggs but you can't tell me that's other receivers aren't ever being doubled and schemed for but they still get their touches. Just thinking out loud so to say 

I wonder if the Vikings were asking this after Jefferson’s 3 catch, 14-yard performance against the Lions.

 

This is like the “analysis” I’ve heard all day about how Allen isn’t quite Mahomes, or the Bills don’t have three WRs as good as the Bengals do, or how the Bills only scored 6-points in the first half against the Bears so what’s wrong.

 

 

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I wonder if the Vikings were asking this after Jefferson’s 3 catch, 14-yard performance against the Lions.

 

This is like the “analysis” I’ve heard all day about how Allen isn’t quite Mahomes, or the Bills don’t have three WRs as good as the Bengals do, or how the Bills only scored 6-points in the first half against the Bears so what’s wrong.

 

 

 

 

Maybe some where asking, but maybe they weren't. I wouldn't know I'm not a Viking fan not making hot take claims. I'm only analyzing based on some stats shown there. Truthfully it's all kind of subjective. 

[QLBillsFan]

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I wonder if the Vikings were asking this after Jefferson’s 3 catch, 14-yard performance against the Lions.

 

This is like the “analysis” I’ve heard all day about how Allen isn’t quite Mahomes, or the Bills don’t have three WRs as good as the Bengals do, or how the Bills only scored 6-points in the first half against the Bears so what’s wrong.

 

 

 

 

Yeah I really don’t care about rankings of players and stats. Is JA as good as whoever, what’s up with Diggs?? Don’t care. If Bills win Monday night ,they will be in an excellent position to compete for the SB!! The rest is just noise 🤷🏻‍♂️

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

Josh has been staying in the pocket giving up sacks where I feel he could escape if he needed or wanted. I think of at least 3 that he just took the loss instead of fight. I think that's by design 

 

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

The difference is Mahomes and Burrow are consistent.  It's a fact.  They are both good QBs that have great games sprinkled in.  Allen tends to be either a great game or an average game (sometimes even a bad game).

 

Mahomes 3 best ratings: 144.2, 132.4, 129.6

3 worst: 85.2, 80.9, 78.5 (week 3 vs the colts)

 

Burrow 3 best: 138.2, 126.6, 126.0

3 worst: 85.3 82.7, 61.7 (week 1 vs the steelers)

 

Allen 3 best: 134.1, 128/9, 119.2

worst: 71.3, 68.4, 46.8(week 9 vs the jets)

 

They do have less bad games than Allen and that is the narrative.  I don't care for the stats about it because what he does as a football player can make up for what he's not doing as a QB but that's where it comes from.

 

It's not about stats or ratings or good games or bad games. It's about WINS and overcoming any adversity that life throws at you. 

 

That's why Allen will go down in history above those two. Burrow and Mahomes would instantly collapse against the weight that Allen has had to carry the last 5 years. 

 

"Great players who need a change of scenery" we would be saying about them. "If only Mahomes had better WRs, instead he's the Barry Sanders of QBs in Buffalo". 

 

You don't appreciate what we have here in Allen. You think you do, but the truth is more intense than you realize. 

[The Wiz]

28 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

It's not about stats or ratings or good games or bad games. It's about WINS and overcoming any adversity that life throws at you. 

 

That's why Allen will go down in history above those two. Burrow and Mahomes would instantly collapse against the weight that Allen has had to carry the last 5 years. 

 

"Great players who need a change of scenery" we would be saying about them. "If only Mahomes had better WRs, instead he's the Barry Sanders of QBs in Buffalo". 

 

You don't appreciate what we have here in Allen. You think you do, but the truth is more intense than you realize. 

I don't huh?  Ok.  

 

I offered an objective view was all.  That's the truth.  

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Cinci is very good against the run (#7 overall, 104 y/g) and even better the last three weeks (#3 overall, 74 y/g)…Bills are still better against the run btw on the season, albeit slightly.

 

Cook and Singletary are both playing well, and have great YPC, I think cook is over 5.0….we’ll see. Dorsey has been more open to the ground game…as well as Allen more open to the check down.

 

One interesting thing about the Bengals defense is that they’re almost bottom of the league in sack percentage. Despite those two really good DEs, they just aren’t getting guys to the ground as often in passing situations as you’d expect. Pair that with allens ability to avoid rushers, and the fact they are bottom of the league in pass yards given up per completion, I fully expect Allen to be able to have his way with their secondary. 
 

Wish we had one more receiving option for Allen, instead of a first round CB who barely plays.

[YattaOkasan]

11 hours ago, SCBills said:

My (uneducated) guess at the positional breakdown given we rarely play the Bengals. 
 

OL - Bills (If Morse plays)

TE - Tie

WR - Bengals

RB - Tie

QB - Tie

DL - Bills

LB - Bills

CB - Tie

S - Bengals

ST - Tie

 

Next Gen Stats was scrolling a stat during MNF about how Burrow is killing teams with his WR’s getting 3 feet + of separation.  Game may come down to Bills DL vs Bengals OL and Tre White’s Progress / CB2 not being liabilities out there. 
 

Agree with everything but CB. NCB is a push but Jackson/Elam > Cam Taylor Britt and Tre > Eli Apple (hope he talks trash to Diggs)

7 hours ago, NickelCity said:

I'm guessing we'll got beasley for a few third down conversions.

Not sure about this game. Mike Hilton is a very good slot corner and I don’t remember Cole having good games against the Steelers the last 2 seasons. 

4 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

It's true that Josh Allen is not having the same year as he did as last year, and if that merits criticism, fine.

But it’s not true. He’s about to be the first player to have 4000+ passing and 750+ rushing in two consecutive seasons. 36/15 is very similar to 32/13. His passer rating and QBR are both up. How is it true that he’s not having the same year?  

Stats from pro football reference 

[Motor26]

23 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Wish we had one more receiving option for Allen, instead of a first round CB who barely plays.

 

Who would you have wanted to take at 23? The top 6 receivers were gone. 

[Fan in Chicago]

7 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

No I hear you.

 

The only teams that give me pause to say that we are better than are the Chiefs and Eagles. 

 

Cincinnati is uncomfortably close though. 

Bengals do look to be very close to the Bills overall but I think our D is better. On O, they have more weapons but Allen > Burrows so Bills have the edge.

I do expect this to be a close/good game. 

 

As for the Eagles, i know their record is excellent and they are a balanced team but you being from Philly, do you really (like really really) think they are good enough to reach/win the SB? Somehow I feel the 49ers D can stop their O in the playoffs and eke out enough Purdy Offense to beat them. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The difference is Mahomes and Burrow are consistent.  It's a fact.  They are both good QBs that have great games sprinkled in.  Allen tends to be either a great game or an average game (sometimes even a bad game).

 

Mahomes 3 best ratings: 144.2, 132.4, 129.6

3 worst: 85.2, 80.9, 78.5 (week 3 vs the colts)

 

Burrow 3 best: 138.2, 126.6, 126.0

3 worst: 85.3 82.7, 61.7 (week 1 vs the steelers)

 

Allen 3 best: 134.1, 128/9, 119.2

worst: 71.3, 68.4, 46.8(week 9 vs the jets)

 

They do have less bad games than Allen and that is the narrative.  I don't care for the stats about it because what he does as a football player can make up for what he's not doing as a QB but that's where it comes from.

Stats only tell part of the picture. Burrow and Mahomes have had their share of poor games too. I really don't agree with your premise that Allen has more highs and lows than the two. Since you pointed out those stats wouldn't you have to factor other variables in like weather, injuries, and strength of schedule? See where I'm going...

[PatsFanNH]

This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:

 

QB: EVEN.  Both are elite and can take over a game.

 

RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB

 

OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills

 

DL — even

 

LB — Cinci

 

Secondary - Bills

 

I predict a close game..  a winner by less than 3. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

[boyst]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:

 

QB: EVEN.  Both are elite and can take over a game.

 

RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB

 

OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills

 

DL — even

 

LB — Cinci

 

Secondary - Bills

 

I predict a close game..  a winner by less than 3. 

I don't Bills by +10. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

22 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

Who would you have wanted to take at 23? The top 6 receivers were gone. 

No idea. That’s what makes my job easier than theirs. In our role, I get to see what their decisions turned into and pass judgement. We, unlike them, have the benefit of hindsight. They have a much tougher job…that’s why they’re paid so well.

 

Idk about pick 23, but WRs went in the second round that have been impactful (Watson, Pickens, Moore) as well as other offensive players (OL) who likely could have contributed much more this season than Elam has been. They could have also moved up. Signed WRs, traded for one, etc. Its been well documented and discussed that many wish/believe that Beane and company could have and should have done more to help the O (again, we get the benefit of hindsight).
 

I don’t want to derail the thread to discuss draft picks, so I likely shouldn’t have included that last piece into my post related to the Bengals game. 

[BillnutinHouston]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The atmosphere Monday night is going to be wild. 

 

Well it is the Jungle.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

11 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:

 

QB: EVEN.  Both are elite and can take over a game.

 

RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB

 

OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills

 

DL — even

 

LB — Cinci

 

Secondary - Bills

 

I predict a close game..  a winner by less than 3. 

Mixon and company have not been good on the ground this year. They are not and have not been as successful on the ground as you might think. 
 

The Bills are averaging more yards per game as well and WAY more yards per carry…bengals are actually pretty poor in this area, almost bottom of the league. Yes, there is some QB running factored into this, but it still isn’t equal and definitely not in favor of the Bengals

[Sestak4ever]

Diggs is tremendous and will be one of the reasons we win a Super Bowl this year. He works as hard at his craft as anyone in the league and can make all pro db’s look foolish. 

[YattaOkasan]

27 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

Who would you have wanted to take at 23? The top 6 receivers were gone. 

Agreed and I think beane sees other teams spending big on WR lately and is waiting for the market to swing in his favor (Shakir in the 5th is a good example this draft). I think this upcoming year may be a good time to draft early as some talent may slip. 

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:

 

QB: EVEN.  Both are elite and can take over a game.

 

RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB

 

OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills

 

DL — even

 

LB — Cinci

 

Secondary - Bills

 

I predict a close game..  a winner by less than 3. 

RB: what?  You didn’t look at their stats did you. Bengals are one of the worst YPC and total yards. Their backs catch the ball but they are not as good running.
 

DL you are also underselling the bills. No Hubbard and Hendrickson getting out snapped by sample and Ossai last game means their DEs are not as good. Inside Reader is great but they don’t have a lot more after that.  

 

I see a lot of areas that we should be able to do well. Biggest concern is the gap at WR (or pass catcher to include RB/TE) may be bigger than the gap at any other position group.