In which case, the price goes up. $500k sounds like the breakeven deal number to me.
But boy it is a tough question you asked.
Let's say I chose the money, and 30 years later I am on my death bed. What will I feel? My guess is that I will think at the time that I was a fan for 64 years and my team has no ring to show for it, wasted a generational QBs talents and put my emotions though the wringer year after year with no payback. At that point, before death, I will regret having chosen the $500k.