So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.
Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.
I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script. I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.
So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era. The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."
I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.
Daboll:
2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive
2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive
Dorsey:
2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.
2023: 4/10 - Dorsey fired
Brady
2023: 2/7 - Brady took over after Broncos
2024: 3/7 - so far
So really when you look at the numbers:
Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%
Dorsey - 38%
Brady - 35.7%
So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.
Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.
IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching. Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)
2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)
2024: 3/6
Reid: 45%
So what say you?