Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Means absolutely nothing. 

 

Means something...it means the Bills are a better team.

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game.  Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)?  I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye).  As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better. 

 

He likely has his snap count increase as long as he got through it without issue.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Bills didn’t do anything out of the ordinary to stop Jefferson, and he became the reason they came back in the 4th-Quarter.

 

We’ve seen the Bills play standard against Kelce and just get torched all-game, especially when he was allowed to get free release. 

 

So is is the smart play to employ our standard Nickel, trusting the scheme, or step out of the shell to try and take Chase away with something new? 
 

It goes without saying that Rousseau going against the backup RT goes into the Top 3 most important matchups to win, to hit Burrow repeatedly. 
 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m probably in the minority but I get more pumped about a crazy road atmosphere then a home atmosphere.

 

 

I hear what you are saying, but give me crazy Bills Mafia 100% of the time

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills didn’t do anything out of the ordinary to stop Jefferson, and he became the reason they came back in the 4th-Quarter.

 

We’ve seen the Bills play standard against Kelce and just get torched all-game, especially when he was allowed to get free release. 

 

So is is the smart play to employ our standard Nickel, trusting the scheme, or step out of the shell to try and take Chase away with something new? 
 

It goes without saying that Rousseau going against the backup RT goes into the Top 3 most important matchups to win, to hit Burrow repeatedly. 
 

 

I agree. Rousseau can wreck this game

[BRH]

6 hours ago, purple haze said:

There a first time for everything.  At some point through the years McDermott will get his road playoff win.   Home is obviously preferable but if they have to play on the road they won’t be overmatched.  

I don’t believe Marv got his first road playoff win (it was in Pittsburgh after the Comeback) until after the Bills had already been to two consecutive SBs. Up to that point he had been 0-2 in road playoff games, having lost to Cincinnati in ‘88 and Cleveland in ‘89.
 

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No because one team is better than another.  It does take the 20% chance or so you have of losing away though if you have that bye week.  Plus, it gives your team time for banged up players to rest and prevents possible injuries from the first round game.  Also, there's a shot of a Wild Card team of upsetting the Chiefs and/or Bengals in the first round. 

 

The biggest benefit of the one seed is you're guaranteed not to have to play the Bengals or Chiefs in the Divisional round.  If we're the three seed we'd likely have to go through Cincinnati and Kansas City in their house to reach the Super Bowl.  This game is huge.

not quite…

 

If we win out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens next week, Cincy drops to 5 (Baltimore wins division) and we would host them in the divisional round if they, the Chiefs, and the Ravens all win on wildcard weekend.  Cincy would have to travel to either the Jags or Titans in the WC, while the Ravens would host LAC and the Chiefs would host whatever comes out of that mess fighting for the 7 seed. 

 

Anyway, we all know that when we get the 1 seed the trolls will be out in full force with “the two-week layoff will make them rusty” and “the other teams are staying sharp by playing” and other such canards.  Just be ready. 
 

One more thing.  Think about how much harder it is now than it was in the ‘90s.  Back then there were 16 regular season games, two byes and just five playoff teams.  Plus the scheduling was more random - we had eight division games (six of them against patsies), four non-conference games, and just four other games that depended on where we finished the previous year.  Now it’s six division games (and the AFCE is stronger now than it was then), four non-conference games, and seven games that depend on the previous year’s finish.  Those extra games in the last category are likely to make the schedule harder for a good team.  And the last game of the season now is usually a divisional matchup instead of a mail-in non-conference game. Given that and everything else that’s happened this year, 12-3 so far is pretty damned impressive. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BRH

[ChasBB]

On 12/26/2022 at 3:28 PM, Greg S said:

 

I want them to win every game of course but I really want this one. If they win at Cincinnati, then the #1 seed is theirs most likely. I don't want the Bills to have to travel to CIN or KC in the playoffs.

Patriots cannot be overlooked even if Bills take Cincy.  I think Bills need to win out because does not look like the Chiefs will stumble (but I think Vegas may give them a harder time than some may think).  Cincy could easily lose to Ravens final week, but the Bills control their destiny is the bottom line, so just keep winning and everything else resolves itself.

Edited December 28, 2022 by ChasBB
add content

[Doc Brown]

22 minutes ago, BRH said:

If we win out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens next week, Cincy drops to 5 (Baltimore wins division) and we would host them in the divisional round if they, the Chiefs, and the Ravens all win on wildcard weekend.  Cincy would have to travel to either the Jags or Titans in the WC, while the Ravens would host LAC and the Chiefs would host whatever comes out of that mess fighting for the 7 seed. 

 

Anyway, we all know that when we get the 1 seed the trolls will be out in full force with “the two-week layoff will make them rusty” and “the other teams are staying sharp by playing” and other such canards.  Just be ready. 
 

 

True but I doubt the Bengals lose to the Ravens at home.  Even if they did I think the Chargers or Dolphins (assuming Tua is playing) beat the Ravens in the Wild Card round.

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

So it's 50/50 this week between the Broncos vs KC? If so, I'll take KC and bet you a huge amount. I mean it's a coin flip as you say. 

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, ChasBB said:

Patriots cannot be overlooked even if Bills take Cincy.  I think Bills need to win out because does not look like the Chiefs will stumble (but I think Vegas may give them a harder time than some may think).  Cincy could easily lose to Ravens final week, but the Bills control their destiny is the bottom line, so just keep winning and everything else resolves itself.

 

"Just win, baby!" That's all, just win.

[PatsFanNH]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Mixon and company have not been good on the ground this year. They are not and have not been as successful on the ground as you might think. 
 

The Bills are averaging more yards per game as well and WAY more yards per carry…bengals are actually pretty poor in this area, almost bottom of the league. Yes, there is some QB running factored into this, but it still isn’t equal and definitely not in favor of the Bengals

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

[Aurelius]

14 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

Cut it any way you like to, you can’t take Allen out of the equation because he’s basically another running back out there.  He’s been rushing for 700+ every season.  He’s actually I think passed Michael Vick’s rushing totals in 5 years.  As odd as it seems, while the Bills seemed “inept” much of the season, Bills are in the top 4 right now in overall rushing stats.  A lot of that is also because James Cook is become a viable and moreso somewhat dangerous option there.  Where the Bills get you is they have a QB that can take off at any time plus 2 backs that are a threat to rush or catch out of the backfield right now.  No we aren’t a one man show like Derrick Henry but surprisingly enough have become a lot more effective than we thought we would be in the ground.  

Edited December 28, 2022 by Aurelius

[newcam2012]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

For Cinci, the RBs catch lots of passes. I believe they are in the top 5 in the NFL. Their west coast offensive scheme is based on rhythm and getting the ball off quickly. Burrows is near the top of QBs in releasing the ball quickly. Not sure what scheme the Bills D employs to stop Cinci. It will be a very tough task to stop Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Could be the best 3 WR combo in the league. WR Irwin whoever he is has been burning it up too. Burrow will make plays because he's elite. This game should tell us off the Bills D is legit. 

 

Conversely, I'm not sold on the Cinci D. The Bills are much more balanced and a very good offense. I believe Allen will be ready to play. I don't want to see an overhyped and poor Allen out of the gate. Seems to be a theme throughout his career. The Bills offense should have success against the Bengals. 

[Since1981]

Our d is going to need to keep them at a few 3’s (red zone d) to allow our O to score 7 (red zone o). That’s how this game is going to go. 

[Ray Stonada]

Burrow likes to take tons of RB check downs and throw 15-20 yard 50/50 balls to Chase and Higgins. Buffalo will have to move quickly and tackle well, and focus on breaking up passes rather than picks or hard hits on WRs. Hold the runs and check downs to 5 yards or less, and break up the 50/50 pass attempts, and the Bengals will not move the ball.

 

The Bills, by contrast, can beat you more different ways.  

[Greg S]

This has to be the most important regular season game the Bills have played in a long time.

 

Win and most likely get the #1 seed. Get WC weekend off with all playoff games in OP.

Lose and most likely get the #3 seed. Play LAC (most likely) on WC weekend. Survive that and they are looking at potential road games at CIN and KC to get to the SB.

 

Please win. I honestly believe if they win then they are SB bound. Lose and then all bets are off.

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

Cut it any way you like to, you can’t take Allen out of the equation because he’s basically another running back out there.  He’s been rushing for 700+ every season.  He’s actually I think passed Michael Vick’s rushing totals in 5 years.  As odd as it seems, while the Bills seemed “inept” much of the season, Bills are in the top 4 right now in overall rushing stats.  A lot of that is also because James Cook is become a viable and moreso somewhat dangerous option there.  Where the Bills get you is they have a QB that can take off at any time plus 2 backs that are a threat to rush or catch out of the backfield right now.  No we aren’t a one man show like Derrick Henry but surprisingly enough have become a lot more effective than we thought we would be in the ground.  

Excellent points. Like your Meditations as well.

[strive_for_five_guy]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

[nucci]

14 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Burrow likes to take tons of RB check downs and throw 15-20 yard 50/50 balls to Chase and Higgins. Buffalo will have to move quickly and tackle well, and focus on breaking up passes rather than picks or hard hits on WRs. Hold the runs and check downs to 5 yards or less, and break up the 50/50 pass attempts, and the Bengals will not move the ball.

 

The Bills, by contrast, can beat you more different ways.  

So basically, stop their offense and we win?

[eball]

5 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

 

Not sure about your percentages, but the extra week of rest and only having to play two games instead of three, with both at home, should be enough for anyone to see what a huge advantage it is...

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Not sure about your percentages, but the extra week of rest and only having to play two games instead of three, with both at home, should be enough for anyone to see what a huge advantage it is...

 

Should be, but some need more spoon feeding than others.

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

So it's 50/50 this week between the Broncos vs KC? If so, I'll take KC and bet you a huge amount. I mean it's a coin flip as you say. 

 

Maybe 6 dollars this time? 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

9 hours ago, arcane said:

In Chicago vs a vastly inferior team, a game in which none of us or the Bills really felt was out of control, he got a bit greedy and tried to get some MVP stats. It didn't work. He will not play like this with the 1 seed on the line. We will see peak Josh on Monday. 

 

That's my take on this... my wife is calling me a Josh Allen apologist right now but my guess is that she's tired of hearing about him from me LMAO

[ALLinALLEN]

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

[RiotAct]

9 minutes ago, ALLinALLEN said:

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

the driving bans are only in place in Cheektowaga and Buffalo still.  

 

The Bills players should have no problem getting to and participating in practice.

 

EDIT:  actually I just checked, looks like the Cheektowaga driving ban was lifted yesterday.

Edited December 28, 2022 by RiotAct

[ALLinALLEN]

4 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the driving bans are only in place in Cheektowaga and Buffalo still.  

 

The Bills players should have no problem getting to and participating in practice.

 

EDIT:  actually I just checked, looks like the Cheektowaga driving ban was lifted yesterday.

That's what I kind of figured. Yesterday would have been the first day of practice right? Just wonder if we're being hampered at all by that and didnt see any media saying otherwise. Thank you.

[RiotAct]

Just now, ALLinALLEN said:

That's what I kind of figured. Yesterday would have been the first day of practice right? Just wonder if we're being hampered at all by that and didnt see any media saying otherwise. Thank you.

for a MNF game I -think- it’s Wednesday through Saturday but I could be wrong on that?  I’m too lazy to go back and check the Week 2 practice report… lol

[ALLinALLEN]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

for a MNF game I -think- it’s Wednesday through Saturday but I could be wrong on that?  I’m too lazy to go back and check the Week 2 practice report… lol

Feel you're spot on with that lol

[GottaRun]

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

this is an awesome way of looking at it.  Biggest game of the season so far, for sure.

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

 

Yup. Playing 2 playoff games at home vs 3 with 2 of them on the road most likely. Biggest regular season game the Bills have played in a long time coming up.

[BuffaloBaumer]

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

... my wife is calling me a Josh Allen apologist right now 

Grounds for divorce?

[Franco_92]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

I've watched since 2005 and it's the biggest regular season game of my fanhood at least

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, ALLinALLEN said:

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

Yes they are but the first practice isn’t until tomorrow because of the Monday game 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

Maybe 6 dollars this time? 

 

Lmao!! 

[BRH]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

I would say this one was as big. 1990, Kelly out, Dolphins 11-3, Bills 12-2.  Winner almost certainly wins the AFC East and gets a first-round bye.  Loser gets the 4 seed and has to play in the wildcard round before a rematch at the winner’s place.  
 

This also had a revenge tint to it - not just because the ‘70s were fresher in everyone’s minds, but because the Dolphins had absolutely waxed us at Joe Robbie in September.  (Remember Bruce yelling at Marv for taking him out of the game?)
 

Anyway, we throttled them in Buffalo (sacking the previously nearly-unsackable Marino three times) and won the division.  We beat them again at home in the divisional round and then destroyed the Raiders en route to our first SB.  
 

Hoping for a similar outcome this time, except with the road team winning this week. 

This one is probably bigger, honestly.  The Dolphins and Raiders were our AFC competition that year, but I think we would have beaten them at their place in the playoffs. This year, while we can beat the Chiefs and Bengals on the road, I would prefer not to have to prove it twice each. 
 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BRH

[BuffaloBaumer]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

That team never finish the job so that is why I am indicating they currently this now becomes the biggest game.That team never finish the job so that is why I am indicating they currently this now becomes the biggest game.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

Thanks for the numbers. Well thought out but still its all relative and had variables that just can't be factored in. Such as weather, injuries, and match ups. That's really my point.

 

I believe your point is that the #1 seed is a huge advantage. I couldn't agree more. You are 100% correct. Playing one less game and being at home is obviously big! Anyone who thinks otherwise really isn't a knowledgeable football fan. With that said, it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl appearance or even a playoff win. Look at last year as can example. 

 

In concluding the #1 seed is a very big deal and advantage. Yet, if the Bills lose the #1 seed they still can represent the AFC. Each path is substantially different with different degrees of difficulty. Personally, I like the Bills chances of winning the AFC as the #1 seed. If they lose that seed it's very possible they might have to win in Cinci and in KC. I really don't like that. 

[The Wiz]

15 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Stats only tell part of the picture. Burrow and Mahomes have had their share of poor games too. I really don't agree with your premise that Allen has more highs and lows than the two. Since you pointed out those stats wouldn't you have to factor other variables in like weather, injuries, and strength of schedule? See where I'm going...

I absolutely agree on the other variables.  My point was more to the fact that the MVP voters aren't going to look at those variables.  They are gonna look at their final stats and maybe pick a few games to actually see him play and make their decision.

 

I have a hard time believing these people that are voting are doing all-22 breakdowns of every single game from the MVP candidates.  

 

And a someone else said related to another sport, most of these guys have a player in mind already and someone has to do something exceptional to change it.

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I absolutely agree on the other variables.  My point was more to the fact that the MVP voters aren't going to look at those variables.  They are gonna look at their final stats and maybe pick a few games to actually see him play and make their decision.

 

I have a hard time believing these people that are voting are doing all-22 breakdowns of every single game from the MVP candidates.  

 

And a someone else said related to another sport, most of these guys have a player in mind already and someone has to do something exceptional to change it.

Bingo. They’re not looking at them or at least not much. It’s not an MVP award anymore, it’s a best QB stats award. Easy as looking at stats, no real leg work or in depth analysis required. As pointed out , Mahomes has played almost every game in ideal conditions. That’s more than enough to account for a couple hundred yards over a season.