Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Hope for the best for the people of Buffalo.

 

I understand 30 people are dead

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agreed and I think beane sees other teams spending big on WR lately and is waiting for the market to swing in his favor (Shakir in the 5th is a good example this draft). I think this upcoming year may be a good time to draft early as some talent may slip. 

RB: what?  You didn’t look at their stats did you. Bengals are one of the worst YPC and total yards. Their backs catch the ball but they are not as good running.
 

DL you are also underselling the bills. No Hubbard and Hendrickson getting out snapped by sample and Ossai last game means their DEs are not as good. Inside Reader is great but they don’t have a lot more after that.  

 

I see a lot of areas that we should be able to do well. Biggest concern is the gap at WR (or pass catcher to include RB/TE) may be bigger than the gap at any other position group. 

 

Hendrickson snap count is because he is coming back from a broken wrist, not because he has played poorly. He has been very good this year.

[nosejob]

We need this win! Then wrap it up at home. Let WC weekend work itself out. Playoffs thru Buffalo is all that matters.

[Big Turk]

Bills given a 54.8% chance to win per ESPN FPI prediction 

[nosejob]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

Bills given a 54.8% chance to win per ESPN FPI prediction 

They gonna win....cause I said so....Vicky Valencourt.(sp?)

[Nitro]

Goes without saying the importance of this game.  Potential rain and moderate temperatures.  That adds to the drama.  If the Bills play smart, disciplined and mistake free football, IMO, they will win. I expect it to be close but the Bills hang defensively with the Bengals.  Allen and the offense can dominate that Bengal defense.  Patience Josh!

[finn]

3 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Goes without saying the importance of this game.  Potential rain and moderate temperatures.  That adds to the drama.  If the Bills play smart, disciplined and mistake free football, IMO, they will win. I expect it to be close but the Bills hang defensively with the Bengals.  Allen and the offense can dominate that Bengal defense.  Patience Josh!

If I'm the Bengals, I take away the deep pass, keep Allen contained in the pocket, and give him short- and mid-range passes all day. That takes away the Bills' best weapons (Allen running and throwing deep) and invites Allen to be patient, which is not his long suit. 

[Nitro]

3 minutes ago, finn said:

If I'm the Bengals, I take away the deep pass, keep Allen contained in the pocket, and give him short- and mid-range passes all day. That takes away the Bills' best weapons (Allen running and throwing deep) and invites Allen to be patient, which is not his long suit. 

This might be the medicine Allen needs.  I was in Chicago and that pass to McKenzie came my way.  That double team burned him.  Patience grasshopper!

[EasternOHBillsFan]

29 minutes ago, Nitro said:

This might be the medicine Allen needs.  I was in Chicago and that pass to McKenzie came my way.  That double team burned him.  Patience grasshopper!

 

He plays differently in big games like this.... I talked about this last week. He buckles down and balls out in situations like this. The UCL injury is the only consideration... it concerns me.

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree with everything but CB. NCB is a push but Jackson/Elam > Cam Taylor Britt and Tre > Eli Apple (hope he talks trash to Diggs)

Not sure about this game. Mike Hilton is a very good slot corner and I don’t remember Cole having good games against the Steelers the last 2 seasons. 

But it’s not true. He’s about to be the first player to have 4000+ passing and 750+ rushing in two consecutive seasons. 36/15 is very similar to 32/13. His passer rating and QBR are both up. How is it true that he’s not having the same year?  

Stats from pro football reference 

What I mean is how Josh Allen has played. I'm not saying he's having a terrible year.

 

Most of it has been his decision making. Some of his interceptions have looked really bad, and that wasn't the case last year.

 

I think that some of it has to do with play calling. Our short yardage pass options appear to only be running backs instead of wide receivers.

 

I am not complaining about Josh Allen at all. I think he is having a very good year, and he is largely responsible for the Bills record.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Are these guys even practicing this week? Sounds like no one can move in Buffalo still. 

[njbuff]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Are these guys even practicing this week? Sounds like no one can move in Buffalo still. 

 

I'm sure they will find a way.

[Richard Noggin]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Are these guys even practicing this week? Sounds like no one can move in Buffalo still. 

They don't practice in Buffalo, and most of them live well south of the city. 

 

I'll bet they're doing a lot better in OP than those in the Buffalo metro area. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

I'm sure they will find a way.

 

This is like a scrimmage against the JV after what they have been through. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

7 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

I'm sure they will find a way.

 

4 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

They don't practice in Buffalo, and most of them live well south of the city. 

 

I'll bet they're doing a lot better in OP than those in the Buffalo metro area. 

I hope so. But I think they will need some good live reps (not zoom reps) this week.  Just hope the weather cooperates here. 

[purple haze]

On 12/26/2022 at 11:47 AM, Greg S said:

 

Disagree. The Bills are winless on the road in the playoffs with McDermott, but they are undefeated at home. 

There a first time for everything.  At some point through the years McDermott will get his road playoff win.   Home is obviously preferable but if they have to play on the road they won’t be overmatched.  

[AlfaBill]

12 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Are these guys even practicing this week? Sounds like no one can move in Buffalo still. 

Was wondering the same thing

[Mango]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:

 

QB: EVEN.  Both are elite and can take over a game.

 

RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB

 

OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills

 

DL — even

 

LB — Cinci

 

Secondary - Bills

 

I predict a close game..  a winner by less than 3. 

I don’t think this will be like some of the KC/Bills battles we’ve seen. 
 

I think one team will either figure out the others offense/defense. Winner is decided by 10+ points. 
 

 

 

[Franco_92]

42 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

He plays differently in big games like this.... I talked about this last week. He buckles down and balls out in situations like this. The UCL injury is the only consideration... it concerns me.

You are right about this, and I worry about the UCL too, but...

We have had 2 big regular season games since the last big one, @ KC. In the KC game, he played as you described. He had issues between that game and the New England one, but New England was huge - they finally had some semblance of a normal practice schedule, and it was the start of a 3 game division stretch that would propel us back to the lead of the AFC east. Josh went into NE and took what they gave him, and was masterful, if not quite the electric Josh we are spoiled to expect every game. The Jets game was garbage weather, but he played quite well considering the defense and the weather, and I recall no turnover-worthy plays. Then Miami was for all of the AFCE marbles, and he was again masterful. 

In Chicago vs a vastly inferior team, a game in which none of us or the Bills really felt was out of control, he got a bit greedy and tried to get some MVP stats. It didn't work. He will not play like this with the 1 seed on the line. We will see peak Josh on Monday. 

 

Couple his game against Miami in the weather with that deep throw to Diggs called back at new england, and I guess I'm not too afraid of the UCL either

 

Josh's playoff performance was otherworldly. He was possessed. It sort of poisoned things for us. He will give that to us again, but it is exceedingly rare for any QB. All it does is give tards like Nick Wright ammo when he has a normal good-QB performance. 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hendrickson snap count is because he is coming back from a broken wrist, not because he has played poorly. He has been very good this year.

Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game.  Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)?  I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye).  As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better. 

[Since1981]

Wait until the bills team finds a “normal” week, mental, physical state. It’s like these guys have gone thru war together. Wait until they normalize a week!!

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

What an epic Monday night match up! Excited to say the least 

[newcam2012]

15 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it.  Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance.  This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage.  So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

[Wyobills89]

Can't wait to watch Josh and Logan go at it. Qb of the O vs Qb of the D. The seeding impact just man this is going to be a great game can't wait. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bills given a 54.8% chance to win per ESPN FPI prediction 

Means absolutely nothing. 

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

A completely reasonable approximation to get a rough idea of the impacts a bye can have on your chances

[Richard Noggin]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

[Franco_92]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

Well, this isn't true either 

[Richard Noggin]

15 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it.  Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance.  This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage.  So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

 

Of course, it would be important to compare this maths to the ACTUAL historical playoff results with respect to seeding. I'll bet it deviates from this model considerably. (Doesn't diminish the hypothetical, mathematical advantage of eliminating one more chance to be...eliminated.)

 

1 minute ago, arcane said:

Well, this isn't true either 

 

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Richard Noggin

[Franco_92]

9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Of course, it would be important to compare this maths to the ACTUAL historical playoff results with respect to seeding. I'll bet it deviates from this model considerably. (Doesn't diminish the hypothetical, mathematical advantage of eliminating one more chance to be...eliminated.)

 

 

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

No

My son will either be the best NFL quarterback to ever live, or he won't be. Those are two categories. Is there a 50% chance my son will be the best NFL quarterback to ever live? 

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, arcane said:

No

My son will either be the best NFL quarterback to ever live, or he won't be. Those are two categories. Is there a 50% chance my son will be the best NFL quarterback to ever live? 

 

There are more than the two outcomes you've chosen here. In a playoff football game, it is either win or lose. 

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

There are more than the two outcomes you've chosen here. In a playoff football game, it is either win or lose. 

That doesn't mean each team is equally likely to win lol 

 

I presented a perfectly legitimate binary operating under the same rules you outlined

I'll try another one. The poster is correct in saying that the odds of a team winning a given game aren't 50/50. If the Eagles played the Texans 100 times over the next two years, they would win substantially more than 50 of the games. That is what he's saying

 

Saying that the odds are 50/50 because only winning and losing are possible options is like saying that the odds of me passing a Harvard admissions test are 50/50, because it's a pass/fail test. Clearly my odds can vary based on how smart I am. If I am >150 IQ, my odds are probably significantly higher than 50%. If I am <100 IQ, my odds are significantly lower than 50%, even though it's "Pass or Fail" with no other options

Edited December 28, 2022 by arcane

[Chandler#81]

17 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

First off, the game isn't played on paper. Secondly, the Bills aren't better than the Bengals all through the roster. The Bengals WR roster is by far better than the Bills. 

 

Also, you just can't dismiss or not acknowledge that the Bengals are playing at home. Sure the Bills are a very good road team. Nevertheless, the Bengals home field is a pretty good advantage. FWIT, t's generally worth 2 or 3 points from a bettors perspective.

 

Chandler, this game is going to be a dog fight to the bitter end. The Bills need a very very good Allen this game. No bonehead INTs, use his legs, and be the elite QB we know he is. I suspect a Burrows at home will play well. The guy is a proven winner and he will likely succeed if it comes down to the final drive. Allen can absolutely do the same but it's much more difficult on the road. 

Well, you have a perfect record of never being right. WTH makes you think you are now? 🤦‍♂️

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Well it is the Jungle.

I’m probably in the minority but I get more pumped about a crazy road atmosphere then a home atmosphere.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Maybe some where asking, but maybe they weren't. I wouldn't know I'm not a Viking fan not making hot take claims. I'm only analyzing based on some stats shown there. Truthfully it's all kind of subjective. 

Definitely he is not seeing the number of touches he was.

 

First 9-games he went over double digit targets 6 times.

 

In the 6-games since, he’s been targeted 10+ times just once. 
 

Just listening to Dorsey’s press conferences, he just calls what he calls and doesn’t deviate off what he is seeing. 
 

The Bills seem to trust whoever is on the field equally and when the ball goes your way it’s your turn to make the play.

 

You can see this in Cook’s touches. By all measures he seems to be breaking out, but is he constantly going to see 10+ carries a game now? He hasn’t so far. 

[billsbackto81]

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

No because one team is better than another.  It does take the 20% chance or so you have of losing away though if you have that bye week.  Plus, it gives your team time for banged up players to rest and prevents possible injuries from the first round game.  Also, there's a shot of a Wild Card team of upsetting the Chiefs and/or Bengals in the first round. 

 

The biggest benefit of the one seed is you're guaranteed not to have to play the Bengals or Chiefs in the Divisional round.  If we're the three seed we'd likely have to go through Cincinnati and Kansas City in their house to reach the Super Bowl.  This game is huge.

[Boatdrinks]

22 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

Death by a thousand cuts is pretty much the Bills defensive philosophy to a T. Didn’t see that game , but I did see NE had a good chance to win late. That’s about what I expect here. A last team with the ball and some time on the clock wins type deal. Josh will probably be the difference win or lose. 

[billieve420]

25 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

Going to need to disrupt the timing and force Burrow to hold onto ball longer. Worry about the Bills defense sitting back and letting Burrows carve them up. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Going to need to disrupt the timing and force Burrow to hold onto ball longer. Worry about the Bills defense sitting back and letting Burrows carve them up. 

McD and Frazier are pretty good at coming up with defensive game plans that give them a great chance to win. They’ll be ready. Josh is going to determine if the Bills win this game.