Richard Noggin

Strongly disagree with Franklin's valuation on these draft boards, especially when adjusted for Bills-specific needs and values. He isn't some top half of the 1st rd WR prospect, but he very well could be a very late 1st rd pick or moreover an early 2nd. I'm thinking the Bills LOVE Franklin's speed, production, underrated all-around game, and best-in-nation success against press coverage. He's not a height/weight specimen (small hands, too, like McConkey), but he's taller than Diggs and they wouldn't be picking him where that's at such a premium value anyways. What he appears to be is a WR who excels getting downfield but also has short and intermediate juice despite his thin frame. He has excelled on the boundary against press, and he's had success when moved. His analytics are REALLY strong. No clue how he interviews, but I'm sure we'll learn more about that post-draft. I think the desire to wedge WRs into #1 and #2 boxes prevents many from looking at prospects based on what they DO well and instead has fans looking at them based on what they ARE (traits). Teams don't win superbowls because they have prototypical, tall guys at X, elite all-around guys at Z, and small, shifty guys at Y. That's just not how it has worked, historically, in the NFL. Superbowl-winning teams have guys that can PLAY.

Agree with much of what you share here EXCEPT I think the Bills definitely CAN "let Miami get Worthy." That would be some silly asset allocation for a team stacked with WR speed but lacking on both lines. No need to be determined to prevent that scenario. But to think the Bills would somehow let Worthy get past them and land in the laps of KC...THAT would hurt. Can't imagine KC giving up much capital to move up FAR for a WR with some other notable needs that line up with their current draft position (OL, DB, etc.), which would mean we let Worthy fall back to them and likely spent capital on moving up for a different WR (in a potentially historic WR draft). IF they trade up, it better be for a WR. And I really hope that would only be a smaller, Beaney trade up from 28 to 18 or even better, somewhere in the early 20s. Trading WAY up in a draft so loaded with potential prospects seems foolhardy.

Moved back a couple times to load up on day two picks. A draft like this can really bolster rotational depth and injury resilience. Franklin, Frazier, Kneeland, and Bullard can all contribute right away. The rest offer solid depth and pipeline richness moving forward.

The argument AGAINST this heavy day two/early day three draft would be a perceived lack of elite difference makers. I'd argue that they all end up contributing in some capacity in first three years, with the top 7 picks all factoring heavily in the Bills 2024 depth chart. Bills have definitely shown interest in top 3 picks. I think Coleman is a sneaky important pick at 123; Bills need someone legitimate to challenge/unseat Edwards at LG. The temptation in round 2 to pick an IOL is strong. This draft here is about long term roster and cap health. Which is how perennially solid orgs like GB, BAL, and PIT tend to handle the draft most years. But now how you captivate fans and NFL pundits.

Agreed on Daniels being QB#2, and moreover, if WAS goes with Maye instead (can't see it, but what do I know), then how could New England possibly NOT draft Daniels at 3? They aren't going to draft a generational WR to play with Zappe and Brissett. Waste a year of his rookie WR deal like that? Guy who basically enters the league as a turnkey WR1? That's bad drafting tbh. Unless they're trading up behind him with urgency to also grab a QB. Hill + Waddle + Worthy = WTF (or WWH: World War Hill) Agree though that Worthy could get drafted much earlier than most boards have him ranked. Darrius Heyward-Bey, anyone? Ruggs? (Raiders lol.) John Ross? Yes to Worthy for sure, although I'm doubting he's there at 28. Remember Allen with Foster? With Brown? With Diggs and Davis at times? With Sanders even for flashes? Josh Allen flourishes with deep threat WRs, clearly. Possibly where the reported Troy Franklin interest comes in. He can run all the routes but excels getting downfield, and won't be off the board at 28 for sure. The last two years the Bills haven't really had that speed element, and we've watched Allen scuffle more and get impatient at times. There is more to to the dysfunction than a lack of WR speed, but I think we can all agree that Allen looks great with a burner on the boundary. (Allen also had prime Beasley moving the chains when he had reborn John Brown stretching coverages, so he did both things well. I really just think Allen needs targets who excel at different levels, like any QB. And when he has that, he can be legendary. The Bills have recently lacked that ability to threaten defenses at every level.)

Mostly agree with this thinking, with one adjustment: the Bills NEED a 3rd S who can play meaningful snaps in 2024. Need. How many S saw the field last season? Must have at least a solid 3rd guy and would be ideal if he was someone who could take over a starting role in 2025. (Maybe Cam Lewis is the 3rd S, but he's probably also the 2nd slot CB as well and maybe also 5th boundary CB. I'd like someone ahead of him at S please.) The draft noise machine gets a bunch of guys wrong each year, but where is the evidence that BTJ could be one of those guys this year? I haven't seen/heard it yet. Open to the idea, though. (I personally think Worthy could go surprisingly early, maybe ahead of Thomas?) Is that really a disconnect? If he's generally a 2/3 projection with upside, and goes in the 4th, then isn't that a steal? Maybe not a monumental steal, exactly, but good value nonetheless? Some legitimate reasons here to dig deeper on the prospect's tape and habits and general makeup. However, LSU has historically fielded multiple future starting NFL WRs several times. The last time LSU was stacked at QB+WR, two of those WRs ended up being LEGIT NFL dudes. The time before that, there were also two NFL starting WRs on the same team. Maybe that's why people aren't being more critical of BTJ. Or maybe he's got serious talent paired with explosive SEC production. Again I'm wondering who else is putting this kind of criticism out there? Would love to read it. I lack the expertise and hubris to judge these prospects beyond identifying the guys I'd like to see on the Bills. I'm meh on Thomas tbh. Would prefer Worthy or Legette or even Coleman (which goes against my better judgment) if he falls.

Part of why Bills social media "team" is kinda awesome. They get Gen-Z. They get Josh Allen. At first, I actually heard my inner voice begin to wonder why Allen wasn't mentioning any offseason "football work"...right as the satire became evident. I'm not proud of my boomer-y tendencies to judge others (I'm Gen-X, but we're definitely a generation straddling the new world of too much information and the old world of too much belief).

He seems to have the physical traits of a 1/2, but the college production of something closer to a 3/4. Alas, the gap between is why the draft is as much "art" as it is "science."

Interested if you prefer your draft or mine? Not competitively. Just which haul do you think will be more impactful short and long term? Also, you could consider this one I just ran with where I let it fall more organically (whereas above I forced the issue and spent future assets. Possibly a better haul, depending on your perspective. Doubling up on the Washington WRs is kind of cool, not to mention the overall roster depth and competition added. Guess I prefer the draft below to the one I posted moments ago lol.

4 picks in top 88. Light. Lean. Mean. (Don't love the limited haul, but do love the talent added. Those 4 picks in first two days should be difference makers.)

Paywall content? AND no Franklin or Legette in top-10? Fascinatingly contrarian/cynical view of two prospects with otherwise strong advanced numbers and notable (but opposite) physical profiles and historic production. I admit to thinking Coleman could be a rare guy, like Josh Allen, who defeats the analytics community's "math" at the next level. For WR testing considerations, why shouldn't scouts/analysts be devaluing the 40 in favor of the gauntlet? The gauntlet drill might be emerging as an increasingly valued "game speed" indicator, and has a notable champion for its validity, in Puka Nacua. Turns out, Coleman's combine profile/testing overlaps with and actually outperforms Nacua. If Coleman ends up producing at a level equal to or above the 2024 WRs drafted before him, then we'll undoubtedly see an immediate, system-wide elevation of the combine gauntlet drill. The major red flag that persists for Coleman is Yards per Route Run: he and AD Mitchell both have brutal YPRR, and Coleman can't fall back on Mitchell's 4.3 testing. But I'd argue that Coleman is a stronger, more determined athlete overall who is more likely to continue to improve his game. Franklin's bad combine has him way down on the general WR prospect sexy scale, but his college numbers are forever way UP at the top of the class. Kind of unrelated: check out Khalil Shakir's top-5ish explosivity (depth/target x YAC) comps last season

Potentially, he does. Or at least into the very back end of the 1st round. Some teams won't even consider him. Jaelen Philips is a fascinating comp. Went early-ish in 1st and hasn't been healthy enough to justify the investment (despite obvious flashes when he HAS been healthy).

Effectively traded UP in next year's first round (Tenn) by trading BACK into this year's 2nd and then UP higher into both 2nd and 3rd this year. Got a LOT of offensive prospects (at STRONG values) while still adding much needed defensive depth/contributors. This draft emphasizes what most fans want it to: OFFENSE. What would we think of adding JPJ and Worthy and Pearsall in first two days (when we only had 2 picks to begin with)? And then a bunch of early day three depth dudes on both sides of the ball. Trading back always ends up being the most rewarding total haul, even though it involves voluntarily surrendering a pool of awesome prospects to other teams and then painfully watching those players get selected one-by-one ahead of our later pick. Edit: 1st rd trade-back

Hill was a bit of a RB in college, wasn't he? Definitely short, but not small. Well-built dude. Worthy is slighter for sure, but won't play in the NFL at that reduced, record-breaking (by design) weight of 165lbs. I'd guess he's closer to 175/180 his rookie season. Also agree that Polk is intriguing. Heck, so is McMillan for that matter.

Agree on Thomas Jr as high ceiling trade-up target. AD Mitchell, on the other hand, is all blue-chip traits but Busch League process. Would think Legette's upside, resilience, and physicality make him a much better fit for what Brady wants to do. But based on what's been said about needing to add explosive plays to the offense, which we can pretty much all agree with, my money is on Worthy or Franklin. Problem is, the Bills need BOTH a big boundary specimen AND an explosive deep threat. Trading up for Odunze or Thomas could fill both holes at a premium cost, whereas what's left after them (omitting Mitchell due to his lack of football character) is an assortment of more specialized prospects. I think Worthy or Franklin make sense as downfield threats, and Legette, McConkey, and Polk make sense as more well-rounded prospects. Coleman is an outlier in that his analytics are AWFUL, but for some reason (including his best-ever combine gauntlet) he seems like a sleeper. Walker is a talented enigma who might not be a good football player at the next level. Pearsall has flashed serious ability, but his analytics don't project well outside at the next level. That still leaves, Corley, Cowing, Baker, Wilson, Wilson, McMillan, Rice, etc. In a potentially historic WR draft pool, the Bills NEED at least one top-3 depth chart prospect, if not two top-4 guys.

You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.)

Love the first two paragraphs calling for more fluidity/flexibility in how we label WR traits, ESPECIALLY in light of how E-P passing concepts specifically seek to muddy up all that static, pedantic defining of individual roles. Each guy needs to be able to execute each route/responsibility in order for the offense to really hum. As for the bolded, I'm of two minds. On one hand, yes the Bills had fallen in love with WR pre-snap motion where Gabe Davis (or sometimes Sherfield) very obviously motions/reduces down into box with the intent to run block...and they need a guy who can still do that effectively. On the other hand, that was insanely predictable (think Davis' motion timing on own-goal-line backed up QB sneak against Vikings, or basically every other time he motioned to condense the formation -- minus that early TD play against Rams in 2022 NFL opener on the road at LA). There is a role for a run-blocking WR in this offense, FOR SURE. Might be part of why moving on from Diggs was palatable: he lacked that flexibility and physicality? I'd like to see what Brady's offense looks like with truly interchangeable WRs. WRs who can run after catch and put in an honest blocking effort while also being able to separate downfield. That's the E-P dream scenario. Ignoring all that, Xavier Worthy represents a skillset and downfield threat that our current WR room lacks. McD and Beane have both mentioned a need for "explosive" passing plays. He's better all around that many casual fans realize, and in my opinion, offers blue-chip traits (long speed and explosivity) with enough else (hands and separation skills) to attract a GM like Beane. Allen can benefit greatly from a downfield threat like Brown, younger Diggs, younger Sanders, sometimes Davis, and whoever is next. We're missing that piece just as much, if not more, than we're missing a WR who can block. Maybe Xavier Legette does both?

That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts... ...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills.

And Kelly was hurt. Belief was low. We often forget how small/stretched the local ticket market really is for Buffalo, compared to other NFL cities, and especially with respect to affluence. Also, I'm not sure traveling NFL tourism was much of a thing yet. Green Bay's small market solidarity is a solid counter to this line of thinking (they would never have an un-sold-out home playoff game), but there is an old school, generational loyalty and exclusivity to those seats in that community that I'm sure limits how many opposing fans sneak into Lambeau for a given game. FATIGUE/FRUSTRATION was a real thing in this 90s example, as it has become again the last two seasons in Orchard Park. 2022 was STRESSFUL in that stadium, and the weather was hilariously bad when compared to every other effing day during each week. From Halloween weekend on the vibe was WAY off. Which was partially influenced by Vikings, Steelers, Packers, and Bengals fans being loud enough to make a difference. That never happened in the 90s run, that I recall. I'd guess that continued price hikes have something to do with the increase in out-of-town fans. Eventually one has to orchestrate a time-share or sublet arrangement to make the financials work. I'm sure the majority of lower bowl seats behind the visiting bench at this point are renewed primarily for profit. Just wish more fans would look for ways to geographically limit WHO buys their seats on the secondary markets and/or seek buyers more privately/locally.

To paraphrase a Louis CK bit: OF COURSE...season ticket holders are allowed to sell their tickets. Of course. It's become over-priced corporate sports entertainment, a luxury commodity, and subject to the market. BUT MAYBE...selling tickets for games that end up being overrun with visiting team fans (Pitts, Dal, KC...any NFC North or AFC East team tbh) is a little traitorous or at least disadvantageous to the fanatic cause.

True that YAC hasn't been a big part of Buffalo's offense since E-P was installed by Daboll and run by Allen. BUT, if we zoom in on Brady's offense since taking over last season, and especially down the stretch, I think we see an increase in screens and NOW routes to the boundary, and almost definitely an increase in YAC as a % of overall passing yards. (I like posting analyses/claims based solely on my recollections of the past season, without doing any research first. Not because I'm lazy (I am lazy, of course), but because I like seeing if my contemporaneous observations (half the games observed live--which means mostly cut-off from replay and informed commentary) hold up under scrutiny. You know: growth mindset, process-based humiliation.)

That's a really cheap trade-up into the top-10, isn't it?

LFG

You managed to grab BOTH the big-time analytics red flag WRs in first 33 picks!!! Cheers to that kind of conviction. (I actually think Coleman could be a dude with a decent QB.)

Traded back one pick in the 1st and still got crazy DE value. Then used late 2nd I'd acquired in trade-back with next year's 3rd to get back in at 50 to grab Legette before he's gone. Plus Jenkins at 60? Those are all difference makers, ideally. The RB, at least one of the S picks, and the IOL all should provide immediate rotational depth. I'd have preferred to grab a 2nd WR prospect, but alas.