Richard Noggin

Does James Cook project as a guy who will physically hold up with a higher enough workload to justify the big extension he seeks, year after year? Does he project as a guy who will dramatically step up his pass pro reads and physicality so he can stay on the field enough to justify the $$? Will he continue to improve the concentration issues: unforced drops and ball security concerns? Lots of questions. The bolded is the core of this debate. In 2026, is a RB room taking up ~15M cap (Cook on a reasonable, friendlyish first year of his extension, plus Davis and Johnson) that much better than a room taking up ~$6M (Davis, Johnson, and day 2/3 rookie)? Maybe Johnson is gone in this scenario? Not to mention how Cook progresses and what they owe him in future years; Cook's number would have to count more fully against the cap eventually, and that could be about when he's already breaking down or falling off. His brother didn't last long into his 2nd deal, as we all know. Less mileage on this Cook, though. It's a fascinating question. I think I know Beane's most likely answer.

If established, starting NFL vets (minus evergreen speed freaks like Darrell Green) are demonstrably slower after several years in the league, doesn't that legitimately deprioritize combine and pro day 40 times overall? Modern pre-draft speed training isn't exactly correlated with on-field impacts. Losing weight and training 3-point get-offs to trim hundredths off your 40 isn't exactly preparing these rookies for the rigors of an NFL campaign. The fact that NFL vets are potentially several tenths slower than their younger counterparts actually proves that 40 times are arbitrary, provided those vets are still legitimate starters. One can run a "meh" 40 but still have more than enough speed. NFL history is filled with 4.5+ guys who consistently dominated.

Lot of talk about 40 times in this thread. I get that it's not a useless data point, but it's also arbitrary and blunt as an evaluation and projection tool. The 10 yd splits + overall 40 time + agility times + explosion numbers + gauntlet top speed (wink) = a more holistic and comprehensive measurement. So basically, RAS lol. I've seen 4.5+ guys make defenders look like they're standing still, and we've seen 4.3 guys have difficulty getting behind anyone. It's part of the puzzle, but not so meaningful outside draft evals.

Cook is very dynamic with the ball in his hands, and has consistently improved in his career. That being said, you can't just say "Pay the man" without acknowledging that "the man's" publicly stated AAV expectations ($15-20M) are unrealistic and would be unwise for the Bills to agree to. I think Cook's running style mirrors his public personality in that it looks too relaxed and loose to be taken seriously by many observers. That dude is so much faster than he looks, in part because of how loose, and low, and forward-leaning his stride and posture are. He destroys angles and makes the field look a lot bigger than it is at times. All while seeming to glide about. Compare it to Pacheco, who is a tight, explosive spaz as soon as he gets the ball. High knees and chugging arms and head. That dude looks like he's doing more than he is, whereas Cook looks like he's doing a LOT less than he is.

The poster above you (and below this) has a believable theory on that juxtaposition. Also, Allen was working with a lesser supporting cast. The expectation was for significant regression, and instead the offense improved.

Can confirm.

When defensive players (mostly safeties) bulk UP over time to essentially line up closer to the LOS (as LBs), they are trying to get just big enough to hold up on the 2nd level without losing their presumed speed and agility advantages over naturally larger players. Plus they would be bringing heightened ball skills and experience in space/coverage, allegedly. To ask a pass rush specialist like Solomon to now learn how to backpedal and strafe, while learning complex coverage drops and route recognitions and more, seems counter productive. He's not super tall or heavy for a McD DE, but he is strong and long and best suited to attack the LOS. I've shared upthread that I think he could be a great fit as an odd-front rush OLB or someone who otherwise often lines up outside TEs. Can he carve out a role in this defense as a sub-package pass rush specialist?

Accuracy/efficacy is not nearly as important as ensuring LLMs are intrinsically embedded in ALL digital products. It's entirely possible that Strong could be initially better suited to the boundary role opposite Benford. And/or the Bills could platoon 2 or even 3 guys extensively. Back in the early McD years, they rotated heavily opposite Tre White.

"Disruptors" ... lol of their own organizational cohesion Legal judgments are not always germane to League judgments, however. "Letting the legal process play out" is mostly about PR. Teams and the league can punish players independent of any criminal or civil consequences. For better and for worse, I suppose.

Agree with both sentences, but also I REALLY don't think McD is likely to field an offense that throws at such a high % unless they're behind a lot more often than anyone would like to see. Would be super fun to just see Allen unleashed now like he was to some extent back in the Daboll days. Very unlikely, though.

Never.

No, no...his dad is Jack Nicholson.

Genuinely appreciate when things are spelled out for me. Sometimes we don't know what we don't know. Also, when Cook's deal is reported as a 4 year, $5.8M deal, that ramps up the compassion for a guy. The fact that he's realistically expected to make significantly more than that figure, works against the purposes of including that total in these offseason reports. (Not that $5.8M over 4 years of employment should elicit a ton of sympathy from working stiffs like many of us.)

Mmm...this reply makes my tummy feel all warm.

Fascinating that Cook's 2025 $5.3M salary (+$75k workout bonus) accounts for ~92% of his 4 year rookie contract's overall reported $5.8M value... He's on track to have earned just shy of $10M when he becomes eligible for FA in 2026. Why is his deal reported the way it is (on Spotrac)? ONLY guaranteed $ being accounted for in published valuation? Even in recent news, his 4-yr deal is reported to be under $6M. What the heck?

Hancock and Strong will both need to show value on STs, I suppose, to justify my weird confidence that they are both a real part of Buffalo's plans moving forward. Especially for Hancock if he's replacing Lewis (who was a reliable STs contributor). There is also a universe in which both Hancock AND Lewis make the team, with one focusing more on NCB and the other focusing more on S. That would mean Codrington does NOT make the team, I'd assume. The two suspended DL allow for extra bodies elsewhere during the first 6-7 weeks.

No way they franchise Cook IMHO. Unless they're super confident in finding a trading partner. To franchise James Cook, after he reluctantly soldiers through his contract year, would be to invite distraction and disruption. The comp pick value could very well be fair enough compensation without the headaches.

I see Dorian Strong as a relative lock, personally, barring injury or very unforeseen flop. Tre White I could even see agreeing to go to the PS to help the Bills secure a young prospect like Strong on the roster. But knowing that Alexander is unlikely to play for Buffalo in 2025, I'm thinking White simply replaces him in your depth chart and Strong beats out Ingram and Jackson. Hancock is also a lock, but as NCB, DB, or S?

Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career). The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth.

Rodgers DOES seem to me like the perfect QB to maximize Metcalf, in that he throws elite slants, boundary fades, and back shoulders. Rodgers will wear out single coverage if he's got a legit "#1" he syncs up with. I don't know how much RPO Arthur Smith intends to implement, but that seems like one way to give Rodgers and Metcalf the stage to shine. (Also relies on a decent running game; stay tuned there.) Am I remembering correctly that Rodgers historically hates pre-snap motion? I'm curious how that aligns with his OC, and how ANY contemporary NFL OC could justify LESS pre-snap motion these days. I get that simplicity can allow a team to play freer and faster, but I believe you gotta try to give your guys some easy reads and manufactured advantages whenever possible. (Remember when Pittsburgh's last franchise QB eventually hated being under center and running play-action off of being under center, because he didn't like to turn his back to the D? How did that serve Pitt's offense down the back stretch of his career?)

Liked this bit from Matt Parrino's recent report: Coleman seems like a guy who responds to/needs hard coaching. Humble and hungry. The social media physique police will appreciate Keon's hard work so far this offseason. Seems like the local pundits are also noticing some on-field growth this Spring. Let's hope it translates.

Solomon might be better suited to see the field in an odd-front OLB role or more of a wide-9 alignment. The learning curve would be a lot flatter for him. Our system/coaches greatly prefer long, stout, 3-down types. Solomon IS actually super long-armed, but he obviously ain't tall for the position.

I agree with the sentiment. Just wait for 2026. He'll get more snaps this year, provided he shows growth. And then in 2026 he'll be the returning workhouse sharing reps with a rookie and Johnson, most likely. The Bills are 100% better in 2025 with Cook as part of the team. You're not questioning that, are you?

That was a helluva heady, hustle play.

The Bills are better with James Cook as part of the team, without question. He might not be worth $20M AAV, but he's worth what he's getting paid in 2025 for sure. So hopefully he does the smart thing and reports for camp eventually. Having another great season would get him closer to his dream of a massive payday. Simple math. Sucks that Hard Knocks has this pre-loaded contract drama to harp on relentlessly.