YattaOkasan

Damn thats impressive. someone should make McDaniels a head coach. Im sure he would do great, especially his offenses.... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/McDaJo0.htm?__cf_chl_f_tk=Drjn_JlH7IXXKqCK.j7vZgQXv3hS2FlWn7d4oyAFfYM-1782934203-1.0.1.1-LMBfoKwPyICTeaq_OwULEzpPDS7aYcAG6Tm9xs62rkQ he really hasnt led a top 10 passing offense without TB until last year, which i get to a degree. But you should point to his entire coaching history if you want to convince me hes a QB whisperer. that was the reason he got the Den, LV and IND (lolz) jobs. I didnt see an update to this note from schatz but wow were the defenses they played also super not good based on DVOA, so i will miss mcdaniels (assuming he gets an HC job somewhere else).

They get SEA and we get LAR. I think that evens it out a bit.

Agree. I think last year it was understandable that you dont exactly know what you have with Hawes as a blocker and receiver. Now that hes demonstrated he can be an A+ blocker and more effective than Gilliam as a receiver it made it easy to let Gilliam go (though i still will miss him for teams). I agree 12 gives the ability to do all things; could even do all formation things and go spread.

agree most of the league uses 11. It struck me as odd cause we ran so well and we were in those punch you in the mouth formations. thats how i got to 22 personel. that should give you hope that we will go heavy 13%! Half the league didnt run that personnel 13 times the whole year let alone 13%. Also top 10 in 21 with a gap right after us. we were in big sets a lot with a full back. likely that become hawes and its 12 personnel.

i only see 2 games where it could be argued the run defense cost us (Miami also 3 TOs too and ATL also 2 TOs). Of our other 4 losses only 1 had over 100 yards rushing (108 to HOU, also 3 TOs). So i would say its not about stopping the run its about stopping the TOs. Undefeated with no TOs, 3-1 with 1 TO, 2-5 with 2+ TOs. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2025.htm Agreed. This was how McD wanted the front 7 to play so I think its smart (sorta Leonhards style so may it was the hiring) to keep it similar given the front 7 players we retained. 61% puts us very middle of the pack for the league (13th), and thats with Kincaid being managed and missing 5 games. Though i agree with your overall points about us using more 12. Interestingly we were clearly top in 22 personnel at 13.3% (2nd was <9%). Fun personnel web site. https://sumersports.com/teams/offensive/personnel-tendency/?personnel=11

Yes its for sure biased with regard to draft capital (agree it doesnt do well with trades). I still find it interesting. And giving those 3 teams a high draft grade just means they got better than most which doesnt matter much cause they so far behind to begin with. Everyone by nature of being at different points in team evolution is drafting for different needs, so its never gonna be that helpful to compare across the league but does seem to be interesting comparing a team across evaluators. Not knowing how to grade the Bills is pretty much everyone cause theres a bigger spread in draft grades than almost any other team.

Fun page for RAS on the team, great addition by Math bomb (though the gui could be better). https://ras.football/buffalo-bills-ras-team-page/ wish he would add a standard deviation column. Bit weird cause the data is chunky, but my eye test of the figure also confirms we had a draft with a lot of varying opinions (no other with multiople D's until the very bottom, but similar A grades as teams ranked around number 10). Seems like the consensus for our draft is who know (similar to TBD).

So good to see him back to his old self. Think he needs it a bit with the way he grinds.

Thanks. Had looked at these myself. Is there a way to juke it to change that from a TD to 2nd and goal from the 2 with 25 seconds? a TD wouldnt be assured but preventing a TD was also not assured (I have seen a fair number of prevent defense fail to stop a TD when trying to stop a FG). another fun hypothetical for this situation. What if were down 7 points? do peeps think we take a knee there? And for the record I am not a McD/Beane hater. I just love a good counter intuitive situation (going backwards to go forwards in this case).

I think we can get pressure on Bo just not get him to the ground. Hes got a 19.1% pressure % which is middle of the pack, he is this years escape king with only the 6 sacks you mention above. This is notable because his passing stats nose dive under pressure (hes below average relative to other QBs under pressure) per Joe Marino.

Yes they have used the fake bubble screen and then screen to Ty Johnson on 2nd and long a lot this year. It has a very high success rate from my recollection. I expect we will see that play Saturday. But no havent seen a traditional RB screen in a minute, and agree with the unquoted poster that it would be a good time to use one (theres a preseason gilliam play for 19 yards vs the giants i wanna see again but cant find video; 11:55 in the 2nd quarter). I also like our RBs just getting out on leak routes or sprint outs after a fake handoff. We have done those routes a lot and hopefully Josh keeps taking that easy money cause I think we can have success in the middle after we get past the first level.

Def a weird space. First half this seems like a no brainer. dont give them the ball back risk is super low. Im not really interested in how it looks in hindsight. whats the decision to optimizing winning. Youre probably right about all those things but as a case study into counterintuitive thinking its fascinating.

Big diff between 4th and 1 false start and a 2nd and goal false start. Notably the number of plays you get to run if you dont make it on the next play. Also as you allude to the number of TOs. Of course theres a possibility of something going wrong, but scoring also has many possibilities that could go wrong that aren't being considered in your post. When making the decision, those need to be considered as well (a huge Kick return, which is pretty much negated if you only give them 20 seconds) that can also lose you the game. We need an objective measure based on harm (bigger for things prior to scoring) and likelihood (bigger for things post scoring). They werent prepared which is to say they didnt know all the variables so Im very fine with the decision they made. But with time to consider everything, how strong is the case for taking a knee? I think its pretty strong.

I really wanna be objective for this. How rare....? I looked a bit and didnt get great results. Need to to take some of those AI prompt classes. How many times a year does a team take a 3 pt lead (on first down none the less) with a short yardage TD. Doesnt feel like more than once or twice a year? The play in the Jax game you reference was from the 2 and combined with getting > 2 yards per tush push in that game, i dont think 3 tries at it would have been too hard. Details from this game seem more relevant than info from last year. On the "anyone else would tear ACL", I would like to be objective so would like to refrain from such hyperbolic statements. He didnt get hurt on that play (or the next play where they tushed, so clearly they werent that worried about injury) and objectively josh has the longest active start streak in the league so relying on his durability seems like a pretty safe bet. Its ultimately gonna be a margin call as mentioned many times so i dont have a huge problem with a lot of the rationale mentioned already. Though im super suprised everyone feels so confident in the defense preventing a FG(!) than the offense scoring from the 2 on two tries. I truely wanna just know if the counter intuitive move to kneel would increase the win probability (im pretty confident it does).

I do think marginally the better call is to take a knee. Really surprised noone at ESPN has plugged 2nd and goal from the 2 with 2 TOs and 25 seconds left to see the win probability versus win probability after the TD (87% on ESPN).