The Frankish Reich

Catch percentage: you gotta get open to have one thrown your way! Or you gotta be big enough to make those contested catches so that your QB gives you the chance. Daboll obviously sees something in Knox, and so do most of us. The drops will likely diminish. Kroft is becoming irrelevant. I think we got a keeper.

Mr Silver Lining sez: I guess the good news is that Allen’s overall mediocre performance shows that he’s become quite an efficient short/medium range passer. Remember the knock on him was he’d air it out on the run and complete ridiculous passes way down field but then wildly miss on short passes and dinks and dunks ... Daboll is creating a mobile Trent Edwards! (Maybe that’s not such a bad thing?)

Correct. Football is difficult because there's no such thing as an adequate sample size with a 16 game season. That's why MLB has provided the laboratory for sports metrics; the season is literally 10X longer. But still ... point differential and various other things (turnover differential, W-L records in games decided by 3 points or less, etc.) are indicative of teams experiencing better or worse than typical luck as opposed to being where they are in the standings by virtue of true talent level. So these things are limited in value, but not worthless. And yes, if the Bills actually do blow out an inferior team and raise that point differential, that tells us something useful.

row33, I know math is hard... ... that’s ok. I’ll explain: teams with W-L records better than what their point differentials suggest tend to fall back, and vice versa. The Bills W-L record is better than what their meager positive point differential would suggest. Therefore, we may infer that they won’t keep winning games at a .670 rate. Got it?

Prediction 1: Broncos game vs the legendary Brandon Allen at QB, Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman will combine for 150+ yards rushing Prediction 2: Cowboys game, Ezekiel Elliot alone will rush for 130+ yards. Prediction 3: you will be clamoring for help — any kind of help! — to plug the hole in our run defense.

Well, you gotta get better if you want to do anything other than backing into the playoffs and losing a first round game ... sometimes that means taking chances.

Very good points. Over the long haul point differential says a lot: at the end of the season, the teams with the greatest positive point differential are almost always the objectively “best” teams. Right now we’re overperforming our point differential considerably, and even though 9 games is not an adequate sample, it’s suggestive of the Bills being a .500 team at best that may be very fortunate to get to 10 wins and a playoff spot. It’s to Beane’s and McDemott’s credit that they saw this and held back on making a significant deadline trade deal. We are not “one player away” from anything valuable right now.

Before everyone says “no!” (oops, too late), consider this: - I have no idea how Miami’s run game will look next week, but I do know that Denver can run the ball effectively, and that Dallas will run the ball very effectively. Going in to those games with the same defensive personnel is asking for trouble ... in a perfect world we wouldn’t have to sacrifice pass coverage to gain in run stuffing skill. 9 games in and in a fight for a playoff spot ain’t the time to look for perfection ....

Yep. These goal line calls seem totally random. I'd almost rather change the rule and say that it's where the ball is when the runner LANDS in possession of it that counts, not all of this "broke the plane" stuff. At least that would be more of a bright line rule.

Oops you'd be right. But Kyle Allen is looking good!

Beautiful snow game ending in Charlotte! Final drive, 2 plays in a row, McCaffrey held back to help block! Are you effin kidding me?

He's not better than KYLE Allen

I’ve been thinking that. Are we wasting a potentially great OLB by keeping him boxed in the middle fighting off bigger guys?

Congrats, Bills. You have successfully turned Josh Allen into a bigger, paler Tyrod Taylor.

DiMarco: I have yet to see, in his entire time here, a notable big block by DiMarco the blocking FB.