The Frankish Reich

Here's a good interview with Paul Volcker about presidents and the Fed: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/23/business/dealbook/paul-volcker-federal-reserve.html while President Trump has complained in recent months about the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates, he isn’t the first to try to influence the independent Federal Reserve. Mr. Volcker recounts being summoned to meet with President Ronald Reagan and his chief of staff, James Baker, in the president’s library next to the Oval Office in 1984. Reagan “didn’t say a word,” Mr. Volcker wrote. “Instead Baker delivered a message: ‘The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election.’” Mr. Volcker wasn’t planning to raise rates at the time. “I was stunned,” he wrote. “I later surmised that the library location had been chosen because, unlike the Oval Office, it probably lacked a taping system.” So it happens, and I don't know if anything forbids it. But making some kind of consultation mandatory nevertheless impacts the independence of the Fed in a way that isn't good for stability.

I'm no scout, but this reminds me of what we see when MLB scouts talk about "projectability." Worthy just looks like a guy who will always be skinny, not the guy who may fill out and gain strength/weight as he matures. Franklin seems to have more of a projectable frame. So if they were pitching prospects, I think we'd see something like "Franklin has the frame to fill out and add 2-3 mph to his fastball."

Hidden behind all the silly "it's TDS" comments is the actual policy changes being cooked up by people and groups waiting to pounce in a new Trump presidency. And so far, this is one of the scariest - Trump with a say in monetary policy. Say what you want about the Fed, but having an independent central bank has been one of the most critical factors in sustained economic growth, and as a preventative against political manipulation of the currency. It is an awful, stupid, dangerous idea. And it's in play if Trump wins.

Thanks. Great summary!

He HAD 4.4 speed. He actually flashed some potential with the Broncos, but he just couldn't stay on the field. As for Worthy: after sleeping on it, I'm fine with the trade and passing on him. A lot of talk here about how he's 165 pounds (o.k., I'll give him 170) and how he'll get beat up in the NFL. I'm not so worried about getting beat up running routes. But receivers do need to block too, and I can't see him having the ability to do that. So everything is kind of screaming situational speed guy, not primary X receiver. Andy Reid no doubt feels that he can make that work. With our current WR room, I don't think the Bills could make it work.

It's not the trading down that bothers me. It's the fact that I got suckered into watching the most boring two hours on TV since Geraldo opened Al Capone's vault.

Breaking: RG3 pissed that Washington drafted Cousins in the same year as him.

If Andy Reid wanted him, that's good enough for me to turn down the trade and draft him myself.

I'd like that.

Why does Quinyon Mitchell look 34 and JJ McCarthy looks 14?

The good, the bad, and the ugly.

She’s smart and seems to have an occasional pragmatic streak. Alito just seems angry and bitter now, becoming more and more doctrinaire as the years go by. Usually the opposite happens with some experience.

Does it matter whether it was solely as a bargaining chip? That's how they used her to extract something they wanted.

On a serious note - I can't find the underlying poll questions/data. If you dig into what Axios did give us, yes, the majority favor "mass deportations." But what does that mean? Does it mean rounding up people and sending them home without due process? Maybe not: 58% favor "increased pathways" for legal immigration. Would that include the spouse of a U.S. citizen who's here illegally? 65% say we should create new mechanisms for legal immigration so people don't have to enter illegally (not sure in what way this is different than the "legal pathways" question). 46% want to make sure people with legitimate asylum claims are protected, but how do we separate legitimate from illegitimate without due process (court hearings, etc)? My takeaway: Americans largely agree that the current situation is chaotic and unsustainable. I agree too. But they are also fundamentally decent people who see a role for immigrants - an increased legal role - and protections for people claiming asylum. So that's how we got here. "Mass deportations while assessing each case on its merits" is really a contradiction in terms. EDIT: I think I'd interpret it this way - "American people believe that those who are subject to deportation under the law should be expeditiously deported." Which is an indictment of Biden's policies, which by their own terms allow a lot of people who are here illegally and have no means of legalizing their status to stay here anyway.

Thanks - I've said before that one reason I still hang out here is once in a while someone has actual knowledge/experience that helps me learn something or understand something better. So with that in mind: privatize air traffic control? Have privately-owned airports on the European model? Completely deregulate airline pricing and go with an open competition on fares and perks is the best way to ensure the passenger gets what he pays for? What about new models like JSX (a great customer experience, by the way), ostensibly operating charter flights and avoiding major airports and TSA?

I get your point on the border crisis. Most of the reporting is really poor. But some of the mainstream media reporting is superb, and that's not because it's pro-Biden. For example: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/us/us-border-arizona-migrant-crossings.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/us/us-immigration-asylum-border.html From the second one, on the pull of loose asylum laws and the overwhelmed system: The United States is trying to run an immigration system with a fraction of the judges, asylum officers, interpreters and other personnel that it needs to handle the hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing the border and flocking to cities around the country each year. That dysfunction has made it impossible for the nation to expeditiously decide who can remain in the country and who should be sent back to their homeland. “I don’t know anyone who has been deported,” Carolina Ortiz, a migrant from Colombia, said in an interview in late December at an encampment outside Jacumba Hot Springs, about 60 miles southeast of San Diego and a stone’s throw from the hulking rust-colored barrier that separates the United States from Mexico. Or this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/masses-of-migrants-overwhelm-panamas-darien-gap-73d032d7 There is a good depth of reporting out there. Yes, in the Opinion sections the liberal approach dominates. But there is also actual reporting - sending a reporter to Panama, to the SW border, talking to people, analyzing statistics. I'll give some credit to Fox's Bill Melugin too for actually being there and asking some hard questions, but I guess now even Fox counts as "mainstream." Thank goodness that this type of actual reporting still happens in the mainstream media. The Alt Media is all hot takes and sloganeering. It's ok I guess for what it is, but for many people that kind of thing is their sole source of news. That's a bad thing.

Well it's not the same as being held by Russia as a bargaining chip, which we all know was the case with Griner even though she did apparently violate Russian law. And yes, the State Department is no doubt involved, and they will advocate for the detained American. That's one of the things they do, even for the idiot Americans who get arrested engaging in some high-spirited drunken revelry in someone else's country. Turks and Caicos will want to assert its right to control what comes into their country, but ultimately they have an interest in American tourism and this will likely be resolved quickly. Without the need for a T&C spy to be exchanged for him ...

There it is, another suburban basement revolutionary.

I do get it. I grew up in an airline family. It is a highly regulated business. So I heard all the arguments: overbooking is essential to an airline's survival. An airline seat is the ultimate perishable good. If overbooking (and bumping passengers) isn't allowed, then airlines will have to eat the cost of no-shows, endangering their very survival. The market was skewed ridiculously in favor of the airlines and against the passenger. So we corrected that. We are now trying to correct some other practices that also give the airlines too much leeway. One of the provisions of the new regs: I didn't even get a refund of my checked bag fee unless my bag was delayed by over 12 hours. Really? The airline failed to get the bag onto my connecting flight and they're still gonna charge me when I arrive at 9:00 pm and my bag follows the next morning at 8:00 am? Go ahead, keep your various fees, etc. But let's make sure they're clearly disclosed, and that the customer understands what he's being upsold on. It won't kill the airlines any more than deregulation did under Carter, or that The airline passenger bill of rights thing did more recently. It simply restores some order, certainty, and fairness to the process.

Because his army sucks?

Breaking news! Requires a new thread!! Or maybe a recycled 4 year old story that got no traction then (because there was nothing there) and will get no traction now. Other than with the useful morons of Donald's Army. https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/01/22/whistleblower_was_overheard_in_17_discussing_with_ally_how_to_remove_trump_121701.html

New York couldn't even get weed right. https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-illegal-weed-shops-marijuana-kathy-hochul-9f68cbf6?mod=opinion_lead_pos3 Boosters of legal marijuana promised a utopia like something from the sunniest dreams of the 1960s: responsible use, oodles of tax revenue, and upstanding entrepreneurs instead of lawbreaking dealers. But in New York less than two years later, a thicket of illegal stores is crowding out licensees in a genuine fiasco. I live in Colorado. Woo-hoo, first in the nation to legalize weed! I didn't like it when it happened, not because I'm not in favor of legalization (I am) but because I didn't want Colorado to become an even bigger magnet for weed tourism, etc. And guess what happened when Obama said "go ahead?" A bunch of weed stores opened. A bunch of greenhouses growing weed for them started up. A bunch of ancillary services joined them. I recall sitting at a coffee shop overhearing a conversation between some kind of investor group and a guy who was starting up a weed packaging business. (Real quote: "We want the customer to be able to open the package and get that blast of fresh weed, kind of like opening a potato chip bag"). And the black market essentially disappeared. Licensed, generally well-regulated, not an anything goes third worldly bunch of fly-by-night outfits. New York had the model. Just copy Colorado! And still they got it horribly wrong.

Here's the WSJ worrying that things are too good and can't last. It seems that nobody on the right (old or new) can be happy these days. https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/us-economy-strongest-world-imf-projections-8e707514 America’s Economy Is No. 1. That Means Trouble. If you want a single number to capture America’s economic stature, here it is: This year, the U.S. will account for 26.3% of the global gross domestic product, the highest in almost two decades. That’s based on the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund. According to the IMF, Europe’s share of world GDP has dropped 1.4 percentage points since 2018, and Japan’s by 2.1 points. The U.S. share, by contrast, is up 2.3 points. China’s share is up since 2018, too. But instead of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest economy, the Chinese economy has slipped in size to 64% of the U.S.’s from 67% in 2018. You sound like my mother. 75 degrees, sunny, gentle breeze. Me: what a fantastic day! Mom: but not for long! The weatherman says it may snow next week.

Because Turks and Caicos is just like that Arctic Circle prison camp where Navalny died while taking an ill-advised stroll.

Different thing. The housing market: for every loser (the young person paying a high price for a home), there's a winner (the old person making a mint and retiring somewhere warm). On the macro economic scale, an overheated economy means inflation. We just had that. The Fed raised rates to try to get things back in balance. So far it seems to be happening. Why is this bad? Inflation was bad, the cure for inflation is bad, everything is bad ...