Who else is in the let’s get Gabe Davis signed to an extension camp?

[whorlnut]

I think gabe is gonna want to do what edmunds did. He will bet on himself and let the cards fall where they may at the end of the season. If that means we lose him, then so be it. It’s a smart move on his part. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I'd be open to it but at the fair market value of what you think he's going to produce.

 

I like him more than slayton who got 6M AAV, but his numbers don't really line up with JuJu at 8.5M AAV.  The big issue is his agents going to point at allen lazard getting 11M AAV on a 4 year deal - which feels like a lot.  We don't have cap space to pay a #2 WR 11+M AAV, let alone one who has as many wrinkles as Davis.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

At no point did I say there isn't concerns or that there wasn't any merit to having concerns. If anything, I'm pointing to his biggest detractors who argue the guy has zero redeeming qualities and have a total vendetta for him. Just like all of our Gabe Davis discussions, I'm looking at things from Brandon Beane's stance from his words and actions. 

 

What's likely, what's not likely, and the different points to the discussion from all angles. Not just ranting and raving about my own personal viewpoint. And that's where we always seem to butt heads here. Your view is this is a place to discuss (or rant) about your personal (often hardline) stance. Whereas I don't see the point in that when it comes to personnel and focus more on what the guy calling the shots is likely to do or not do. 

 

But back to Davis. Yes, he had drops last year. But Beane's stance has been that he was dealing with injuries that effected his game (and yes, I hear your concern that this has been an issue in other years) and was also playing against tougher CB's and tougher coverage than he had been up to that point in his career in that it was his first year as a Starter.

 

However, even with your concerns, again, of which there is some merit to, he was 33rd in the league in Reception yards by WR and 16th in the league in TD's by WR. Which is at the very top end production for a #2 WR. 

 

And he put up top production for a #2 WR in a year that you argue wasn't a good year for him. Beane sees a guy that is going into his second year as a Starter and can grow with that experience and a belief that he won't be injured as much. If he can do that, he will have even better numbers.

 

If he truly feels this way as he says (and his actions this offseason has proved) and he can get him re-signed now at a number that fits a top end #2 WR, he may be inclined to do so as if he does perform up to his expectations - it will cost a lot more.

 

Whether you personally think it's wise or not.

 

And at no point did I suggest you said the highlighted.  I didn't need to.  Your exaggeration spoke volumes. 

 

Because there is nothing to suggest an "All Pro" season wouldn't sway opinion of Gabe...................and literally nobody has said Davis has "zero redeeming qualities".   

 

Just fabricated hyperbole from you.

 

The exaggeration with some of you is off the charts here..........like @eball saying that people claim the Bills offense is in a "downward spiral" because it's simply being pointed out that the passing game specifically has declined considerably since 2020.    

 

There is a significant difference between those two descriptions........and as in your case, it was an exaggeration fabricated to shout down undeniable statistical fact.

 

You have to exaggerate against those facts because you can't accept the reality or maybe because you just don't know what you are talking about.

 

Those takes are reminiscent of when the media asked McDermott about being the worst scoring offense in the NFL since the merger halfway thru 2018 and his answer was "Would we like to score 50 points per game?  Sure."    As if anyone suggested that 50 ppg was the difference between worst-ever-thru-8-games and acceptable.  

 

The difference is that McDermott has to answer those questions.   You guys volunteer these takes. 

 

Now as for the rest of your takes on Gabe...........his bulk stats were disappointing as well considering his opportunity/QB........but they are WR2 type.........the problem is that you can't isolate them from the incredible inefficiency per target in his game.    The other players in that bulk WR2 category aren't barely catching 50% of their targets, outright dropping 10% of them and producing a woeful 80 passer rating when thrown to.    Those numbers aren't excusable by having a bad foot for the 3rd straight season.  That wasn't an outlier for him.

 

But I am glad you think that there is *some* merit to those among-very-worst numbers.  

 

And wrt Beane.........I don't know what he is thinking.    Last year at this time people with your slant were still thinking Edmunds was going to get re-signed.   If the organization is certain about a player these things get done in the offseason after year 3 when they become extension eligible.   Presuming that Beane has made up his mind about the lengths he will go to re-sign Davis would be a mistake.   A great start might elevate the urgency and raise his value.   A poor start might cause them to back off.   I would guess that they have a number in mind now that they would sign him for immediately but we don't even know THAT for certain.

[Yawning Frog]

16 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If he makes it through the season with no contract, we’re probably going to lose him
 

By all accounts, he has been lights out in this camp like literally one of the best players on the field

 

 

 

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This is exactly right and it sucks because I guarantee you he is going to have an amazing season.

 

 

we shall see if he can put together a season of 60 - 70 catches and / or reduce the drop rate conserably. I think he can but got to see it. Either way like you agreed he is gone after this year... 

[Malazan]

I don't see the advantage for the Bills. I actually think highly of him and thought last season was unfortunate. Davis is well aware he had a down year and so is his agent. He's not going to give a massive discount and is going to bank on having a year that convinces someone to pay him. So the Bills would end up giving him a 'market' contract with a ton of risk on their end. 

 

I'd rather let him play in a contract year and get the highest possible performance from him and let the chips fall where they may next offseason. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Malazan

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And wrt Beane.........I don't know what he is thinking.    Last year at this time people with your slant were still thinking Edmunds was going to get re-signed.   If the organization is certain about a player these things get done in the offseason after year 3 when they become extension eligible.   Presuming that Beane has made up his mind about the lengths he will go to re-sign Davis would be a mistake.   A great start might elevate the urgency and raise his value.   A poor start might cause them to back off.   I would guess that they have a number in mind now that they would sign him for immediately but we don't even know THAT for certain.

Much as I thought about Edmunds, I want to see an entire season and post season worth of performance in his walk year to make a decision. I dont want Beane to sign him earlier under the fear of him being too expensive next offseason. Worst case, he excels this season, brings up his catch % and becomes too expensive for the Bills. And then the Bills are in the market for a #2, which I am fine with. We havent seen the consistency from Davis to do an early renewal of contract. 

[ColoradoBills]

I'm all for Gabe having a career season and toping it off with the SB winning TD reception.

Let another team pay him big money and get that 3rd round comp pick.

 

Beane will need it picking at 32.

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If he makes it through the season with no contract, we’re probably going to lose him
 

By all accounts, he has been lights out in this camp like literally one of the best players on the field

 

 

 

I get why you are saying this...and I will admit, his camp performance has started to shift my skepticism (after last seasons struggles) some, and more so because of how much more has come out about his ankle injury and the impact it had on him last season.  

 

Also, with Kincaid here, Gabe doesn't have to be so heavily relied on, and I think Kincaid is going to open up a lot of things for Davis this season.  It's not unrealistic to think Davis has his best season this year and that he might flourish in this offense now the way it is built.  

 

But, it is still training camp, so I wouldn't want to over react and give him some deal that he may not live up to.  However, if they found a way to get an extension together that wasn't crazy, then hey I wouldn't hate it.  But I also don't know why Gabe would do a deal like that in a contract year, I mean he will get that type of deal regardless from someone at the very minimum next season.  It would only be if he truly wants to stay, otherwise he can set himself up for a potential significant contract next year if he puts up his best season.

 

And you are right, if he has a big season, then we will likely lose him as it would be tough to afford him. 

 

[dayman]

Gabe needs to play beside we sign him to anything

[Milanos Milano]

No on paying Davis. I’m a big fan of paying players who deserve it, and not those that only show up in contract years. 

As others have said, draft a WR in the 1st next year and have 5 years of cost controls. 

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I'd be open to it but at the fair market value of what you think he's going to produce.

 

I like him more than slayton who got 6M AAV, but his numbers don't really line up with JuJu at 8.5M AAV.  The big issue is his agents going to point at allen lazard getting 11M AAV on a 4 year deal - which feels like a lot.  We don't have cap space to pay a #2 WR 11+M AAV, let alone one who has as many wrinkles as Davis.  

 

yikes, Lazard is overpaid.  

Paying Gabe big money seems like a mistake.  A rookie and/or lower priced vet (hopefully Shorter is good), and use the extra money on the OL.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I don't know how to reconcile the nobody outworks Gabe Davis line, with the photo I saw of him after the season with Bert K. 

 

If the Bills just straight up let him walk and try to replace with what they have, of course they'll be worse. 

 

But heading into the 2024 Draft we already know the biggest problems on this roster: RT, WR, MLB and probably going to need someone at S. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

21 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If he makes it through the season with no contract, we’re probably going to lose him
 

By all accounts, he has been lights out in this camp like literally one of the best players on the field

 

 

Every year there’s a training camp hero that now sells insurance. Not saying Gabe is that, but let’s not anoint him a star until the games count. 

[WhoTom]

7 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

On the other hand, Davis's comments didn't seem like he was in a rush. Those can be found in the article below.

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2023/07/buffalo-bills-receiver-reveals-mothers-message-ahead-of-contract-year.html

 

From that article:

Quote

“My mom tells me all the time, and I try to think of it as well ... look how far I’ve come, look where I’m at, look what I’m doing, I’m living my dream,” Davis said. “(She said) don’t let the money take your happiness away on why you love this game and why you started playing it in the first place.”

 

Sounds like he might be amenable to a team-friendly deal.

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

The more I think about it the more Im ok letting him walk.  He'll be vastly overpaid, help us snag a comp pick..... PLUS I think it somewhat forces our hand to go WR in rd1.

 

These WR classes have been awesome. Snag someone more versatile, with a higher ceiling, on a cost controlled contract.  Justin Jefferson was like what, the 4th or 5th WR off the board.  Not saying we'll get a JJ, but WR hasnt been one of the positions where if you dont get the top#1 or 2 prospect at the position, you are SOL.

 

With Josh here, we should 100% be taking a WR in rds 1-3 EVERY year. Josh is going to help a lot of guys get overpaid on their 2nd contracts elsewhere, need to keep the pipeline flowing

[Charles Romes]

Really worried about 14 hitting the wall at 30. It happens. 

[Pokebball]

Absolutely. A reasonable one.

[oldmanfan]

I’d certainly open the discussion if I were Beane.

[BananaB]

Why would you want extend a guy who had a rough year? It’s not like Gabe hasn’t shined during TC before. He does every summer. 

[1ManRaid]

I'm as big a believer in Davis as the next guy, but I'm in the "jeeze, let's at least see him play in a preseason game first to see how he's taking to the new schemes and routes" camp.

[NoSaint]

19 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

May your 40th post be better

That is a very good question. The answer is I don’t know. I just assumed that it would be cheaper now then if we waited till the end of the year.
 

The truth is, we don’t know how the bills feel about him. I’ve got the sneaky suspicion that the bills love him.

 

But they love Tremaine Edmunds to

it may be a little cheaper now 

 

But it’s likely starting talks at close to 15m a year? I mean guys like Lazard and jokobi Myers are 11m. Sutton and Renfrow are 15m.
 

unless you think he breaks out as a top 10 guy, he’s going to be similarly in the teens next year. Is the savings of 14 vs 16 worth moving early? Meh.

[transplantbillsfan]

Yes, 100%.

 

I'm in one of 2 boats:

 

1)  Sign him to an extension NOW!!!!  He is only going to get more expensive.  Keep in mind it's not just about how he plays this year, it's also about the WR market.  The WR market seems to be trending up, so even if he has another year resembling last year, I think he's going to be looking at a contract north of $15m per year next offseason.  If we lock him up now, we could potentially get him for less.

 

OR

 

2) Trade him for assets that will help us to draft a true #1B WR opposite Diggs in next year's draft.  Everyone knows I started a thread about this that seems unpopular, but from all reports in camp, it looks like we'll have more weapons than we had last year even without Davis.  And with the shift in our offense to more 12 personnel with Kincaid and Knox and how both are looking in camp, I don't know that putting Sherfield opposite Diggs with Knox, Kincaid and Cook as our other weapons is that huge a downgrade.  Plus we'd have plenty of draft capital for cost-controlled, inexpensive talent.

 

 

And yes, I realize some are pointing out the compensatory pick thing, but that also requires that you let some of your other UFAs walk and you don't sign as many as you let walk.  It requires you basically sit on your hands and choose not to upgrade your team or maintain what you have in order to acquire a 3rd or 4th round draft pick.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

it may be a little cheaper now 

 

But it’s likely starting talks at close to 15m a year? I mean guys like Lazard and jokobi Myers are 11m. Sutton and Renfrow are 15m.
 

unless you think he breaks out as a top 10 guy, he’s going to be similarly in the teens next year. Is the savings of 14 vs 16 worth moving early? Meh.

I firmly believe this FO is planning for life after Gabe next year. If they truly believe that Kincaid is going to emerge as the slot #2 option behind Diggs, then you don’t throw big money at what will really be WR3 even though he plays the boundary. 

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Yes, 100%.

 

I'm in one of 2 boats:

 

1)  Sign him to an extension NOW!!!!  He is only going to get more expensive.  Keep in mind it's not just about how he plays this year, it's also about the WR market.  The WR market seems to be trending up, so even if he has another year resembling last year, I think he's going to be looking at a contract north of $15m per year next offseason.  If we lock him up now, we could potentially get him for less.

 

OR

 

2) Trade him for assets that will help us to draft a true #1B WR opposite Diggs in next year's draft.  Everyone knows I started a thread about this that seems unpopular, but from all reports in camp, it looks like we'll have more weapons than we had last year even without Davis.  And with the shift in our offense to more 12 personnel with Kincaid and Knox and how both are looking in camp, I don't know that putting Sherfield opposite Diggs with Knox, Kincaid and Cook as our other weapons is that huge a downgrade.  Plus we'd have plenty of draft capital for cost-controlled, inexpensive talent.

 

 

And yes, I realize some are pointing out the compensatory pick thing, but that also requires that you let some of your other UFAs walk and you don't sign as many as you let walk.  It requires you basically sit on your hands and choose not to upgrade your team or maintain what you have in order to acquire a 3rd or 4th round draft pick.

Holy *****. Pay Gabe $14M or trade him and put Sherfield on the field because it won’t be that big of a downgrade??

 

impossible to have both of these takes at once.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Much as I thought about Edmunds, I want to see an entire season and post season worth of performance in his walk year to make a decision. I dont want Beane to sign him earlier under the fear of him being too expensive next offseason. Worst case, he excels this season, brings up his catch % and becomes too expensive for the Bills. And then the Bills are in the market for a #2, which I am fine with. We havent seen the consistency from Davis to do an early renewal of contract. 

 

 

Agree.   I think if Davis was willing to take a Logan Wilson style discount deal........or the 2023 equivalent of the 2022 Marquez Valdes-Scantling deal........then that probably would have gotten done.  

 

But even that we don't know because we don't know what kind of numbers they've thrown around.

 

And how many times were obviously legitimate criticism of Tremaine Edmunds answered simply with "well Beane thinks differently" by people who presumed to know that Tremaine would never be allowed to get out of the building?     

[PBF81]

No matter the opinions, Camp observers and the coaching staff are high on Davis so far from what they've seen with him playing injury-free.  

 

It should be encouraging.  

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

yikes, Lazard is overpaid.  

Paying Gabe big money seems like a mistake.  A rookie and/or lower priced vet (hopefully Shorter is good), and use the extra money on the OL.  

 

I'm fine paying a wide receiver. Trade a decent pick if someone becomes available as they almost always do, if I'm paying a premium I want a more premium player than Davis has shown to be at this point.

[BigDingus]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I think we all get that.  Point is they can re-sign him any time, not just after the season. 

 

We should all get that, but I responded to the original post claiming there was "NO benefit" to extending him now. I simply pointed out there was. 

 

"Any time, not just after the season" presents the same dilemma. If you play wait & see, you lose leverage the further into a good season you go.

 

And if you do wait until end of the season, you're almost guaranteeing he leaves.

 

He has a great season - can't afford him. 

He has a bad season- you let him hit FA.

He has an average season- you only extend if the player doesn't think he'll get a better shot elsewhere & you don't have better options.

 

So it seems like most of the board is willing to just hope for one great season out of him & saying goodbye. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

Holy *****. Pay Gabe $14M or trade him and put Sherfield on the field because it won’t be that big of a downgrade??

 

impossible to have both of these takes at once.

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

Isabella is hardly a real kick returner or punt returner option 

 

He's like the third option after Hines went down and after Harty. Hyde will field punts before him. Purely a camp option to shag punts

 

He has like 10 total kick/ punt returns in 4 years of college

 

If he makes the team it's because he could stretch the field at wide receiver

Edited August 12, 2023 by Buffalo716

[transplantbillsfan]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Isabella is hardly a real kick returner or punt returner option 

 

He's like the third option after Hines went down and after Harty. Hyde will field punts before him. Purely a camp option to shag punts

 

He has like 10 total kick/ punt returns in 4 years of college

 

If he makes the team it's because he could stretch the field at wide receiver

 

Thanks... sounds like he's been having a good camp.

 

WR is seriously a position to watch in preseason with Isabella/Shorter/Davis/Harty/Sherfield. 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Thanks... sounds like he's been having a good camp.

 

WR is seriously a position to watch in preseason with Isabella/Shorter/Davis/Harty/Sherfield. 

Yes it is

 

I low-key really like the guys we have ... Good mix of traits 

[Chaos]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Trade him for assets that will help us to draft a true #1B WR opposite Diggs in next year's draft.

What is the trade value for a WR2 with one year left on a rookie contract? Is this value different now, than at the trading deadline, if so what is the value at the trade deadline? 

[Dr.Sack]

Gabe is too good to not re-up. His stats are right on par with DeVante Adams 3 seasons in.

 

Adams

281 targets / 163 receptions / 1,926 yards / 16 TDs

Playoffs 43 targets / 28 receptions / 389 yards / 4 TDs

 

Davis

218 targets / 118 receptions / 1,984 yards / 20 TDs

Playoffs 37 targets / 22 receptions / 474 yards / 6 TDs

 

 

 

 

[JoPoy88]

On 8/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, John from Riverside said:

If he makes it through the season with no contract, we’re probably going to lose him
 

By all accounts, he has been lights out in this camp like literally one of the best players on the field

 

 

first time I’ve read this post and unsure why you’ve received so many negative reactions because it’s a perfectly valid question but I would not sign him now - understanding that his high ankle sprain hindered him all last year I would still want to see another season of him (hopefully fully healthy) in order to figure that out.

 

If he’s lights out awesome yeah he’ll get interest but Beane can find a way to pay and keep him. If he’s not so great, well, some other team will pay a premium and the Bills will move on.

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

We should all get that, but I responded to the original post claiming there was "NO benefit" to extending him now. I simply pointed out there was. 

 

"Any time, not just after the season" presents the same dilemma. If you play wait & see, you lose leverage the further into a good season you go.

 

And if you do wait until end of the season, you're almost guaranteeing he leaves.

 

He has a great season - can't afford him. 

He has a bad season- you let him hit FA.

He has an average season- you only extend if the player doesn't think he'll get a better shot elsewhere & you don't have better options.

 

So it seems like most of the board is willing to just hope for one great season out of him & saying goodbye. 

 

Given the always rising cap, you can always afford "great" players.

 

Beane disagrees with you 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

7 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

We should all get that, but I responded to the original post claiming there was "NO benefit" to extending him now. I simply pointed out there was. 

 

"Any time, not just after the season" presents the same dilemma. If you play wait & see, you lose leverage the further into a good season you go.

 

And if you do wait until end of the season, you're almost guaranteeing he leaves.

 

He has a great season - can't afford him. 

He has a bad season- you let him hit FA.

He has an average season- you only extend if the player doesn't think he'll get a better shot elsewhere & you don't have better options.

 

So it seems like most of the board is willing to just hope for one great season out of him & saying goodbye. 

 

 

 

Nothing wrong with that.   Hopefully they upgrade over what he was last season.   That wouldn't be that tall of an order.......2021 Emmanuel Sanders was better than 2022 Gabriel Davis.    I don't think you sign up for what Gabe did last season for 4-5 years.   Even the Chiefs only gave MVS 3 years $30M.   Unfortunately bad years prior to walk years set up wait and see situations like this.

[eball]

Mr. Optimism here…I’m banking that Y4 Gabe Davis has finally learned how to get his body “right” and the nagging foot/ankle injuries of the past are behind him.  There is no debating that every reporter watching camp has gushed over how Gabe has looked, and we have seen more than enough on the field to know what he is capable of when healthy.

 

If I’m Beane I’m trying to get that deal done now, before Gabe’s price skyrockets.

 

[Eastport bills]

Gabe is about to become elite and his production the last three post seasons is enough proof to do everything possible to sign him before he hits FA. The value of getting your own draft pick on the cheap is huge. You know the guy’s work ethic, character and desire to be a Bill, along with his relationship and trust factor with Josh. Any time a GM wants to sign a player they can find the money and structure the deal to make it doable.

[uticaclub]

Too much of a boom-or-bust player, you take away the game against Pittsburgh and his season was terrible.