
Thurman#1
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What Position in Free Agency Puts Buffalo Over the Top?
Thurman#1 replied to BuffaloBaumer's topic in The Stadium Wall
Our defense allowed 21.3 PPG in the playoffs this year. 22 PPG last year. 29.0 PPG in 2022. 26.0 the year before and 21.6 in 2020. So you clearly aren't referencing McDermott. Oh, wait, you don't actually mean to "playoff opponents," right? You mean you want to throw out all good games and only count the playoff one playoff opponent who has done best against us, right? Well, statistically, throwing out all the good games and only counting the worst is totally misleading and unfair, but let's go with it, OK? In that case we should get rid of McDermott, and the Chiefs should get rid of Reid, since his defense has also allowed 28 plus points to playoff opponents. Which opponents? Um, us. -
What Position in Free Agency Puts Buffalo Over the Top?
Thurman#1 replied to BuffaloBaumer's topic in The Stadium Wall
Probably not impossible. But spectacularly rare. There are a few guys who do what you're suggesting Higgins might want to do, take a major discount to go to a new team with a Super Bowl shot and a good environment. Very few, but they do exist. But almost without exception, those guys are guys on their third or fourth contract, who've banked a ton on their first few. So far, Higgins has earned, before taxes, about $8.6M. He'll get another $21M this year on the 5th year agreement, but this is again before taxes. Guys like Higgins don't do things like that. Pretty much without exception. If the Bills didn't like what they got from your Player B in that first year, think they'd sign him on an extension anyway? I don't. And I think the players are very aware that that's what Beane's job is, to do what's in the Bills best interest. IMO it's not going to happen. If we get Garrett, that'll be it for big names. -
What Position in Free Agency Puts Buffalo Over the Top?
Thurman#1 replied to BuffaloBaumer's topic in The Stadium Wall
DE. Specifically Garrett. Without a doubt. We scored enough all year and even against KC. And we could probably have scored more if Kincaid just makes that catch, which he does nine times out of ten. What we don't have is a pass rush that hurries Mahomes. That's always been what we didn't have, except maybe for Von before the injury. -
This is my guess, unless we draft and develop one. In any case, game-planning the offense for a team with a #1 is easier, not harder. I'm not sure the 2023 Diggs is a true #1, and I think it's very arguable that Cooper never was. Still, OP has an interesting observation there. Worth mentioning, I think. Cooper has spent much of his career as a top 20 WR, but "true #1" is questionable. I think they're going to bring in a WR, maybe someone on the general level of an Emmanuel Sanders or a John Brown. And maybe draft someone in the top two or three rounds as well. Yup, this also seems very reasonable to me.
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I'm kind of surprised they gave it to him. But I absolutely think he deserved it. Terrific season. Lamar had one too, but Josh's was better.
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He doesn't need any of them. They came within a dropped pass of the Super Bowl and the offense was really productive this year. Who would fit best when they try to improve? A route-runner, smooth, with good top speed, IMO. A Diggs type without the neediness, I think.
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Not really clear what he means by this. That figure isn't the Bills PPG. Or even the Bills franchise PPG over the last five years. It's the Bills PPG with all of their wins removed, in the last five years. What's it being compared to? One game PPGs? Total franchise PPGs? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years with all wins not included? In any case, not too surprising that looking only at losses produces a bad-looking stat.
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Glas to hear you haven't given up on him. And IMO Rashee Rice is pretty similar so far. A VG first year then a major drop back, with Rice due to injury. Their total productions are about the same. Anyway, I added this to my first reply to you above, but it's moving so fast you didn't see it. Definitely a drop backwards. But why? Some kind of injury? Disagreement with the OC? Needed more of a blocker at TE? Later in the route progressions and Josh threw to earlier alternatives? Lost the ability to get open? It's just not clear. But maybe getting clearer after that Katherine Fitzgerald tweet "Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee -- "It's insane what he's played through." You can find the tweet in this article, if you haven't seen it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-gm-brandon-beane-weighs-in-on-te-dalton-kincaid-s-sophomore-season/ar-AA1ycXle Beane mentioned it in the PC too. Also implied he needs to build up play strength. So that would appear to be something he will likely be trying to work on also. And I just don't care about the comparisons to TEs in his draft class. There wasn't a lot of sentiment on here, or anywhere, really for drafting LaPorta or Mayer (in the first round, anyway). I care how good a TE he is. I think if he gets the knee thing squared away and has a good offseason we could be seeing him in a very different light.
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Excuse me, YOU are the one who compared Allen to Kincaid. I only responded. Oh, and Kincaid was old. And from a smaller school, fairly raw. His athleticism and great hands helped him out to a great start, but he hadn't had much route-running or nuance. He was just really athletic. You certainly could be right that his rookie year is one of his best. My guess is that's not how it goes, but either one could absolutely happen. But "there is less room to grow when you come into the NFL at 24 instead of 21" makes little or no sense to me. Most growth in your first three or four years in the league occurs above the neckline. That's where people see the most improvement as things slow down for them and they know where the QB wants them to go and HT run routes at NFL level and so on. Coming in older does likely mean you will reach your older years a bit sooner. Not always, sometimes a lack of mileage can let guys last longer, but certainly it's a concern. But it really does NOT mean you've got less room to grow. And there's plenty of room for putting on a few pounds more and eating better at age 24, as much as age 21. Utah probably has pretty good facilities, but not NFL level, and not real close. Alright, not much else to say beyond, "look at the numbers. Then look at who the safeties were playing with." There simply shouldn't be much doubt.
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Everybody has some trouble containing passing attacks. We had much less trouble than most teams. For many years in a row. And a very large percentage of that was Hyde and Poyer. This isn't a hidden secret of the Masons or something. Pretty much everyone knows it. If you have no idea how good they were, I'll tell you. Extremely good. Again, the numbers showed it. It's not just me, it's pretty much everyone. Rapp is actually pretty good at this point. He wasn't when he got here, but they're excellent teachers here. Hamlin is acceptable. The difference is that Poyer and Hyde were both excellent for years. Sensational athletes? No. Hyde especially was pretty good. But they were really good at being misleading, facilitating communication and working together to confuse QBs. But the Bills D this year was 20th in defensive passer rating. And for most of the year they had really good CBs until Douglas seemed to drop off. 20th. And again, with Poyer and Hyde, it was* 2022 2nd in defensive passer rating 2021, 1st, 70.1 2020, 7th 2019 4th 2019 3rd 2017 5th in 2017. Is some of that CB play? Absolutely, without question. But outside of Tre, during those years we had guys at CB like Dane Jackson, and Levi and Shareece Wright (55% of the snaps in 2017).
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"Kincaid has been a disappointment in his first two years. There's no reasonable way to state otherwise," you say? That's just not true. Not at all. Here's a reasonable alternative. Kincaid's first year was an absolute success. However his second year was a disappointment. He took a step back for some reason. That's every bit as reasonable. He was 10th in the league among TEs as a rook in yardage. 7th in receptions. One of the best in completions/target. Better than promising. Outright very good, particularly for a rookie. Definitely a drop backwards. But why? Some kind of injury? Disagreement with the OC? Needed more of a blocker at TE? Later in the route progressions and Josh threw to earlier alternatives? Lost the ability to get open? It's just not clear. But maybe getting clearer after that Katherine Fitzgerald tweet His snaps went down, 699 (63%) to 471 (57%). "Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee -- "It's insane what he's played through." You can find the tweet in this article, if you haven't seen it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-gm-brandon-beane-weighs-in-on-te-dalton-kincaid-s-sophomore-season/ar-AA1ycXle Beane mentioned it in the PC too. Also implied he needs to build up play strength. So that would appear to be something he will likely be trying to work on also.
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That's flat-out ridiculous. Of course it's early. Very early. He was a rookie in 2023 and this year was his second year in the NFL, which is way early. Um, yes, 26. Second year in the NFL. That's how this is looked at. Spending two years at JUCO and three years at Utah isn't going to count as NFL experience. The idea's dumb. Josh, when he was 26, was in his fifth NFL year. And he was very unspecial in his first two.
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Good teams absolutely did not do anything they wanted against our secondary in the Poyer and Hyde years, that's nonsense. Mahomes, obviously, did well enough to beat us consistently in the playoffs. But nobody else really stopped him either. In 2022 we were 2nd in defensive passer rating, in 2021, way out in first holding opposing QBs to an average passer rating of 70.1, 7th in 2020, 4th in 2019, 3rd in 2018 and 5th in 2017. That's consistent excellence against the pass. As for specific games when good teams very much did not do anything they wanted against our secondary during those years, check out the passing success of: KC 10/10/21 Mahomes 33/54-272-2-2 TB 2021 Brady 2243 269 0-0 passer rating 70.8 19 points scored (Tampa was the #2 offense that year) Just the first two I looked at.
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Come on, Kirby, it's way too early on Kincaid and Coleman. And Rousseau is a good player, significantly better than average. We are in the same place we've been for years. Really really good. One of the top teams in the league, that hasn't been able to get past the Chiefs. And IMO you're listening to some fruitcakes if you are hearing that Shakir is elite. He's good and getting better. Spencer Brown, especially at the end of the season, was playing at an extremely high level. Taron's damn good, among the best, though slot guys don't generally get ranked among the highest CBs. That's an interesting look at things with Geno. I don't agree, myself. I'd guess it's more like 10 wins for the Geno Ravens probably a game or two game less with last year's Henry-less group, and 8 or 9 for the Geno Bills. Interesting way of looking at it, though, and you could be right.