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Thurman#1

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  1. Yeah, I'm with you. I see more than 15 guys as "cuttable." More like 19 or 20. And there are always a few surprise cuts above that threshold as well. Also a few surprise FAs that step up and make themselves more valuable than we think.
  2. There absolutely is an argument. Either way. For keeping the picks, we've had 5ths, 6ths and 7ths stick and contribute. But we've also lost some guys worth keeping and developing because of a lack of space. This year there is more space on the roster than usual, the cap-driven massacre was wider than it usually is. Since more guys means a larger likelihood of finding a guy who can contribute, it's certainly a legit argument.
  3. IMO 90% Wilson. But hopefully Fields can take a page from the Jordan Love playbook and use the time on the bench to get a lot better over time. Hopefully for Pittsburgh anyway.
  4. This is always a cool thing. Thanks for doing it. Particularly putting up a prize is service above and beyond. Nice!!
  5. Yeah, potato leek is one of the good ones. Split pea. Lentil. Chicken, if the chunks are big. Life is good when you have one of those things.
  6. Ah, I see. I agree with most of that. I expect a vet, not necessarily one who will start, but possibly. And if I had to guess I'd say I also expect a safety in the draft as well, maybe even one in the first four rounds or so. And I do have a ton of faith in McDermott's ability to maximize defensive backfields.
  7. Yeah, second-best. It's indeed subjective, but very reasonable indeed. Personally, I agree with you there. But I think we both probably agree on who is the first-best, right? Mahomes, right? That's my feeling anyway. Do you disagree? And when the best QB only manages to get both of those measure into the top three in the league in two out of his six seasons, arguing that Allen should do it consistently just simply doesn't make sense. Brady managed it two times out of his last ten years. In a run when they made five Super Bowls and won three. And Brady is arguably the GOAT, certainly one of the very few who could legitimately be mentioned as being in the running for the GOAT. Brady does it two times out of ten. Mahomes does it two times out of six. And Allen is supposed to do it "consistently"? I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make sense. It just doesn't. That is an unreasonable expectation, it just is. You say Allen was 8th in yards per game? And that it was a down year for him? Yeah. Agreed. The fact that guys HAVE down years, all of them, Brady, Mahomes, ALL of them, is precisely why it's unreasonable to expect a guy to be in the top three of both of those categories consistently. Know who else had a down year? Mahomes. He was 7th, just barely ahead of Allen in 8th. Guys have up and down years. It's the nature of human beings, teams, hell it's in the nature of statistics itself. I think you're right that some of it comes down to play-calling and such. I would also argue that a lot of it comes down to defenses playing guys like Allen and Mahomes differently from the way they play most QBs. Defenses have caught up with the highest-flying offenses of the past few years. They're saying they aren't going to let you hit the chunks plays anymore. Trevor Lawrence was 9th. Lamar Jackson 16th. Defensive strategies also have a lot to do with it. But the point is that it's the way statistics work. They go up and down. For Mahomes, Brady, Allen, everyone. Getting both of those numbers up that high is statistically a rare thing. It's not something you can expect consistently. More, Allen is always going to have a disadvantage in passing TDs compared to most QBs. How many times inside the ten does Pat Mahomes run for the TD? A running TDs is every single bit as good as a passing TD. They both count seven points. Add running TDs to passing TDs and Allen suddenly compares very differently. Take the running TDs out and you're handicapping Allen compared to the other QBs. Wait a minute. You suddenly went from yards per game above when that number better suited you, to total passing yards here, when that better suited you. Allen runs a ton more than those guys, a ton more. Think those rankings would look a bit different if we look at total production? Of course they would. Total yards is deeply affected by how many throws you make, and Allen generally throws less because he runs on a fairly large number of his throwing snaps. And looking at passing yards again ignores the whole point of football, wins. Again, you don't win more by being the best passing team. You win more by being the best team. That should be the goal when drafting, bringing in FAs, and personnel matters in general. More, Mahomes has four seasons where he was higher in yards than Allen has ever been, right? His three SB wins must be in those seasons, right? Nope. In only one of those four great passing yardage total seasons did the Chiefs win a title. Two of their titles came in years when he was unspectacular. Again, you don't win titles by making sure your QB gets a lot of passing yards. You win titles by making sure your team, as a whole, is better. Proof? I went and looked at the list you are pulling from there, rankings of the best seasons in NFL history in yardage. Know how many of the top 100 best seasons in NFL history won Super Bowls? You'd have to figure it's a lot, as the team is absolutely at the top of the league in the passing offense portion of the game. But, no. Four of the top 100. I think I got that right, but to help you check, I found Warner 2011, Mahomes 2022, Eli M. 2011 and Stafford in 2021. That's it, out of the top 100 seasons in history. Again, you try to put together the best TEAM. Not the best passing offense. Please expand the part of your post that's just above here. I added in some colored additions, pointing out how things looked very different when you looked at total yards rather than total passing yards. Looking only at total passing yards is directly handicapping the way Josh's numbers look. Anyway, these numbers are yet more reason to point out why the main point is NOT using your resources the best way possible to increase your passing game's effectiveness. An awful lot of non-SB-winners on that list. The main idea is to use your resources the best way possible to increase the effectiveness of your whole team. That will doubtless include using some resources on the passing game but also using high-quality assets such as high picks and more cap space on other areas of the team. Focusing only on the passing game as you are doing here is missing the point. More, those are the lists of their best seasons. How many of those QBs also had plenty of seasons that were considerably worse than those on that list? All of them. What you've got there isn't a list showing a lot of consistency, which is what you are demanding of Allen. It's a list of high points. And Allen's high points fit right in there with the folks on that list. 32nd, 38th and 49th are damn impressive for Allen when you're throwing out his run yards and keeping in mind that he was more of a project than most and his first two years were statistically not very impressive. It is indeed a very complex discussion, and it certainly involves a ton of subjectivity. But what is not subjective is the relative lack of Lombardis on those lists you noted. You spent a lot of time on it, and I appreciate it. It really made me think. But if I had to leave with tw things, it would be that Allen indeed had a down year, but so did Mahomes, and the Chiefs won a Super Bowl. Having a down year in those categories just isn't the most important thing, not especially indicative of likelihood to win titles. And second that if Mahomes has only managed to get in the top three in both categories in two of his six active years, expecting Allen to do it consistently when you're not including his run stats is not reasonable.
  8. Yeah, me too. That's why I ... OK, I guess maybe we're talking past each other. Have a good day, Gunner.
  9. Yes, precisely. In his six drafts, he's twice used a first-rounder on a pass catcher, in Diggs and Kincaid. Would people only have been happy if he'd used three 1sts in his six years? In any case, seems likely we'll use either a 1st or a 2nd this year on a pass catcher if the board falls favorably, which with the large number of good WR prospects seems pretty likely. Heh heh. Fair enough. But why? What would be wrong with bringing in at least one more safety, especially if lower-level FAs are included? Don't feel a need to answer if you don't want to. Beane generally tries to go into the draft with no real needs. Would you be happy going into the draft with our current safeties?
  10. Yeah, maybe. My guess is they're going to bring in at least one vet FA at safety, but not necessarily one they expect to start. We'll see.
  11. All that is certainly possible. Most likely not so with Diggs not being here in 2025, but yeah, possible. WR in round 1 also possible. It'll depend how the draft falls, as it always does.
  12. Good for him. Best of luck to you, Nate, except when you play the Bills.
  13. There is indeed a lot of subjectivity in my posts. Yours too, of course. But certainly in mine also. "KC did have a WR problem," you say? Well, this is both very subjective and very arguable. If the Super Bowl winners have that kind of a problem, I don't mind having that kind of problem. More reasonably, though, is that KC didn't have a problem anymore than we do. I might have gone there until Rashee Rice developed so quickly. He's a solid decent guy. Like the Bills, they certainly have one of the better pass catchers in the league, in Diggs and in Kelce. As for, "given that we have Josh Allen ... we should consistently be in the top three in both," that is pretty much the definition of subjective. The fact is that even with elite QBs a lot don't make the top three in both in any given year than do. Mahomes last year was 6th and 8th, and his team won the Super Bowl. The year before, Mahomes was 1st and 1st and they did NOT won the Super Bowl. The year before, 2021, Mahomes was 4th and 4th and they DID NOT win the Super Bowl. The year before, 2020, 2nd and 4th and they DID win. The year before, 10th and 9th. The year before that 2nd and 1st and they did NOT win. EDIT: I apologize for leaving in the middle of my editing. I left several sentences unfinished and a factual mistake also when I took off for work. Sorry about that. Meant to leave it unposted and finish it later. After returning, I think I've fixed it all. He's been in the league six years and was in the top three in both yards and TDs only two times. Of their THREE Super Bowl wins, Mahomes was in the top in both categories only of those times. You don't win Super Bowls by having the best receiver groups or by being top three in passing yards and TDs. You win Super Bowls by being the best team. Another example: In Brady's last ten years in New England, (five Super Bowls, including three wins) he looks like that: 2019 7th and 13th No Super Bowl 2018 7th and 10th Lombardi winner 2017 1st and 3rd Super Bowl loss 2016 20th and 9th Lombardi winner 2015 3rd and 1st No Super Bowl 2014 10th and 6th Lombardi winner 2013 6th and 11th No Super Bowl 2012 4th and 4th No Super Bowl 2011 2nd and 4th No Super Bowl 2010 8th and 1st Super Bowl loss So Brady, arguably the GOAT and certainly on one of the greatest dynasties of all time, managed to be in the top three of both of those measures two times out of his last ten years in New England. And in neither of those two years did they win a Lombardi, despite three championships during that span. Expecting Allen to "consistently be in the to three in both" measures is both unreasonable and ultimately beside the point. Again, Super Bowls aren't won by having a QB be in the top three in both yards and TDs. They are won by having a really good team.
  14. I think this is fair, but IMO, that fans are not "satisfied with our WRs as an entire unit" is more of a comment on the nature of fans than it is on the WRs. People wouldn't be fully happy till you're like Cincy with Higgins and Chase. And in reality very very few teams manage to get two guys like that. And I'm not sure that's the consensus about Diggs. I'd argue that the consensus is that he MAY have lost a step, or it may have been something else, and that we'll have to see. Is it worthy of criticism that he hasn't drafted a day 1 or 2 WR? No. Particularly when they used one of their first rounders to trade for Diggs, and that another 1st rounder went last year to a guy who looks like a terrific pass catcher, Kincaid, no. I certainly don't think so. If their WR situation absolutely sucked, then that would be a far worse indicator. But we don't suck. We're pretty good but not excellent. Under those circumstances, situations and environments might easily produce better possibilities for improving the team. By the way, Tompsett on Cover1 just said that Matt Harmon on twitter just put out a very good tweet w/ a great review on the Curtis Samuel pickup. If you're on twitter (I'm not), might be worth a look.
  15. We don't have a problem at WR, especially now. We have a chance to raise production if we can somehow bring in another #1. But we don't have a problem, not with Allen throwing to Diggs, a second-year Kincaid and the two new additions. We were 4th in passing yards and 7th in passing TDs. That's not a problem. Certainly there's room for improvement, no question, and in fact most of us do think they're likely to go WR very early in the draft. Our pass catchers were as good as KC's last year. Did they have "a problem"? We don't either. Gabe's loss has probably been just about made up for with the new FAs, IMO. The Bills teams with Beasley and Sanders and Brown, the guys you're referring to as "support type WRs", had terrific passing attacks. If we win the coin flip in the 13 seconds game, we'd've won it. They weren't stopping us. Samuel's a good signing, not a decent one. He had Beasley / Sanders / Brown type production with crap QBs throwing to him, playing across from McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Gotta admit, I hadn't realized he'd run a 4.31 40. The guy can fly. Very much agreed we fans don't change things. We'll see what actually happens down the road. Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it.
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