Thurman#1

It's pretty common to see 5 DBs these days on many plays and sometimes even 6. And these guys get injured reasonably often. They've got delicate hammies and often seem to have leg issues of one kind or another. Not all of them but enough that in many seasons it's an issue for a very fair number of teams. With Gaines back the need is lessened but you can never have too many of those guys and it seems that in many seasons you need more than you think you will.

Twenty years ago an RB not treated as a bell cow might have worried about it, as that was the standard. These days there are so guys who aren't platooned that I don't think it can affect a back's confidence. And I've always thought that when that RB appears to improve late in the game after pounding away for awhile, it's not so much that he's improving as that the defense is exhausted, and any back would look good running against them at that moment. And while I think a 2nd round back would be a major surprise, I fully expect them to bring one in somewhere between the 3rd and 5th. And for him to be pretty good.

Watching games has nothing to do with it, and anyone - you or anyone - assuring us he can't beat 1 on 1s consistently is talking nonsense. I have Game Pass too. And I don't doubt that you know what you're talking about a huge majority of the time, but Star does his job against 1 on 1s with extreme regularity and against double-teams very consistently. He eats blocks and frees LBs. No, he's not wildly athletic and no he isn't as good at getting off blocks as some but he is a very very good space eater. That is what he does to stop the run, he eats blocks and by doing so frees other guys to run to the ball. That's why he's still here and will be for his third year and very possibly his fourth as well. McDermott likes him.

Yeah, it seemed like a money thing to me. A good player with some weaknesses. I didn't see evidence of a free-lancing problem, but some problems with run defense.

I don't know if it will take two seasons. Right now in terms of the 2021 cap, the Pats are 5th in the league in cap space, with $105M free.

My guess is Dalton and I've always thought he's underappreciated. I think they'll be able to be a solid team with Dalton, likely a playoff team. But yeah, Brady was the secret sauce there. I agree with you that the dynasty is over there unless Stidham is a lot better than we think he is.

It's not their philosophy to create a window. Their goal is to be like the Pats, like the Steelers, the teams that are there every year. They've said that every single time they're asked. If there's a window here, no reason to think it's not a fifteen-year window for the length of Allen's career. Yeah, the money situation is nice. But if they're good enough this year to challenge for a title - far from a sure thing, it'll depend on Allen's improvement, on staying healthy, on significant OL improvement as they gel and so on, but if they are ready, this ought to be the first of many years. They're acting like they think it could happen this year. Great. But they show no sign of giving up their long-term goals for short-term opportunities, and that's smart. I expect them to draft with the hope of getting guys who contribute quickly but the expectation of getting guys who will be here for a while. They're building a machine for the long-term.

And Brady had .... oh wait. I'm with Bangarang on this. It's not a great excuse. There are plenty of exceptions. And Brees hasn't by any definition had great receivers through most of his career. Brees was a great QB far before Thomas became a Saint. Who did Brett Favre have the year he was with Minnesota and they lost the conference championship to the Saints? He made Sidney Rice look good, but is Sidney Rice an elite #1? Or the year he was with the Jets and the Jets looked like title contenders till Favre's injury? Cotchery and Coles? Please. Same with Green Bay. He made decent WRs look good, mostly. How about Roethlisberger? Hines Ward was no "#1 elite WR." He had some good WRs on and off, but didn't need one. There are plenty of exceptions. Joe Montana won two of his Super Bowls before Jerry Rice got there. The first Lombardi his WRs were Dwight Clark and Freddie Solomon. In the 2nd championship, he had Dwight Clark, Renaldo Nehemiah, and Freddie Solomon. No receiver had more than 880 yards. Great QBs don't need great WRs. It helps an awful lot if they have them of course, but it's not an absolute necessity by any means. If anything, great QBs create WRs who look like they're elite until and unless they leave that team.

No, you're right, "neither YAC nor throwing open is anything close to be the most important things about successful qbs." But is it an extremely helpful thing that can make a QB and a reciever more dangerous? Well, yeah, it is. And this is a very old point your bring up, but to review, nobody said Tyrod didn't throw over the middle, or nobody with a clue anyway. He threw over the short middle a lot. It was the deep and intermediate middle he didn't throw to, and yes that absolutely was important. You imply that throwing over the deep and intermediate middle would only have added the stats of an extra pass or two a game. And that's not why Tyrod's not being able to throw there was important. It was important for the same reason that Flutie became much more defensible when he became unable to throw the deep outs anymore with age. A deep out or two a game wouldn't have made a significant difference in production. But defenses saw Flutie wasn't throwing there and that allowed them to not cover that area, which let them far better cover the areas he really was throwing to. Same with Tyrod. Teams knew they didn't have to defend the deep and intermediate middle and so they were better able to cover the areas Tyrod was actually throwing to. The most important thing Allen could get better at? No, you're certainly right about that. But improving accuracy enough to hit guys on the run really would make a huge difference for him. My feeling is that he'll never be a wildly accurate QB. Accurate enough to play as well as the similarly inconsistently accurate Cam Newton did when he was playing at his best? Yeah, that seems a very reasonable ask, and would probably be enough to make Allen a successful QB and the Bills very dangerous. Agreed on the deep balls. He was quite a lot better at them his first year, so I think he's got a good shot at being a better deep ball thrower. I was particularly encouraged to see that he and Jordan Palmer were working on that this offseason already, and that Palmer had given Josh a different mindset on the deep balls. "Plant a flag with it and let the receiver run to it," or maybe "Put a pin in the map and let him run to it" ... something like that. Which means precisely that Palmer and Allen are working hard to have Allen throw guys open and advantaged rather than throwing to where they're running.

The Athletic has us picking up Akers in the third: "Round 3, pick 86: Cam Akers, running back, Florida State "In recent years, the Bills have taken a liking to veteran running backs. So far, they haven’t addressed the position in free agency, leaving only T.J. Yeldon behind Devin Singletary in the backfield. At this point, maybe it’s fair to consider Singletary the veteran presence at the position. He’s already looking like a potential star who also sets the right example off the field after having a year to learn from Frank Gore. "Both McDermott and Beane have talked about the need to have multiple backs. This is a deep class at running back, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them dip into the pool of talent at some point. While this may seem early to take a back, [my color and bolding] Florida State’s Cam Akers presents a lot of value. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as a third-round pick in his latest mock draft and he may be too good to pass up there. His attacking style could be a nice complement to the shifty, patient Singletary." https://theathletic.com/1700219/2020/03/25/bills-seven-round-mock-draft-how-free-agency-shook-things-up/ Now, see, this would make sense, if Akers is still there, which would be far from a sure thing. What really is all but a sure thing is that there'll be good value at RB in this draft through the 3rd, 4th and 5th round. It's a good seven-round mock, OL Wanogho in the 2nd, and edge rusher Willekes in the 4th, among others. That would be sweet.

Yes, I guess we agree on that. He was good, not very good. And was by no means a wasted pickup for the Bills. He was indeed a second round guy, but he absolutely did not live up to that, which was why the Pack cut him after his third year. Picking him in the second round was a mistake. Getting him on a backup contract as a free agent was a great move. So doing what I want us to do here, picking up a solid guy as an FA, was a great move for the Bills. And doing what you want us to do, drafting Kenny Davis, a guy who has what you and I both want in a platooning second RB, in the 2nd round, was a bad move by the Pack. Exactly.

No, I didn't forget Kenneth Davis. He's a perfect example of what I'm saying, that you don't need two very good backs. Davis was a good back. Not very good. He was good. You look at how he looked when he wasn't running behind the Bills absolutely excellent OL and spelling Thurman against defenses Thurman had already worn out, and it wasn't that great. 4.0 yards a carry in his first three years in the league in Green Bay. The Packers cut him after three years. The best offer he got was Buffalo where Thurman (already there for a year) was clearly going to get most of the snaps. I really liked Kenny Davis, he was an important part of that team, but he wasn't very good. Then in Buffalo, fresh later in the games and running behind Jim Ritcher, Kent Hull and the rest, suddenly he manages 4.4 YPC the rest of his career. A good back in a good situation. He was a fine back, but he wasn't among, say, the top ten to twenty backs in the league, a reasonable definition of "very good." If there is an injury, I would be perfectly happy with someone like Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Devonta Freeman, Ty Montgomery, available good free agents sitting at home sweating as their projected contracts shrink, or a rookie like 247 pound AJ Dillon, who ran a 4.52 40 at the combine, or Lamical Perine, Joshua Kelley, Darrynton Evans, Scottie Phillips, or Ke'Shawn Vaughn. I'm plenty confident in Beane to look at that group and find a good solid pro running back, which is what the Bills need. He found Singletary in the 3rd, and this is a much better year for backs. And again, no, I'm with Beane, as a BPA guy. The guy absolutely desperate for a running back in the 2nd, whoever he is ... that's the guy who's desperate to fill his need. You know, the guy so desperate for an RB that he runs over to a thread about edge rushers and does his best to kidnap the thread so he can talk more about his 2nd round RB obsession. That's need. I could see them going RB in the 2nd if it's BPA, say if Taylor or Dobbins fell to us and was clearly the BPA. I just don't think that's very likely.

Yeah, their third and one guys are Allen and Singletary, who was terrific at converting third downs. Thing is, there's no rush. There are 6 or 7 FAs who are legitimately solid RBs sitting and watching their prices go down, and this year is a terrific year for RB depth. There are like 15 guys who look like they can play in the NFL right away.in this draft. It's a terrific year to be looking for a relief back. A guy like Dillon from BC weighs 247 and runs a 4.53 at the combine and was outrageously productive and this year 's RB class is so good he'll probably be available in the 4th. Lamical Perine would be great in the 3rd or 4th, or Joshua Kelley somewhere around the 4th now that he ran a 4.49 at the combine. Looks like 2020 will be looked back at as a great year for RBs, a year where even more than usual you could get starter-quality guys in the mid-rounds.

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett? In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct. As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects in rounds 3 - 5. I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th. We'll see, I guess.

What Beane has actually showed is that he will spend lower draft picks to move up ... under certain circumstances. Specifically, he'll spend those lower picks if he has two picks in a round and can give one up while keeping a pick in each round. He's only emptied a round twice, both times when he's already had an extra pick earlier (he emptied the 4th round last year when he'd already made four picks in the first three rounds, and he emptied the 2nd round in 2018 when he'd already had two picks. I haven't looked, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we now have no extra picks to trade away this year without creating empty rounds. He has no history on doing this.