Bleeding Bills Blue

Not to mention FURTHER - he's coming off an absolutely terrible season.

The chiefs ran that stupid play before the half that didn't score and ran out of time - which in a 3 point game is kind of important.

Oh yea... He's a gator roll guy too

Massive target share, high catch %, and he even had 10 TDs (5 in the red zone). In PPR he's just a monster, but even in non-ppr 1500 yards is awesome. If he's healthy his floor is among the best of all WRs.

So... is he not a corner?

Tight end is a high "miss" spot - But there aren't a ton of huge busts. Greg Olsen is considered a "miss" in this exercise, as are TJ hockenson and Evan Engram. I also don't feel like going through all of it to determine who in the "hits" should be considered a miss. It's also a position that has evolved considerably so probably not a great example, but i figured its one of the smallest numbers so easiest to find the discrepancies. Misses (didn't sign 2nd contract with team that drafted them) - OJ Howard Hayden Hurst Noah Fant - Traded before the 5th year option year to get a QB TJ Hockenson - Traded because they didn't want to extend him because he was going to set the market at TE Engram - Good example of the guy throwing you the ball making a difference Ebron Gresham Keller Olsen - Played like 15 years for Carolina Watson Winslow - Signed richest TE contract in history after trade Graham Stevens Becht Hits Njoku Eifert Pettigrew Lewis Davis Miller Clark Shockey Heap Franks

There is a lot to pore through when it comes to this type of data. I think a few things can be made clear 1 - Draft classes are not created equal across the board, but even more so at specific positions. 2021 for example didn't look to have much when it came to talent graded as 1st rounders across the board. 2 - Teams overdraft for need. "we need a big body" "we need speed" etc. Falling in love with a trait over a player. 3 - It doesn't make sense to compare trends of where players are picked. I'd more look at previous drafts as trying to get an understanding of how GM's move on the board. You grade prospects every year against each other, but also against previous year players as well. Like i don't care where Bateman was picked, what grade did we have on him and what did we see him as? 4 - The big board where you grade prospects regardless of position is where you'd want to identify your own personal hit/miss rate. Why did we grade basham over humphrey? Did we even have them graded in that order? Did we double down at End for a specific reason? Was it a reach?

Fun fact... all chaps are ass-less if you don't wear anything underneath 🙂

There's a fair number of misses in the top half of the drafts too. And some of these were just... bad WR classes. Kevin white in the top 10. Corey coleman in the top 15. Devante parker in the top 15. Corey Davis at 5. John Ross at 9. 2018 and 2019 didn't even have guys going in the top half of the first. I don't think its in this data, but neither did 2023. 2020 Ruggs can be considered a bust. 2021 was a top heavy group. I don't think many teams had toney and bateman as 1st round grades. It was also just... a bad draft in general as it followed the covid season. 2022 - 5 dudes in the top 16. So Burks is probably a bust - but he was the 6th one off the board in a pretty solid top 4.

Do you mean the first round? I believe we traded up for Shakir. Also they traded up for Zay Jones.

This ignores plenty of top 16 misses in some of the same years. Like yes Agholor isn't an amazing player, but kevin white never even played. Will fuller had some really bad injury luck - but corey coleman was straight up bad at football.

It all depends what we do on Thursday I think. If we move up, then i don't think there's really a path to getting 4 picks in the first 100. If we stand pat, i think 2025 picks are very much in play. If we move down, i hope we get enough to get 4 guys in that first 100 picks to be able to keep all of our 2025 picks. The projected (i'll only believe it if they're literally in our hands) 4th and 5th round comp picks look ok for 2025 if that factors in at all on what draft picks may be in play in any trade scenarios. It looks right now like 1-2-2-3-4-4-5-6-6. 9 picks, with 6 in the first 4 rounds. https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

53M dead cap hit for wilson... plus 32 in 2025. Figure thats your QB hit so... you can build the rest of a team. What you can't do is find an adequate QB for cheap.

We signed Mack Hollins for the league minimum basically. They can't carry 2 ST only WRs so either you pick the better WR or the better special teamer. Injuries happen though so he's a definite possibility.

I think its hard to rank where the players ended up getting picked and determining hit rate. Ideally you would compare similar players and profiles and the grades that you have on them and look there at where you might have been wrong. What makes Collins a hit and bateman a miss? etc. Sometimes you'll be like - bro had trash QBs, or trash coaches, or whatever. But thats i think how i would look at it.

I used to prefer the saturday sunday format. I guess this gives them more eyeballs though.

I think they like tolbert more than most people. However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.

I still think he's better than both of our safeties - who both signed for backup money. They get 10M in space come june 1st. Post-draft i think they'll have a better idea on what they want to do with that money. If they get 2 WRs in the draft and they're comfortable rolling with that group, maybe a free agent WR is less of a priority. Mocks have been pointing to a safety for buffalo, but we'll know more in a week or so. I personally don't think they're done at safety be it draft or free agency. Obviously hyde is out there, but so are Simmons, Jackson, Diggs, Adams etc. There's still a ton of dudes out there.

I don't trade him for literally anything. I'd trade his #1 WR. I'd fire the HC and GM - he's only ever worked with the 2 we have so i'd be willing to take my chances with allen and new people over giving the staff free reign to build from the ground up. I know its hypothetical. But i'd rather start over with josh than use him to get assets to start over.

It was more a lack of a comment: Butler and Bills 2022 first-round draft pick Kaiir Elam never seemed to get on the same page since the former Florida product entered the league. At locker cleanout back in January after the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs, Elam expressed his frustration with a disappointing second season. Elam said he had a great offseason but ultimately lost the competition for the starting number-two cornerback spot and only played in three regular season games (two starts). When asked about how much he leaned on now former DBs coach Butler, Elam responded with: “No comment.”

They did hire a new coach for the corners (addae), and there is a new defensive coordinator in place (babich). Previous secondary coach John Butler was also the "passing game coordinator", and Elam's post-season comments seemed to indicate that they may have butted heads a bit.

Last time there was a historically deep WR class we acquired Diggs. 6 WRs went in the first - Ruggs - Bust for off-field Jeudy - Not a full-on bust, but not nearly the impact of others in this class Lamb - All-pro Raegor - Bust Jefferson - All-pro Aiyuk - 2nd team all-pro last year, and has grown into a great player Next 2 off board were Higgins and Pitman. Both very good players. Best of the rest was probably Mooney and Gabe Davis. Any number of reasons can be why a player doesn't hit though. Ruggs made very bad choices, and his career is done. Claypool doesn't want to put in the effort to become a good player. Hamler just kept getting injured - and has a heart condition. Yeah, makes sense. Take the 5th year option, convert it to a bonus and spread it over the term (plus void years).

I don't think the Smith extension even starts right away either as he had a 5th year option for 2025. More just making sure to put the number in the books now so you know what it is for later, and to prevent drama/holdouts. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/yearly/cap/ I enjoy cap financials, but this is very confusing. They structure their contracts with option bonuses that automatically add void years.

Arm talent and athleticism can get you far in college - in the NFL everyone has arm talent and i'd say most QBs today have some level of athleticism. Between the ears pre and post snap, how you throw on the run and under pressure, how you sense pressure in general, how you manipulate the defense, how you manipulate passing windows, etc. That seems to be the part that most scouts get wrong, and probably the hardest part to evaluate and project at the next level.

He (like levi wallace before him) never developed the ball skills to be relied upon for more than depth in a zone scheme. He tackles well, and does an OK job of disrupting the catch point - he had a rough year last year in this regard but a lot of them were really good catches honestly. I wonder how much of that was a lack of athleticism causing him to play a bit more off coverage to prevent being beat deep on those cover 3/4/6 looks. In man coverage i don't think he had the speed or size to be able to play much effective under coverage, and definitely isn't consistently getting his head around to make a play.