Bleeding Bills Blue

While i mostly agree that he was not very good last year, there are things... we as fans don't see. How often he was open and should've been targeted, his performance as a blocker on run and pass plays, etc.

The bills defense plays worse in the playoffs. I would say there's flaws in the argument that they are SO much worse than everyone else - main one being quality of competition. Home/Road splits is another piece worth warranting. All I was saying was that defenses have better numbers against bad offenses, which the post i referred to stated. My conclusion was that every defense performs better against bad offenses.

What did i say that was factually not close? That every defense in the league has better metrics when they play bad teams? Because that was the crux of the argument. The pass rushing example is just a reinforcement stats are padded against lousy competition. EPA doesn't factor in quality of competition, just whether points were added or lost based off of the performance of the defense - and this reflects that. If the EPA is higher than it should be based on an easier schedule or just generally padding stats against bad teams, the difference between playoff performance and non-playoff performance is greater. If players are injured down the stretch, it would also likely reflect a greater difference between non-playoff and playoff.

I feel like this exercise translates to regular season as well. It also translates to basically every team in the league to a point. I feel like if you look at any top pass rusher in the last 5 years and tell me they didn't pad their stats against a bad team. I remember wondering what we were going to do to replace the 10.5 sacks Floyd put up, and its like well... he had 1 sack after 11/19, none in the playoffs. 3 combined against Wilson/Boyle, 2 against Sam Howell, 2 against Lawrence, and 1 against Tyrod.

He's also 34-35 at a position where you get your ankles and knees chopped at constantly. He seems a lot slower than even 2 years ago.

I think its also a very weird, very poorly regulated market. They regulate supplements like they are food, not medicine. So the actual use and effectiveness is measured by the manufacturer, and its also pretty easy to just put whatever you want in it and leave it off the label. End of the day - he didn't go to a team doctor to ask for their recommendation about whether something unapproved was in the product he was using. I found this quote to be kind of interesting though: FDA does test some dietary supplements but we’re talking about a marketplace of over 100,000 products and we have limited resources to analyze the composition of dietary supplements. Because of this, we focus our resources first on public health emergencies and products that may have caused injury or illness. At that point, we prioritize products that we suspect to be adulterated, fraudulent, or otherwise in violation of the law. The remaining resources are used to analyze product samples collected during inspections of manufacturing facilities or pulled from store shelves as part of FDA’s routine monitoring of the marketplace. FDA does not test dietary supplements before they are sold to consumers. If consumers would like an analysis of a product’s content, they may contact the dietary supplement manufacturer or a commercial laboratory on their own. https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/fdas-regulation-dietary-supplements-dr-cara-welch

Overrated i guess is fine - He did have like 300 catches and 4000 yards prior to Mahomes playing though. Most players who have played against him say he's deceptively fast, and a tremendous route runner for someone who's 6'5 250. He creates space to sit down by having an elite knowledge on player leverage and how to use his body to create space. His 17 game average for playoffs is 121 catches for 1413 yards and 14 TDs, with a 80.9% catch rate. I think its easy to say he's washed based off of last seasons production, but he's also 35 and thats ignoring 2016-2022 where he made 4 1st team all-pro's and averaged 96/1229/8 TDs. To credit Reid and Mahomes with making HIM better, ignores the fact that his skill-set has been moving the chains and scoring TDs for that team since 2014.

I can't stand Mike Florio.

That 5th year option price basically makes it only available to teams who have another contract to send back.

The thing i like about him in an "11" look is YAC though. Either with him as a harder player to tackle, or blocking downfield. Tight ends just add an element of nastiness and physicality that you don't get with a full speed attack. Adding some new man beater players definitely helps against teams that want to man up and blitz, but i think coleman's probably the biggest x-factor this season against those looks. If he can become a problem in 1x1's You can also motion him across and pin defensive ends in trap like run plays which can allow you to get a tackle moving across the formation. Get knox and the tackles moving up field to create running lanes, while hiding a weaker blocker. It also tends to create challenges in play action looks that should help create space for him to operate.

I just think when someone quotes catch% and says look how bad it was - there's nuance to it.

Yeah - 25 uncatchable targets out of 75 feels high. I feel like Keon also had a number of uncatchable ones.

It's just based on the grades that PFF put together. Bernard didn't have a good year by his own standards, and a very poor year by PFF's standards.

I thought it was stupid and arbitrary back then as well. I also felt it was bad to track that kind of thing because its just not helpful, the absolute negativity of buffalo sports media. I don't mind calling out when players play well or poorly, but it is a practice session - The QB is not in danger. This is hugely influential in the "controlled" element of practice that makes a guy like peterman look great.

I think a cheap shot implies some level of intent to injure or aiming for someone's head. He wasn't head hunting, he was actually playing the ball which is far from "cheap". Was he late? Yes, because his recovery speed is gone. Was it reckless? Yes, you shouldn't be diving like a missile at a receiver trying to make a catch. There will be big hits and violent collisions, it is football. But cheap stuff to me is usually head hunting, or late hits.

Im not sure if was a "cheap shot", as I think he's just attempting to disrupt the catch point (because he was late to play the ball -being bad/slow is not cheap). However he lead with the crown of his helmet to a defenseless player and it resulted in a penalty/fine.

It's tough, but this could potentially be the one or two of the guys on the practice squad.

Someone commented - he has more rings than your entire franchise and my response was: "Does it still count if he has to pawn it off to pay child support?"

I mean... being hated is better than the irrelevancy of the drought. I'll say this though - Buffalo treats opposing fans really well, including people who have disparaged them in the past.

And the 9-8 division winner usually played two of the harder divisions, while a 12-5 wildcard team probably played weaker divisions, or was a 3rd/4th place finisher the year before and gets 3 weaker uncommon divisional opponents because of that. You get 6 divisional games which is usually going to be the difference in a division race, win 5 or 6 of those and you probably win your division every time.

I mean... i was at that Patriots @ Bills game in 2018. A friend of mine was on the field pre-game because he was on the USS Buffalo that was being decommissioned. I remember smoking a cigarette late in the 4th quarter of a completely empty 300 section, the usher/security did not seem to acknowledge or care. I do not remember anything Derek Anderson did in that game 🙂

I don't think it has to be Codrington, but i do think they need someone back there returning punts and he's dirt cheap. After spending on guys like Harty, Hines, Crowder, Mckenzie, and Roberts, they were able to get a returner for a 2026 6-7 pick swap. Considering returning punts was just about the only part of the teams unit that had a good year, I'm personally a bit reluctant to move on without an upgrade or plan.

It's tough - maybe lewis can find a market? Every team currently has like 12 corners though, and they will have them all through camp. Also there's like 30 corners drafted in 2025, a ton more UDFA's, free agents, etc. So you have to feel really good about grabbing another player - especially when they're 28, undersized, not particularly effective on defense, and they don't return. Like are you willing to sacrifice a 23 year old 6th round pick boundary corner to waivers? Snaps on special teams are great, but end of the day the units were not very good last year. 5th highest KR allowed average, 16th in PR allowed average, 26th in KRs, 8th in PRs. They also had a punt blocked.

Yeah, i think while he's smaller - he sheds better, blitzes better, and shoots better. Edmunds was a bit better of a fit defender than shooting his gaps to make plays (Like he's blocked, but he's not "moved" like bernard might be), and i think from a sideline speed standpoint he was better equipped to limit edge gains. Considering the quality of QB in the AFC though, I'd say the value you get in creating havoc, negative plays, and turnovers is more valuable than what Edmunds offered.

To me it's limitations in the defensive checks, and soft spots in the zones. In quarters for example the boundary defender has a quarter of the field to defend, the safety has another quarter, the nickel has an underneath third, and MLB would have middle 3rd. In the scenario that Kelce was "abusing" edmunds - you might have a slot WR cutting across the front zones, which requires the nickel or will to pass that receiver to the mike who picks up the underneath receiver, the boundary receiver runs a post meaning boundary corner passes to safety and looks for underneath work on his quarter. Kelce might fake the out into that quarter and then go in behind the NB/Will and find a window between the mike. The safety has been cleared out, the corner has the sideline, and the linebackers are in conflict. Now add in the RPO element where you can just hand it off right away or attack that window. Now add in a wrinkle of jet motion from the opposite sideline - that can make the window even larger by forcing the NB/Will to account for that motion off the LOS. Or create mis-matches - Hardman covered by a LB, or Kelce covered by TJ. Buffalo needs to be able to play more effetive man coverage in a lot of these scenarios, as well as do a better job disguising the coverages.