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  1. Shootout style game where Buffalo jumps ahead early and never relents the lead but Miami is always within a few points to tie or take the lead. Allen puts the Bills back up late with a TD to Diggs making it 31-27 with 1:00 left. Miami gets to midfield but Milano gets an INT on a forced throw on 3rd down at the Buffalo 30 to end it. Allen 24-32 301 3 TDs 28 yds rush Cook 71 yds rush 15 attempts Diggs 145 yds 8 rec 1 TD
  2. Which is fine as a rookie I expect him to get better at that. But facts remain he is actually doing well and my expectation is he grows and becomes a far better weapon by seasons end.
  3. Andddd this is why I hate fans. Four weeks into the season people take massive brush strokes on rookies with no thinking behind it or giving time for things to play out. -Kincaid is third on the Bills in receptions and yards -He is pacing for the 5th most receptions ever by a rookie TE -Only two rookie TEs ever have even broke 1000 yards and just five have broke 800 yards -11 TE's in the history of the NFL as a rookie have broken 600 yards, by comparison 6 rookie WRs last year broke 600 yards. It is a legitimately difficult position to learn and integrate a new player year one. -The Bills offense is still working in many new pieces at this point it is far from a finished product -If you watch All 22 Kincaid is open 24/7 and doing his part, Josh is building trust and learning to find him. The Jets game Kincaid could've had a 100 yards easily if Josh stopped playing hero ball -Plenty of players as rookies come on hot and hit the rookie wall, others take their time in the first half of the season and find their wings
  4. Can 100% see something weird like this happening, but man it would be kind of a let down just because I am hoping for a shootout.
  5. My thoughts: Surprises -Houston and Arizona have some real fight with Stroud looking quiet good and the sum of parts playing being the means in the desert -I thought Miami would be good to quite good this year but the level they are pacing is truly impressive -I had the Jags as a top seed and they look like a work in progress again. Plenty of time, but the longer they don't string some wins together the more open they leave the division to someone else -Overall level of play is very much towards defenses to start the year and there has been some very sloppy football. -Green Bay has already played better then I thought and maybe a wildcard is possible -Injuries. I can't remember a season so early on with the level of just awful injuries to start and to such high profile players. Rodgers Chubb & now Mike Williams (still a shock regardless of past) plus Burrow still being down has certainly been a lot. -LA Rams, very early and things can change but they look like maybe a wild card race could happen Expected -Never bought the Bears hype although this implosion is bordering on cleaning the coaching staff and starting fresh. They are approaching really rudderless in terms of direction. This team badly needs an outside football guy to step in as president of operations with a true plan to right the ship. -Regressing to the mean sucks for teams and the Vikings and Giants are learning the hard way. I had MIN as a playoff team but the 7th seed WC and for the reason they are showing. Not sure at 0-3 if they can dig out. The Giants I think over achieved big time last year like the Bills in 2017 and now life is hard when your talent isn't as high as you thought. Long term still buy in for Daboll and crew but I can easily see 6-11 on the horizon. -The Ravens look good even if they are never allowed players to avoid catastrophic injuries, still think they finish like 12-5 -49ers with a competent QB is really interesting. Cannot wait to see them take on PHI healthy this year -One month in and the Lions are slowly climbing the ladder like we all thought for their first division crown. Thursday isn't a must win but they can send a solid message to the rest of the division.
  6. Yesterday the differences in QB play really came out of the woodwork and highlighted the good to bad. The Jets are wasting a playoff caliber roster because they keep sticking with Zach Wilson while the Bears have imploded about as bad as any team in a long while and the hype from preseason did not help that cause. After seeing Mahomes opposite Justin Fields at the same time I started thinking what makes some guys make and other fail or seem to never have a chance. We saw front row until Josh years of ineptitude at developing guys drafted and then success with Allen. These are the factors thinking over the history of football that I have found to be controllable things teams do that help with a QB having a true chance to develop and stick: Build the offense to a QBs strengths- When the Bills drafted Allen you knew the guy could rip it with the best but his accuracy was dicey at times. Lamar was a tremendous two way talent but the team lacked infrastructure to bomb the ball. Buffalo after year one got a guy who could catch anything anywhere in Beasley and a burner in Brown who couldn't be overthrown. Both maxed areas Allen had strength in but needed assistance. When Lamar started in Baltimore they basically altered the entire offense to his running approach and attacking in that style when they passed. When Peyton started in IND year 2 they added weapons who could run timing routes that he could pick apart with and they used his brain to maximize the creativity he offered. Watching Fields struggle you see a QB who they do not use his mobility, they don't scheme or use play action enough, and don't let him rip it. If your QB excels at fast quick read slants, crosses, etc.. you just aim for pass catchers with speed and good hands. Conversely if you want to air the ball out with a big arm getting a guy with size and jump is going to help. Year 1 for many rookies is a burn it type year, but year 2 the most successful examples of QB play seem to truly focus on a QBs best attributes and go with it. Great Pass Protection- The history of football is littered with guys like David Carr or Tim Couch drafted early and then who got beat up so bad you will never know what they might have been able to do. Andrew Luck was a can't miss prospect and he did perform to that level but the lack of line play wrecked the long term future of what could've been an all time great. All QBs benefit from good line plan, but giving young QBs time is so crucial as they develop as passers and to eliminate bad habits. Additionally it allows a more fair analysis of what you have so you are not left saying "its hard to know because the pocket collapsed in one second". Coverage for defense's can only hold for so long and even if your skill guys are not the best, giving the QB time to go through reads should open something up. Maximizing The Rookie Contract Both Dollar & Time Wise- Generally making a rookie QB sit always feels like a poor decision as you do not know what you have and the growing pain time is real. Mahomes was different as he was brought into a QB friendly offense on a team that was competing so he was afforded the chance to wait for a bit. Same with Jordan Love where he had to sit behind a good established starter. But if you are a team on the rebuild what is gained by waiting? Rookie contracts are gold especially for QBs and you are only delaying a possible window from opening to compete faster. Baker Josh Lamar all were on the field and by year 2 the teams had invested pieces and time for them. The moment Russell Wilson took the Seahawks starting spot back in 2012 the Seahawks gained years of cap space at the most important position which they used properly on the rest of the roster. Year 2 cannot be an extension of year 1 and most failures at QB feel like situations where excuses are made and the learning in year 1 was never complete. Sean McVay took a beleaguered Jared Goff in year 2 and managed to maximize his skills as they added talent around him to win. Year 2 Jalen Hurts they found a way to take a next step both scheme and talent wise with. With you best QBs and success at the position there is a proper building period and timing that factors into their growth, when it fails it usually comes with mismanaged time and resources. Everyone One From Top Down is Lock Step With The New QB & The Plan- There are very few examples of rookies drafted year 1 and then year 2 a new head coach is in with a lot of success. That doesn't mean down the road the OC or head coach cannot change, but given how crucial the development of young passers is in years 1/2/3 that type of instability destroys young QBs the majority of the time. One of the things I appreciate the Steelers have done at QB is show patience across the board and universally back that player. When Big Ben started he took his time and lumps but no one was coaching for their job or looking to move out of plan quickly. Pickett may or may not be the guy, but again they have backed him as the guy across the board and he isn't wondering what is happening to Tomlin or if someone is going to take his spot. Conversely Fields was drafted by a different QB/GM and then had to do year 1 again with another head coach and then another GM. EJ Manuel for the Bills it felt like half the organization wanted and the other half wanted an average vet to try and win with at that time. Neither was necessarily wrong thinking wise in a vacuum, but a rookie QB will feel the lack of rope to make mistakes and the team will feel then inability to compete if two trains are running in different ways. Coaching Scheme Is Progressive aka With The Times- The NFL is a league that wants you to pass and rewards you for it. There is nothing wrong when a QB is taking their lumps having a scheme that may be a bit conservative especially if your team is having some success. Brady was good with the Pats early on, but the offense was not game breaking either in the early 2000s. He and NE evolved as the league did though as he showed he could handle and do more so that is fine for a time. But looking at Mac Jones last year how the heck would you know what he can or cannot do with that scheme. It was like going back to the late 90s and so brutally basic and void of creativity your wasting your time. The best offensive coaches are constantly evolving to help their passers in scheme and finding ways to create separation and holes vs the defense your playing. Kliff Kingsbury faded with the cardinals, but at least his first two years with Murray he was running an offense in the style of what was working best conceptually in the NFL. We have the ability with All 22 now to see far easier whether a OC is scheming well or not so much and there will always be a need for constant evolution in the NFL as the games grow and defenses adjust. The move where most teams are playing 2 safeties high all the time now on defense to stop big plays is the result of a decade plus worth of passing that feasted on ill prepared secondary's.
  7. Oh I’m fully expecting a reply or a thread on “the worst wins of McD” and why he didn’t deserve any of them hahaha
  8. So apparently it will be 100 games for McD on Sunday which is pretty cool and also wild its been that long. Jay Skurski had a nice piece on the 100 game mark and his top 5 games for McD which prompted me to create this with my best games by him and what yours might be. Honorable Mentions- 2017: Week 4 at Atlanta // Bills win 23-17. Buffalo during the drought had pulled a few impressive wins at home, but on the road was nope. With a trash bag roster McD and crew got to 3-1 and upset the NFC Champs. It felt different once that happened. 2017: Week 12 at KC // Bills win 16-10: Three straight losses including the failed Peterman "Experiment in LA" had the Bills backs against their wall. For many we had seen this before new coach who starts hot and it flames out. Instead in a not necessarily exciting game the Bills just did their job. 2020: Divisional Round Ravens at Bills // Bills win 17-3: The Bills held the prior years MVP in check throughout and then knocked him out. 2022: Week 6 at KC // Bills win 24-20: I will just say I wish I could've seen this team healthy in the playoffs because I think a healthy Bills team with Von and a functioning secondary would've made a true run. Anyway this was a prize fighter type game and the team played up to it especially after 13 seconds. 2022: Week 16 at Chicago // Bills win 35-13: The season at this point really had felt exhausting and long between injuries and uncontrollable off the field things. The Bills clinched their third straight division with far less excitement then prior years, but in a sense more appreciative given the hurdles thrown at them. 5. 2021 Wildcard Weekend // Bills smoke Patriots 47-17: Even though the Bills won in NE to take the division at seasons end the talking heads still were giving NE a lot of props that they might take the Bills out again. Buffalo put down for good any upstart ideas and that the division for the future went through Buffalo. Master class across the lineup of destroying your opponent. 4. 2019 Week 15 Bills at Steelers win 17:10: The Bills clinched their 2nd appearance without luck just earning it the old fashion way. His D made work of Duck Hodges and Allen and crew did enough on offense on SNF to get the post season punched. 3. 2020 Week 15 Bills at Denver win 48-19: The Bills clinched their first division title in over two decades blowing the doors off the wall and having a fun time doing it. Buffalo was the division favorite entering the season, but you got to prove and earn it for things to truly change and they did that day. 2. 2017 Week 17 Bills at Phins win 22-17: The drought died and he did a superb job guiding that team capped off with the Kyle Williams TD. 1. 2019 Thanksgiving Bills at Dallas win 26-15: This may be the moment after all the years of the drought that stamped Buffalo is back. 17' was fun and nice to end the playoff drought. Irrelevancy though ended on this day and it felt like kicking a door in saying "hi yea were back". Every element of the team did its part and it was as complete a win as any.
  9. Bills 27 Commanders 16 Buffalo has a controlled smothering type effort against the Commanders as they dictate the game from start to finish harassing Howell throughout.. WSH puts up a spirited fight as the teams go into half 14-10, but an Allen 40 yard bomb to Gabe Davis open the score to 21-10. The Bills get a fumble which sets up a bass FG to go up 24-10. The Commanders get a FG late 3rd and again in the 4th but the Bills drain the clock before a penalty erases a FG chance. 24-16 WSH tries to tie late but Howell is picked by Hyde and Bass ices the game at 27-16 with 1:30 to go. Allen 25-33 305 1 TD 37 yds rush 1 TD Murray 55 yds 1 TD 8 att Davis 111 yds 4 rec
  10. To me sports media is very fractured at this point. Major networks like ESPN have moved away from what we liked with sportscenter to be quasi talk shows because enough people care more about the drama then the sports. But everyone copies that so you just have redundancy and no originality either. Factor in then that there is superb media options with podcasts or streamed shows like Pat McCaffee or PFT or work from people at the athletic and its has eroded the pie where I don't think you ever see one dominant program again or network. I personally ignore the Steve As or Skip or Colin because their all the same. It is for clicks and viewers not the truth or anything remotely of substance.
  11. My playoff entering season: AFC division BUF KC JAX CIN // wc NYJ MIA BAL NFC division DAL SEA ATL MIN // wc SF PHI DET
  12. My bad PHI. I think with their schedule being a little tougher and DAL looking the best they have in years they end up WC.
  13. Yea Jets I can understand that. It's why non bias wise if the Jets could actually trade for just a decent game manager like Brissett or something I think they can jump back in the race to some degree. Titans I just think are a team in transition but I always underrate them I think. NFC haha yea if you said the playoffs were DAL SF ATL DET division winners and wild card PHI TB LA I wouldn't even bat an eye.
  14. We are two weeks in so some things have settled, some haven't, and the future is still very open. I am going to try and do this semi regularly because it is fun, as always agree, disagree, call me an idiot etc... AFC See You In January Kansas City- The offense looks a bit more mortal finally, BUT the defense looks really good and apparently no one in that division has any interest in competing with them Baltimore- Despite injuries they look very impressive and Lamar finally has some competent weapons which is a nice change. Buffalo- Ships righted, stack some wins before the backhalf and when Von returns the D-line will be terrifying. Miami is a problem for the division though. Miami- Playoff team who when Tua has time is the most fun offense in football. 2nd half showed the limitations a bit* to Tua once pressure develops and the precision passing is paused Jacksonville- KC always brings the worst out of teams especially upstart contenders. Regardless their schedule is cakewalk and 12-5 could be the 1 seed 0-2, But Talent Right...Right!? LA Chargers- Same thing new season and I am sure week 18 they will be 8-8 or 9-7 with a chance to get in via Tiebreaker or win and in... and who the heck knows from there Cincy- Same as last year? Not so fast. Last year Burrow had an off opener but the offense the first two weeks was more dynamic. This calf isn't slowing and while he will play better the division isn't messing around this time. Some Talent, Flawed One Way or Another, But One of Them Is Taking A Playoff Spot Cleveland- Up until Chubb went down I had the Browns marked for a playoff spot just simply because even if Watson is a game manager that running game was amazing. Now? who knows Pittsburgh- Great defense, skill players ok, offense is circa 2009 Dick Jauron level bad. But Tomlins teams always finish near .500 Denver Broncos- They have already looked markedly better, but they just lost two winnable and needed chances at home. Better then their record but still feels like they finish 8-9 and say if only Coaching Is There, Talent Isn't To Go The Distance New England- Honestly their defense is pretty decent and then you watch the offense which at least has competent strategies and see they have no one who has any major blue chip talent. 0-2 already and lacking the guns for future matchups against KC/DAL/BUF/PHI/MIA Tennessee- Vrabel gets a lot out of this bunch, but even in a lightweight division their not stacking up enough wins to make the dance even if it gets close for a bit. NY Jets- Unless they get Jacoby Brissett or competent starter their going to where out regardless of how good the defense is and the good RBs they have that will get some points for them. Rodgers out is just such a killer for them. Draft 24' Indy- Richardson certainly his some skills and could be a real nice starter for them. Las Vegas- This team is wet noodle that will win 5 games and miss out on a top QB in the draft. Houston- Stroud looks pretty decent, but they need to hope the rest of the lineup grows to and gets some Ws because they have no 1st round pick. NFC See You In January Philadelphia- Offense will find its way a little more once Hurts is healed. Secondary might be a little suspect though. San Fran- Most complete lineup outside of QB and Purdy is doing really well at that. Dallas- Maybe its finally the boys year? Should Make It...But Detroit- Defense week 1 85 Bears, defense week 2? 85 Bills defense. This division is wide open they gotta prove they can do this before full faith is given. Seattle- Offense is back in the groove and looks very dynamic. The defense may have some real issues if they can't tighten up plus the Rams might be a WC problem Washington- Offense looks really nice as Howell is not acting like a 1st year esq starter, D line eats people, but the bar of competition has been low. BUF/PHI will be a real test that doesn't necessarily need Ws as much as showing you belong as the rest of the schedule has some very winnable matchups including 6 more at home. Is The NFC South Sending Two Playoff Teams...60% Chance? ATL- Might be the division favorites with their defense playing fine and the offense running through the stadium Tampa Bay- Baker looks decent in a offense that is QB friendly and the defense is stout. Long season but 7-8 wins might do the trick, can they just stay .500 the rest of the way NOLA- Offense should improve once Kamara is back as it looks weaker then the other two, but that defense is not weak One of You Is Making It Despite Attempting Not To Or Being Very Young Minnesota- The luck in one score games really shifted. For realz Kirk looks dare I say really good right now and the offense is going. Hang onto the ball with slightly better D and maybe they make up the deficit. LA Rams- Probably a year too early as the youth is finding its way, but the offense looks better with Stafford healthy and some good young players like Puka could make them really pluky. Green Bay- Love is not awful and has had some really nice moments. Like the Rams maybe a year early but perhaps they can string enough wins to go 9-8 and sneak in. Expectations Preseason Never Matched Reality, They Are Just Not Very Good Chicago Bears- They remind me of the Bills in 2016 where two weeks in everything is burning down and there is not one quick fix. Difference is that Bills team at least had some talent/coaching at points whereas this Bears team still is a work in progress talent wise and the coaching is awful. Fields does not look good, but this is a team effort at atrocious play from top down. New York Giants- Like the Vikings who had all the breaks in 22' the Giants are finding life without luck is tough. They are 1-1, but Barkley is hurt, Jones is still a lukewarm coffee at QB, and the defense has not started well. Daboll is legit as coach, but 6-11 7-10 step back looks very plausible. The one perk is maybe they can get a new rookie QB. Draft 24 Arizona- Gannon looked shaky in preseason but at least two weeks in they are putting up a fight for 60 mins. Lets see what happens late in season when it doesn't matter and Williams could be the prize. Carolina- Young is having growing pains and no one on that offense really moves the needle. The defense will help get them to 4-6 wins, but its a work in progress type year.
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