Which off season QB contract will look the worst by the end of this season?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I don't see how Derek Carr is the lowest on the list...

 

Not saying he's bad, but nearly $40 million a year for Derek Carr? That's a crazy risk imo. 

 

I'm really pulling for him & hope he does well, but I'm just not sure they wouldn't have been better off grabbing a journeyman to fill the spot until they can find a better option.

 

Bad division, good roster. Carr will win 2 division titles in the next 3 years with the Saints if he stays healthy. They are not going to win a Superbowl with him, but they will make the post-season. And the contract is 12th in AAV among QBs.... and I think Carr is the 12th or 13th best QB in football. It kinda seems fair to me. 

 

Now there is a point, that has been made multiple times that the QB market has a considerable inefficiency that it doesn't allow for a big enough gap payment wise between the elite and the good. But taking a bad journeyman QB and hoping to eek out some wins is a much worse strategy that accepting 3 years of Derek Carr when you are in a division that is there for the taking unless Bryce Young emerges as a superstar. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I voted for Carr. He's getting older and has a lot of wear and tear on his body. Not mobile at all. He's just average at best. 

Most 4th quarter comebacks in the league since 2015

[Augie]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Rodgers because I genuinely think he will only play 1 year. If the Jets get to the Superbowl in that 1 year its value, but I am not sure they will and as such a one year splurge that will cause them huge pain in 2024. 

 

That’s the way I voted, but honestly it was mostly because that’s the way I want it to turn out. Either way, if I’m a Jet’s fan I don’t feel great about the cost of having Rodgers without knowing what you are getting in terms of years and commitment.  After the season the Jets fans will have to wait to see if he will bless them with his presence again. 

 

I suspect Daniel Jones will look like the correct answer by Christmas.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That’s the way I voted, but honestly it was mostly because that’s the way I want it to turn out. Either way, if I’m a Jet’s fan I don’t feel great about the cost of having Rodgers without knowing what you are getting in terms of years and commitment.  After the season the Jets fans will have to wait to see if he will bless them with his presence again. 

 

I suspect Daniel Jones will look like the correct answer by Christmas.

 

The only way I see Rodgers coming back for year 2 is like a heartbreaking AFC Title loss. I think he might then think "right one more push" if he wins another ring he is riding off into the sunset everyone is happy and if the end up a playoff team but not a contendor, or worse, he will jack it in and go meditate in the forest or whatever it is that he likes to do in planet Aaron Rodgers. 

[mjt328]

I voted Daniel Jones.  The worst thing a team can have is an average QB on a franchise QB contract.  The Giants surprised a little bit last year, but I see them falling back out of the playoffs and Jones getting the majority of the blame.

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Aaron Rodgers is the decline that some Bills fans tend to believe.  He has some weapons in New York, and some renewed motivation.  Hopefully we can fight them off, but I think the Jets are going to be very tough this season.  I could see David Carr bouncing back a little bit as well, especially in a very weak division.

 

Lamar Jackson's deal will look fine by the end of 2023.  I just don't think he continues to play at an elite level over the long-term, and the Ravens might be regretting it a couple more seasons down the line.

 

[Gugny]

5 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I hope you are right obviously, but I have a feeling the Jets are going to be good this year. Those 2 games against them are going to be hard fought games just like last year.

We’re playing them twice AGAIN!?!?  Eff Goodell!!

[JerseyBills]

Chose Lamar but ARod is a close 2nd

 

Lamar- For being the current highest paid QB per year , i think it's way underseved and Bal pretty much had no options but to pay him

1-3 career postseason record.  People bring up his lack of weapons but he had vet FAs ,#1 picks, top 3 TE and the best running game in the league for a few years

Now with them going to a more pass heavy attack , i feel they,re a WC team at best. Could see them miss out completely w Pit and Cle overtaking them. Just not worth the contract

 

ARod - I just feel NY is toyally overvaluing their roster. He had 8 wins in a wayy worse division and conference w a better OL and RBs. Equal or slightly better TEs. Only thing significantly better in NJ is yhe D. 

 

Even at WR and D, GB still had a great team. 19 & 20 they reached NFC title gms , 13 win reg season.

2021- 13 wins, 1st rd bye , lose in divisional. 

Ya they lose Adams in 22 but to go from 13 wins to 8 is on ARod. 12 ints. Previous 4 years 15 ints. That's a huge difference. Jets will regret this, essentially renting an overpriced sports car. And after a year or 2 they'll be back to square 1

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Gotta look at what the effective guarantees are:

 

Rodgers: 2 years, $107M

 

Jackson: 4 years, $208M but can be shortened to 3 years, $185M 

 

Jones: 2 years, $86M

 

Carr: 2 years, $70M or 3 years, $100M

 

Rodgers and Jackson carry the most risk because they’re the highest AAV. Carr is getting paid market value. Jones is above MV (IMO) so I guess I go with him. Still, it’s only two seasons and he gives the Giants a chance to find their next QB in that time. Still, I think he will disappoint. 

The only reason I didn't pick Jones is mostly because of DabolI. Not so much Jones. Daboll can scheme, game plan, and get the most out of Jones. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by newcam2012

[transient]

I said Lamar. Jones and Carr are basically going rate for an avg QB in 2023. Jones’s contract has an out in 2025 and Carr’s in 2026.  Rogers, even if he continues to decline, only puts the Jets in a bind for 2 seasons. Lamar has more in guarantees than the total value of any of those other contracts over 5 years without an “out” built in… and he’s played less and less football the last few seasons due to injury and hasn’t closed out a season since 2020… I suspect at the end of 2023 the Ravens are really going to wish they stuck to their guns on the contract structure. 

[BarleyNY]

38 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The only reason I didn't pick Jones is mostly because of DabolI. Not so much Jones. Daboll can scheme, game plan, and get the most out of Jones. 

 

That’s fair. I don’t think it’s an easy call. Even if Jones disappoints this season they only have to keep him one more year. 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because he won a MVP and wins 70% of his starts. 
 

and Jones averages 15 td passes and 9 ints. It’s a joke he makes that much. At least Carr has put up good numbers. 

In 2019.  His stats and health since that time can not be ignored nor can his lack of success in the playoffs where he is 1 - 3 and has yet to play an above average playoff game.

 

The Giants are getting Jones for about 100 million dollars less then the Ravens are getting Jackson. 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, arcane said:

Rodgers, his decline was not an aberration and will only accelerate 

 

I agree, but the Jets had the cash to burn with a number of their better players still on a rookie contract.  Was close for me between him and some others. 

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Bad division, good roster. Carr will win 2 division titles in the next 3 years with the Saints if he stays healthy. They are not going to win a Superbowl with him, but they will make the post-season. And the contract is 12th in AAV among QBs.... and I think Carr is the 12th or 13th best QB in football. It kinda seems fair to me. 

 

Now there is a point, that has been made multiple times that the QB market has a considerable inefficiency that it doesn't allow for a big enough gap payment wise between the elite and the good. But taking a bad journeyman QB and hoping to eek out some wins is a much worse strategy that accepting 3 years of Derek Carr when you are in a division that is there for the taking unless Bryce Young emerges as a superstar. 

 

I understand where you're coming from, I guess I'm just not that confident in Carr or the Saints, even if the division is weak right now. I think of the Saints more like the Commanders from a few years ago who played the Bucs in the first round. 

 

You're right about the QB contract issue, but out of the poll options, Derek Carr is the who I'm least confident in performing up to that contract.

 

Daniel Jones seems like the easy pick, but Daboll got the most out of him in that offense, and he actually won a playoff game. Derek Carr was given the best WR in the league & did worse than the year prior. I bet if Jones was given Davante Adams this year, he'd take another big leap. 

 

Or I could just be way too down on Derek Carr after last season & be entirely off base. 

[beerme1]

Rodgers. Not just because of the money, but what else they gave up to get him. I hope he has a shiity year and retires after next season hurting them even more.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Of those 4 I'll vote for Danny Dimes. The guy is the white Tyrod Taylor 

 

Watson, Murray, and Wilson all have spicy contracts too even if none were this offseason 

[John from Riverside]

I said carr

simply not on that level as a quarterback, and he is an interception machine

[Mike in Horseheads]

Looking at the current poll by @Mr. WEO  voters are picking Rodgers.  I think that is more wishful thinking than picking Lamont or Danny Dimes.

[LeGOATski]

Gotta be Rodgers or Carr. They're just the highest risk of imploding due to age, inconsistency, and lack of momentum at this point in their careers.

 

Lamar is consistent and young. You know what you're getting and I don't think he's gonna disappoint while still on the Ravens.

 

Daniel Jones kinda sucks, but he's young and in a pretty good system. He's got momentum.

 

I went with Carr because he's worse than Rodgers and has a longer contract. He's not going to live up to it.

[JoPoy88]

Good thread/poll. I voted Danny Dimes just because I think he’s not good by any stretch but the Giants were kinda walked into that deal with the QB market price being what it is and they didn’t want to start over. But I totally understand @GunnerBill and others arguments about Rodgers as well. And of course, I hope it does blow up in their faces.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Most 4th quarter comebacks in the league since 2015

Why'd he have to come back so much?  Mostly because the Raiders defense hasn't ranked in the top 20 in any season in that time frame.  Glad to see him get out of the dysfunctional Raiders franchise.  Carr's a good QB (in the 13 to 16 range) who struggled in McDaniels offense as he regressed in almost every aspect.  He was awful in the Red Zone.  It's a tough offense to learn in one year which is pry why they switched to Jimmy G on a cheaper deal.  I don't think he's good enough though to be the driving force behind a Super Bowl victory though.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I hope you are right obviously, but I have a feeling the Jets are going to be good this year. Those 2 games against them are going to be hard fought games just like last year.

Gregg, I agree as Rodgers played through a broken thumb.  I can’t stand the guy as much as the next, but trying to throw a ball with a broken thumb would affect any QB.  
 

He was the mvp the previous two years.  I’d love him to fail miserably, but that’s wishful thinking.  He has lots of weapons, an incredible defense, etc.  what I’m hoping most for is he and his WR’s are not gelling yet in week 1.

[Since1981]

Jets were a mediocre QB away. Rogers scares me. Another pole could ask “which has the scariest upside to change a team” (JETS). Rogers is a spooky kook for bills fans. 
 

jones has most downside risk 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Since1981

[Gregg]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Gregg, I agree as Rodgers played through a broken thumb.  I can’t stand the guy as much as the next, but trying to throw a ball with a broken thumb would affect any QB.  
 

He was the mvp the previous two years.  I’d love him to fail miserably, but that’s wishful thinking.  He has lots of weapons, an incredible defense, etc.  what I’m hoping most for is he and his WR’s are not gelling yet in week 1.

 

Hopefully "Father Time" gets him sooner than it got Brady. 

[BuffaloBill]

Jackson is an enigma to me - Just don’t think he will continue to measure up to the best QB’s he will be a fringe top ten but never seriously and continuously a top 5.

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Gotta be Rodgers or Carr. They're just the highest risk of imploding due to age, inconsistency, and lack of momentum at this point in their careers.

 

Lamar is consistent and young. You know what you're getting and I don't think he's gonna disappoint while still on the Ravens.

 

Daniel Jones kinda sucks, but he's young and in a pretty good system. He's got momentum.

 

I went with Carr because he's worse than Rodgers and has a longer contract. He's not going to live up to it.

 

Consistently unavailable.  He's been a disappointment the past 2 seasons--done before the last month of the season.

 

Jones's best season was his rookie year, 4 years ago.  

[PonyBoy]

13 hours ago, Gugny said:

We’re playing them twice AGAIN!?!?  Eff Goodell!!

 

In Arrowhead too!!!!

[Royale with Cheese]

Rodgers.  I think his main passion right now is to show up the Packers.  But that won't last the entire season...that flame burns out once the season grind kicks in.

 

He is an attention seeker and now he's in NYC....I think by week 10 he's just going to go through the motions.  The Jets finish 9-8, miss the playoffs and Rodgers retires. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Hopefully "Father Time" gets him sooner than it got Brady. 

As I mentioned, the best i can hope for is rust between Rodgers and his new toys and maybe their young RB is still out on 9/11.  The second game will be better as it’s in OP.  
 

Others are concerned with Miami, but hell Tua might be knocked out by the time we play them.  The Jets may turn into a real competition for us.

[Gregg]

10 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

As I mentioned, the best i can hope for is rust between Rodgers and his new toys and maybe their young RB is still out on 9/11.  The second game will be better as it’s in OP.  
 

Others are concerned with Miami, but hell Tua might be knocked out by the time we play them.  The Jets may turn into a real competition for us.

 

I do like the fact that we get them at MetLife in the opener. Rodgers first game with his new teammates. It may take some time to develop chemistry with them. If the Bills can win that game, it will be huge. It would give them a good opportunity to sweep them as the Bills will be favorite to win in OP. Although that will be a tough game as well.

[HOUSE]

Daniel Jones is worth 2nd string running back money 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good topic.  Jones is the least talented of all of them. No idea why they gave him a contract extension.  They will regret that move over the next couple of years.  

 

I defend Jackson on this board a lot. He's a much better QB than many on here post. However he's now been injured two seasons in a row.  If I was Baltimore GM I would have tagged and forced him to play under the tag for one year and then let him walk.  I think he is talented but I would not have taken the risk of that many dollars for a guy that may have trouble staying healthy. 

 

Jets made a wise calculated risk. They have a championship caliber defense and some young stars on offense.  I don't think they did enough on the o-line to protect Rodgers. But he will be so much better than Zach Wilson who I predicted pre-draft would be a bust.  Rodgers experience should help cover up for some of the o-line deficiencies. But why Hackett as your OC?  Makes no sense.  He's terrible and makes Gase and Nagy almost look competent.  Unreal.

 

Carr?  I care so little I'm not even going to bother to remind myself which team he signed with. New Orleans?  

[DrDawkinstein]

16 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

If the best thing about a huge/overpriced contract is that you can get out of it in 2 years....that makes it not a great deal for the team.  

 

Rogers for 2 years at 10 million more per year is a far better deal than Jones.

 

Not "the best thing", but rather "another factor to consider".

 

Yes, Rodgers is a better deal. But your own question implies deciding which is the WORST.

 

So yes. Rodgers' contract is better than Jones', but IMO, Jones' deal is better than Carr's.

 

And if Daboll can get the same level of performance out of Jones, I think it will be better than what the Saints' staff gets out of Carr.

[Max Fischer]

Least concerning: Lamar Jackson.

 

All the others can be equally bad, but I'd say Derek Carr. Not because Carr will be "bad" this year, it's because there is little reason to think he will be any better and more likely, will decline, making the remaining three years on his contract that much more painful. 

 

I do not believe in Daniel Jones, but Brian Daboll appears to. Plus, he'll have another year under Daboll and additional talent on offense. I'm not sure Giants fans will be happy there will be another three years on the contract, but I don't think they'll be depressed, either. 

 

Last, Rodgers. I do not think he'll be anywhere near MVP level again, but he won't be the reason the Jets will continue to be disappointing for the fans. Plus, the team will only have one more year on the contract and time to draft his replacement. 

 

 

[Orlando Tim]

The Rodgers contract will be the worst unless he sticks around for a minimum of three years or they win a SB, in which case I would think Danny Dimes becomes worst. 

[Mr. WEO]

37 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not "the best thing", but rather "another factor to consider".

 

Yes, Rodgers is a better deal. But your own question implies deciding which is the WORST.

 

So yes. Rodgers' contract is better than Jones', but IMO, Jones' deal is better than Carr's.

 

And if Daboll can get the same level of performance out of Jones, I think it will be better than what the Saints' staff gets out of Carr.

 

 

"same level"?  yikes. 

 

Also, Carr has been better than Jones every year. 

[machine gun kelly]

48 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Good topic.  Jones is the least talented of all of them. No idea why they gave him a contract extension.  They will regret that move over the next couple of years.  

 

I defend Jackson on this board a lot. He's a much better QB than many on here post. However he's now been injured two seasons in a row.  If I was Baltimore GM I would have tagged and forced him to play under the tag for one year and then let him walk.  I think he is talented but I would not have taken the risk of that many dollars for a guy that may have trouble staying healthy. 

 

Jets made a wise calculated risk. They have a championship caliber defense and some young stars on offense.  I don't think they did enough on the o-line to protect Rodgers. But he will be so much better than Zach Wilson who I predicted pre-draft would be a bust.  Rodgers experience should help cover up for some of the o-line deficiencies. But why Hackett as your OC?  Makes no sense.  He's terrible and makes Gase and Nagy almost look competent.  Unreal.

 

Carr?  I care so little I'm not even going to bother to remind myself which team he signed with. New Orleans?  

Agreed on most points.  I laughed at the Carr comment.  I wasn’t laughing at you brother.  It’s sad he may be the best QB in the NFCS.  Oh yeah and I live in Tampa.  I feel for my sons who follow the Bucs closer than me.  I like them and hope mayfield can help, but not holding my breath.

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

In 2019.  His stats and health since that time can not be ignored nor can his lack of success in the playoffs where he is 1 - 3 and has yet to play an above average playoff game.

 

The Giants are getting Jones for about 100 million dollars less then the Ravens are getting Jackson. 

 

 

 

 

1 - 3, and unavailable for two that both ended their seasons..... so the team is 1 - 5 with Jackson as their starter, hes still accountable for those losses from a team perspective, especially since last year he 100% refused to play when he was fine.  Dude has been pedestrian in playoffs and isnt a leader of men.  I dunno how any of his teammates can look the guy in the eye next year. If he was so worried about playing on that contract, dont play the reg season.... to play reg season, and say NAH in the playoffs is the ultimate bird flip to everyone else.

 

Everyone else who grinded for the season to get there. Who wanted a playoff run to help their own bag.  Players headed into retirement and their last chance at a run. Bird flip to the fans.

 

Im guessing O/U on games played is at 12. Gun to the head - anybody here taking the under? LOL, not me

Edited July 19, 2023 by BillsShredder83

[SWATeam]

37 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

"same level"?  yikes. 

 

Also, Carr has been better than Jones every year. 

2022 is very questionable that Carr was better especially considering Jones 700+ yards rushing and 7 TD's.

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

In 2019.  His stats and health since that time can not be ignored nor can his lack of success in the playoffs where he is 1 - 3 and has yet to play an above average playoff game.

 

The Giants are getting Jones for about 100 million dollars less then the Ravens are getting Jackson. 

 

 

 

 

What was Peyton Manning’s record before he won a SB? Or Stafford’s?

 

jackson also had like 500 yards in a playoff loss.  Fans really don’t understand how a 25 year old quarterback with 45-16 record (they went 8-4 with him last year and 2-3 without him), a 96.7 qb rating, who has accounted for 17,000 total yards and 125 total TDs in 5 seasons got paid a lot of money???? 
 

this disrespect Jackson gets here is wild. But of course some posters went crazy about Mahomes throwing ints in training camp practice so that’s par for the course. 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not "the best thing", but rather "another factor to consider".

 

Yes, Rodgers is a better deal. But your own question implies deciding which is the WORST.

 

So yes. Rodgers' contract is better than Jones', but IMO, Jones' deal is better than Carr's.

 

And if Daboll can get the same level of performance out of Jones, I think it will be better than what the Saints' staff gets out of Carr.

Yeah, I would be thrilled with 15 tds passes for $40 million!!! Can’t believe rbs are made about what they are making when scrub qbs who’s main selling point is they weren’t as awful as they had been for a year get that much money. Jones is clearance rack dollar store Josh Allen. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

What was Peyton Manning’s record before he won a SB? Or Stafford’s?

 

jackson also had like 500 yards in a playoff loss.  Fans really don’t understand how a 25 year old quarterback with 45-16 record (they went 8-4 with him last year and 2-3 without him), a 96.7 qb rating, who has accounted for 17,000 total yards and 125 total TDs in 5 seasons got paid a lot of money???? 
 

this disrespect Jackson gets here is wild. But of course some posters went crazy about Mahomes throwing ints in training camp practice so that’s par for the course. 

 

Agree. Mystery to me. If the argument is "his injuries worry me" fine. But the argument "his performance isn't worth a big contract" I just don't get it. You mention the record without him last year but they were the number 1 seed just before he went out in 2021 as well. So it is two years in a row.