Which off season QB contract will look the worst by the end of this season?

[Mr. WEO]

place your bets

[SDS]

Bump

[GoBills808]

 Jones

[Gregg]

Jones. If they don't have Barkley, then he will really struggle this season.

[Franco_92]

Rodgers, his decline was not an aberration and will only accelerate 

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, arcane said:

Rodgers, his decline was not an aberration and will only accelerate 

 

I hope you are right obviously, but I have a feeling the Jets are going to be good this year. Those 2 games against them are going to be hard fought games just like last year.

[Nextmanup]

I voted "Jones" simply b/c that's a lot of money and I don't think he's particularly good.

 

Honorable mention goes to Carr, who has greatness in him, but it just doesn't come out enough with consistency.  And he can be really lousy too!

 

 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

I hope you are right obviously, but I have a feeling the Jets are going to be good this year. Those 2 games against them are going to be hard fought games just like last year.

I still think the Jets can be good in this scenario, because their QBs were worse than the level to which I imagine Rodgers falling this year. But the man is being put in everyone's top 5 QB lists and I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the year outside of most people's top 20

 

And I do think the Jets were right to go for it. I just think that the ball I saw from Rodgers last year wasn't because his weapons or line sucked (and his line is not getting any better in NJ)

Edited July 18, 2023 by arcane

[BuffaloBillyG]

Danny Dimes. How he got that contract after tossing 15 TDs last year is beyond me. 

 

I get the Rodgers contract. Gives them a shot at something. Called going "all in".

 

Carr, I think will do ok in NO. He'll be overall mediocre IMO but he's still cheaper than Jones somehow.

 

Lamar will Lamar. That's a ton of money but if he stays healthy he could have them contending for their division. 

 

But the Giants with or without Barkley were poised for a drop this year. They had a cake schedule (of which they didn't look dominating against bad teams. Barely squeezed by) and curiously didn't add much to that offense aside from a broken down TE. I see them as a 6-11 squad this year that's vastly overpaying a sub par QB...and that's not where you want to be. Rooting for Daboll but I just don't see it.

[GunnerBill]

Rodgers because I genuinely think he will only play 1 year. If the Jets get to the Superbowl in that 1 year its value, but I am not sure they will and as such a one year splurge that will cause them huge pain in 2024. 

[The Jokeman]

I voted Lamar as he'll be in a new offense that may require him to stay in the pocket more which could make him more susceptible to injury since defenses will play to hit him vs keep him in front of them which does not play to his strengths.  Also I can't see OBJ being happy playing second fiddle to a TE like Mark Andrews. 

[wppete]

Lamar

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

place your bets

I think they all have potential to look REALLY bad, but I think Jones has the potential to be the least crippling because they can get out the year after next, and their roster is so bad that one more year at his price tag won’t be as prohibitive.

[KDIGGZ]

Daniel Jones isn't good. It is what it is. He was due a contract and it was either pay him or rebuild.

 

Lamar is 1 injury away from being Teddy Bridgewater. He's good because he can run but once he can't anymore he will just be a below average passer. It's only a matter of time.

 

Rodgers will implode if the Jets aren't good. Their OL isn't great, it could go very poorly.

 

Carr will probably be the best of the bunch. He's above average and that division is garbage. 9 wins could get them into the playoffs which is good enough for that team to stay happy.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

Bump

thanks !

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think they all have potential to look REALLY bad, but I think Jones has the potential to be the least crippling because they can get out the year after next, and their roster is so bad that one more year at his price tag won’t be as prohibitive.

 

120 million for 45 TDs tho....

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

120 million for 45 TDs tho....

Nah, they cut him after 2025 and he's only getting $81M total for 2 years.

 

If he puts up 22-25 TD's per season over the next two years, that's a little less than $2M a TD.

Edited July 18, 2023 by FireChans

[dpberr]

Lamar Jackson.  Chronic health issues and a fragile knee that likely isn't right.  He's a black box of medical issues. 

 

Why Baltimore did that deal, I'll never understand.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, dpberr said:

Lamar Jackson.  Chronic health issues and a fragile knee that likely isn't right.  He's a black box of medical issues. 

 

Why Baltimore did that deal, I'll never understand.  

Because he won a MVP and wins 70% of his starts. 
 

and Jones averages 15 td passes and 9 ints. It’s a joke he makes that much. At least Carr has put up good numbers. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because he won a MVP and wins 70% of his starts. 
 

and Jones averages 15 td passes and 9 ints. It’s a joke he makes that much. At least Carr has put up good numbers. 

 

Jones was the biggest overpay on talent. But if Rodgers ends up costing the Jets $60m in dead money in retirement in 2024 then that is the worse deal unless he has at the very least got them to the Superbowl in 2023.

 

[BillsShredder83]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because he won a MVP and wins 70% of his starts. 
 

and Jones averages 15 td passes and 9 ints. It’s a joke he makes that much. At least Carr has put up good numbers. 

Jones deal was good deal for giants situation. He manages dabolls offense well, exceeded expectations. Allows them to stay competitive for a few years while they try to find their franchise qb.

 

From a front office perspective, letting him walk without another QB in place is a great way to end up fired in a few years. The contract looks high but that's just the newest QB deal effect 

[DrDawkinstein]

I think Carr is a marginally better QB than Jones, but I think Dabol will get more out of Jones than Dennis Allen/Pete Carmichael will get out of Carr.

 

I dont think Baltimore will regret the Jackson contract this year. They probably will in a couple years, but not this year.

[BullBuchanan]

They're all bad, but Daniel Jones is the only one of those players that isn't even a decent player, so it has to be him.

[DrDawkinstein]

Another thing to consider is how quickly teams can get OUT of each of these contracts.

 

The Jets are locked into Rodgers for the next 2 years, but can get out of it with no dead cap hit after that.

The Ravens are locked into Jackson for the ENTIRETY of the 5 years, PLUS 2 more void years to lessen cap hits (yikes!).

The Giants are pretty much locked into Jones for only 2 years, and then can get out of it pretty easily.

The Saints have 3 years before they can affordably get out of Carr's contract, but also have a void year added to defer cap hits.

 

Given that info, Jones has the most team-friendly contract. And the Giants are best able to change course.

 

So IMO, the Giants are the least likely to regret their deal since even if Jones stinks, they arent locked in.

 

The Ravens and Saints have the biggest risks getting stuck with a contract they cant get out of. So I'm sticking with my vote of the Saints.

Edited July 18, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[Albany,n.y.]

There are some really bad QB contracts out there, and then, and then 

And then along came Jones
Tall thin Jones
Slow-walkin' Jones
Slow-talkin' Jones
Along came long, lean, lanky Jones

[boyst]

No one expects Carr or Jones to succeed. So they're not exactly underdogs. Rodgers earned his money by past play. Jackson did everything he could to manipulate his play and the he and the team had choices that could have averted the overpaying

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I voted "Jones" simply b/c that's a lot of money and I don't think he's particularly good.

 

Honorable mention goes to Carr, who has greatness in him, but it just doesn't come out enough with consistency.  And he can be really lousy too!

I don't think Carr has greatness in him, personally. I think he is average. I'd take Kirk Cousins over him, who also doesn't have greatness.

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

place your bets

I voted for Carr. He's getting older and has a lot of wear and tear on his body. Not mobile at all. He's just average at best. 

[frostbitmic]

Aaron Rodgers ... Just a feeling

 

Lamar wouldn't be a surprise either.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Nah, they cut him after 2025 and he's only getting $81M total for 2 years.

 

If he puts up 22-25 TD's per season over the next two years, that's a little less than $2M a TD.

 

After 2025 (his 3rd season on this contract) the Giants are out 112.5 million per spotrac.com.

[BarleyNY]

Gotta look at what the effective guarantees are:

 

Rodgers: 2 years, $107M

 

Jackson: 4 years, $208M but can be shortened to 3 years, $185M 

 

Jones: 2 years, $86M

 

Carr: 2 years, $70M or 3 years, $100M

 

Rodgers and Jackson carry the most risk because they’re the highest AAV. Carr is getting paid market value. Jones is above MV (IMO) so I guess I go with him. Still, it’s only two seasons and he gives the Giants a chance to find their next QB in that time. Still, I think he will disappoint. 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

After 2025 (his 3rd season on this contract) the Giants are out 112.5 million per spotrac.com.

Sorry, I meant 2024.

 

Potential Out: 2025, 2 yr, $82,000,000; $18,000,000 dead cap

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Aaron Rodgers ... Just a feeling

 

Lamar wouldn't be a surprise either.

 

 

lots of wishful thinking on this poll!

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Mr. WEO, you're generally viewed as an agent provocateur  around here.  Excellent topic!

[WhoTom]

All of the above?

 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Another thing to consider is how quickly teams can get OUT of each of these contracts.

 

The Jets are locked into Rodgers for the next 2 years, but can get out of it with no dead cap hit after that.

The Ravens are locked into Jackson for the ENTIRETY of the 5 years, PLUS 2 more void years to lessen cap hits (yikes!).

The Giants are pretty much locked into Jones for only 2 years, and then can get out of it pretty easily.

The Saints have 3 years before they can affordably get out of Carr's contract, but also have a void year added to defer cap hits.

 

Given that info, Jones has the most team-friendly contract. And the Giants are best able to change course.

 

So IMO, the Giants are the least likely to regret their deal since even if Jones stinks, they arent locked in.

 

The Ravens and Saints have the biggest risks getting stuck with a contract they cant get out of. So I'm sticking with my vote of the Saints.

 

If the best thing about a huge/overpriced contract is that you can get out of it in 2 years....that makes it not a great deal for the team.  

 

Rogers for 2 years at 10 million more per year is a far better deal than Jones.

[billsbackto81]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Danny Dimes. How he got that contract after tossing 15 TDs last year is beyond me. 

 

 

This^^^^

 

That's a heck of a payday for such mediocre numbers. Daboll should have drafted his own guy instead and worked off the rookie contract. He's proven he's got the goods to be an exceptional coach. Now he's hamstrung with Danny.

[Mr. WEO]

39 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Mr. WEO, you're generally viewed as an agent provocateur  around here.  Excellent topic!

 

lol thanks.

 

I've started few threads over the past 14 years.  This seemed like a decent opinion seeker.  It had little chance to invoke Josh (his girlfriend/new house/handicap/beard/every interview utterance), McD, Hopkins, Ertz or Digg's tossed helmet.   But we are only 2 pages in so....

[BigDingus]

I don't see how Derek Carr is the lowest on the list...

 

Not saying he's bad, but nearly $40 million a year for Derek Carr? That's a crazy risk imo. 

 

I'm really pulling for him & hope he does well, but I'm just not sure they wouldn't have been better off grabbing a journeyman to fill the spot until they can find a better option.

[Airseven]

While Jones is the worst QB of the group, I think Daboll salvages something. Vote Carr.