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GunnerBill

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  1. I see all that. The lesson from Schotty though is all the teams that let him go went from contending to mediocre pretty quickly.
  2. Higgins is a #1 receiver talent. But he isn't Cincy's #1 receiver. He doesn't deserve the best receiver in the league money but he does deserve paying like a #1. They should trade him to a team in the top 15 of the draft and take a tackle. He won't. He is really good.
  3. We did get our butts kicked and that was much more of a factor than scheming. The Bills played like *****. The players laid an egg. I am not absolving coaching of any responsibility. Not at all. But I am not sure with the best scheming in the world the Bills win that game. The first two touchdowns one of their best players over the last 6 years blew coverages. I have never seen Poyer do that twice in the same game in the rest of his time here. You can't legislate for that. It might have been Po's worst game as a Bill. I am not going to start judging how they will perform next season before it happens. Maybe at the end of next season I will feel the time is right for a regime change. But I don't now. And I will tell you what I think next year when that moment comes.
  4. I think Sean Payton is an excellent coach. But his record of getting teams to Superbowls is bad. And on the way he has lost playoff games to Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Matt Hasselbeck and Rex Grossman all with Drew Brees as his QB. I mean McDermott's defeats with Allen as his QB are to Watson, Mahomes x2 and Burrow. That is a different calibre of player.
  5. Injuries is part of it. We thought we had 4 elite players. See my theory that is the minimum you need to win the Superbowl. Von was done and Tre was never Tre post injury and suddenly we had two. Two elite guys is not enough to win a Superbowl. But ultimately, of course it comes down to McDermott and Beane. They are responsible for everything, good and bad. What is to be done? Well they need the hope Von and Tre come back and get back to form because they can't easily escape either deal. But then they have to go to work and be more aggressive attacking the weaknesses - especially oline and receiver.
  6. I haven't studied Tippman in a lot of detail yet but was interested that DJ had him in his top 50.
  7. I like Bergeron a lot... although I think he might end up inside at the NFL level too. I think Downs is bad value at #27 myself. Slot only and has had issues with drops (and bearing in mind his average depth of target isn't super high that is doubly concerning).
  8. Maybe he is. That is certainly possible. I don't think it is yet established. Some of you do, I get it. I just think at this point it is premature.
  9. They didn't get whipped up front and the Bills just played a horrible game. The players stunk on the day. It happens. They played their worst game of the year. It sucks, but it is what it is. The Ravens defense is talented... you could have a discussion there, the Chiefs D I agree is less talented overall than ours but both just played better on the day. Coaching isn't blameless. But the fact is the players just played a really poor game.
  10. I haven't lost faith in him. Partly because, apart from last year, I put the exits much less on coaching than others seem to. But I do think he is getting close to the prove it territory in the post-season. The Bills didn't lose to the Bengals because of coaching IMO. Not saying the coaching was good, there were certainly some questionable parts of their plan - but they lost because they were just totally outplayed on the field. I have always believed coaching is about a 3rd of the game on average, in wins and in losses. The Bills lost everywhere against the Bengals. Sometimes you just have to say the players got their asses whipped. That bolded is the bit that people overlook too easily IMO. I know it is nice (and it is quite an American trait that I notice as an outsider) to believe the champion is always the champion because they are the best. That is often the case, but it isn't always the case in sports. If the best team always won nobody would watch. It is those little moments of randomness that make it exciting. Does Philly make a Superbowl this year if the 9ers aren't onto their 4th string QB? Maybe. Maybe not. On such twists of fate do fortunes often turn. You still have to be good, but sometimes you just have to be a bit lucky too.
  11. You can't go 8-8 anymore. I agree a 9-8 and miss the playoffs he may well survive. A losing season, short of a major Josh injury, I am not sure he would (nor frankly would I say he should). But I agree on your other point. If Sean McDermott was let go by the Bills he would be the first call for almost every team in need of a coach in that given year.
  12. No I know but I think the two are linked. I think Pegula knows across two teams Beane and McDermott are by far his two best hires in multiple goes. I think part of the long leash is him thinking to himself "what if I fire these two guys who have us so close and then screw up the replacements?" The Schottenheimer comparison has been made to Sean, and maybe that is accurate. Every team that Schotty left having had them on the brink of the Superbowl - Cleveland, KC and San Diego - never sniffed that level of success again. Two of them still haven't. The Chiefs obviously have but it took 20 years and multiple subsequent coaches. I think that is a factor in Pegula's thinking personally. As well as @HappyDays says it is always different when you have a personal connection with a guy and have had relative success together.
  13. It's not totally accurate on the way draft boards are built. People imagine that teams have like 300 draft eligible players literally ranked 1 through 300. They don't. Most teams have boards with between 120 and 150 players. And they do differ. In some cases drastically. There are the short board teams (the Pats are 1) who typically have fewer than 100 players on their board. I actually suspect, based just on some of their drafting method, though I don't know that the Brandon Beane Bills fall on the smaller side draft board wise. I would say the "consensus" point among draft boards differs each year but on average the first 30-40 players are closer to a consensus. But even then... Seattle thought LJ Collier was a first round pick. The Patriots thought Cole Strange was. The Saints thought Payton Turner was. These strange picks happen because the consensus is much less than I think some fans imagine. There are all sorts of reasons a guy who might be a consensus top 40 player might not be on an individual team board. The most obvious is injury. The same guy might have an injury assessed by three teams. The first might decide it is not sufficiently serious to change their grade. The second might decide it is sufficiently serious that they downgrade him. The third might feel even more seriously and remove him from the board entirely. The second most obvious is character. There are the obvious red flags.... Joe Mixon is in the news today (his career might be over) and his was a sufficiently serious red flag he was off most boards the year he came out. Other players won't have DV issues, or drugs issues, or firearms issues.... but might just be a bad character fit. I talked recently in another thread about the Bills and Geno Smith in 2013. Buddy Nix, Russ Brandon, Doug Whaley and Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as the brains trust flew out to West Virginia. Wined and dined him, spent a day with him and said "no way we can pick this young man." He went from being their presumptive 1st round pick to off their board entirely because his character (immaturaty, lack of preparedness) turned them off. Teams meet players at the shrine game, the Senior Bowl, the Combine, pro days, top 30 visits.... a player who interviews badly can be off a board. The third reason is scheme fit. Some of these are obvious ones - a smaller, college OLB who is just a pass rusher and can't hold his own with his hand in the dirt at the point of attack and isn't good enough in coverage to transition to an off the ball linebacker spot is not likely to be on the board of any 4-3 team. To a 3-4 team though if that guy can be a situational pass rusher he might worth a day 2 pick. The guy I always go to for this example is Terell Lewis who the Rams selected in the 3rd round in 2020 out of Alabama. I was told by someone I sometimes converse with about the draft who was a scouting intern for a team that plays a 4-3 and has been pretty successful in recent years (and is not the Bills) that the GM of the team in question told him "Lewis is worthless to us." He has ended up not being a particularly good player and was cut by the Rams midway through this year but that is not the point. To one team he was a 3rd round pick. To another they wouldn't even have taken him as an UDFA. But the 4-3, 3-4 linebacker example is only the tip of it. Take the Dolphins who (until firing Josh Boyer) played their corners in more man to man than anyone in the league. Corners who are zone only guys will have been totally off their board. There is no point devaluing them because it doesn't matter if they have taken Martin Emerson (Browns picked in round 3 last year) in round 3 or round 7. If he can't hold up in man he can't play in their defense. Or take Tyler Smith - considered by some a reach when the Cowboys took him in round 1. He had a very solid rookie year playing some tackle and some guard but he was only a fit for a power based man blocking scheme. You'd have never seen him go in round 1 to a Shanahan style offensive team. He lacks the requisite lateral quickness to effectively operate in a stretch zone. Some teams running that style of offense may have had him on the board, but downgraded, many will not have had him on there at all. And finally there are those guys that don't meet physical profiles. Some teams are more stringent on this than others. We know the Bills have a specific thing about DB arm length. Tackle arm length is the one I run into most when speaking to people. Others only want receivers who can run a certain speed. Those physical profiles are less reasons to take guys off boards (though they will sometimes) but more reasons to devalue guys on the board. And certainly once you get past the first 40 or 50 picks that can mix draft boards up some. And then you have the wildcard decisions... and the Bills made one of those with AJ Epenesea. I would love to sit down with Beane and honestly ask him when they turned in the card did they already know they wanted to strip him down and rebuild him from a college power rusher to an NFL speed rusher. Or, remember it was a covid year no combine etc, did they just realise when they got him in the building that he was not what they thought they were getting and have to pivot to plan B? You get those position / style change moments sometimes where a team will decide they have seen something different in a guy and it affects the value. So I tend to reject the "draft is just a crapshoot" argument. It is not a science, not at all, but it is a place where the good teams can significantly separate themselves. The Bills drafted pretty darn well (among the league's best) 2017-2019. They have drafted less well since. They need a strong draft soon or their best guys will age out and the replacements will not be in the building.
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