GunnerBill

The number is $15.75m - $10.75m on the option, plus $68m = $78.75m / 5 years = $15.75m AAV. I think that is what you meant though because it would rank 16th among DTackles. But if every NFL team played a 4-3 there would be 64 starting DTackles. They don't of course... but that is the math.

Yes - but that is because he missed time hurt. Of course that is a worry but he hasn't missed a lot of time hurt. In the second half of 2022 the message seemed to get through to the Bills coaches that they needed Ed on the field more. If they are going to justify this extension they definitely need that to become the long term pattern rather than the rotation rates of his first 3 years. I am not trying to mislead, just to make the point that the Bills did change their approach on that at the end of last year.

I don't disagree with that. He does need the bare production numbers to improve to justify that contract. And he needs to maintain the sort of play percentage we saw the 2nd half of last season or, to be more accurate, the team needs to keep putting him out there at that kinda clip. If over the next 3 years Ed is still around 4 sacks and 9 or 10 TFLs earning $17m AAV then whether he is the 13th best paid DT (as he is now) or the 23rd best paid DT is almost irrelevant because the question becomes the opportunity cost with that money. But there are reasons, both on the film and in the underlying analytics, to believe that the bare production does not accurately reflect who Ed is. Of course there is a chance they do - and the Jerry Hughes comparison is noted - and that is the risk with this contract. But I still think there is a huge ceiling for Ed Oliver and while I recognise the possibility this contract looks like a huge overpay in 3 years time it could also look like a huge bargain (or frankly anywhere in between) and I tend to fall on the optimistic end with this player.

I'd be surprised if AJ isn't here. He would have to really suck in camp. He was decent for the Bills as a rotational rusher last season. He isn't necessarily what you want out of a 2nd round pick but he is cheap and a serviceable rotational rusher. Equally if he puts up another 6 sack season he could well get paid a qualifying FA contract next spring which might help us net a comp pick.

Yea that's a very odd take. Ngakoue SUCKS against the run. It is why a man with his sack production can't stick on a roster for more than a year.

I was never on the hype train the year he came out, but then he was misused and labelled a bust which was never quite true. He is good vet insurance in the event Von isn't back week 1. Like Von he has really been an OLB but I think he could play the rush end position Von was playing for us. Groot big end, Floyd as the 9 tech on passing downs, bring Shaq in to play in the jumbo package. AJE first off the bench. Boogie here just until Von is healthy.

And the Rams collapse last year was very attributable to injuries. They ended up with their QB, 1WR, 2WR, starting LT, both starting guards and both starting safeties on season ending IR and that is without the injuries that caused Donald, Fuller and others to miss time. Yes, they were lacking in depth and that is attributable to their roster building decisions but they lacked depth the previous year too and won a Superbowl. The Bills model is definitely NOT to lack depth as evidenced by the fact that despite their own injury woes in 2022 they won 13 games and ended up with the 3rd highest strength of victory among teams with winning records (Cleveland actually had the best strength of victory in the league but ended up under .500). The two models are not the same.

He was top 6 in ESPN's pass rush win rate in 2021, top 6 in their run stop win rate in 2022. His total career pressures are 62, from 2,284 total snaps. That works out as a pressure around once every 37 snaps. If you compare that to his contemporaries from the 2019 First Round: Q Williams - every 31 snaps D Lawrence - every 36 snaps J Simmons - every 40 snaps C Wilkins - every 57 snaps And compare it to some of the top paid (non-Aaron Donald) defensive tackles: Chris Jones - every 18 snaps* DeForest Buckner - every 29 snaps* Javon Hargrave - every 38 snaps* Daron Payne - every 46 snaps * denotes calculation for those players is since 2018 when PFR began tracking pressures. While I would argue that shows there is clear water between Ed and the very top level elite guys - Jones, Buckner and Q - his underlying metrics compare pretty well with other guys being paid more. Agree the bare production numbers don't, and for the deal to work out value they will have to, but there are reasons for optimism based on the data. As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

Will I maintain the position that the chances he becomes a top 10 DT are pretty good if he doesn't become a top 10 DT? Err, obviously not. The chances are good based on the fact that his underlying analytics are strong and have been strong. Disrespectfully, you are wrong.

I think they are pretty good.

Yep. I think it was 4 in 2021 alone! I confess I haven't gone back and looked at them since I heard the stat but from memory they were mainly for infringements well away from him on the play, rather than Ed getting done for roughing etc. Although I think I might recall one like that.

While I don't dismiss the arm length thing and I do think it has impacted him as a finisher - it is a legit point - it is that much more than overall size, weight, being light in the pants and all the other nonsense that was spoken about him that has been his biggest limitation in the pros to this point. However, I repeat again that no player has had more sacks negated by penalty in the last two years. If his past two years were 11.5 sacks and not 6.5 I think that would be a much fairer reflection of the extent to which the arm length limits him. It is a thing. It is a factor. But it doesn't quite limit him as much as the raw numbers suggest it might. And one would hope, as Eric Washington said, that he develops that mental nouse even more.

He will have to up his bare production numbers. I agree. But there are lots of reasons to believe he will be able to do that because the underlying analytics - his pass rush win rate, his run stop win rate, his double team defeat rate are good. I think he is and has been a better player than the bare production numbers would lead you to believe. If that doesn't change during this deal, then it will have been an overpay. But if it does the Bills could well have a bargain.

Other than Jones Ed was EASILY our best run defending DT last year and in 2021 before Jones joined he was our best.

I don't remember the 2022 play then. I remember the 2021 play very well. Rolling left, keep, jumps over the guy.

Wasn't the keep and the leap 2021?

Always gonna be a legit question with investment in DL in a rotational system like we have. But when he was healthy in that middle run last year Ed was averaging just a tick of 70%. That is sufficient to pay him IMO.

Less well against zone. That is where most of his struggles were. He had a tendency to run away from the soft spots when he should have been sitting.

When Ed was healthy last year he was dominant - particularly that stretch un the middle of the season. He got hurt at the start of the year and again at the end of the year and it limited his impact. But when he is healthy and firing he is one of the Bills best defensive players even if he doesn't have the gaudy numbers to prove it to the boxscore scouts. What you are getting is a big discount from the top of the market guys for a guy who talent wise is in that conversation. I get it he doesn't have the pure production numbers to back that up, but he also leads the league the last two years in sacks called back by penalty... I still think the production isn't a fair reflection of the player when he is on. And the last two seasons he has been consistent when healthy. He got hurt twice in 2022 but hopefully that is now behind him.

Ha. I have been at a comedy gig. But I have been telling people since January and certainly since they didn't trade him before FA that the most likely outcome was an extension.

Good.

Agree. Doing that with Tom Brady who is desperate to win is one thing. Doing it with Aaron who is a much more temperamental personality is another.

The cap is just accounting.

Correct

Oh don't worry I remember the loss. I stayed a bit longer to shout abuse at fat Rex.