GunnerBill

... but apart from all that?

Have a participation trophy

He did do it more last year, and you never want to totally take the scrambles away because they do produce so many big plays. But yea getting that balance right is always the sweet spot everyone is looking for.

I don't consider any of those a nail. They are three good efforts and all of them were almost correct.... but Washington didn't go 7-10, Tennessee didn't go 2-15 and Shakir didn't have 1173 yards.

Ha. Corrected. Thanks! TY Johnson. Not TARON. And yep, it's why you can't get me to "oh they wouldn't miss James Cook, Ray Davis is good." Cook was top 6 in the NFL in explosive runs last year (classed as runs of 20 yards or more) and of that top 6 only Josh Jacobs had a worse yards before contact rate so it isn't, as some want to claim, just the Bills oline blowing people off the ball for him and opening huge holes on every run. It's that Cook has ELITE vision and change of direction that turns what might be 3 or 4 yards for a lot of guys into 25 yards in a flash. It's also why if is a way to structure a deal that pays him more in 2025 and 2026 without committing to him for the longer term I'd be fine with it. I want this offense to get back to making its explosive plays in the passing game. But until it is in a position to do that giving up Cook who is picking up some slack by making them in the run game feels a risky proposition to me.

Sorry for the bump but I am having a rare quiet work day and was starting to turn my mind to some bold predictions for 2025 when I realised we didn't ever tie a bow on the 2024 edition..... Personally I only nailed one in 2024 - which was: - The Bills to trade away a day two pick in the 2025 NFL Draft for a wide receiver prior to the trade deadline; I had a few others that were in the ballpark - Justin Fields did do enough to be a starter in 2025 just not for the Steelers, and Rasul Douglas did look washed by the end of the season but Elam was still worse. I've just been through and counted up successes. Congrats to @major called THREE: 1. Raiders win 4 games; 2. Texans win their division; and 3. Eagles win their division. However, given that two of those were just predicting a division winner, I'm giving the prize this year to @NoHuddleKelly12 who also correctly nailed THREE and was extremely close to FIVE correct. As a reminder his predictions were: Non-Bills: -Purdy regresses and 9ers won’t make it out of the wild card round this year; CORRECT (they didn't even get to the wildcard but Purdy did regress and they didn't make it past the wild card) -Jets will field a heroic march to 6-11, Saleh will be done on or by Black Monday; ALMOST CORRECT (the Jets went 5-12 and Saleh was done long before Black Monday) -Texans will grab the #2 seed but won’t make it to the AFCCG; INCORRECT (they didn't make the AFCCG but they also weren't the #2 seed) -Watson will not play a full season in Cleveland. CORRECT Bills: -Josh takes MVP this season; CORRECT -Curtis Samuel will lead the team in catches, yards and receiving TDs.; INCORRECT -Von will play in no more than 10 games; INCORRECT -Hyde will be back with the team in some capacity no later than Week 13. ALMOST CORRECT (he actually joined on the Monday of Week 14) A reminder to get your thinking caps on chaps.... next year's Bolds thread will be out in a few weeks.

Josh still holds it longer than almost any other QB would get away with. But he gets away with it because he is elite at getting away from the pressure that inevitably comes when you are holding it that long and he makes big plays down the field in scramble situations better than anyone since peak Packers Aaron Rodgers around 2012-2016. My worry a bit still with this offense is that a high percentage of our explosive pass plays last year came from Josh creating outside of the design of the scheme. He had more quick button easy throws to keep the offense on schedule last year than any season since 2020 - with that and the effective run game Josh had to do much LESS than in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to just make the offense function efficiently. But he did not have a ton of explosives that worked by design. Some of that falls on Brady to scheme them up better but he was calling them and I still think a LOT of it comes from the lack of vertical separation guys. Hopefully Josh Palmer makes a difference there. Because as much fun as Josh extending plays then hitting a Knox or a Ty Johnson on a big gain down the field is.... I'm not sure it's a sustainable way to live for your explosive pass plays.

Yep on the definition you have applied to it I think it's Kyler. He has been paid, barring injury he will not lose his job in 2025 so in that sense the ("franchise" is tied to him) but he is the weakest of the guys in that group.

So in the rank the QBs threat the other week my "franchise" tier was my 2nd tier and the lowest ranked "franchise" guy I had.... was CJ Stroud at #13 overall. To me "franchise" means a guy that I am currently totally committed to, not even thinking right now about moving on from any time soon (largely cos they are very difficult to upgrade unless an elite guy falls in your lap). Of the guys @FireChans group together in his OP only Mayfield was in that group for me at #11 overall. I think @FireChans (and a lot of other posters in this thread) have interpreted it as meaning guys who are at proven starters who are at no risk of losing their job (other than through injury) during 2025. That was my tier 3 in my rankings and I had Tua, Purdy, Nix, Geno, TLaw and Kyler in the tier, with Kyler at #19 the bottom of it. I don't think Kyler will lose his job in season during 2025 but of those six guys he is the one who is most likely not to be the starter for the same franchise in 2026 IMO. Everyone after Kyler is still very much unproven at this point - Maye, Caleb, Penix and this year's rookies - OR is a proven vet who if they stunk the joint up in-season this year could be pulled (Rodgers, Fields, Wilson, Darnold, Flacco etc). So depending on your definition of "franchise" my answer is either: CJ Stroud or Kyler Murray.

I wasn't suggesting there was direct leaking. But I am pretty sure McDermott and Beane talked between McDermott arriving here and Beane joining post draft. And I think common weaknesses in the rosters would have been part of those conversations. Again.... not "hey Sean we are taking a receiver and a tackle with guard flex on day two". I think Sean McDermott was politicking for Brandon Beane to get this job pretty much the moment he arrived. And I think Beane knew that too. And as such they talked about team needs.

Jeff Fisher has more wins than Bill Parcells? Wow.

I'd have said the secondary was the "especially" bad bit. There was Benford and 3 liabilities out there. But I agree. The defense last year was just bad. Some of that was on Beane. Some of it was on Babich. But McDermott isn't scott free either.

No and I don't think he was "running the Bills draft from Charlotte" but do I think he was tight with McDermott and had an inclin what was coming? Yes. Twice in round 2 the Bills jumped above the Panthers in trade ups and took the exact same position as the Panthers took after (4 picks after once and the right next pick the other time). Do I think Beane was saying "take Zay and Dion"... no. Do I think it is reasonable to assume McD had some inside info as to the positions the Panthers were interested in? Yes.

Yea. If he is a top 10 NFL coach I am Chinese. And guaranteed to be up in the Superbowl in the 4th Quarter and then for Kyle to have a meltdown and blow it. Again. Stefanski was the one who hated Baker and wanted him out. That was HIS call. He is not as good a coach as Sean. Not even close. Nobody is saying it is "cool". There is a big difference between "cool" and "must be the Head Coach's fault".

Thats a rank list. Texans #4??? They might have the worst pair of starting dtackles in football. They have great edge rushers, sure, but they are awful inside. Similarly the Lions... sure they have Hutch. The DTs are serviceable starters but nothing more at this stage and Davenport isn't even that. And the Bills have two proven good players and two question marks. Bad list.

Yea same. I wouldn't be as aggressive as @BADOLBILZ and say "lying" but he certainly manipulates perceptions and creates narratives that he pushes as the truth that sometimes end up overtaking the objective truth in the minds of some. I agree he has also got an easy ride from local media for the most. Easier than McDermott for sure.

I obviously disagree strongly on John Harbaugh. I think he is an excellent coach, his ability to adjust in season is really underrated. I think he is an excellent leader (as is Tomlin) but Harbaugh is a better football strategist. I did consider LaFleur for my second group - the wouldn't swap either way group - but I get similar levels of game management faux pas and under peformance by his unit in playoff exists and I don't get the same leadership I do with McDermott. Therefore overall I think he is less talented as a football coach - albeit he is on the more valuable side of the ball in 2025.

It is unquestionably true that there is more to the evaluation than winning percentage. It is equally, however, unquestionably true that McDermott has infinitely more input and influence on the franchise than Sirianni does in Philly. He is one of the least empowered coaches in the entire league. His GM picks his coordinators for him.

I think the opposite too, though barring one really lax fumble though Lamar wasn't the reason the Ravens lost the most recent playoff game. The first time we beat them in the playoffs, even in weather and in a low scorer I thought on the night the Bills had a clear QB advantage. I thought it was closer this last time. Lamar was the reason the Ravens were in it at the end. John Harbaugh is one of three coaches I'd immediately trade McDermott for straight up. Reid. McVay. John Harbaugh. There is then a small batch of coaches that I wouldn't trade McDermott for but that I also wouldn't trade the other way if I was the GM of the other team: Payton, Shanahan, O'Connell and probably Dan Campbell. Everyone else it is a simple choice for me. Sirianni is probably the most controversial here as he just won a Superbowl but what the last three years tells us is he is as good as his coordinators. Steichen and Gannon = makes Superbowl; Johnson and Desai = step back; Fangio and Moore = wins Superbowl. And Roseman hired Fangio and Moore last offseason so he doesn't even get credit for the hires. I think Howie is a way big factor in their success.

Lamar is a two time MVP. Just to be clear.

Ha! Good point. All 3 are here!

Yea I have made the argument that 2017 was their best draft. White, Dawkins and Milano become cornerstone players for the rebirth and two of them are still here 8/9 years later. You do have to factor the Mahomes thing in but I don't think they passed on Mahomes cos Beane said "I don't like him", or McDermott didn't like him. They passed on Quarterback as a position because they wanted to do their homework properly on it (and in fairness 2018 was already known to be a strong group). They got LUCKY to get a shot at Josh the next year but also kinda unlucky that the trade they made ended up passing on a guy Mahomes level good. Josh probably makes the 2018 draft the best. And they did get Taron Johnson in that class too as a cornerstone... plus Tremaine who they got 5 years out of and Wyatt Teller who they screwed the pooch on trading away. But a new regime NEEDS credibility early and not only the record in 2017 but White, Dawkins and Milano looking like hits gave them that.

Yea those pieces are enough to demonstrate it wasn't one of the worst rosters in the NFL. It was a roster in flux in the middle of a tear down that shouldn't have made the playoffs and did - as distinct from some of those others rosters I mention - 2012, 2014, 2015 - which should have made the playoffs and didn't. Worse teams at the time it would be the usual suspects - Browns, Bengals, Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Redskins... the 49ers were terrible at that point as well they'd just hired Kyle and John Lynch after two one and done coaches. If you wanna say the Bills were 22nd or 23rd or something, fine.

They got lucky with Sean McDermott. They got a serious, professional, dedicated leader with the strength of character to walk straight into his first NFL Head Coaching job and start calling the shots (got the GM sidelined, then fired, had the long time PR guy who leaked liked a sieve moved on, and most importantly he got the trust of the owners and kept them away from football). Separate to the questions about whether McDermott is a bad, good or great coach which is being done to death elsewhere he is undoubtedly the biggest reason the franchise stopped being a laughing stock. There is no Brandon Beane, there is no Josh Allen, there is no culture and consistency had the Pegulas not got that choice right. Had they hired Anthony Lynn as the "nice guy in situ" who had done a decent job as OC in the previous season or Harold Goodwin I have zero doubt we'd have carried on spinning our wheels and we'd be onto a 3rd, 4th maybe even 5th regime under this ownership by now. Not dissimilar to the Sabres.

He won on the road in Kansas City and Atlanta. Both playoff teams.