GunnerBill

Harbaugh was successful in San Fran as well when he hadn't been an NFL HC before. So he is an example I think of college coach done well but with a strong NFL background. Carroll was an NFL HC, turned college HC, turned NFL HC again. I don't count him as a college coach converts to NFL success story.

Yea exactly. The Bills are so good at home. They might lose one or two. I doubt they lose more than that at home. And they could go unbeaten on the road

If a year ever set up for the Bills to get the #1 seed this is it.

Yea I'm not as convinced. I can see a world where Denver competes for the division but it the best case scenario for them IMO. I think the Chargers' ceiling remains a bit lower. Their floor is probably higher than Denver's, but I don't see much of a ceiling for them.

I don't think "realistic" for Denver is pipping KC to the division title. I think that is a potential optimistic scenario, sure. But realistically KC is still the class of that division. I actually think KC are stronger this year than last but wait for my bold predictions thread for more....

Tre was better than good. He was elite for 3 years in Buffalo. And he has only been away a year. 2 teams but one year. That said no question in a redraft TJ Watt goes higher. Elite pass rusher > elite corner.

From people I heard from Hairston was actually very open and front footed about it with teams pre-draft. That doesn't mean he didn't do anything wrong but I think teams felt like they did at least have his full side of the story.

My take is less that they'd have won the Superbowl had they kept Fox and more that they really shouldn't have won it with Kubiak. They were not a Superbowl standard winning team. Not even close IMO. The best team doesn't always win. I don't think the Broncos were a top 5 team the year they won the title. Sometimes you just get the breaks. Luck plays a major part. It is what it is - the history books will say the coaching change worked. I am sure that is the real truth of it.

Nope. I wouldn't have fired him. I also think the difference it made is overblown. The 2013 and 2014 Broncos were better per DVOA than the 2015 Broncos that won a Superbowl. They changed coach, got worse, but got a couple of breaks in the post season and won the title.

Again this "what would McDermott be with QBX" or "what would Allen by with HCY" are hypotheticals. It also depends heavily who are you replacing them with. Is it McDermott with a 5th-12th type QB? Or a 13th to 20th type QB? Or a bridge at best guy? Is the mythical head coach replacement for McDermott a proven NFL HC? Is it a hotshot coordinator or is it a guy who you seriously consider the basic competence of - see Hackett etc. I just don't know that it is a very fruitful line of argument. Quarterback matters more than Head Coach. We all know and accept that as a truism of the NFL and the Bills will always have a chance to be good with Josh Allen. But the Saints had four losing seasons in five years during the peak of a future first ballot HoF QB and a likely future HoF HC. The NFL is just way to complex and way to nuanced to ever boil down to 1+1 always = 2.

I think like your first sentence - they are unlikely to change a ton IMO. We would remain in the same stratosphere of championship contenderness (made up word). Though to be clear my argument for keeping McDermott has never been a "better the devil you know" argument. I think that is bad reason to retain a coach. Equally I think "look at this shiny thing over here I could have" is a bad reason to fire a coach. My view across all coaches and all sports is you fire a coach based on their performance when you believe he deserves to be fired not based on who is or isn't available to potentially replace them.

I agree with the first sentence and the third sentence. I don't agree with the middle one.

No I'm not. I'm saying creating stawman "what ifs" does nothing to further the discussion either way. Whether they are including things that didn't happen or excluding things that did. The record is the record.

I don't buy that. That team was so undermanned from a pure talent perspective. It wasn't just schematic or style. It was talent. Bill had failed to keep up with identifying the right guys to play in the 2020s NFL. He actually coached them up pretty good still. The Mac Jones year was in his top 5 coaching jobs as Pats HC imo.

Nope. You were talking about what might have happened if he hadn't played 7 seeds in the wildcard rounds. But he did. That's what happened.

He did build the roster for the 2nd dynasty though.... and that was a good roster. Their drafting late 00s early 10s was good and that is when he built the core of the team that won the 3 Superbowls vs Seattle, Atlanta and LA. The drafting fell off in about 2013/2014... which does suggest the league had passed him by a bit. I think the rule changes really started to accentuate the physical talent over the football smarts again and Bill didn't really keep up with that. He still wanted to draft guys who work hard, understand their assignment and do their job and then coach them to within an inch of their lives.

Stuff that you know, actually happened. Or stuff that might happen in the future. Not create narratives about stuff that we know didn't happen in the past so that we can rewrite history to support out own personal biases.

Even if he were the Bills are not hiring Belichick.

I reject this entirely. This is ridiculous. Arguing about what McDermott's record would be if he had played games that never took place is utter madness as an argument for firing him. We all need to stop the "what if something that hasn't happened or didn't happen had happened" game. And I say that on both sides of the argument. That advances nothing any further. There is a legitimate disagreement about how the record of what has happened in reality should be viewed. That's fine. You are entitled to your view even if I disagree with its conclusion. But all this hypothetical web weaving is stupid.

That isn't happening. There is zero chance.

I think the seat is warmer than it was but I don't think he is under any immediate threat. I can respect wanting him fired for 13 seconds. It was a huge failure. I don't put the Bengals loss on him it was squarely on the players and I even then I cut them some slack. They started slow and with everything that year they had no mental reserves to respond. They all looked vacant and lifeless. To put that on coaching you almost need to believe McDermott told them to play like that. The Bills have been beaten by more than 1 score twice in like 3 and a half years and that was one of them. It was an anomoly. But if, like me, you are willing to give one mulligan for 13 seconds then he doesn't get a second one. Missing the playoffs unless Josh is hurt is a second huge failure and he'd have to go. Likewise losing a playoff game to a non-elite QB. Likewise any playoff defeat whatsoever that has a 13 second like blunder. As for where Pegula is... the regime might survive a winning season where they miss the playoffs at 9-8. Possibly. If they have a losing season they are toast. They might survive a narrow playoff loss to a non-elite QB on the road. At home? Riskier. Another blunder like 13 seconds I think Terry fires McDermott. In that situation and only that situation do I think there is a chance the coach goes and the GM stays.

I'd have fired him if they missed the playoffs in 2023 and I said as much after the Denver loss. Missing the playoffs with Josh Allen is fireable.

It doesn't to me. McDaniel underused and then let Gesicki go because he couldn't block which is a requirement of a tight end in the Shanny offense. They spend a year with nothing at the spot then find their way to Smith who is a nice scheme fit - a true two way tight end - who has a career year. Then they trade him and bring in a retired converted wide receiver who can't block. Baffling.

There is a way of finding the truth. Speak to people who have been in the building. Which I have done. Sam Monson is no longer at PFF. He is at 33rd team now.

The reason I exclude Watson is I don't think anyone, including the Cleveland top brass thinks he is a franchise QB anymore.