GunnerBill

All of that is true. But nobody has lost more playoff games to less talented teams while having an elite QB than Sean Payton. I do think he is a terrific Head Coach (though I don't think he is quite at the cutting edge offensively in the way he used to be) but if it is playoff success we lack I think an honest assessment of his resume suggests the Superbowl year was the outlier.

It is about opportunity cost. The teams who had one year of cost controlled QB lost less opportunity than the teams who had two years of cost controlled QB in the two years of the crunch. The point is not that it made it more difficult for the Bills than the teams who had already paid their Quarteback. Nor is it that this is the reason the Bills didn't win. The argument is the opportunity cost lost was greater for Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona. Teams who both a) had decided their QB was the guy and b) had two years of cost control in 2021 and 2022 during the crunch.

That is not the argument. I am giving up. I have explained it to you three times and you have missed the point.

Being able to sing Von isn't really relevant. It wasn't that we couldn't sign anyone it is thar we couldn't go as all in as we might otherwise have. It affected the Chiefs, but they only had one year of cost control left. The teams I would say were most impacted were those wanting to go in all in both cap restricted years which were 2021 and 2022. And to repeat.... if anyone is saying it is the reason we didn't get over the hump that is a stretch too far. I don't think that is justified. Who knows if the Bills spend that money? Even more so if they spend it wisely.

I think you miss the point. We couldn't have a couple of those big contracts because when the cap should have increased $20m it retracted $20m. That is a $40m swing at exactly the point the Bills should have been wanting to go all in. And then I wasn't saying it stopped the Bills kicking the can. It just meant when they kicked the can (and they did onna fair few deals) they were doing that just to get under the cap instead of to invest I am not saying Beane didn't have some bad contracts then, but the point is quite simple.... the cap contraction hurt the most the teams primed to go all in at the point it happened. That was the Bills, Ravens and Cardinals and possibly one or two others.

Yea there was definitely a disproportianate impact on the teams who were at the Bills stage of their build. Years 4 and 5 of Josh's rookie deal (I know he had extended but it is still a moment of maximum flexibility and opportunity) were the cap reduction / restriction years. I wasn't just the Bills. The Ravens and the Cardinals were similarly affected. They were trying to go all in on their guys and finding they were having to make restricted choices. Can kicking that should have been to allow you one or two more decently sized free agent contracts became kicking the can and void years just to stay cap compliant. So yes, everyone was affected, but the Bills were definitely in a small group of the most affected. Would those 2 or 3 extra decent FA deals over that 2 year period have been enough to get us over the hump? I think that is a stretch too far. It is an unknown. But the Bills were definitely affected more than most because it restricted the ability to go all in precisely at the time they should have been going all in. None of that is to say there were not mistakes, bad picks, bad contracts etc. But covid restricted their room for error. And I don't think it is fair to say that is still affecting them today. I think they'd be where they are cap wise now regardless. But definitely 2021 and 2022 the timing was really unfortunate for Beane and these Bills.

No it is not as good as Kyle Shanahan. Or Andy Reid. Or Sean McVay. They are the elite of the elite and not available. As for other 2s and 3s... easier to get them open when teams are locked onto your #1. Who are teams doubling on the Bills? Nobody. That is the point. If you rank #4 and #5 receivers in the NFL the Bills are maybe closer to middle of the pack. But if you rank #1s.... there is a legitimate case they are 32nd. Teams bracket Shakir in zone in the middle of the field and man up outside on Keon and Palmer and say "go on then, get open" and they can't. Could one of the elite offensive minds in the league do it? Probably. Brady isn't that, at least yet, he is still a young guy. But he is a pretty good offensive coordinator. He has done a pretty good job here despite Brandon Beane tying his hands. He isn't faultless. Of course not. But the idea that he is realistically upgradeable.... I honestly don't know about that.

Yep, has happened to the Bills before. McDermott's first year or second year I think. It was McDermott but it was Shady carrying the ball so 2017 or 2018.... he was stopped right at the line, it was moved forward an inch but still short of the line.

Agree, I've made that point too.

Indeed the week before Devin Lloyd said he knew the Chiefs counter to a zero blitz so he just had to get in the right vicinity and the ball came right to him. If you mined defensive pressers after every game it is what they all say. Film study is real. Every team does it. The number of times a year one genuinely surprises another with a gameplan is very rare. Generally NFL football games come down to execution and talent.

The oline was not great, it had a below average day in pass pro but it wasn't horrendous. The pressure was largely blitz pressure and that's where your backs have to block, you have to have hots built into your scheme, those hots have to win early and Josh has to get the ball out to them fast. And it was no one element of that that failed consistently, but each element was a problem at least a couple of times and that led to what we saw.

Great suggestion. I am all for this. Hate the look around and start waving for a flag. I'd let coaches do it, but any player making a flag throwing motion gets a 5 yard penalty. Yea I'd make personal foul only negatable by another personal foul. Any other penalties offset. But personal fouls should stand.

I agree with number 1 totally. It's a minor thing but it is inconsistent. If a team runs a fake punt and the punter throws it incomplete the next line of scrimmage isn't from where the ball is thrown. It's the same concept IMO. A kick is more akin to a pass attempt. It's different than someone travelling with the ball. Agree. The only thing I don't like about the changes to the kick game is the declared onside kick, but that was the previous rule change not this one. The removal of the surprise onside option is a shame. That sounds like a you problem. I NEVER run out of wine. That is a rule in my house.

You missed the Cook extension. But otherwise spot on. I have made the same point just about the 12 big investments in dollars or picks last spring. They are not getting the contributions you would hope for. Taking it even more down to brass tacks since the Allen draft Beane has had one "home run" draft year - 2022. And he even managed to bust his first rounder that year. Rolls a lot of singles. But at this stage the lack of doubles is really starting to hurt.

Or not even play well for 4 Quarters. Just don't play so poorly for 2 Quarters that it was barely believable that it was a professional football team out there on defense. They literally were incapable first hald of doing the most basic of basics right. That is what concerns me the most about it. Their fundamentals are absolutely miles off.

It is not the first time Ullbrich has done that to him. The loss to the Jets a few years back where he ended up hurting his elbow was strikingly similar. It was Josh's worst game definitely since Houston last year. Possibly longer. And if I thought it was just that which caused us to lose Id be relaxed. But as much as I'd love to say "it was just Josh had one his very rare bad days, we are all good" there was a lot more wrong than that.

Hmmm. I will hope it is just a super personal issue hence the mystery. The kid can play.

I think that is a bit of a cop out to be perfectly honest. I know I am biased. I was a much better coach than I was a player (different sport admittedly) but coaches coach and players play. Once they cross the white line there is an element to which you are powerless. They have to decide and they have to execute. And I honestly don't see that many players lost on offense. Unlike on defense where I do.

It is definitely an area the Bills can coach it better but I do think it is a bit of a Josh weakness too. Being a Quarterback is so mental and just getting to the point in less than a second where you understand "X is better than the potential of Y so take X" is really incredible mental processing. Josh can make plays Brady, Manning, Brees even Rodgers and Mahomes could only dream of. But he still doesn't quite make some of those mental decisions as quickly as those guys.

I don't disagree with any of that. But a change of scheme again risks that again (and I don't think we have the core prime age personnel we had in that period). We were horrible under Wandstadt though. And year 1 of Rex was horrible too. Year 2 they improved but not enough.

Did we? Whaley oversaw four seasons as GM - two Marrone seasons and two Rex seasons - with his DCs being Pettine, Schwartz, Rex (Thurman), Rex (Thurman and Rob). We had one great defense - Schwartz - and one good one (Pet). Rex's Ds were horrible. I think if we make a coaching change the first season would feel to me a lot like last year.... where I never really believed we were going to win the Superbowl but we were still a decent football team that wins double digit games. You'd still have a puncher's chance, because you have Josh, but you'd be a second tier favourite. I don't think that is a reason not to change coach. If Pegula believes McDermott should be fired he should fire him. Not hold on because he doesn't have an obvious replacement in mind or because he thinks it might take a mini transitional year.

I just think people make assumptions on Cook based on his body type, but he has been one of the most durable and reliable backs in the league. Thank heavens he has to, because the Bills O is in trouble without him.

You don't generally solve blitzes with the oline pass blocking. You have two ways: one is to run some more max protect stuff - which the Bills did on some play action looks and Josh had a fair amount of time on some of those, the problem is it means you have two receivers out in the pattern and with the Bills guys there is no way they are separating 2 v 4 against a secondary. The second is to build a ton of hots into your routes. I agree the Bills can do better in a gameplanning sense there but also there were some that were there and Allen held the ball. I'm not blaming Josh, but he got to the point on Monday that he wasn't trust what was around him and wasn't trusting what he was seeing.

I don't agree with this. People used to say it about Shady as well and what Shady and Cook have in common is they are good at avoiding the massive hits on their bodies because of how quick their feet are. Defenders rarely get clean hits on them.

If we had Callahan I doubt we have won 4 games. Stefanski, sure.