Mikie2times

Hunter is can’t miss territory. But it’s basically a Hershel Walker trade to do it. Even if that’s intriguing we have too many holes. But I do think he can give reps both ways and he happens to play both positions in two of our highest need areas. Again, intriguing as all hell. But we would never do it.

Cam had elite arm strength prior to injury. His body broke down fast. He basically got his arm taken from him and his body aged so he didn't have his legs. He was a shell of himself the last few years.

That's interesting. I agree, the college game is calling more for QB's like that. I still think a true cerebral pocket guy is the most dangerous. But as I called out, I don't think those guys develop the same when they're very athletic. They aren't forced to read a defense correctly to make a play. They use athleticism as a bail out. Allen is the same way, he's just probably the best ever at doing so.

They seem to depend on the defense breaking down more with using athleticism. Brees, Brady, Manning, were not going to run. Which I think forces more development in reading defenses to be honest. When will Josh become better in the pocket? When he doesn't have a choice.

Otto Graham refence prior to 1pm. Check

I think last year was us overestimating the impacts of losing guys like Diggs, Morse, Poyer, etc. It just turned out to not matter a great deal and it allowed us to be at or slightly above the level we had been at previous years. Which for me sort of blends together into a big soup of very good, but just not good enough. A few players away etc. To move beyond that statement of a few players away the path in my mind is guys like Bishop, Benford, Coleman, Kincaid, Bernard having really big years. That or us landing somebody in the draft that can really elevate our play this year. I'm a bit pessimistic here that we see this play out, but certainly acknowledge (and hope) that it will go that way. I'm less bullish on Bosa than some here. He hasn't been what we hoped he can be here for 3+ years. His injuries are not break and heal types, more reoccurring/consistent. He just doesn't seem like he will be able to stay healthy to the extent that he could push a 10 sack performance. A 4-6 sacks performance would be fairly similar to Von. More bullish on Forrest, Ogunjobi, Hoecht but two of those three won't play for a bit so hard to say what to expect. So to say I don't think we have any paths to improvement isn't really how I feel. But imagine if everything I just said was partnered with DK Metcalf or Hendrickson. So you added that elite player and then you still held all these cards which could turn out to be very good hands. That is what we should be doing (in my opinion) at this stage of our progression with Allen and the franchise. We have been very close for a very long time and we keep depending on our cards to really turn out when we could be more bold and force that to happen. We did this with Von, it would have worked out. He got hurt. But it doesn't mean it was the wrong move.

Have we heard of any activity with him at this point?

Prior to the start of last year everybody was just wrong on this team. The offensive line ended up being our biggest strength. Allen rose his level of play. Cook exploded. The turnover differential became even more extreme. But we still saw the reasons to be concerned and question if we could play with the top 3-5 teams come playoff time. Lack of a space eating DT, lack of a separating WR, secondary concerns. Just because we survived Baltimore and nearly beat KC didn't leave me walking away thinking we had the edge. I don't even know if we would win 3 of 10 at home vs the Ravens. We did that day and that's what matters, but we are talking about our future trajectory. We have seen so many iterations of this team and as of last year this particular version is not as good as past versions from a talent perspective. Better as a whole? Likely, but not as talented. Our EPA on defense excluding turnovers was among the worst in the NFL. It was top 10 in the past. We couldn't get off the field last year. So shame on anybody if they think a Josh Allen led team will not be competing for a division title and in thick of it as many did last year. But have we slanted the field in our direction as a team should progressively do over time with a guy like Allen? Absolutely not. We have not added a difference maker in two years. With a threat of three years if we don't bag one this year. Sure one could develop, and that's what you hope for as our FA classes are largely depth. But at this stage of the offseason I can't say staying even is improving. It's a step back to me, because to take the next step and push the deck in our favor we needed to be a little better.

And the last year and the year before. Some people feel those three points might as well be 30. Which is not a hard argument to make. We have only been to the AFC championship game two times across the McD era. This team is not clearly more talented than the past. Fairly easy to argue it is less talented, and most certainly is on defense. We haven’t come within 3 points in a Super Bowl. We haven’t made it to a Super Bowl. So it doesn’t really feel like a play or two away from my view point. It feels like we need to get incredibly lucky with our health (again). Probably beat at least one, if not two, teams that have a better roster on the AFC side. Then we can get to the Super Bowl and hope we don’t run into a juggernaut like Philly which we haven’t even had the chance to experience yet. Long way to go from a play or two unfortunately.

WR Worse Palmer went 584 yards and 1 TD last year. WITH a solid QB and fairly light competition for targets. Which is within the stat profile range of players like Amari Cooper, Mac Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deonte Hardy. I like Palmer and I'm optimistic about him, but to be objective, subtracting a guy like Mac and Cooper for him is not a break even until proven otherwise. Safety Better I agree with this more based on the expectation that Bishop takes a big step. Forrest could end up being the next Poyer/Hyde acquisition or he could end up being more like Cam Lewis. Similar to Palmer, being objective, it's a total crap shoot. D Line Slightly better In the last 3 years Von Miller has more sacks than Joey Bosa. It's not just one injury either, nagging issues like back problems make availability a serious question mark. Partner that with the likely further decline of DaQuan Jones who is still the starting 1 Tech and this group feels more break even. It does have some upward paths no doubt. A good draft, the availability of Hoecht and Ogunjobi, but we don't know what this looks like yet. Some improvement here, but will be hard to know until we get further along. Corner Worse I like Jackson for depth, but you can't subtract a multi year starter and replace him with Dane Jackson and call it a break even. This will depend on further additions and the draft. We don't seem signifgantly better or worse for that matter. Which for me is really disappointing as I feel we have been so close for so long, just one significant upgrade is all it will take and we haven't added one in 2023 or 2024. Our only path for 2025 will be the draft.

One of my all time favorite Bills. I will never forget his one handed house call vs the Patriots ("Just give to um"). He was a YAC demon.

We aren't better than last year on paper. But a lot can change between the draft and player development. We will see.

The bold part

Can you explain why, if this is the case, it is that way (your opinion is fine)

These are the players we have added via Free Agency and the Draft the last two years. Is thinking it's Beane really that big of a stretch? Look at this offseason and who we have added. If we draft the same the list of garbage will extend 3 seasons. At that point he is no longer a top 15 GM. You can't go 3 years with barely adding multiple starters and no difference makers.