JGMcD2

They’re giving LaFleur credit for developing Jordan Love, but somehow developing Josh Allen happened independent of Sean McDermott? Make it make sense.

Many here would absolutely love to can McDermott and bring in Sean Payton.

Thanks for fixing it. What is Shanahan's record when his QB has a QBR below 65?

You've been pounding this stat the entire thread. He has not been above that threshold in every season he has played. Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2018 and the Bills went 6-10. (Bills were 5-6 when he started) Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2019 and the Bills went 10-6. *Bonus* Tyrod Taylor had a sub 60 QBR in 2017 and the Bills went 9-7. So the Bills are 2 games above .500 in the McDermott era when they have below 65+ QBR seasons. Two winning seasons with a QBR below that threshold.

This is still one of my main issues, what is the objective achievement that we're celebrating? If it's winning a Super Bowl, well then, you're saying 31 other teams are automatically failures every year. If it's getting to a Super Bowl, well then that seems odd, because commentary upthread was he's only a "good coach" if he never wins a Super Bowl. Your point boils down to the fact that you believe people cannot improve or improve significantly enough to make a difference. You must have loved Josh Allen on draft day... should I check the receipts?

Yeah, that’s kind of the point. They’re being revered for all of the talent they’ve assembled, but yet they’re on their way to missing the playoffs in 4/8 seasons. They made the decision to trade for Jimmy G and make him the highest paid QB at the time. It’s easy to say in retrospect to say he limited them, but they hitched their wagon to him thinking he was going to take them to the promise land. They made the decision to give up 3 first round picks to select Trey Lance, only to give up on developing him after 4 starts. These decisions are an indictment on them, and a pretty big ones at that. But who cares about context, forces you to think.

Would you take Sean Payton over Sean McDermott?

What am I missing?

They’ve had three cracks at finding their QB, three different ways, and still haven’t been able to do it. They’ve built a talented roster, so they deserve to get as many chances as they want to fail at finding a QB? Lynch and Shanahan felt that Trey Lance was worth moving three 1st Round picks in order to acquire. They must have considered him to be quite talented? Everyone thought they were going to develop the next Josh Allen… but they weren’t capable of doing that. You’re giving too much credit to Shanahan/Lynch and not enough credit to McDermott/Beane. They didn’t just find Josh, they developed him into the wonderful, incredible, proven QB.

And why do we have the right QB? Who is responsible for molding the guy you consider “the best QB” ? I don’t think Josh would turn into Jimmy G with Shanny as his play caller, but I can make a serious argument that Josh never would’ve turned into Josh with Shanny as his HC. Exhibit A: Trey Lance Exhibit B: Robert Griffin III

You’re taking the guys who have been unable to lock down the most important position in football? An offensive mind that can’t get the QB right? Why is it that Ol’ Conservative Defensive McDermott did a better job identifying his QB than Wünderkid Kyle Shanahan? They’ve had 3 separate cracks at it. The amount that McBeane gets flamed here because Elam has been a bust in the back half of RD1 is hysterical considering Lynch/Shanahan gave up the house to pick Trey Lance in the Top 3 picks. If it wasn’t Lance, it was going to be Mac Jones.

He's in historically rare company, let's not act like coaches in the Super Bowl era who are .600 or better are just floating around. It's 22 coaches stretching across 60 seasons. John Madden (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Vince Lombardi (2 Conference Championships, 2 Super Bowls) George Allen (1 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowls) Matt LaFleur (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowls) Don Shula (6 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowls) Tony Dungy (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Sean McDermott (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Andy Reid (5 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) George Seifert (2 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowl) Bill Belichick (9 Conference Championship, 6 Super Bowl) Mike Tomlin (2 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bruce Arians (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Mike Martz (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bill Cowher (2 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bud Grant (5 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Joe Gibbs (4 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) Sean Payton (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) John Harbaugh (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Marty Schottenheimer (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Mike McCarthy (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bill Walsh (3 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) Tom Landry (5 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowl) What's the median on that group? 1 Conference Championship and 1 Super Bowl? You're making the argument that we have a coach who is 1 of 22 coaches in the 60-year era of the Super Bowl with a .600 or better record, and you think it is worth moving on from that guy because, at the moment, in a given season he is 1-2 wins off of his peers? I'm not saying that McDermott doesn't have to stiffen up and win the big one, but all you're showing me here is he's way closer to being one of THE GREATEST EVER than he is to being let go. You realize that right? That when McDermott wins a Super Bowl, he's going to be on pace to be one of the greatest coaches in the history of the National Football League. @GunnerBill has said it upthread, McDermott would get scooped up as fast as Andy Reid did and instantly make his new team a contender. You're continuing to help illustrate why the mindset of "Championship or Bust" is silly. These kinds of coaches don't grow on trees - you're pointing to Marty Schottenheimer like he's the rule, when in reality he's the exception. You cannot do this with every player but considering how raw and unpredictable the outcomes for Josh Allen were as a draft prospect, it is an absolute fact that you do not have the Josh Allen that you have today without Sean McDermott. It's indisputable.

Sean Payton had 1 instance in 16 seasons in New Orleans with a future HOF QB where he won more than 1 playoff game in a given season. Matt LaFleur had a future HOF QB in GB and hasn’t won more than 1 playoff game in a given season. Kevin O’Connell lost to Daniel Jones in the Wild Card round and has never won a playoff game. Nick Sirianni has lost in the Wild Card round twice in 3 playoff appearances. Mike Vrabel who was fired by Tennessee. Jim Harbaugh… he’s not going to last. He doesn’t like the pressure and health won’t hold up. Ryans probably shouldn’t even be in that category - he has plenty to prove. So yeah, they guys with less obvious warts are… Kyle Shanahan who has never beat Andy Reid and the Chiefs, but has made it work with limited QBs. I’d take him. Sean McVay who has had a ton of success, after he upgraded from Goff to a future HOF QB. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty mixed bag. Dan Campbell who I love and would probably be the other guy I’d take over McDermott on that list. Thanks for making me narrow down the group and help further my point. 3/55 hires so about 6% of the hires I’d take over McDermott and about 2% of the candidate pool over the past 7 seasons. I should I also probably point out that only 1 of those non-McDermott coaches (Vrabel) was in the AFC competing with Belichick and Reid. Who ended Vrabel’s improbably playoff run in 2019? Oh yeah, Mahomes and Reid. Payton and Harbaugh are there now, so we’ll see what happens in the AFC West moving forward. Our ceiling is plenty high, arguably higher than any non Reid/Mahomes combo in the league, but that is the point fans get wrong. It’s about the floor in any given year - you need to get to the dance. Once you’re there it’s somewhat unpredictable. By firing McDermott you’re advocating for what would likely be a Doug Pederson, Zac Taylor, Doug Marrone, Mike Vrabel type hot streak in the playoffs that propels you close to a championship. The problem is those guys are extremely volatile (low floor) and you have an even greater chance of missing the dance all together. Has nobody paid attention to what the Chiefs have done/been doing the past 3 seasons? Floor is high, they get to the dance and grind it out.

I am going to disagree with you pretty strongly on this point, the cupboard is quite bare when it comes to finding coaching talent. If it were easy and quality candidates were hanging off trees, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. There have been 55 head coach changes (bolded) dating back to 2017 when McDermott was hired. By my count, only 128 unique individuals have interviewed for those roles. How many names on this list inspire confidence? Sean McDermott Harold Goodwin Frank Reich* Kris Richard Vance Joseph Anthony Lynn Kyle Shanahan Dave Toub Doug Marrone Tom Coughlin Chip Kelly Mike Smith Josh McDaniels Sean McVay Teryl Austin John Fassel Matt Patricia Sean Payton Steve Wilks Mike Vrabel Tom Cable Keith Armstrong John DeFilippo James Bettcher Brian Flores Jim Schwartz Pat Shurmur Mike Munchak Matt Nagy George Edwards Vic Fangio Jim Bob Cooter Winston Moss Leslie Frazier Dan Campbell Matt Rhule Steve Spagnuolo Eric Studesville Jon Gruden Bobby Johnson Tee Martin Matt LaFleur Kliff Kingsbury Jim Caldwell Adam Gase Zac Taylor Eric Bieniemy Mike McCarthy Hue Jackson Bill Lazor Todd Monken Darren Simmons Shane Waldron Freddie Kitchens Matt Eberflus Nick Sirianni Kevin Stefanski Gregg Williams Pete Carmichael Pat Fitzgerald Chuck Pagano Joe Philbin Dennis Allen Dowell Loggains Darren Rizzi Matt Campbell Bruce Arians Perry Fewell Brian Daboll Mike McDaniel Urban Meyer Greg Roman Robert Saleh Marvin Lewis Joe Judge Jason Garrett Don Martindale Ron Rivera Todd Bowles Joe Brady Nathaniel Hackett Raheem Morris Arthur Smith Darrell Bevell David Culley Josh McCown Brandon Staley Ryan Day Aaron Glenn Patrick Graham Mike Kafka Jerod Mayo Lincoln Riley Duce Staley Byron Leftwich Doug Pederson Dan Quinn Brian Callahan Jonathan Gannon Luke Getsy Kellen Moore Kevin O’Connell Joe Lombardi Lovie Smith Hines Ward Rich Bisaccia Bill O’Brien Jim Harbaugh DeMeco Ryans Thomas Brown Lou Anarumo Ejiro Evero Ken Dorsey Ben Johnson Shane Steichen Jerry Rosburg David Shaw Jeff Saturday Bubba Ventrone Brian Johnson Mike Macdonald Antonio Pierce Bobby Slowik Anthony Weaver Dave Canales Frank Smith Chris Tabor Giff Smith By my count, there are 12 Head Coaches there that inspire some level of confidence: Sean McDermott Sean McVay Kyle Shannahan Sean Payton Mike Vrabel (Unemployed) Dan Campbell Matt LaFleur Nick Sirianni Bruce Arians (Retired) Kevin O’Connell Jim Harbaugh DeMeco Ryans That’s 22% of all hires dating back to 2017 and less than 10% of all interview candidates.

It's just really hard to follow along with this. McDermott isn't Andy Reid or Bill Belichick, so let's fire him? The guys who are #3 and #4 all time in wins in NFL history. There have been 7 Super Bowls since McDermott became the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, Reid and Belichick have represented the AFC in 6/7 and have won 4/7. The likelihood that we find the next Reid or Belichick is so small. If we're lucky we end up with Zac Taylor or Doug Pederson... someone who catches lightning in a bottle, but hopefully we don't end up with the version of a Taylor/Pederson type who severely under performs in the regular season and misses a chance at the dance all together - you know, like the version of them that shows up more often than not. AFC Andy Reid (4 appearances, 3 wins) Bill Belichick (2 appearances, 1 win) Zac Taylor (1 appearance, 0 wins) NFC Sean McVay (2 appearances, 1 win) Doug Pederson (1 appearance, 1 win) Bruce Arians (1 appearance, 1 win) Kyle Shanahan (2 appearances, 0 wins) Nick Sirianni (1 appearance, 0 wins) McDermott has been impeded directly by Belichick and Reid - he had to play in the same division as Belichick and Reid's Chiefs have eliminated the Bills 3 out of the last 4 seasons. It's going to take some breaks to get there and "win one Championship" when you're going against arguably the greatest ever each season. Out of the remainder of those Conference Champion caliber coaches, who would people most want? McVay and Shannahan? I would be thrilled to have someone like McVay or Shanahan, as I view them as the next closest tier down from Belichick and Reid over the last decade. The problem is they haven't been very good at taking down Belichick and (more importantly) Reid either. McVay vs Belichick and Reid (2-2) 11/19/2018 Rams beat Chiefs 54-51 2/3/2019 Patriots beat Rams 13-3 (Super Bowl) 12/10/2020 Rams beat Patriots 24-3 11/27/2022 Chiefs beats Rams 26-10 Shanahan vs Belichick and Reid (1-5) 9/23/2018 Chiefs beat 49ers 38-27 2/2/2020 Chiefs beat 49ers 31-20 (Super Bowl) 10/25/2020 49ers beat Patriots 33-6 10/23/2022 Chiefs beat 49ers 44-23 2/11/2024 Chiefs beat 49ers 25-22 (Super Bowl) 10/20/2024 Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18 They're 3-7 combined and 0-3 in the playoffs. For comparison sake... McDermott vs Belichick and Reid (12-12) 7-8 vs Belichick (1-0 in the playoffs) 5-4 vs Reid (0-3 in the playoffs) 12-12 and 1-3 in the playoffs. There are FAR MORE guys like Zac Taylor and Doug Pederson than there are Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. Then there are FAR MORE guys who are worse than Zac Taylor and Doug Pederson. I feel like I'm being pretty objective here when I say that Sean McDermott is a better coach than Zac Taylor or Doug Pederson, and seeing that head coach hiring is an imperfect science, tells me it's more likely we get a Zac Taylor/Doug Pederson type... and maybe even worse. BONUS: As I stated above, I think McVay and Shanahan are in that next tier behind Belichick and Reid this decade. I also believe that McDermott is in that same tier, as he has played in the much more challenging conference. McDermott is currently 4-0 when matched up against McVay and Shanahan and he gets a crack at McVay again this weekend.