GunnerBill

Our 3rd down defense has to be better than last year. No question. Was only average in 2023 too. Basically been a problem since Leslie left.

Nobody was arguing about 3rd down defense. That was horrific last year. The point was about turnovers having high varience. Well under Sean McDermott the Bills defense bucks that trend.

I take your point, but the Bills defense taking the ball away is something you can pretty much hang your hat on with this team. Will it always come at the most opportune moments? Maybe not. But their track record for having them in big moments is actually pretty decent. Two of their last three victories over the Chiefs for example have been sealed by game ending interceptions of Mahomes. The Miami must win game week 18 last year the same, the famous forced fumble a few years ago when the Cam Newton Patriots were threatening to shock us at home. Even going back to the Raiders and Buccs games in McDermott's first year we had critical turnovers right at the end. They being near the top of the league in defensive takeaways is a pretty safe bet. Them being at the top of turnover differential feels a much riskier proposition. I'd say this is exactly the inverse of your point about defensive turnovers. They definitely were hurt by it in the loss to Baltimore when the Ravens said openly that their plan was to give the Bills the outside and force them to win out there and the next week in Houston when without Shakir Josh completed nine passes in 60 minutes of football. And in the AFCCG when they had the chance to go win the game and couldn't move the ball down the field. Is WR play stopping us being a division winner and a superbowl contender? Nope. Is it a factor that's stopping us getting over the top? Yep. Not the only one, sure. But it is one.

If these guys can all play that is definitely the case. The D needed an injection of younger talent, it got it. Now as long as these are not busts the defensive production simply has to be better than last year.

I have not argued they should have drafted a receiver on day 1 or 2 of this past draft. Nor was that what Jeremy and Joe were arguing. Indeed go to the Landon Jackson draft thread from Friday night and you will find me arguing against the people angry it wasn't a receiver. My point is a much broader one that is not focussed on this past draft and for all Brandon's protestations I'm afraid the numbers do not support him. The Bills, relative to the average level in the NFL under invest in receivers come draft time. At the end of the day 1 receiver drafted in the first three rounds across EIGHT drafts. 40 total picks in rounds 1-5 as Bills GM, only 4 spent on receiver. And the argument against your "but vets give Josh more security" argument is mid level vets also require salary cap investment. Gabe Davis and Kahlil Shakir gave up mid level vet or better production for a fraction of the cost on rookie deals.

Or in the 5th even. He went 4 picks before our pick. At that point our pick plus the late pick we used on Lundt would have got us up for him. And there were MULTIPLE teams that traded out in the 6 picks before Horton went. We absolutely had the opportunity to do it. We valued a Cam Lewis upgrade, a TE3, another boundary corner and a backup OT (all of whom I like as players btw) ahead of a developmental receiver.

So because we are in win now mode every year that is a reason not to prioritise receivers? Shakir is actually an argument to do exactly what some of us wanted him to do this year - take a shot on a day 3 guy with a skillset that can be developed. It isn't even just about this year - Shakir came on in year 2. Let's say they moved up a few spots in round 5 and snagged Tory Horton (who went 4 picks ahead, who the Bills spoke to twice including a 30 visit) maybe he only has 10 catches for 100 yards as a rookie in limited playing time.... but this time next year he is another young receiver in reserve who you can continue to develop. Samuel will be a FA after this season, Kincaid's option decision will be due and you have to look in the wider context at how your offensive weapons stock looks. No. I just think the Bills and Chiefs will always play nip and tuck matchups which come down to the final moments. The last three years we beat them in the regular season twice the defense made a stand to stop them in the end - with the help of Toney lining up offside in 2023 - and then Josh made an incredible play that was all about him in 2024. Even in those cases when it has come down to the end it isn't offensive weapons that have won it for us. It is defense and Josh being all world.

The problem is he is ALWAYS engaged because he is a non-separator. And I agree with @Einstein - he drops way too many balls for a guy who is allegedly a contested catch guy. His best role is a big slot. He is at his most dynamic and elusive with ball in hand.

No question. But as I keep saying I don't believe for a moment that if the Bills keep the Chiefs to 17 in a playoff game it will result in a 29-17 victory. We have played defensive battle type games with them in the regular season. 20-17 and 24-20. It always comes down to the end. If the Bills defense held the Chiefs to 17 points in the post-season they'd hold us to very similar. It's just how these two play each other. It always comes down to the end. It's about the key drives - on both sides. And while I don't dispute the defense hasn't made those key stops when it has mattered either, the last two years on those key drives at the end the offense despite Josh being Josh hasn't been good enough to get it done.

It's crystal clear we have had the ball at the end of the last two playoff losses and haven't got it done with an all world Quarterback. The defense needed upgrades, no question, but I remain unconvinced that we have the pieces when we really need them to go and score at the end of a playoff game for all the marbles.

The thing is you can justify every individual decision in a vacuum that prioritises something else over receiver but when you have spent one pick in the first three rounds on a receiver in EIGHT years, even if you want to include the trade for Stef it is only two in EIGHT years then you can start to make assumptions about their level of urgency and prioritisation of the position.

Three - Harrison Phillips.

For the Bills, on defense, not so much. 2024: 32 (3rd in the NFL) 2023: 30 (3rd in the NFL) 2022: 27 (4th in the NFL - despite playing one game fewer) 2021: 30 (3rd in the NFL) - - - - years below are 16 game seasons - - - - 2020: 26 (3rd in NFL) 2019: 23 (10th in the NFL) 2018: 27 (8th in the NFL) 2017: 25 (9th in the NFL) They have NEVER been outside the top 10 in takeaways under Sean McDermott. That is staggering consistency and says something about how well coached they are on that side of the ball. What was unusual about last season - and is unlikely to be repeated IMO - was their record low in giveaways. They have generally been around middle of the pack in terms of giveaways - averaging 20ish turnovers per year. Then last year suddenly they had a record low with 8 and when you couple that with their consistent ability to take the ball away on defense they suddenly rocketed to the top of turnover differential and that contributed to wins, without question.

My 53: Offense (23) QB - Allen; Trubisky (2) FB - Gilliam (1) RB - Cook; David; Johnson (3) TE - Kincaid; Knox; Hawes (3) WR - Coleman; Palmer; Shakir; Samuel; Shavers (5) OL - Dawkins; Edwards; McGovern; Torrence; Brown; Anderson; Grable; Van Demark; Van Pran-Granger (9) Defense (26) DL - Rousseau; Oliver; Jones; Bosa; Carter; Epenesa; Jackson; Sanders; Walker; Solomon (10) LB - Bernard; Milano; Williams; Andreeson; Ulofoshio (5) CB - Benford; Hairston; Johnson; White; Hancock; Jackson; Strong (7) S - Rapp; Hamlin; Forrest; Bishop; (4) Special Teams (4) K - Bass (1) P - Camarda (1) KR/PR - Codrington (1) LS - Ferguson (1) The guys in orange are the guys I have in genuine roster battles. I think on offense Gilliam could come under pressure if Hawes beats out Davidson for the third tight end job and they like him enough on teams, though my instinct is they keep both. Shavers is my WR5 at the moment by process of elimination if nothing else, he made a big play when he got his chance last year and is a genuine force on special teams. Solomon might be a victim of a numbers game at edge although a camp / pre-season trade of AJ Epenesa is very much a possibility IMO. A team who didn't get what they want at edge in the draft or who loses a guy in camp might be willing to flip you a future 5th round pick for a one year $6.2m contract with no long term commitment. Ulofoshio is in a battle with Spector and I don't totally rule out Spector winning or them both making it at the expense of an extra DL or DB. I have Dane and Dorian Strong making it right now but it might end up being one from two given Codrington is also essentially a corner and it would mean you are keeping eight even if Hancock is double hatting at safety and Codrington as a returner. I also think the two UB boys Lewis and Ingram are going to put up a hell of a fight to dislodge them.

Also despite his protestations to the contrary - that he would have drafted whoever was top of his board - he kinda gave himself away bit with "I didn't feel we fell short because of offense we needed defense." I mean he isn't wrong we needed defense. That McDermott-Frazier D is almost totally dismantled. There is only really Taron and Milano and Ed hanging on who were mainstays of that era. Last year felt like an in between D. Hopefully we just drafted some mainstays of the next era.

Oh good. Another Keon Coleman. I jest, I jest.... well, maybe a bit 😆 Who said Beane is an idiot? I didn't say that and to be fair to Jeremy and Sneaked Off Joe.... nor did they.

It doesn't always have to be a shootout. We have played 24-20 and 20-17 with them. They STILL came down to the last few minutes. I think if the Bills and Chiefs played 10 times 9 would be won inside the final 4 minutes or OT. You might get one where a team wins by a couple of touchdowns. The teams know each other too well. You are not gonna get a Buccs or Eagles like bludgeoning.

I don't expect it to change massively.

I know it is not x+y=z. And yes, we have made the plays at the end in the regular season they have made them in the playoffs. It isn't by any means impossible that it flips in the 2025 postseason. But I do think a genuine vertical threat receiver would help.

Yea but we need to be able to make those plays when we have the ball with a chance to win. Because every Bills - Chiefs game goes to the final 3 minutes. I don't think if our D holds them to 17 we are winning 29-17. I think it is 17-17 with 3 minutes to play. That is what those games are like. They are nip and tuck and you have to make the plays at the end. Now would it be nice one year for our D to make that play at the end? 100% yes. But give me the choice now do I wanna be 21-17 down with Josh having the ball and us on offense or 21-17 up with Pat having the ball and us on defense... I am always choosing the former.

But there would always have been that other guy higher on his board. And that is my theory I don't think he ignores receiver on draft day. I don't think they place enough value on receiver who can make plays down the field when they build their board.

Every year? He must be the unluckiest GM in football then.

Should rename him Yellow Joe.

Yea I don't think McDermott is storming out of the room Doug Marrone style everytime Brandon drafts him a defensive player haha. But honestly this is the way Brandon believes teams should be built. He said it again in that interview today "you gotta have a Quarterback, and then you gotta be good up front." Given a choice between a lineman and a receiver he will always go lineman. It is just who he is. It is like anything, I am now a director at work and I sometimes catch myself making decisions or even using phrases that I go "man I sound just like the guy who was director when I started at bottom of the totem pole." We are all influenced by the professional cultures and philosophies we are exposed to earlier in our careers. And to be clear - just in case Brandon is reading - I think he is a good general manager and I think he just had the best first 2 days of any draft since he snagged Josh Allen. You can believe that and still say the data supports him undervaluing receiver compared to the rest of the NFL. It is what it is.

Gettleman drafted on WR in 5 drafts as Panthers GM. Marty Hurney drafted 6 in the first two days in 15 drafts as the GM over two spells.