dave mcbride

Good thread. The Bills have only 4 safeties on the roster at present. I would not be surprised if they draft one early.

I think QBs are different. I think it's more about players like, say, Stefon Gilmore - a clearly good player at a premier position - whose contractual negotiations are going to be difficult. The Bills DID pick up his option, and he had his best season as a Bill: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GilmSt00.htm. The Bills weren't a good team overall, but if they had the coaching/offense of the last couple of seasons, that fifth year from an elite player might win them a game or two more - enough to maybe get them over the hump. More recently, the Saints picked up Mar

Teams actually still do care about the fifth year option, which only makes sense assuming you trust your judgment about whom you’re drafting. If they draft the next Stefon Gilmore, you can bet they’ll use that option. From Beane himself yesterday: ‘1. The Bills’ spot at No. 30 in the first round is a good one to attract offers. Teams may want to grab another first-round pick due to a run at a position and because first-round picks can be kept under contract for an extra year, via the fifth-year option that teams are allowed to apply to the contracts of first round picks.

And LOL: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/20/dave-gettleman-prioritized-devontae-booker-thinking-giants-cant-have-too-many-running-backs/

Postseason, dude. The fans of good teams care about that stuff, and rightly so. I am not justifying the pick; just reminding people that the highest level games against the highest level competition actually matter. The fact that people don’t work those stats into their evals is laughable. Not directed at you, btw.

My point is that in any measure of a player, if we're not including postseason performance, we're doing it wrong. He wasn't just good in the 2018 postseason; he was a legit difference maker who was a key player in all three wins. 71 carries for 336 yards and 6 TDs in three games vs. top competition is pretty great. I forgive a lot of year 3 decline if a player can offer me that in the games that matter most. See above. You should probably add in James White (4th round pick), who had the best SB of all these guys.

Good post, but ... he had a whale of postseason on 2018. That always counts in my book.

True, but Moss looks like a pretty good player who measurably improved over the course of the season. Closing the final 6 games at 4.85 ypc is first-round production. And Singletary is hardly terrible. My questions about him have nothing to do with the running game, but rather the passing game.

I think Moss is pretty good and I expect he'll have a surprisingly productive season. He came on late in the season and played wel , averaging 4.85 ypc over the final 6 games (257 yards on 53 carries). A first-round RB isn't likely to average 4.8 ypc. Plus Breida has averaged 4.9 ypc on 440 carries over his career. I think the Bills RB stable is actually pretty solid.

Why would you ever take a RB knowing that it's foolish to pick up a fifth year option when you can grab a good CB/OT/DE whose fifth year option you'll be thrilled to get? Avoid RBs in the first round at all costs and focus on positions where -- if the player is good -- the fifth year option is something you'll want to pick up. The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option.

I was actually pretty impressed by Moss later in the season. I think he's going to be a good NFL back for 3-4 years.

The full guarantee in year five is what makes me very leery of picking up that option. He's a decent player with physical upside, but he's replaceable.

Great piece. Calling @BADOLBILZ ...

There won’t be a future if Garappolo suffers his fifth serious injury in six seasons this year (he had two last year that cost him at separate points) and the backup qb play sucks again. Four out of five losing seasons is not a recipe for job retention.

Our quarterback was ryan fitzpatrick. The top need was ALWAYS qb for close to two decades.