dave mcbride

This is just ignorant. As anyone who actually follows the Bills in any depth knows, Oliver was playing injured in that Bengals playoff game and was wearing a shoulder harness. If it wasn’t a playoff game, I doubt he would have played. Plus Daquon unfortunately got hurt in the final game of the regular season and was out. It literally amazes me year after year that fans who should know better (if they actually looked at injury reports, which is an open question) make these death-or-glory judgements about games without factoring in ininjury/personnel issues. The Bills have had terrible luck on that front the last couple of years.

DE/Edge (and defense more generally) is apparently supposed to be deep next year. Walter Football's way-too-early mock has 8 Edge players and 5 DTs going in the first round: https://walterfootball.com/draft2025.php. I sort of expect them to go DE.

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds. Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

Ha! My thinking exactly. That should never guide decision-making.

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

It would seem to me that the difference between even elite tight ends and elite WRs (especially X receivers) is in ypr. There is the rare case of a Gronk averaging 14-16 yards per reception, but he's the best TE in NFL history (IMO) and a true unicorn: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GronRo00.htm. Kittle is the closest I can think of (13.6 lifetime). Most of the really good ones are in the 11-12 ypr range (Kelce is 12.5 lifetime, which is incredibly good for a TE; Tony Gonzalez is 11.4 and Jay Novacek 11.0). Most are below that, even the good ones (Hockenson is 10.4, for instance). Conversely, Mike Evans is lifetime 15.3, meaning he gives you deep threat capability that really opens up an offense. That sort of productivity in ypr is unique the WR position, particularly the X role. WRs almost always lead the league in ypr. Last year, 43 of the top 44 players in ypr were receivers: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving.htm#receiving::rec_yds_per_rec. Kittle was the lone TE, finishing 12th. Point is, they are different positions with different types of productivity, and having a deep threat is really helpful to an offense. Most TEs aren't deep threats, and as of now the Bills don't have a real deep threat because none of their receivers fit the role. Maybe Coleman will be that guy, but he's a little slow. So I'm skeptical. Hope I'm proven wrong.

That's pretty normal #2 numbers, right? Beasely had 106, 107, and 112 between 2019-2021, with 2021 being the first 17 game season. Tee Higgins had 108, 110, and 109 from 2020-2022 (he was hurt for a bit last season). Aiyuk had 105 last season and Samuel 89 (the latter missed two games).

He's already clearly better than Foster. Foster was a complete non-factor after that one season and he ran hardly any of the sorts of routes that Shakir runs. There's gotta be a better comp than him. Foster was basically a one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind given the receiving talent on that 2018 team. I mean, someone had to be the target that season.

I'm going to push back a bit on the Shakir narrative here. When making these statistical arguments, it's imperative to include postseason games (they're the most important ones!!), and in the Bills two playoff games Shakir averaged 6 targets per game. That's "volume," and 10 out of 12 of those passes resulted in completions (with two being TDs). And in both games they played good defenses. This comes after averaging 2.7 targets per game in the regular season. But even that's deceiving; he had 6 targets in the final game (vs Miami) and 4 vs. NE the week before. He had only FIVE targets in the first six games of the season. Clearly, his role changed and he was handling close to Diggs-level volume (but not quite) by the final four must-win games of the season (inclusive of playoffs). In those same final four games, Kincaid had 26 targets, which averages to 111 per season. Point is, you have to factor in both the playoffs and change over time.

I wondered that, but it was pretty clear that the Panthers were going to take Legette (indeed, Legette said he met with them multiple times and that they told him they'd take him). Plus Morgan wasn't going to lie to Bean. That would serve no purpose and would create a rift in an otherwise very friendly relationship. Christ, Bean gave him his first management job! Point is, if they preferred Legette, the Bills would have taken him. Actions speak louder than words (to quote you!), and the actions say that they wanted Coleman all along.

You shouldn't laugh about Corey Dillon, who has a very strong HOF case: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DillCo00.htm. He is ranked 19th in rushing yards all time.

The world we have lost … 😬

Since the end of the 2019 season, OBJ has 102 receptions. That's some hardcore late-period Sammy Watkins style production.