GunnerBill

Board update: 1. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas 2. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado 3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas 4. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU 5. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue 6. Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford 7. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State 8. Zy Alexander, CB, LSU 9. Josh Farmer, DT, Florida State 10. DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State

Back to back safeties for the Falcons. Bowman to play in the box, Watts to play deep. Like that.

Bowman was one of my contenders for the Bills. He's gone.

Day 3 running board ordering always confuses me.

Love that pick for the Eagles.

Ugghhh... first pick I don't like

There goes Thornton.... But the Bills have moved up!!! We are on the clock. This has to be Royals

Umph.

Yes. I am aware.

Here we go.... reminder of my board as we kick off: 1. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas 2. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado 3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas 4. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU 5. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue 6. Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford 7. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State 8. Jack Sawyer, DE, Ohio State 9. Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona 10. Zy Alexander, CB, LSU 11. CJ West, DT, Indiana 12. Josh Farmer, DT, Florida State 13. DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State 14. Kyle Kennard, DE, South Carolina 15. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee

Ah, thanks. Missed that on Jackson. Yea that isn't a bad three cone time. Beane did refer to he "tested better than I expected him to" so I think the Bills share the slight concern about his stiffness and lateral quickness. I like Ayomanor a lot too. I think he is a true vertical guy but he doesn't bring the speed. I wouldn't be upset with him though. And agreed. If they get up for a receiver early today I don't care that much if they want to draft 5 or 6 Austin Proehl type favours to mates from thereon in 😄

I've just posted by day two debrief. I think one of the vertical outside receivers with speed - Royals, Horton, Thornton - with a trade up would be my preference to start day 3. I still think that element is missing from our offense. And while those guys (maybe less so Royals actually) are probably not down in and down out starters, having that option for Josh within our rotation would be nice. Otherwise I think linebacker looks like a spot with some value mid 4th through to late 5th and if we are sitting and picking I expect at least one of those picks to go at the spot and another corner to come off the board somewhere - possibly a guy they think can backup / eventually succeed Taron in the slot?

The biggest story out of day two of the 2025 NFL draft is undoubtedly the Shedeur Sanders slide. But I think everyone is pretty much bored of it by this point, so that is the only mention it will get in this debrief.... let's get on with the show! The Bills Picks... The Bills went into day 2 with two picks in the second round as a result of the Stefon Diggs trade last year. They sat at #56 and #62 and their pre-draft activity indicated pretty strongly it was going to be a day for defensive line. Most of us expected a defensive tackle and a defensive end and that's exactly what happened, though not quite the way we imagined. Let's start with the trade up for TJ Sanders. By the Jimmy Johnson chart the Bills gave up a points value of 700 and in return they got a points value of 721. By the Rich Hill chart the Bills gave up a points value of 212 and in return they got a points value of 214. I don't know how often that happens that the team trading UP wins trade by points value on both commonly used draft value charts but it is pretty safe to assume it isn't that often. So the trade was a win. To get up 15 spots in round 2 without sacrificing a day two pick is good business. Then the selection - TJ Sanders was one of my guys. I loved his film. He has great hands (those who have read my stuff over the years know how much I value that in defensive linemen), a rapid first step and long arms that help him win quickly. He was my 7th best available player at the point the Bills drafted him and once you remove from that the three guys who were slipping for injury/character reasons - Mike Green, Will Johnson and Shavon Revel - he was the 4th best remaining and another of those ahead of him was Trey Amos which would have been an unlikely double dip at corner. I know some of the draft sites were not as high on him but trust me this guy is a really, really good football player with 8.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss over his two years as a starter for South Carolina. And this wasn't a guy racking up stats in the out of conference games against Mount Union, this was a guy making plays against Georgia, Florida, Clemson, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The one question I think it is fair for someone who doesn't like this pick to ask is "what percentage of snaps are you going to get for your investment?" because he is overwhelmingly a 3Tech defensive tackle, playing the same spot as Ed Oliver who the last two seasons has played c.70% of the Bills defensive snaps. He did do some 1Tech in 2023 but he is not as effective there, ehile his technique against the run is solid I think he struggles to anchor against double teams and is too easily moved off his spot to play a lot of 1Tech in base. So he has to be the guy who plays all the snaps when Ed comes out - and while the first two thirds of last season was some of Ed Oliver's poorest football as a Bill, when he is on - as he was at the end of the year - you definitely notice the difference in the Bills ability to push the pocket when he is off the field. You also have to commit to getting him onto the field with Ed Oliver in 3rd down passing situations. If I see 3rd and 4s or longer where the Bills still have Daquan Jones or DeWayne Carter in the game other than when the opposition is in no huddle and stopping you subbing I will be asking serious questions of both the coaches and Beane and his crew because that would be a serious disconnect. It also raises a few questions for me about what they do with Larry Ogunjobi once he is off his suspension. @gonzo1105 discussed that in our collab mock pod so I won't repeat it all here but yet again I didn't love Beane's free agency approach to the position. One final point... I said it last night, but will repeat here... anyone thinking Sanders would have got to #56 is mistaken in my view. I'm convinced the Bills moved up to gazump the San Francisco 49ers who we know have a need at defensive tackle (both spots but more so at 3T) and we know they did a lot of work on guys who fit Sanders profile. They were heavily linked with Walter Nolan who is a similar type in round 1 and they had Sanders himself in for a top 30 visit. Two picks after Sanders was selected by Buffalo they picked a defensive tackle in Alfred Collins who they didn't meet with and who fills their less egregious need - I'm 95% sure the Bills stole their guy. But overall, my take on this is it is a very good pick. He is a really good player and when he is on the field he is capable of making game altering plays for the Bills defense. Moving onto Landon Jackson. I'm surprised he made it to #72. I wasn't as high on him as some of the hype that had him even sneaking into the end of round 1 midway through draft season, he was a 2nd/3rd borderline grade on my board but by the time the Bills selected him he was my 10th best remaining and again at least two of the guys ahead of him by my board - Isaiah Bond and Shavon Revel - were sliders for character/injury reasons. So Jackson represented great value where the Bills got him. I've already said elsewhere but will repeat here for the record that part of the slide was likely about scheme fits. I think he only really suits 4-3 defenses that like to use bigger base ends in tighter alignments - and when I watched Beane's post day 2 presser this morning almost the first words out of his mouth about Jackson were "base end." I do wonder if this might mean using Greg Rousseau more in some wider alignments - even some 9Tech. They did do more of that last year under Bobby Babich than they have done previously and I think if you are lining Groot and Jackson up as your two defensive ends in some base packages that is probably how you get the best from them as a combination. Obviously they have Joey Bosa and AJ Epenesa to factor into that rotation too, but it bears watching as to ways they align them when the season begins. Jackson is definitely the Bills type. Length - 92nd percentile in terms of wingspan - and heavy hands. He has a vicious rip move and a relentless motor. The knocks on his game for me are that he is a bit stiff as an athlete. The tape doesn't quite show the 4.69 speed he demonstrated at the Combine and it was noticeable that he skipped the agility testing because I think that would have been less than stellar. His height also means he sometimes struggles with leverage and pad level in the run game and he didn't always finish when around the Quarterback as well as you'd want... but I think there is some ceiling there for sure. Really good value pick for an intriguing player at a position where the Bills definitely had room for a young guy looking not just at 2025 but beyond. Before I move off the Bills picks, another point of interest about their MO through two days of this draft - they have tended to go for guys who have not been big transfer / portal guys. Jackson did play a year at LSU before he transferred to Arkansas but he didn't really get on the field at LSU so that was more of an old fashioned transfer where it was just a guy wanting a chance to play. Both Hairston and Sanders are the increasingly rare examples of one school guys. Beane talked about the difficulties of evaluating multiple school guys in his pre-draft presser and I find it interesting that they have stayed away from them by and large so far. That might be coincidence. But we know this regime has method in most things it does and it believes in certain things. It is why they are not actually that difficult to mock draft for - @gonzo1105 and I had Hairston and Jackson to the Bills in our collab pod - because they tend to stick pretty closely to a pattern. Maybe not going for a ton of portal guys is something to add to the Bills ideal prospect profile. What about the other 31... I'm not going to be popular here but two of the day 2 hauls I quite liked came from two of the Bills most heated rivals - the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. I thought the Chiefs had a good day two with: Omarr Norman-Lott, a nice interior pass rushing 3Tech that will help them manage the load on Chris Jones as he is about to turn 31; Ashton Gillotte a productive, if slightly unusual, edge rusher who looks like a 3Tech but plays outside and will fit nicely in their rotation; and Nohl Williams a long corner who is tailor made for their scheme (reminds me a lot of Charvarious Ward) and I think will be a starter in their nickel package that allows them to get Trent McDuffie back inside in those situations which is where he elevates to true elite status. This is their model now for the most part - round 1 for protection or weapons for Mahomes, rounds two and three for pieces for Spags. The Patriots took: TreVeyon Henderson at the top of the second round who gives them a home run threat in the backfield next to Drake Maye to help take some pressure off; Kyle Williams at the top of the third who I did think was taken a little early for my tastes but finally adds some dynamism and speed at receiver which has felt like a need in New England for about 15 seasons; and Jared Wilson, the center out of Georgia at the end of round 3 who is the best pure center in this draft, highly athletic and is probably an upgrade on what they got the last couple of years from the now retired David Andrews whose body was failing him. They attacked their defense in free agency and are using the draft to put some pieces around their young Quarterback. Not sure it vaults them into playoff contention in 2025, but they will be improved and if these guys hit then by 2026 the Patriots could be properly competitive again. As for who didn't I like.... I honestly think the Lions have had a really poor draft. I thought Tyleik Williams as a two down only defensive tackle at #28 was a bit of a reach and then trading in the late second to secure guard Tate Ratledge was not a move I was a fan of. I had an early 4th round grade on him and I just think this was way too soon for him even if he does fill a need given Kevin Zeitler's departure in free agency. They then made an even bigger trade up in round three giving up two future 3rds to jump to the top of the round for Isaac TeSlaa a big slot from Arkansas. He tested very well and has a high RAS score but when I watched the tape I was pretty unimpressed. I didn't think he was gradable for my board and had an indicative 7th round / priority free agent rating. The Lions have proven people wrong before - I was one of the folks who thought Jahmyr Gibbs was taken too early a couple of years back and that worked out. But I just think this is three pretty low ceiling prospects. Time will tell. I also didn't love what the Saints did. I get it they might not like the Quarterback who shall not be named who remains on the board and I haven't evaluated Tyler Shough in order to have a really clear view on him. But he turns 26 at the start of his rookie season, lost his job at Oregon, couldn't stay healthy at Texas Tech and only really jumped into early round draft contention in his SEVENTH season of college football this past year at Louisville. I know Bo Nix was dinged for staying in college for ages and losing his job at Auburn but Shough is a year older than Nix and played at an additional school. He is a handsome chap, I'll give him that, but otherwise not sure I'd be excited as a Saints fan. And after Shough, two guys with fourth round grades on my board in Vernon Broughton the defensive tackle from Texas and Jonas Sanker the safety from Virginia. I don't dislike either player but felt it was early for both of them and there were better players left on the board. What's left? I had watched enough tape to grade and put on my board 142 players in this class. As we enter day three 91 of them have been selected and 51 of them remain. Beyond the obvious - Isaiah Bond (who given the criminal issue may be lucky to get drafted at all) and the Quarterback that shall not be named - probably the most surprising name remaining to me is Cam Williams the Texas Longhorns right tackle. Both @gonzo1105 and I liked him, he was the 50th ranked player on my big board and while I think he is probably right tackle only I am a little shocked he is still there. Anyway, my best 15 currently remaining are listed below: 1. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas 2. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado 3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas 4. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU 5. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue 6. Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford 7. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State 8. Jack Sawyer, DE, Ohio State 9. Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona 10. Zy Alexander, CB, LSU 11. CJ West, DT, Indiana 12. Josh Farmer, DT, Florida State 13. DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State 14. Kyle Kennard, DE, South Carolina 15. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee The Bills currently sit at #132. Looking at my board I think runs on running back and, particularly, wide receiver will start early today. I'd like the Bills to get aggressive to try and hit their need for a true outside, vertical receiver. The three guys I have my eye on are: Jalen Royals, Utah State - 7th BPA by my board Tory Horton, Colorado State - 17th BPA by my board Dont'e Thonrton Jnr, Tennessee - 24th BPA by my board Any of those would bring an element that we still don't currently possess to our offense (yes Palmer is faster than his combine time and can run vertical routes outside, but he isn't a pure vertical threat guy he is more of a route runner). I'd love us to package #132 and one or two of our three 5th rounders to move up for one of those three guys. However, if they stay where they are then thinking about needs, value and guys they have met with some of the names to watch are: Jaydon Blue, RB, Texas Teddye Buchanan, LB, Cal Chris 'Pooh' Paul, LB, Ole Miss Dorian Strong, CB, Virginia Tech Deone Walker, DT, Kentucky Billy Bowman, S, Oklahoma One day remaining... and it's time for picks by people dressed up as furry animals, hanging from zipwires and located in countries all around the world. Savour every last one. Once it's over we have to wait a year to do it all again!

The only circumstances I could really imagine their first pick being a DT was a trade back into round 2 and Tyleik Williams had made it there. We have all the data points we need on this regime. The guys they bring in for visits or hold private workouts with are the guys they like to draft. I suppose a world where Hairston, Amos, Scourton and Williams all went before #30 and Harmon or Nolen or Grant were sitting there.... sure they might have done it - that would have been more analogous to the one exception we have to their rule which was Kincaid in 2023 when I honestly think they misread the board expected certain guys to get them and then were in panic mode. But it wouldn't be plan A, B or C..... we'd be on to plan X, Y and Z by that stage.

I am also slightly surprised he lasted as long as he did. When the Lions traded up in the 2nd round I felt absolutely sure it was for Jackson. They picked another guy I think you took in a mock.... Tate Ratledge - I'm less high on him and he was a reach IMO. However, part of it is scheme fit. Projecting Jackson to NFL defenses is tricky. I don't think he has the bend or speed to play primarily as a stand up rusher in a 3-4 or as a wide 9 rusher in a 4-3, and I don't think his leverage in the run game is good enough consistently to be a 4i defensive end in a 3-4 front. So you end up looking at him as primarily a 5 tech in a 4-3 defense that utilises bigger ends in more tight alignments and that does narrow the field significantly..... Buffalo, Detroit, San Fran, New Orleans, possibly Washington... there are probably a couple more that aren't springing to mind but it is likely fewer than 10. The other factor is consistency. You have to ask yourself how does a guy who DOMINATED to the extent he did in that Alabama game have only 9.5 sacks in the 23 other games he started over the past two years. But I like the pick. I think it was excellent value where the Bills made it, he fits our defense and I think there is still some untapped potential there for sure. He is only just turned 22. I'm not sure he is at his ceiling yet.

You are not really wrong.... but this draft was more a complimentary pieces draft than a playmaker draft on offense. The year to be annoyed at them under prioritising offensive playmakers was last year. This draft was always a defensive line draft and I don't blame them for following the board there. It is where the value is.

Just to say.... we had Hairston and Jackson to the Bills here. Jackson admittedly we had at the first 2nd rounder that became TJ Sanders in a trade up in reality, rather than the second 2nd rounder that became the 3rd we used on Jackson. But still decent effort.

I know for a fact Mukuba (Eagles) and Gillotte (Chiefs) were outside my top 15 when they were picked. Not that either guy was miles away but they were more like 20-25 BPA by my board than top 10. The Ravens took my best available with their first two picks - Malaki Starks and Mike Green were both #1 on my board by the point they went - but then Emery Jones I had a low 4th on so he was way outside and would drag the average down. Similar happened with the Bills in 2019 I seem to recall. Other than Singletary, who was more in the 20s of my best available the rest of their first six picks: Oliver, Ford, Knox, Joseph and Johnson were all there or thereabouts my top 10 when they were picked.

I'm in the camp I wanna keep one 5th, but I'm willing to spend 2 to get up near the top of the 4th. I think there are now 3 receivers I'd consider a fit: Royals Horton Thornton I'd be calling teams tomorrow morning scoping out deals, working out how high I can get in the 4th. And then as soon as one of those 3 comes off the board I'd be trying to pull the trigger. If the Bills can land one of those guys to add to the 3 pieces so far I'll be really happy with this draft. Then use the remaining 5th, two 6ths and 7th on the obligatory linebacker, another corner (even possibly a slot guy), a 1T type of DT and either a safety or some sort of STer (whether that is a returner, kicker, punter... whatever).

And just to add to this in the context of the wide receiver debate I can see is raging.... and I get it the Bills have under invested in receiver over the past 5 years and I have been as critical of that as anyone... but in this draft in particular the way it fell. At #30 I had ZERO wide receivers on the board graded higher than Hairston At #41 I had ZERO wide receivers on the board graded higher than Sanders At #72 I had ONE wide receiver on the board graded higher than Jackson and that guy is currently on bail in regards to sexual assault allegations against him The Bills have not ignored or passed over receivers in this draft. They'd have been reaching if they'd gone receiver at any of those spots.

Jackson was my 10th best available when we turned the card in and at least Revel (injury) and Bond (character) ranked above him were there because of not football reasons. So far Beane has taken my 8th BPA (Hairston); 7th BPA (Sanders); and 10th BPA (Jackson) and in each case there were 2 or 3 guys above them who were sliding because of injury or character issues. So at least from my perspective so far the Bills have been in the ballpark in terms of following the board.

No the Chiefs play a 4-3. Norman-Lott is going to be the backup to Jones, spell him a bit more as he ages, and they will hope gives them someone in the hut to potentially take over when Jones ages out. They will be on the field together in some obvious passing down situations - like Sanders and Oliver will for the Bills - but you are not have those two out there together almost at all in base. I liked Gillotte a lot too, he was one of my guys. Slightly unusual body shape though in that he is built like a stockier inside guy but plays on the edge. I think he will be a situational guy probably behind Karlaftis. They tend to like a slightly twitchier guy on the other side.

Okay an end of day two stocktake.... 1. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas 2. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado 3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas 4. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU 5. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue 6. Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford 7. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State 8. Jack Sawyer, DE, Ohio State 9. Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona 10. Zy Alexander, CB, LSU 11. CJ West, DT, Indiana 12. Josh Farmer, DT, Florida State 13. DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State 14. Kyle Kennard, DE, South Carolina 15. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee Wide Receiver and Running Back will be popular early tomorrow. Even behind the guys on this list there is a little stack of guys in both spots who start to come into consideration early day 3. Would like to see Beane try and get into the top 10 picks of the 4th for a receiver.

Darn it there goes Felton

Nah. Lott can definitely ONLY play 3T. He is really bad holding his anchor against the run. Good enough to start - agreed.