GunnerBill

I'm not as persuaded. He needs to be better than 2024 for me. Not to prove he can be an NFL starter on a decent defense. But to justify being paid in a non-premium position.

Tier 1 - the elite 1. Mahomes 2. Allen 3. Burrow 4. Jackson - - - Tier 2 - the franchise 5. Hurts 6. Herbert 7. Prescott 8. Daniels 9. Goff 10. Love 11. Mayfield 12. Stafford 13. Stroud - - - Tier 3 - the starter 14. Tagovailoa 15. Purdy 16. Nix 17. Smith 18. Lawrence 19. Murray - - - Tier 4 - the question mark 20. Rodgers 21. Darnold 22. Maye 23. Williams 24. Young - - - Tier 5 - the bridge 25. Fields 26. Wilson 27. Richardson 28. Flacco - - - Tier 6 - the unknown UR. Penix UR. McCarthy UR. Ward UR. Shough

He is 9th in AAV if you only include MLBs. But it isn't even that. It isn't where he ranks against his peers. It is about where else the Bills could have allocated that money.

He also seems to have accepted that the criticism was warranted. I give him real credit for that. Genuinely I do. As someone who isn't the biggest fan of his game I think his presser was really impressive. He did indeed put some trash on tape in 2024. It wasn't all trash. It was interspersed with some good. But impressive for a young kid to hold himself to account the way he did.

I'm not saying he needs to match 2023 to be clear. But there is a need for some of the 2023 splash plays to make that contract worth it over the long run.

Right now I see Shakir and Keon getting the bulk of the snaps, targets and yards. Palmer and Moore I see more as situational players and honestly I don't know where I see Samuel's role. McKenzie gadget? Backup and spot duty? Regular starter? No idea. Yardage wise Something like: Shakir 800 to 1,000 Coleman 700 to 900 Kincaid 500 to 750 Palmer 400 to 600 Moore 250 to 500 Samuel 100 to 350

Yea if the replacement is Trubisky they win somewhere between 5 and 7 IMO. If it is league average Quarterback - the Geno Smith Test - it's 8 to 10 If only there was a thread where these opinions could be posted.....

Less than a week ago.

Yea agreed - that was the point I was trying to make with Bernard. The Bills love him because he is in every way reliable. He lines up correctly, he gets others lined up correctly and he is assignment sound. He is a leader and a mature professional off the field. There were excuses for the regression in 2024, and even on 2024 form I'm not arguing Bernard was a problem or a weak link or anything.... I'm just saying for me to like the contract long term there needs to be some more of the 2023 playmaking. On pro bowls vs all pros I get ya but to me I think 1st team all pro comes first, then 2nd team all pro and then pro bowler.

Okay I was literally one yard out in my Khalil Shakir projection for last year (and bang on the money for TDs) so let's see if I can repeat the dosage with Keon for 2025. 96 targets 52 receptions 858 yards 8 touchdowns

I think he made more throws that night than in any other game where I legit went "no other human in the world can make that throw, not even Mahomes." The perfect game v New England don't get me wrong Josh was great but the offense was humming. Guys were open all over the field the Bills just had the Patriots beat every which way.

Taron Johnson and Micah Hyde also. Taron 1x 2nd team all pro in 2023 Micah 2x 2nd team all pro.... 2017 and I think 2021. Tre was 1x 1st team (2019) and 1x 2nd team (2020) JoPo I think just 1x 1st team in 2021 Milano just 1x 1st team all pro in 2022 Tremaine was never an all pro but did make a pro bowl or maybe two (I confess I am less hot on pro bowls I have kind of given up on them). What's my point with all that? I think basically it is to say that really the only "perennial all pro" type guy we had in all those years on those good defenses was Tre White before the ACL. I think he would probably have been a guy who ended up with 3 or 4 or maybe even 5 all pro nods had the injuries not struck. The only other guy with more than one all pro was Micah, both were 2nd team and they were I think 4 years apart. And I think to this.... it is the underrated part of why they like Bernard. In 2023 he made way more splash plays than Tremaine Edmunds ever made for us. The splash plays disappeared a bit in 2024 and indeed some teams picked on him a bit in coverage situations but he was still more reliable than Edmunds ever was in the real nuts and bolts of the scheme. He rarely misses his gap in the run game and his drops are more consistent in the pass game. He needs to re-find some of the 2023 form for me to like that contract long term but from the Bills' perspective he is reliable.

I still think his best ever game was @ San Francisco in the covid year 2020.

Simple answer to that - no, he wasn't.

Yea. Dorian wouldn't see it if you ran it 5 times straight. If he can play run and hit football he is a playmaker. If you make him think after the snap he is screwed. For sure better means more than physically better.

I think you are slightly talking past each other. What I think @Mr. WEO is saying is impossible is getting Shakir 160 targets. And I sort of agree with him. Could you just throw it at him 160 times to prove a point? Sure. Could you actually find 160 occasions during the season to target him in a way that is going to help the offense? No, I don't think you could. His skillset simply isn't well rounded enough to do that.

Was clear with Bishop last year IMO. He was out of position so often his teammates did not trust him and it was affecting how they played their own responsibilities.

I can't really comment on Kelly but I think Josh's understanding pre-snap has really come on under Brady (because the offense requires it more of him). However there is no way right now I'd let Josh Allen call the entire game. He gets too amped up at times as it is and I think he'd call his own number every play because he thinks he is the best player on the field. And he is right. But you can't win in the NFL that way. I understand by way of anecdote that maybe Kelly was guilty of that in SBXXV too. But I think generally he must have been pretty good at it.

And yet there were games almost a full 12 months later where Dorian Williams still resembled a spinning top, despite playing a ton of football in Milano's absence in the meantime. The very same Chiefs abused him in week 11 and the Ravens embarrassed him twice last season. His best game as a Bill, by far, was Jacksonville in week 3 and far from that being a catalyst for improvement it now looks like a swallow that didn't sniff a summer. I think we are close to the point where we have to admit his play recognition skills are not where they need to be and his understanding of the defense is a problem (and I liked Dorian coming out).

I don't think Tre is a lock for the roster. If Hairston looks good and wins the job and Tre is struggling I think them deciding they want to keep and invest in the young guys as depth is a possibility and Tre would be potentially available later in the year. That is what we have seen happen across the NFL with the new practice squad rules. But if Hairston struggles and they are not sure about throwing him out there I am 95% sure it will be Tre, even if pre-season is rough, because they know what Tre White on a football field in this defense looks like. Probably 5% it would be Dane. I think Strong and Ingram are pretty much 0% shots to start week 1 in the absence, of course, of injuries ahead of them. I am not putting a huge amount of stock on him running with the 1s in June or his June performances. I am putting stock in what the Bills want and believe in from their corners. And the Benford situation is not analogous. Benford was competing with a fellow rookie - Elam. There was no vet alternative. In the end I think they both played week 1 from memory because Dane was out and then Dane came in week 2 and they went to a job share (slanted initially in Benford's favour) at CB2. Favours the vet over the rookie IF ALL ELSE IS EQUAL. Just to be absolutely clear. If a rookie is better he plays. They have started a ton of rookies early. The ones they haven't have generally not been good. Cook and Bernard the two exceptions and Bernard was not better as a rookie than Edmunds so that kinda made sense.

Was a kid name Billy Jones. Fast as lightening but erractic movement and technique. I thought he was too raw and let him go. I re-signed him 6 months later. But I might have won an extra title in the meantime had I kept him. Oh well.

Maybe. I admit I hate mental mistakes as well. It is, as someone who has coached, the most infuriating and frustrating thing that happens in a sporting contest. My view is lean towards the rookie until they repeat the mistake. At the point you have to pull them unless everything else they are doing is clearly outperforming the vet. Very occasionally you miss that way. Im my soccer coaching I can immediately think of one guy I definitely pulled the plug too early on and regretted. But I can think of a ton more where my instinct was 100% correct.

I think he probably does. I reject the "he doesn't trust rookies". If they are better they play. I can't think of a single rookie he has sat who later we went "okay maybe he should have played" maybe Cook > Singletary as a rookie. But if there are ties I do think he tends towards experience. He hates mental mistakes more than he hates the guys just being out "athleted" (not a word I know).

I can see that, but I don't think that is about longevity which was more my issue with your original post. It is about the sum of the whole (ie. the pairing) being greater than the sum of the parts. And I do get that. Personally I always thought Poyer was the more impactful playmaker but possibly because he knew he could take a risk or two because Hyde would always be in position to cover him.

Poyer wasn't here long enough? He was here 8 years and was brilliant for 7 of them!