Ethan in Cleveland

He will not. They will draft an OT to push Brown and or replace Dawkins next year. Everything changed. They struggled all year despite the stats and got blown out at home in the playoffs. What hasn't changed is the HC. Who said they were committed to him starting? They are committed to giving him a chance. Its not as if he hasn't had some good moments. They will draft another OT to replace Brown this year or Dawkins next.

Swing OT. Still draft an OT Good bye Doyle

Yeah I guess my point was I'm sure when Minnesota drafted Diggs they didn't think he was a Randy Moss replacement either. We just don't know. Here's the other thing. The GMs don't know either. Just like Brad Pitt said in moneyball you just don't know. You say you do but you don't. They need OL and WR out of this draft. As someone else said if you drafted OL and WR in every draft in the top 4 rounds with Josh Allen you probably are making a wise decision. NFL has changed and we used to think pass rushers and corners still mattered. Now there is no defense to stop the top QBs. Dont even try. Hope you get 3 stops a game by penalty, turnover, missed FG, or the occasional good play. Otherwise just build a team to score 40 every game. They have the QB. Get him as many pieces as possible.

Diggs was not a first round pick. They can find a future #1 WR there or even in the second round. Dawkins dead cap hit for next year is $7M but falls dramatically after that. If he rebounds and plays well in 2023 I can see a 2-3 year extension. However he really has only been playing well for about a 6-8 game stretch of 2021 and regressed to really average at best in 2022. It is far more likely he is a post June 1 cut in 2024 and they draft his replacement this year. Whoever they draft will compete with Brown at RT and then will be slotted to replace Dawkins at LT in 2024.

Its why trading down instead of up is usually better. Having more picks just increases your odds. Losing out on the 5th year option is a negative but it would not be bad to trade out of 27 for an extra day 2 pick. Conversely I'm in the camp that after the 5th round those guys are no better than an UDFA. Just trade away your 6th and 7th round picks for higher rounds next year. There is no roster room for those guys. They just end up being camp bodies and end up in other teams squads. You can find camp bodies on the UDFA market. If you parlay and package those picks you can then move around a little bit in the middle rounds without sacrificing a mid round pick.

Because he just signed a 4 yr contract and has a $6.5M dead cap hit if they let him go. He is a solid guard and if Morse gets hurt he is a very good center. He would be cheap to slide over to center in 2024 if Morse is gone. Brown and Dawkins regression are the biggest issues now that Saffold is gone. Draft OT and C/G this year to prepare for the future. Notice how neither Morse or Dawkins got a restructure. Both are on the chopping list for 2024 along with White if he does not return to form.

Yeah and if the Jets had taken Allen, Beane and McDermott would be out of a job by now.

Agree. They can now take WR, MLB, OT, and C/G in the first four rounds in any particular order. The starters on the IOL are ok. RT needs to be an open competition with a rookie. And they need to add a WR#2 so Davis van walk next season. Only issue left is DL. Do they hope Oliver can stay healthy or so they trade him and draft another DT??

Wagner was released and is not UFA. He should not count in the formula

Great. He is terrible. One FA loss for the comp pick calculator. Need a couple more.

If Smith-Njigba falls past 20 becuase of his hamstring issues they should try to move up and get him

Excellent post. I've tried to keep an open mind knowing the this is just phase 1 of the offseason and the full plan won't be known until after the draft. I am going to reserve judgment on Beane until then.

I think that makes Buffalo +3 in free agent signings. Pretty sure none of them are worth a 3rd round comp pick that Beane appears to be on the verge of wasting. Hope we start losing some guys or there will be zero compensation for Edmunds.

WR or LB in round 1. OT, C/G, and whichever position that was not drafted in the first round in the next three rounds.

Hey that's fair. I generally agree with you. I think few people would draft OT in the first round knowing they would only be a RT. I think most OTs in the first round are projected to eventually be a LT or a standout G. I guess my contraband point is superstar can be found in the later rounds too. And I don't think position and round should have anything to do with each other. To take the opposite approach and prove my point, QBs are always overvalued and team after team blow first round picks on QBs that probably grade out much lower against other players at other positions. Lastly, I say just get talent. They need youth and cheap contracts in multiple spots to stay competitive.