GunnerBill

On 1) the tape supports him playing better after the bye, it isn't just the fact that (you are not wrong) teams were just charging all over us. As for passer rating - PFR and PFF have slightly different numbers but per PFF he gave up over 100 passer rating 4 times in the first 6 weeks and only once since. His performance was on a steady upswing post the bye then the last two weeks he has been brilliant. On 3) I agree, but I do think there is a legitimate question that people can ask about whether he is overpaid for the skillset he has. That is different than the "he is invisible" or "he has been a slug" type criticism which isn't fair. He is playing well. What they are expecting of him is not necessarily in line with his skillset.

Is worth saying by cap dollars THIS year the Bills are heavily slanted towards offense. Even without Josh it is more on offense than defense. Worryingly we are spending the 18th most in the NFL on receivers this year to get what I suspect is the 32nd best production.

I'm not sure there is anything different about him. I think he is who he is - a darn good but not perfect football coach.

It always does.

Yea agree, that would work.

He definitely does, but as much as the voters would tell you MVP is only ever about how they play that season the reality is it is going to be a bit of a career award for Matt Stafford. He is a well liked, well respected, Superbowl winning vet coming towards the end. Unless the Rams collapse down the stretch he will be the MVP. I think Maye will get a few votes but Stafford is gonna get a big majority of the 50.

In principle like your model, the problem is in reality there are not four top conferences. There are two. The SEC and the BigTen. Eventually they will swallow the others up. The BigTen will essentially become the North & Western Conference and the SEC will swallow up everything in the south east (most of the ACC in particular). But that is going to take some time and in the meantime I don't know what the answer is.

The schedule argument is definitely real. Other than us the only other winning teams they have beaten in that run are the two 7-6 NFC South teams. But you are right that you still have to win them and Bills fans shouldn't be too sniffy about them. They really grew in confidence from beating the Bills in a game we gave away. That's on us. They are well coached, they do play with pretty sound fundamentals, and their young Quarterback has played great and is in the MVP conversation as a 2nd year player. Vrabel built it the right way. The first thing that needed sorting was the trenches. The OL is so much better than it has been basically in any year since they last made the Superbowl. Losing Will Campbell hurts and we will see how that impacts them moving forward. I'm slightly surprised that they are the #1 seed as we stand but I was pretty confident pre-season that they'd be a playoff team.

He broke into his ex girlfriend's house, choked her and punched her. Less than a year ago. While he was a pro in the NFL. Now if he had Antonio Brown like numbers some NFL team might think he is worth a shot. A career 4 catches for 107 yards? No way.

I'm not worried yet. The two fumbles on Sunday - the one on the goalline run is frustrating more than anything but it wasn't like Cook did anything wrong there really. He had the ball well pinned, in the correct arm, a defender just got in there and made a good play. The one on the pass play he was trying to score, a bit careless but he has scored big touchdowns for us in the past when a lot of guys would be down at the 1 or the 2. You take the rough with the smooth.... and actually but for a hold it would have put as down at the 1, because he fumbled oob. There is a bit reversion to the mean on the Bills fumbles as well, most of us said pre-season they are not going to have historic low turnover numbers again.

Did we get an explanation? I can only presume there was some sort of clock issue that the refs wouldn't acknowledge (happens sometimes where it doesn't reset) and so he had to take it to prevent a DOG, but I don't know. 3rd down has been better since McDermott took over playcalling. It was rough Sunday, agreed. Not sure all of that was scheme though. The Bills have to tackle better. It has been the single strongest theme through our entire season - defensively our tackling has sucked.

Unless the Rams collapse Matt Stafford will be MVP.

I have also watched every Chiefs game and while I agree with you on talent being by far the biggest factor I do think there have been games this year where there offensive gameplan has been really poor and disjointed. Their shotgun run game is dreadful and there are time where they really try and force feed it and get themselves behind the sticks; then they throw way too many deep balls which is exactly what teams want them to do week after week. Is that Mahomes going rogue? Maybe. But they need to cut the deep shots at least in half and they need better concepts to work the middle of the field. I think what you are seeing is that "Kelce find space and turn around" route that was their staple for many years was more about two elite players than it was design because now Kelce is not the same guy it has all but gone from the playbook. Mahomes already has a career high in rushing and rushing TDs and is only one shy of his career record in 1st downs rushing with four games remaining. And that is almost all scrambling. Without it the offense would be stuck in neutral way too often. They still have some of the best trick plays in the game and there is still nobody I'd trust more to call me an offensive play on a critical 3rd down with 4 minutes to go in a ball game than Andy Reid... but some of the fundamentals of their offensive scheme have been broken this year. Matt Nagy is 100% gone after the season. He will be the sacrificial lamb for the offense. I don't know for sure what the responsibility split is between he and Reid but I suspect he does most of the gameplanning even if Andy calls a lot of it on gameday and they just haven't been clever enough. I will also say on Andy... two weeks in a row big game management errors. Going for it this week, punting in Dallas, both were the wrong call in the situation. He has always had a bit of that in him going back to his Philly days. On the flipside I give Spags huge credit. I think he is turning water into if not wine then at least a refreshing light ale with that defense. He has coached his ass off this year. I think talk of firing Andy is insane. He has earned the right to go at the time of his choosing. But in the offseason I think they need to go back to the drawing board a bit with that offense. And it starts with finding a way to control the middle of the field again. Because when you don't this offense does not function at the same level.

It isn't true he was bad for 11 games. He has played 12 games this year was very bad for the first 6 but since the bye Benford has been playing well. It is only the last two weeks I think you can say he has got back to the sort of level he was playing at last year where he was one of the best half dozen outside corners in football. But he has played well his last 6 games. I don't know what the reason was for the slow start, and those summising it is linked the head injuries are not being unfair. I agree with you on Rousseau btw. I think he has had a good year. The issue with Rousseau is the expectations a lot of people have of the type of player he will be have never really stacked up with the reality. And then there is a fair question about where his contract slots him in when you look at defensive ends across the league... he is probably paid like a player that he isn't quite in reality too. But in terms of him playing his position, being assignment sound and actually causing more disruption than probably shows up on the stat sheet I think it is his most consistent season as a pro. He has played better this year than when he got 8 sacks last year. Sometimes that is just how it goes.

The Bills are almost certain to be in with 10 wins now. Before the weekend the Bills were at risk of missing out with 10 wins. For the Bills not to make it to 10 now they'd have to lose out meaning losing to the Browns AND the Jets. They are in a position where they could lose to the Pats, Eagles and one of those other 2 and still be in like 95% of the time. The ONLY scenario that I can find that keeps the Bills out with 10 wins is where their one remaining win is vs the NFC Eagles AND they end in a 4 way tie at 10-7 between the Chiefs, Bills, Texans and Colts. That is literally the ONLY 10 win scenario I can find in which the Bills miss out. And that ain't happening. The Colts will be lucky to win another game.