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Shaw66

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  1. I could argue with various points here, but it's generally correct. I'm not saying anything different. I'm not saying Allen is going to be a miracle worker. I'm not saying the line will be all-star or TE will became a strength rather than a weakness. What I'm saying is this team is getting better and will continue to get better, year after year. And I think it's quite simple: right owners, right GM, right coach, right QB. The rest is just blocking and tackling to improve the level of play, year to year, and to improve the level of talent. And talent doesn't mean superstars - it means very good football players committed to the process. That's the plan, and I believe it will work as they planned. I think Allen will be a top 15 QB this season and top 5 within three seasons.
  2. Thanks for clarifying. I've gotten to the point where I don't worry about weaknesses. Are the Bills weak at tight end? With the injury, sure. Do I mind? No. Can't fix everything in a day, and the Bills will keep working at it and fix it. Might they have gone a different direction in free agency and/or the draft regarding tight end? Sure. Do I mind? No. They'll get to it. Their objective is for EVERY position to improve EVERY year, and they aren't going to forget about the tight end. That's why I say they could be better or worse than I expect in the next year or two, but however long it takes they will get better from year to year. In five years they'll have a top 5 quarterback and a top 5 defense. Why am I so sure? For the reasons I gave - the right owners, the right GM, the right coach, the right quarterback. They're all going to grow in their jobs, because that's the objective they've set for themselves. Everything about the franchise is getting better. Someone commented about the quality of the video on BuffaloBIlls.com getting better. Relations with the media are better. Facilities are better. Food services for the team are better. Most importantly, as someone mentioned, team culture is better. They're building an environment where players will want to be a part of. They keep talking about what a privilege it is to play for this fan base. They talk about family. They talk about excellence. They talk about winning the right way. This is going to be a perennial Super Bowl contender, like the Saints and the Chiefs and the Pats. Only the Pats get there year after year, but virtually every year since the hurricane New Orleans has been talked about as a contender. Why? Ownership, coach, quarterback, fan base. And I don't think anyone is leaving. The Pegulas are in for the long haul. They'll pay Beane whatever it takes to keep him, and they'll pay McDermott too. And Beane will pay Allen whatever it takes to keep him. Because of the culture they're building, I think they ALL will stay for less than they might be able to demand, because they all will understand that that isn't consistent with the process - they want the entire team to get better continuously, and part of that is having money to spend on other players. That's why Brady takes only what he takes. They all will see that even at reduced pay, they all will retire as very rich men, richer than they ever need. Allen will get paid more than Beane and McDermott, but Beane and McDermott will make millions a year for 20 years. (Think about it: Allen knows today that five years from now he's getting $30 million a year, and he'll be able to do that for 10 years. After taxes and a VERY comfortable lifestyle, he'll have $100 million saved. McDermott knows that he's going to be making $10 million a year for 20 years; Beane something similar. They are all going to know that they are part of the best franchise, with best record and with the best owners; they aren't going to care about squeezing the last dollar out of contract negotiations.) Believe it. It's all sitting there before our eyes, right now.
  3. One of the greats, in every way. Every man wanted his son to be like Bart Starr. A winner and a gentleman. Our thoughts are with you and all Packer fans.
  4. Thanks, but your post completely 9gnores what I said. The NFL is not set up for dynasty runs. The Patriots prove up wromg, and Andy Reid is evidence that it's possible for others to do it. He hasn't gotten over the too, but his teams are almost always good. McDermott learned from Reid. 1. When Belichick was McDermott's age, no one was saying B I ll is the greatest coach of all time. They were running him out of Cleveland. 2. As I said, I think Allen will be great. And as I said, he and McD are a perfect match. Of course today they don't look like they can compete with Brady and Belichick. Give 'em ten years. 3. Patriots beat EVERYONE. They have a BETTER RECORD against the rest of the league than they have against the AFC east. They would be spotted 6 wins in almost any division. 4. Allen may very well be willing to be paid below the market. You don't know that yet. And the Patriots would still win if they paid Brady $30 million. All you've said is that the Bills today are not the Patriots. I didn't say they were. I said they are building to geeatness, and you gave no reason why they can't. The whole point of the process is to identify areas of weakness and improve them. It applies to McDermott too. His on field performance is evaluated like everything else, and a process is put in place to improve it if necessary. If you ask McDermott, he will tell you he will be a much better head coach, in all aspects of his job, five yeare from now, because he intends to study, evaluate and improve all aspects.
  5. I think you can bet on Allen. I just think he has all the parts. He wants it. He studies. He's a great athlete. And he has a coach who is perfect for him. I think NFL will be talking about him this season, and I think he'll be a premier QB within five years. Remember, it's continuous improvement. His line will get better and his receivers will get better. He'll get better. It's going to be awesome.
  6. I think he was the best athlete on the team until Tyrod showed up. Some people say Tyrod is the best athlete they've ever seen. Kyle was a great football player. Did you see the video of McDermott introducing Kyle when he announced his retirement to the team? McDermott said the first time he ever saw Kyle was at the Pro Bowl when McDermott was one of the coaches. He said Kyle stood out as an athlete and a worker. He said it meant a lot to him to get a chance to coach Kyle in Buffalo. High praise.
  7. Yes, McCoy is a bit of a feast or famine runner. He has a lot of runs that go for no gain. He needs a hole to work with. He had none last year. Gore wouldn't have done much with the Bills last season. His style is similar to Ivory's, and Ivory could get nothing last season, either.
  8. He wasn't the same runner after injuries, whether the surgery was necessary or not. I don't know where you get these stats, but LeVeon Bell must lead the league in time behind the line scrimmage. He just waits and waits. So time behind the line of scrimmage isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are styles and there are styles. \ I think the Bills have two smart, savvy runners with different styles, two guys who want to win. And two decent young backups. I like it.
  9. The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 “The Hopeless Optimist” I know I’m probably heading for a big crash, but I can’t help it: I think the golden age of the Buffalo Bills is upon us. I think we are about to witness the greatest run of excellence in the history of the franchise, and one of the greatest of all time in the NFL. Maybe it’s just because I’ve lived a long life and been fortunate to have had a lot of good things happen around me. About the only good thing that hasn’t happened is true greatness for my football team. I was there for the AFL championships and the Super Bowls. Now it’s time to go all the way. Whatever the reason, I can’t talk myself out of believing the Bills are about to take off. It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that. It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming. “WHAT??!!! You can’t be serious,” readers scream. I’m serious. I’m serious for the combination of several reasons. 1. The Process I keep listening to McDermott and Beane, learning about what they are doing. If I understand it, I think it will work to build a team that is a powerhouse for many seasons. It’s about continuous improvement, getting better at your job. McDermott says it over and over. Get better every day. That’s why they want rookies. They want the benefit of a football player for ten years, getting better year after after year. Part of the genius of that system is that new guys get pulled up to level of the rest of the team pretty quickly. When the team is playing at a good level, rookies come in and learn quickly to play at the good level. When the team is great, rookies come in and learn to play at the great level. McDermott saw Andy Reid do it, and he’s watched Bill Belichick do it. Everyone is challenged to get better, game after game, season after season. Players are challenged. Coaches are challenged, too. McDermott is expected to improve. Daboll is expected to improve. Frazier. Everyone. If you aren’t working to improve, you aren’t part of the process. No player is guaranteed a job, and every player knows that he will sit or worse as soon as someone comes along who does it better. And the players are happy with that, because they understand they are part of a bigger process. If they’ve worked hard and made the team better, they will share in the team’s future success, because they were part of building the platform from which it all took off. I guarantee that when McDermott wins a Super Bowl in Buffalo, Kyle Williams will know that he owns a part of that trophy. Continuous improvement. 2. The Coach My apologies to the lifelong atheists in the crowd, but there’s no way to describe McDermott except in religious terms. He’s organizing a cult, with avid followers who get high on the Word. It’s his personal version of The 300, with everyone doing his job, doing anything, for the benefit of everyone else, with a little of Andy of Mayberry wholesome goodness thrown it. He practices what he preaches. He’s about doing the right thing all the time, preparing, learning, communicating. He lives in a world where everyone earns what he gets, and everyone understands why they sometimes don’t get what they tried to earn. He expects a Lombardi Trophy and nothing less, and he understands that if he doesn’t get it, someone else better will get the job. And he’s okay with that. He imposes that world on his players, and he expects them to be okay with it, so he must be okay with it, too. He cares about everyone in his organization, and he wants everyone in the organization to care, too. Was there an element of commercialism in how McDermott and the Bills adopted PanchoBilla in his final weeks? Sure. But there was genuine caring and concern, too, and there was genuine grief at the end. Is McDermott perfect? No. Does he make mistakes? Plenty. But it’s about continuous improvement, learning and getting better very day. He WILL get better, because he won’t accept less from himself. And don’t forget, he took his first head coaching job at about the same age as Bill Belichick, and Belichick made mistakes for years before he hit his stride. McDermott is growing into greatness. McDermott does it right, and by doing it right, those around him do it right, too. 3. The GM I just love Beane. I love his calculating approach to his job. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move on. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move one. No wasted motion. Beane’s the Chief Operating Officer of the cult. His primary job is to keep a fresh supply of qualified devotees on hand for them to study at the feet of the master. He believes in the process, and he believes in McDermott. He believes that if he continues to deliver the right players, McDermott will deliver the Lombardi. Beane’s fearless. He’s willing to make a decision and accept the consequences. He doesn’t fret over the mistakes; he just moves on to the next decision. He’s willing to make the bold move. 4. The QB It’s completely obvious that Beane and McDermott are selecting players the way they said they would: they want players who are intense and non-stop competitors, players what always want to get better, players who are driven to work at their craft every day. They want disciples. Others need not apply. The latest example is Jerry Hughes, who has evolved from an occasionally flashy, occasionally frustrating athlete to superior all-around football player and leader. It didn’t seem possible three years ago. Hughes’s contract extension says two things – that he’s matured into the kind of player and leader that McDermott wants to win with, and that Hughes can see that the Bills are the kind of organization that make him a better and more successful player. Hughes wants to be part of the success that McDermott and Beane are building; he is a disciple. And he isn’t the only one. What does that have to do with the quarterback? Just this: the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and therefore the quarterback has to be the lead disciple. In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy. He loves to compete. He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews. He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago. He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered. He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude. Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady. McDermott got his in Allen. And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm. I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor. A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven. 5. The Owners How perfect is it that leading this whole effort is a pair of owners who are true believers in the process? They’ve lived the process, they’ve reaped the financial and personal benefits of doing it right, and now they’ve found a coach and a GM who preach the process. They’re believers in continuity. They know being great takes time, because it took them time, and they’re willing to give Beane and McDermott time to reach the goal. They’re the big donors in the cult. When the GM says he needs new facilities to attract and train the kind of disciples who will win football games, the owners say yes. When McDermott says he needs another coach, they back him. And they’re good people, just like McDermott and Beane and Kyle and Jerry and Josh. It’s like they’re all from Mayberry. The NFL is a club, and the club members already are proud to have colleagues like Kim and Terry. Colleagues who can be counted on to have one eye on the bottom line and the other on their moral compass. Bills fans can be proud, too. There it is. Something approaching the perfect combination of ownership, leadership and players committed to a process that will work. We’ve waited a long time for this. It’s going to be special. Count me in the cult. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.
  10. Thanks. I had forgotten about QBASE. I never liked QBASE. Outsiders is good at what it set out to do: crunch the available raw data and film evaluations of whether any particular player did what he was supposed to do on any particular down and distance and come up with a ranking of how effective the player is in comparison to other players at the same position. They also do it for teams, offenses, defenses. In my opinion, it works. But it always was intended to be backward looking, not forward looking. They don't have any tools that have been demonstrated to project future performance, and that's what QBASE does. Schatz isn't a football guy; he succeeded by being a number cruncher. He's entitled to his opinion, but it's only an opinion, like everyone else's opinion. I suspect much of his opinion is driven by Allen's DYAR; if so, I think he's letting past performance become his determinant of potential, and that doesn't make sense for a rookie qb.
  11. I find all of this interesting, but I think it misses the fundamental point. The fundamental point is that Allen's completion percentage has to go up. One deep or two, man or zone, first half or last half of the season, he wasn't completing enough of his passes. I have to think he's going to see a lot more cover 2 this year until he shows he can beat it by completing a lot of passes, which means a lot of short passes. Why cover 2? Two reasons: He has the arm to beat teams deep and has shown he can do it, so with Foster and Brown on the field often, defenses will want to avoid the problem of letting one of them go one on one deep. Also, cover 2 is more of a zone concept and it lets the defenders face the quarterback, which is necessary to try to stop Allen from killing them with scrambles. By taking away the deep ball, defenses will force the Bills to run effectively and complete short passes, neither of which they did very well last season. If Beane improved the offensive line, the run game should be revived. Where the real change is necessary is Allen has to find, and be willing to throw accurately to, his receivers in short, high-percentage routes and his backs out of the backfield. In other words, defenses will try to neutralize Allen's deep-ball abilities, and the Bills will have to demonstrate that they can go on the methodical, 10-15 play touchdown drive. When they start doing that consistently (which means when Allen starts completing 60+% of his passes), the defenses will be forced to go 1 high to stop the run and short passes, and that's when the full potential of the offense will come into play. Assuming the line will be okay this season, it's all on Allen playing like a pro QB instead of a college bomber.
  12. Obviously anything can happen, like injuries, etc., but putting that aside, I think the Bills are definitely better than 6.5 wins. I believe this for three reasons. 1. In a sense all that matters is your Qb, and I think Allen is a star in the making. He has the physical tools, he has the leadership skills, he has the smarts and he really wants it. He will do everything he can every day to get better. I think by the middle of the season the national media will be all over him, and it won't be because of his running. I expect him to be a top 15 qb, minimum. 2. McD will always have a good defense. They were pretty good last season, and Edmunds didn't know what he was doing. Even if he isn't an all star, his improvement alone is going to make a big difference. If the optimists about Oliver around here are right, he and Edmunds are going to make the Bills a great defense. 3. I've come to understand the process. OT makes sense and it will work because Beane is getting only guys who are willing to commit to it. The Bills are going to get better every season for about the next five seasons. 2019 is the start. 2020 they will be really good. And by the way, I think the first four guys they drafted all will be significant contributors by the end of November.
  13. The question was did they get worse? You say McCoy had his worst year ever, and you dont say you expect him to have an even worse year this year. So they're not worse thos year than they were last year so far as McCoy is concerned. Gore was better than Ivory last year (and every other year) and should be this year. And the Bills were bad at #3 running back last year, so Singleyary just has to be breathing to be equal to that. And Yeldon. You actually think that group is worse tha. Last year? Its absolutely clear on paper the Bills are not worse at running back than last year. It's impossible to answer the question on actuality until they play, so on paper is all we can talk about.
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