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Shaw66

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  1. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    Yes in one sense it's fair for all of us to make our own assessments. I just don't think anyone's assessment here of a DT is very valuable. None of us knows what Star was supposed to do any particular play, so none of us really can evaluate how well he did it. Kyle laughed at the notion that amateurs can evaluate film and rate players.
  2. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    No, a teammate isn't going to say that. But you need to understand that the players think differently about the money than we do. The players understand that how much a guy gets paid doesn't correspond exactly with how much he is worth. They know that some guys get lucky, hitting the market at the right time, finding a team with a particular need at a particular time. They don't mope around the practice field all day because they think someone is getting paid too much. They're happy for their teammates who hit the free agency jackpot, and they understand that there aren't many of those guys. The only players who really worry that some guy is getting more than they are are the players McBeane don't want on their team.
  3. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    No, Alexander is not going to be publicly critical of Star, but he seems to have gone out of his way to say good things about him. I commented before about the idea of "over paid by a couple million." There always are guys on your roster who are getting paid more than their value, and there are guys who are underpaid. There is not way to measure exactly how important a player is to the team, and there is no way to translate into dollars to know exactly how much to pay him. So you always have some overpaid and some underpaid. It would be nice if the entire roster were underpaid, but that isn't reality. As long as you don't have too many guys being overpaid by too much, it doesn't matter if a guy is overpaid. What matters is whether he's doing the job you want him to do. All indications are that Star is doing what the Bills want him to do, the Bills aren't in cap trouble because of his contract, so it doesn't make sense to get excited about it. I don't understand those stats about performance over replacement, but that kind of analysis is what's necessary if you want to know whether the Bills made a mistake or not. That is, how much would it have cost to get someone better, or how much could the Bills have saved by getting someone worse and how much worse would he have been. It's almost a certainty that the right player at exactly the right price was not available in free agency last year.
  4. I don't think many would argue with what you say. However, the real point of the original post is that there is a continuing and popular narrative about Allen since before the draft, and that is that Allen is not an accurate thrower. Putting aside how you might define accuracy and what you might think is the best evidence of accuracy, the fact is that what is said about regularly about Allen and not said about the other rookies is that Allen must work on his accuracy. What the OP's analysis shows (doesn't exactly prove, since we can argue about methodology, what's important, etc.) is that a very good argument can be made that Allen is not particularly inaccurate when compared to the other rookies. He wasn't seeking to prove that Allen is very accurate or even just accurate enough. What he has shown, pretty effectively, I think, is that if people think Allen is inaccurate, then those people should be saying the same thing about each of the other rookies. But no one is complaining about the accuracy of the other rookie QBs. The point is that either (1) all of the rookies have an accuracy problem and all of their coaches and fans should be concerned or (2) Allen's accuracy problem is largely a myth, generated by the talking heads running up to the draft and, as often happens, continues despite actual performance. People look at the completion percentage and conclude that what they heard about Allen's accuracy must be true. I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem. I didn't see a guy regularly missing receivers, and I didn't see a guy regularly hurting the receiver's chances to make runs after the catch. I certainly didn't see receivers turning inaccurate throws into receptions with spectacular catches. I saw a guy who makes an occasional bad throw and a guy who could improve his precision on some throws, but not a guy who has a problem that should keep him from succeeding in the NFL. And I think the data set forth in the OP kind of confirms that. Nobody's howling "accuracy" about any of the other rookies, and Allen did about the same things those guys did.
  5. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    I have no idea whether the Bill's think the signing was good, but I'm virtually certain that their evaluation of him has very little to do with your stats. The process is completely team oriented. Star has a job to do, in the locker room, in practice and in games. You and I have practically no idea what that job is. He is evaluated every day on how well he is doing his job. Alexander knows what Star's job is. He says Star is doing his job. I'd say it's a good bet that Alexander's view is more accurate than yours.
  6. Shaw66

    Lorenzo is back

    I love it. He's a solid player, and I'd guess he had real market value. What I really like is that it says that a guy who could go elsewhere to chase a title, for example, likes what he sees happening in Buffalo. Says a lot about McBeane. I hope he has a great season and then comes back for one more.
  7. Not that the Bills have world beaters as receivers, but I think often the separation problem has a different cause - the run game. The play fake simply isn't too credible when you pretty much can't run the ball. A lot of what people think of as good separation is caused simply because a good running game forces defenses to put 7-8 in the box to stop it. When that happens, defenders tend to play off the ball more, and receivers get better separation. With a lousy running game, teams can afford to keep a safety or two back, which allows the corners to play up. Like you, I saw a lot excellent throws and not many real head scratchers. When the team gets better around him, his numbers will be fine.
  8. Well, we agree in theory here, but I tend to agree with those who would RANK the appropriate skills sets (yours is a pretty good list, certainly good enough for argument's sake). Most people would say accuracy is most important. So being bottom 10 in accuracy could be fatal or certainly more difficult to overcome than some other low grade. Maybe put another way, the minimum performance for accuracy must be something like top 15 in the league. I mean, you'd better be accurate. I just don't agree that Allen's accuracy is all that bad.
  9. Shaw66

    Would Cordy Glenn be an option in FA?

    If Glenn were a promising guy in the process, they would have kept him. I doubt they'll want him back.
  10. Shaw66

    Bills hire Bobby Johnson as offensive line coach

    I agree. Still, sometimes it's fun to talk about it as though we did. Putting together a couple of pieces, I think this guy got hired because (1) the word around the league was that he was really the guy who built that line this season, not the o line coach and (2) the Bills know he's big into the process. I don't know 1 for a fact - it's just a hunch, but the coaches know each other and talk, they know who's really good and who isn't. The word gets around, and you see differences in line play where he's been, stuff like that. So although it may be mystifying to us why'd the Bills did this, around the league people know this guy is a comer. Just a hunch, but it wouldn't surprise me. As to 2, after Luck's playoff win this season, he said practice won't be any different this week than in previous weeks - come in, do our work. Just stick with the process. The process. That means Reich is using a system similar to McDermott's, and the Bills could see that this guy a "process" guy. That's a big character point for people in the organization.
  11. Hey, guys, I know I'm jumping late, but I think this is an interesting point, and I have a slightly different take. I believe the Bills admitted later in the season that they were working on Allen to check down more often, despite the fact that Allen was hitting on a lot downfield. The Bills' philosophy is to make every play a positive play, every play. And the way to do that is to take the high percentage pass. We saw Allen do it a few times late in the season. If I'm right about that, then the Bills fully expect that when Allen checks down as much as they want, his completion percentage will go up and his yards per catch will go down. In other words, I think the Bills will trade some yards on big plays for success on more plays. That means a lot of the individual stats are less important than we think. In other words, piling up a lot of yards isn't the most important thing.
  12. Hey, Transplant, thanks for doing this. It's really a great piece of work. People probably have challenged it one basis or another, and I'm sure there is some fine tuning that could be done to make everything more, uh, accurate. But I would be very surprised if what you've done is far off the mark. A couple of comments. Your very first point is excellent. Accuracy in the NFL is very much pass/fail - either you're accurate enough or you aren't, you make the grade or you don't. Are some people more accurate that others? Sure, but that isn't the point. The point is are you good enough for the NFL, and is you OVERALL package really good. Put another way, you can grade all kinds of QB skillsets - accuracy, ball handling, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence, scrambling - all kinds of stuff. Every successful QB is better in some categories than in others, but the fact that they are weaker in some category doesn't mean they're bad quarterbacks. Brady is a pretty bad scrambler, but no one is saying he can't play QB in the NFL. What IS necessary, as you say, is that you have to meet the minimum in every category. Beyond that, you need to be really good in enough categories so that the total package is really good, even if one category is weak. None of that means you don't work to improve weaknesses; it just means that being weak in an area is somehow fatal. Second, your analysis confirms what I saw. Sure, Allen threw some inaccurate passes and sure, he threw some ugly interceptions. What I saw was a guy who threw most balls easily within the receiver's catch radius and a guy who threw some really accurate balls. I'm sure, for example, that someone on this forum must have asked all the accuracy critics what they thought of Allen's TD throw in the left flat. That's a throw the announcers would absolutely rave about if Brady or Brees threw it. EJ could have thrown that ball anywhere, but you can count on Allen to make that throw pretty regularly. I watched KC this weekend for some of the game. While I was watching, Mahomes threw three or four pretty ugly balls to open receivers. It happens. What I expect is going to happen is that Allen's stats are going to make a big jump next season. It'll be clear in the stats. His completion percentage, his passer rating both will go up a lot. People are going to be saying that Allen worked really hard in the off-season to improve his accuracy. I don't think any of that will be true. His numbers are going to go up because (1) he has a full off-season to study and practice, (2) he gets virtually ALL the first-team reps starting with off-season workouts, (3) he has better receivers, (4) he has a better offensive line and (5) he has a year's experience in the league. In other words, what I expect is going to happen is that we, the serious fans, will see more or less the same QB in 2019 as in 2018. Yeah, he'll make a few passes here and there that he missed as a rookie. And yes, he'll be better at the line of scrimmage because of the experience he now has. But mostly he's going to be better because he has a better team around him, both on offense and on defense. It's what McDermott calls "complementary football." As each guy at each position improves, it also improves the guys around him. And as his team (offense, defense or special teams) gets better because he improved, the other teams get better, too. The attitude is to always be driven by the notion that "if I get better, the whole team gets better and that's what I want."
  13. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    As for the "scarcity" of snaps, the defense is designed to play eight d-linemen. I think the most you can expect Star to play is maybe 60% of the snaps, so 50% is terribly troubling to me. He was at 53 and 65% his last two years at Carolina, and in the 45% range the two seasons before that. So he may be down a bit, but he's essentially being used the way he always was used. I can't get excited about any of this.
  14. Shaw66

    Startling Star statistic

    I think all of us amateur GMs don't know what we're talking about. First, the Lorenzo Alexander statements are telling. He's a one seven or eight guys IN THE WORLD whose ability to do his job depends on what Star does, and if he says Star is doing his job, that's enought for me. Second, NFL salaries ARE not a measure of a guy's worth in every case. Look at the salary dispersion of ALL teams - there are 2 or 3 or 4 guys over $10 million a year, and about 45 at or about $2 million or less. Often the lucky guys, like Star, hit the market at just the right time and get a really nice contract. In terms of actual value to the team, he isn't worth three times as much as some guy making $1.5, but that's just the nature of NFL salaries. Put another way, there is no way to determine the relative value of each player on the team compared to each other player. Even if you could determine those values, there is no way that every player's compensation could be set at exactly the correct amount compared to every other player. You can't even get close. Every team has guys who are getting paid a few million more than they are "worth" and some guys who are getting paid a few million less than they are "worth." The players understand this. They treat their wealthy teammates as guys who hit Lotto, but most do not walk around complaining that those guys are being overpaid. Now, if you're overpaying 10 guys (or worse, is you have a lot of guys not even on the team you're still paying in dead cap space), it's a problem. But if all you have is a few, it just doesn't matter. Every team has a few. If Star is doing his job, no one in the organization is concerned about his paycheck, and the fans shouldn't be, either.
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