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BullBuchanan

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  1. That's not the argument I'm making and you know it. It's obvious they've invested heavily in defense in the draft. The difference is they've had more success with their investments on offense. They haven't been able to find those difference makers on defense. Von was supposed to be that guy. Douglas looks like that guy, and hopefully Milano can play a game in January sometime, but that's still not enough. Don't move the goalposts.
  2. I don't understand how you can make this argument based on past results. Trying to outscore KC when your defense lets them score at every critical juncture results in a best case scenario of 13 seconds. We've already tried the strategy you're recommending and it's repeatedly failed. We went out and got Diggs, a legit Top 5 receiver. We went out and got Kincaid, a top 2 TE in his class. We got a pass catching home run hitter in James cook. We've made numerous investments in the draft and FA in skill position players to play various roles all with the aim of having a juggernaut offense and we've built one. Yet, the results are, at best, the same as they were before. One could even argue we've regressed the last 2 seasons. You can add prime Jerry Rice to this stable and Josh still isn't beating Mahomes & Kelce. They are the problem, not KC's defense. Diggs was open for the first down against KC. Shakir was open for the touchdown. Josh didn't get it done. Having one more WR open on that play doesn't yield a completion. You want to make the argument that Dawkins let us down? Well they just signed him to an extension, so that isn't changing. You've only got two options. Either Josh makes every single critical pass you need him to make(something he has not shown to be common), or you get players on defense that can stop Mahomes from making every critical pass that he has proven he will make. For me it's an easy decision. 33 points a game is not acceptable to me, and it's the reason we're losing imo.
  3. Building a Super Bowl Champion by building a roster designed a shootout offense hasn't really been very successful. New England's best offensive season, their perfect season ended in disappointment, as did Denver's under Manning. The Saints' entire philosophy under Sean Payton was outscore the other team and it worked once when it was new. It hasn't worked for the Dolphins. It hasn't worked for us when we've tried it in the past either. You need to get elite play from every facet of the game. KC's dynasty runs through Mahomes, but they get big time plays from their defense when it matters. We get strong aggregate performances during the regular season and then our guys disappear when the lights shine brightest. We need dominating players to turn the tide of the game, especially with a mediocre coaching staff like McDermott and his boys. We need guys like Milano, Miller, Oliver, Douglas and guys who aren't on the roster to be playing the best football of their lives in February if we want any chance. In my mind, the key there is the guys we're missing. Someone in the mold of a Ed Reed, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Micah Parsons that can be used in multiple different ways gives you more chances where a team can make just one play that wins the game for you. Hell, I'd take Minkah Fitzpatrick.
  4. Why would Diggs not get 160 again? He was 6th in the league in targets. Since joining Buffalo he has had: 160 154 164 166 How can you possible imagine that he'll get a 20% target reduction when he's still one of the best receivers in the game and we do not have anyone near his caliber to take them? Additionally, you're projecting Samuel to a 42% reduction in targets based off his standard and also anticipating he get s acareer high in carries with 55 when his best season was 41, 4 seasons ago when he was 23 years old. Last year he had 7 carries. 4 of his 7 seasons he's had 8 or less rushing attempts. Maybe we use him in that capacity more towards the higher end, but setting a career high 30% over his best in attempts? That requires a massive leap of faith that I just can't make. To that end I see no reason that Diggs will lose a massive amount of his targets and I don't see any reason why samuel either. I'm going to assume they both get their recent averages of 160 and 90 respectively. I'll use your assumption of 160 targets and leave everyone else estimate alone. That leaves 40 targets for our rookie WR which is on par with what Shakir had last season. I think that's more than generous given the players currently on the roster. Maybe they'll even get 45.
  5. They just signed Curtis Samuel to be our #2. They aren't paying him 7M/15 guaranteed to be our #4. It's wild to me that so many folks advocate takings WRs high and then use examples of WRs that were drafted in later rounds as examples of how much production they can have. Tank Dell, taken in the 3rd Nacua, drafted in the 5th WRs are a crap shoot. in 2023 they mostly had decent production, but you're taking 45-60ish receptions. On this team that would put them 3rd-5th depending on how much target share they get and how much target share our own growing stars like Kincaid, Shakir and Cook utilize. Teams like Baltimore and Minnesota (Post Jefferson injury) had pretty much bare cupboards so it makes sense that a rookie who performed well would get as many targets as they could handle. In Seattle, they had a gap at #3 and Smith-Njigba (1.20) filled it with 63 receptions on 93 targets In LAC, Quentin Johnson went one pick later (1.21) but only mustered 38/67 Zay Flowers (1.22) went 77/108 as the only receiving threat on the team much of the season Jordan Addision (1.23), Jayden Reed(2.19), Rashee Rice(2.24), Tank Dell (3.06), Josh Downs (3.16) all provided similar value to Flowers. Nacua (5.42) was best in class. Most of the rest of the class fared far worse. For context, the Bills had: Diggs: 107/160 Kincaid: 73/91 Davis: 45/81 Cook: 44/54 Shakir: 39/45 Samuel went 62/91 last year. Expect him to do more with a similar or less target share than Davis had. Expect Shakir to get at least 20, if not more targets) Who are you taking targets from to feed to a rookie? The argument has to be that you're taking them from Samuel, but that argument doesn't make any sense at all given what they just ponied up to go get him in the first place. More realistically I expect a rookie to best case scenario see 40-50 targets int his offense by taking a few from Diggs and getting more kicks at the can due to increased offensive efficiency. Kincaid got 80 because there were 80 there to be had. Once Knox went down, he stepped into a full time starting role and made the most of the opportunity. For a rookie WR drafted this year, you'd have to have a major injury to Diggs or Samuel imo, and even then, I'd expect Shakir to see most of the benefit.
  6. I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost. Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.
  7. Not really. Davis is a one-trick pony that can only effectively run deep. He may be better at that one trick, but I don't think it will lead to more production. Samuel runs far more routes than Gabe does at a high level, and I see him being more productive in this offense from game to game with a lower ceiling in any given game. Shakir on the other hand gives us that high ceiling. He's an explosive player that could definitely have monster games.
  8. Ok. So you do that so now your WR5 is locked up, but who are you starting at Free Safety? The 4th round rookie you drafted instead of prioritizing your needs? Who is your first CB in when Benford or Douglas get a breather or get banged up? Cam Lewis? I just don't see it as a high priority need at all. You can get productive WRs on the street.
  9. Maybe maybe not. I don't see any of those things you listed as dire. I guess we'll see what Beane thinks. BTW Diggs is 30 and Samuel is 27, and Shakir has 2 years on his deal, not one. Where was he drafted?
  10. Like I said, It wouldn't shock me to see them get on in round 3/4, which would align with them NOT passing on WR drafts and taking advantage of the depth rather than the top end talent. But given that I think they'll be drafting one late, I think the replacement is likely to be an eventual WR2/WR3 instead of a future WR1. I don't see Samuel as an elite player, but he's guaranteed 2 years of salary, and at $7M per, the Bills likely envision him being a significant part of their offense. Diggs has a $22M dead cap hit if we move on from him after this year, so again, he's a part of our offense through next season, and Shakir is cost controlled and on the rise. Furthermore, rookie WRs, even future great ones, rarely make significant impacts. For all of those reasons, I think it unlikely that Beane views WRs as a top priority going into the draft. We have massive gaps at S, OL, CB that need to be addressed and evena hole at DE and I wouldn't be surprised to see all of them picked in the draft ahead of 2024's WR4/WR5
  11. I would be rather shocked to see us get a WR in round 1 at this point for multiple reasons. I even think round 2 is a stretch given our needs. Samuel is basically guaranteed to be here in 2025, as are Diggs and Shakir. I would expect any rookie drafted to be brought along slowly. Maybe we use our 4th to trade up for a WR or maybe we get a couple of late round prospects and see if one of them can become the next Shakir or Gabe Davis. More likley that they'll draft Diggs replacement next year when they should have less holes to fill and it makes more financial sense.
  12. Working 11 years at one shop doesn't help. Gotta move around to get paid.
  13. Solid pickup. It surpasses what i thought was possible in terms of talent given the money we had and the market. The money is a little rich for a guy who's perennially been called a breakout candidate that never did, but I guess it's the going rate for a warm body with a history of production. It's less than what he made with Washington, so that's interesting. With Hollywood brown going to KC fr 1/$11M, I guess Beane was looking at a different kind of market. $15M guaranteed means he's definitely here for 2 years, and in an ideal world, he's your #4 by the start of next season, making the $7M a lot. I still have my hopes pinned on Shakir becoming our top weapon going forward. He was an absolute beast that was under utilized last year. This does give us some buffer to not have to take a WR early and given our holes on defense, we might have to wait until after the first two picks to get more weapons.
  14. and he would cost about 1/3 of what Davis just got. If you could have Davis for Chark money, he'd still be here.
  15. DJ Chark might be a better player and fit than any of the names highlighted.
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