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About mjt328

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  1. I fully anticipate at least two, and maybe even three QBs going in the Top 10. Either the teams already in those spots (Arizona, Oakland, NY Giants) will take them, or there will be trade-ups (Denver, Miami, Washington). QB is too important of a position and GMs/coaches get fired too quickly to waste away full seasons banking on mediocre veterans. I think teams are trying somewhat to hide their interest in the QBs, because they are fearing another team trading ahead. Either way, I anticipate the Bills being in pretty good position tomorrow evening. Either someone really good will fall to #9 they can't pass up, or they will be presented with a strong offer to move down a handful of slots and pickup another Day 2 pick.
  2. Jonah Williams would be a good draft pick at #9... as long as this staff sees him as a franchise Left Tackle. I think it would also signal the end of Dion Dawkins on this football team. If we draft Williams, don't be surprised if Dawkins is packaged in a trade shortly after. Don't get me wrong. I'm a big believer in drafting BPA. I'm just hoping that BPA matches up with our current needs a little better.
  3. Lots of injuries on the D-Line front. It could make for some really big steals at the back-end of the 1st Round/top of the 2nd. Jeffery Simmons was probably a Top 5 pick before the ACL injury. Montez Sweat was a Top 10 lock. Now he's got a heart condition. Jerry Tillery was an early 1st Rounder, then needed shoulder surgery. Until this, Rashan Gary was generally considered a Top 10 pick as well.
  4. Trade down from #9 to #16 and target Christian Wilkins or TJ Hockinson. Trade up from #40 and target Jerry Tillery/Jeffery Simmons or Noah Fant.
  5. If they are worried about "secrecy" - they are worried about someone trading ahead of them and taking their target player. That would almost certainly be a QB.
  6. Linebacker is a position where the starters are rarely subbed out (unlike the D-Line). Barring injury, the starting LBs will play 90% or more of the defensive snaps. That's why backup LBs are primarily judged by their special team skills, as opposed to how well they can slide into the starting lineup. Since the league is very pass-heavy, defenses also spend around half of their time (sometimes more) in Nickel. Our primary guys in Nickel are Milano and Edmunds, while Alexander comes off the field or becomes a pass rushing specialist in this formation. Milano's injury is not expected to be a long-term issue. And Edmunds was drafted to be a key leader on this defense for the next decade. I'm certainly not against drafting another LB in the mid-rounds for depth. But it's not a position we desperately need. It's a luxury. If we use a high pick one, he will play less than 25 percent of snaps his rookie season, and will basically be fighting for reps against Milano/Edmunds/D-Line going forward.
  7. This regime has been very stingy at leaking information. I doubt anyone outside the front office's inner circle knows more than 2-3 weeks ago. I'm a believer that actions speak louder than words. And what I've been seeing from One Bills Drive makes me doubt OL or WR at #9. When free agency started last month, Brandon Beane already knew what this draft class looked like. He and the scouts had been studying it for over 12 months. He knew which positions were deep. He knew which positions were strong. He knew which positions were weak. And yes, he already had a pretty good idea which 4-5 guys may be BPA at the #9 slot. With that in mind, he signed a whopping SIX offensive linemen - any of whom could end up in the starting lineup. He signed FOUR wide receivers, including two who are expected to get significant offensive snaps. He signed TWO potential starting corners to play opposite Tre White. At the same time, he made absolutely no effort to address the 3-Tech position despite losing Kyle Williams to retirement. Although he showed clear interest in upgrading the pass rush (specifically Ezekiel Ansah), he never actually signed anyone. And after releasing Charles Clay, neither of his tight end signings can be considered dependable starters. All signs point to us targeting a DT, TE and Edge rusher in the early rounds.
  8. But what do we need with another $6.4 million in cap space for this year? We currently have over $30 million left. And once the draft is over, the roster is pretty much full. At this point, Yeldon didn't have much choice. He obviously wasn't a priority free agent. He wasn't going to get a starting job from anyone. And in less than a week, the league will be overloaded with dozens of shiny-new rookie RBs. If he waited too long, he may have been without a job until August or September. Just two years ago, Shady was still one of the league's best RBs. Maybe he lost a step. But I don't know how anyone could make that assessment, considering how bad our blocking was. We don't need another Day 3 pick. We don't need more cap space. It makes more sense to keep him and cross our fingers that 2018 was an anomaly, due to our poor O-Line.
  9. It's mid-April. Nobody was signing TJ Yeldon as anything more than a backup. The staff has made it pretty clear, both in the way they talk about Shady and with their actions regarding the roster. They believe the O-Line was the problem last year, and he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Besides, Shady's trade value is virtually nothing at this point. We would be lucky to fetch a 4th-5th Rounder. It would be better to gamble on him rebounding, and then addressing the RB position next year.
  10. It will be interesting to see the numbers on this contract. That will tell us a better idea if Yeldon is a roster lock for Week 1, or if he will be fighting for a position. I previously figured RB was going to be a Round 3-5 priority. But now they may not draft one at all. It's been said many times already, but the Bills are quickly running out of spots in the lineup. Unless Beane is planning to trade away some veteran players in the coming months, a heavy chunk of the players we draft are going to be buried on the depth chart or sent to the practice squad. I would be shocked if Beane doesn't try packaging some of those Day 3 picks to climb up the draft board. All ten guys are not making this roster.
  11. I've listened to numerous GMs over the years. All have a similar system. Prospects are not ranked from 1-500. They are generally divided and ranked by position, and then divided into TIERS. So when the Bills pick at #9, they may have 5-6 guys at various positions in the SAME tier, all considered worthy of being selected in that spot. They may have Jonah Williams (OT), DK Metcalf (WR), TJ Hockinson (TE), Ed Oliver (DT), Rashan Gary (DE) and Devon White (LB) all ranked within the same tier. They could select ANY of these guys and still claim they have taken the BPA, even if they are ultimately making a preference based on need. When teams say they are drafting BPA... what they really mean is they WILL NOT be reaching (taking a player in a lower tier) just to fill a need.
  12. Mock drafts are fun, but nobody is remotely close to accurate anymore. One trade at the top completely destroys everything after. And the last few years, pretty much every draft has seen multiple trades within the Top 10.
  13. There will be defensive playmakers outside of the Top 5. You probably can't say the same for a potential franchise QB. If the Giants don't take a QB, there could still be another team that trades up and does. It's also possible the Raiders decide to take a QB.
  14. I was going to say the same thing. Pretty much everyone that didn't reach for a QB ended up with a regular Pro-Bowl talent.
  15. The 2013 draft class was possibly the worst in my lifetime.
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