mjt328

As many have consistently pointed out, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl the last two years and are favored to repeat again in 2024. That is AFTER they traded away Tyreek Hill, and knocked their receiver group down to one of the worst in the NFL. There are 9 different major position groups in the NFL. It's impossible to prioritize all of them with 1st Round Picks and high dollar contracts. I don't really know what people expect? If we use all our resources on WR, then it's going to take a toll on our O-Line, Pass Rush, Secondary, etc. etc. How can anyone say Brandon Beane doesn't value receiving weapons? In reality, he has used 3 of his last 5 top draft picks on that exact thing. He traded a 1st Round Pick for Stefon Diggs in 2020. He targeted a WR in the 1st Round of the 2023 draft, and ended up going with Dalton Kincaid when the other viable options were gone. They targeted a WR in the 1st Round again in 2024, and clearly explained that trading down (a whopping 5 spots over two trades) was due to several players being ranked about the same. Does drafting Coleman hold less value because he was picked at #33 instead of #28? I know everything isn't sunshine and flowers around this team right now. But let's at least make sure our criticism makes some sense.

The story about Diggs was exactly the same here... until the Bengals playoff game. That was the point things finally started unraveling (at least publicly). Even after that sideline tantrum, most Bills fans were willing to shrug it off. Opinion on Diggs didn't really shift until the training camp absence last summer, and his production totally falling off in the second half.

If one thing is true in the history of sports, it's that the BEST players know how to turn things up in the postseason/championships. And the Bills are severely lacking in the number of game-changing superstars on the roster. Josh Allen's first 6 years are among the best in NFL history for a Quarterback. But statistically, he's even better in the playoffs. Unfortunately, there isn't a single player on the offensive roster (outside of a single game from Gabe Davis) who you can say that about. Our "superstar" receiver consistently disappeared in the playoffs every single year... outside of the emotional outbursts on the sideline and after our losses. Very similar story on the defensive side. Brandon Beane has proven excellent at providing players who fit/mesh with Sean McDermott's scheme perfectly. Regardless of injuries, we are always able to field a Top 5-10 unit during the regular season. But when the elite QBs come around, we need more than a clever scheme. We need our top players to step up and take over the game. Especially rushing the passer. And we can't do it. In my opinion, Beane does realize the problem and has attempted to correct it. After the 2020 championship loss, he went nuts and drafted Groot/Boogie back to back. The next year, he broke the bank to get Von Miller. He knows this team NEEDS an elite pass rusher for the postseason. It just hasn't worked out yet. With all that said, there is still a lot of luck involved. Both in the regular season and postseason. The Bills were 13 seconds away from winning in 2021. The 2022 regular season game came down to a last minute Knox touchdown and Taron Johnson INT to win. The 2023 regular season had the Kadarius Toney Offside. Postseason we were a missed field goal away from tying.

The schedule is absolutely brutal. At least if you consider how teams finished last season. The real question is whether the Bills can win the division. Strength of schedule is a real hurdle this year, especially versus the Jets. First of all, we play ALL of last year's Final Four to the Super Bowl. Ravens (Road), Chiefs (Home), 49ers (Home), Lions (Road). We also play two other tough playoff teams from last year's postseason, both unfortunately on the road. Texans and Rams. It would be optimistic to think we walk out of these games with a 3-3 record, even if we are just as good as in previous years. The last few years, our record against the AFC East has been 4-2. That seems about right again this season. Split with the Dolphins and Jets, who are both good. Sweep the Patriots, who suck and have a rookie Quarterback. Jaguars (Home) were 9-8 and beat us last year. Seahawks (Road) and Colts (Road) were also 9-8 a season ago, just missing the playoffs. That leaves the only two bottom-level teams on our schedule, Cardinals (Home) and Titans (Home). We should be favored to win in all of these. But we also usually drop at least one game we should win each season. So let's say 4-1 in these. That gives us an overall record of 11-6 (same as last year), which would definitely make the playoffs. It was barely enough to win the East though. Now consider the games we play different from our other AFC East competition: - The Jets play the Broncos (instead of Chiefs), Vikings (instead of Lions) and Steelers (instead of Ravens). - The Dolphins play the Raiders (instead of Chiefs), Packers (instead of Lions) and Browns (instead of Ravens).

I get what you are saying. Hardy seemed more productive in the preseason games I watched. But you also need to keep in mind that we traded for the CB/Returner from the Jets. Keeping Hardy too would have given us 8 cornerbacks, versus 4 defensive ends. This is definitely something I believe that Brandon Beane needs to consider in future drafts. Every spring he seems to prioritize draft capital (10 picks last year, 8 next year). Then he struggles to keep his picks on the roster when cut day comes along. We seem to lose a member of our draft class every year to other teams. Compared to other top NFL teams, the Bills have a very deep roster... but they also seem to lack impact/superstars. Look at us against the Chiefs, 49ers, etc. It's very possible this is a byproduct of Beane prioritizing quantity over quality. If Beane can consistently find solid players on Day 2-3 of the draft (only to later be forced to cut them)... then why not use some of those resources to move-up in the 1st Round and get a better prospect?

The guy showed promise (against mostly 3rd/4th stringers), but let's take a breather for a second. As a cornerback, Hardy would have been #5 on the depth chart behind Douglas, Benford, Elam and Ingram. In the slot, he would be #3 on the depth chart behind Johnson and Lewis. Does this team have space for another developmental DB, who isn't likely to crack the starting lineup for another 2-3 seasons at best? Especially when you consider this regime can pretty much draft and develop good CBs at will. I was surprised they cut him too. But there is sound reasoning behind it. It's great to have a deep pipeline. But guys who aren't going to see the field NEED to be contributors on special teams. They saw more value in replacing him with a returner, who will actually touch the ball multiple times every week.

My guess is that Hardy was drafted 90% for his return abilities, and they just weren't impressed with that aspect of his game. Yes, he looked good as a Cornerback in the preseason. But the Bills already have Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson as starters, Kaiir Elam itching to get on the field and another promising youngster in Jamarcus Ingram. They probably value a guy who will actually play this season (as a returner), over a guy who would be the #5 outside guy the entire year. Hopefully they can bring him back to the practice squad.

The only person who really stood out on the broadcast was Frank Gore Jr. Not sure what that means, because Running Backs always seem to stand-out in the second half of preseason games (when all the guys who aren't going to make the NFL are trying to shed blocks and tackle). I do notice that Daequon Hardy seems to be sticky in coverage and is good at playing the ball. If he can learn to catch, he could become an interception machine for us. In the same way, Javon Solomon definitely has pass rushing ability and creates pressure, but needs to get better at finishing to land the sack.

Are the Bills going to make the tough (but smart) decision to move-on from Tyler Bass before Week 1? Or are we going to wait until he actually costs us a game? The problem last year clearly wasn't injury related. And whatever is wrong with his technique or confidence hasn't been fixed in the 7 months he's had since blowing it huge in the playoffs. I just can't see him magically turning it around once the regular season hits. He's done. And it's just a disaster waiting to happen. If I'm Sean McDermott right now, I doubt I would send him out for anything over 40-45 yards. Yes. I understand the cap implications. But that clearly didn't bother Beane when it came to Stefon Diggs (or several other vet players). I would rather take my chances with a street free agent.

Christian Benford has been injury-prone his entire career. Rasul Douglas has a void option in his contract and will likely be a free agent next year. I have a feeling that Elam will play a lot this year, play very well, and eventually become the full-time starter.

Every season there is only one NFL team (and fanbase) that will go home happy. Either it ends without qualifying for the playoffs, or by getting eliminated short of the ultimate goal. I would even argue the closer a team gets, the more painful it actually is. Anyone who lived through the 90s can tell you this. The problem is... the Bills have NEVER been that one team.

Consider the history of the Buffalo Bills franchise (founded in 1960), and you will understand why this fanbase is generally negative and pessimistic. Every time this team has been on the pinnacle of something great, their hopes are dashed to the ground and destroyed. Our last championship came way back in 1965. Almost 60 years ago. Long before the majority of current fans were even alive. Ironically, this was also exactly one season before the Super Bowl was created. Players always say you "can't take away" their championship victory. Well today, the NFL doesn't really count anything that came before Green Bay in 1966. Only 12 months separate the Bills from getting an opportunity to win the very first Super Bowl... and instead having their AFL titles relegated to an old and forgotten era of football history. Over the next 22 years, the Bills managed to win the division only twice and make the playoffs a total of FOUR times. This included a span where they had possibly the best player in the sport (OJ Simpson). Of course, this once loved and celebrated star - once considered the greatest athlete to wear the Buffalo uniform - later turned out to be a cold-blooded murderer. The team's greatest era finally began in 1988 and ran for almost a decade. Despite boasting a team with a half-dozen Hall of Famers, they somehow managed to choke away four straight Super Bowl appearances (losing to both Jeff Hostetler and Mark Rypien in the big game). Ask most Bills fans about the 90s and you will get a mix of fond nostalgia and PTSD. Fitting those years were bookended by "Wide Right" at the beginning, and concluded with the "Music City Miracle." Despite the absolute statistical improbability (especially with the league pushing for parity), the Bills somehow missed the playoffs for the next 17 years. Nearly long enough for a newborn to reach adulthood before experiencing a postseason game. Endless GMs, coaches, quarterbacks and rosters bringing hope. All ending exactly the same. Our recent resurrection under Beane/McDermott/Allen started with great promise. Even for the most skeptical of us older Bills fans. Surely this group would bring us a Super Bowl eventually. But after "13 Seconds", "Wide Right 2", four-straight early exits from the postseason, an endless string of injuries... it just seems like we've been on this roller coaster before.

Sadly, it's a very long list... Josh Allen needs to stay healthy for 17 games, plus the entire postseason. Even one lost game could be very costly in a tight playoff race. Wide receiver group cannot be a liability (significant trouble getting open, dropped passes), and must pose enough of a threat to the secondary that defenses can't just send 6-7 pass rushers every play. After all the offseason changes, O-Line must gel into a solid unit very quickly. This includes McGovern handling the Center job, Edwards doing good at Left Guard and O'Cyrus Torrence not having a sophomore slump. Joe Brady must continue to develop as a play-caller, stay creative and not get figured out by defensive coordinators. At least one pass rusher needs to step up big, and become a force off the Edge. Either Von Miller regains his old form, or we see a major breakout from Groot/Epenesa. A capable replacement must be found for Matt Milano. Not one, but two safeties are needed to step into the all-important roles previously held by Poyer/Hyde. New defensive coordinator Bobby Babich must be capable of handling the promotion. Tyler Bass needs to go back to be a dependable kicker from long-distance. New leaders must step up all over the locker room, with numerous veterans leaving (Diggs, Morse, White, Poyer, Hyde). This is just to get the Bills back to where they were LAST year. If they want to go FARTHER and actually have a chance at winning the Super Bowl, then we must also see: Sean McDermott figure out how to stop elite Quarterbacks in the playoffs. The core roster must go into the postseason relatively healthy.

Try hard enough, and you can convince yourself we will be in good shape, despite all the warning signs. Objectively, it's really difficult to see this team going anywhere this season. Twelve months ago, if you would have asked what superstars the Bills have outside of Josh Allen, most people would have answered (in no particular order) Stefon Diggs, Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Matt Milano and Von Miller. The only remaining player on that list is Miller, who looked completely done last year. The replacements we are heavily counting on are (rookie) Keon Coleman, Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin and Dorian Williams. Even if we can get close to the same on-field production, we will still greatly miss the leadership aspect. The team is also counting heavily on breakout seasons from Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Greg Rousseau, Terrell Bernard, etc. Not just to be good, but to become the next group of superstars on the Buffalo Bills. Looking at the schedule, the Bills are starting off with a 2-3 game disadvantage against the Jets/Dolphins due to opponent difficulty. They barely scraped by the Dolphins last year, and seem to have trouble with the Jets in head-to-head even without Aaron Rodgers back. Not a lot of room for error if you want to win the division. We will be breaking in lots of new starters, adjusting to a shuffled O-Line, hoping new talent steps into leadership roles, etc. If things start slow, we could be fighting out of a hole by Halloween. So yeah, I get where you are coming from with the "little" things. But the Bills have too many other "big" problems to overcome first.

This is the Buffalo Bills. In my 30+ years of watching this team, it seems like if something CAN go wrong... then it eventually WILL go wrong. It's frustrating to see the coaching staff willingly trust players that have blown it over and over, and are showing no signs of improvement. I get all the reasons that James Cook is awesome. explosive, productive, etc., etc., etc. But the guy dropped a TD in the playoff game. And he keeps dropping passes in training camp and the preseason. Just like Tyler Bass blowing the final kick in the playoff game. And here we are rolling through the preseason with no kicking competition, and reports of him missing over and over in practice. And just like we continually field an undersized defense, and then act surprised when the group is devastated by injuries by mid-season.