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mjt328

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About mjt328

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  1. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is winning. However... Bills fans need to realize that our Defense is NOT going to be capable of carrying this team for the next 10-15 years. If we are extremely lucky, they will be a Top 5-10 unit most seasons and occasionally dominant for stretches. But you can't count on a Defense to consistently carry a team into Super Bowl contention. The best Defenses in NFL history were able to remain elite for 1-2 seasons before trailing off. To be a long-term success, the Bills will need to have a QB playing consistently at a Top 10 level. So yes. It absolutely matters that Josh Allen have a breakout game - proving he can dominate the opponent with his arm and carry the Offense to 35+ points. With that said, I don't think Allen is TOTALLY to blame for his lack of breakout this season. The offense (as a whole) is struggling to complete drives, and struggling to stay in rhythm for an entire 4 quarters. This has been a trend since the opening moments of the Jets game, when we drove 50-60 yards and fumbled on a sack-strip. Strangely enough, this is not a Red Zone issue - as we are among the league's best at converting RZ trips into Touchdowns. Our problem seems to be turnovers, penalties, sacks and drops - always stalling drives once we hit the opponent 30-40 yard line. We also seem to go through extended stretches of 3-4 drives per game where our Offense is incapable of doing anything, before we suddenly get back into playing well. Allen's stats have also suffered because of coaching preference and game situation. Six games in, the Bills haven't really been forced into being aggressive. The only exception being the 16 point deficit against the Jets (in which the Bills rolled-up 17 unanswered points in the 4th Quarter). We haven't trailed significantly at any other point. And where the majority of other teams go for the throat when they are playing well, our staff clearly gets into a conservative shell anytime we get into a double-digit lead. You saw this in the Giants and Bengals games, and then again in the 4th Quarter yesterday. They trust the Defense to hold strong, and start looking to run the clock down when up by two scores. This isn't going to help Allen's passing stats. Bottom line... the glimpses of what we WANT/NEED our QB to be are very visible. We see stretches of them almost every single week. Right now, I think Allen is trying to find the delicate balance of being aggressive enough to consistently score points... versus pushing the ball too much and causing multiple turnovers. It can be very frustrating at times. The good news? Anytime we've needed Allen to step-up during crunch time, he's done it. Don't forget he was driving us down for the go-ahead score against New England before the concussion. Hopefully he will eventually put the pieces together and become more consistent.
  2. That is definitely another factor to consider. QBs with zero ability to elude pass rushers (our old boy Drew Bledsoe immediately comes to mind) face another set of issues. At the end of the day, I think running ability can be a tremendous asset to a QB and a great weapon for the offense. But both the player and coaching staff need to be mindful of avoiding hits, regardless of how it happens. Take advantage of the sidelines, and the rules that allow for sliding. Make the offensive line a priority every season. My hope is that Josh Allen and the Bills staff look towards Russell Wilson as the model to follow. He always makes an effort to protect himself. On the flip-side, you have guys like Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson who act like running backs. You can see how things are finally catching up to Newton, and I hope Watson isn't headed down the same road.
  3. A few points on this study: 1. Not all QB designed runs or scrambles are created equal. Many QBs are smart enough to slide or get out of bounds (which is why Russell Wilson has been so durable despite his scrambles). This is much different than when a QB invites contact like a running back (such as Cam Newton). 2. Quarterback Sneaks Despite the freak injury to Patrick Mahomes last night, the QB sneak is generally a very safe play. Until now, I've never seen anyone get hurt while sneaking. I imagine this skews the numbers in favor of "designed" runs. 3. Running QBs are still exposed to MORE hits Even if you take the numbers above as gospel, running QBs are still going to get hurt more. While pocket passers are only in danger from sacks, the scrambling guys are in danger from BOTH. The more opportunity to get hit, the greater chance for injury. 4. Offensive Line is vital The worst thing for QBs will almost always be sacks/hits while throwing, simply because they cannot protect or brace themselves. This is why Left Tackles get paid so much, to stop the blindside hits.
  4. Ugh... This topic again. If teams want to sign him, of course they should be allowed to. If teams don't want to sign him, they shouldn't be forced into it. And get out of here with that "racism" garbage. Around 70 percent of the NFL is made up on African Americans, despite comprising less than 15 percent of the overall US population. Kaepernick isn't sitting at home because of the color of his skin. He's sitting because he used his job to promote controversial political ideology, infuriated a huge chunk of the NFL's paying customer base... and he simply wasn't a good enough player to warrant the distraction.
  5. Frank Wycheck was directly between the 24-25 yard line when he released the ball. Kevin Dyson catches the ball on approximately the 26 yard line. Do the math and you tell me.
  6. Eh. Not quite that many. According to Ourlads.com, Alabama currently has 61 active NFL players. That traces back to 2009. So roughly 6 per season - counting both starters and backups. The most draft picks a college has EVER had in one class is only 12 players. That is spread across 7 rounds and roughly 250 picks. It would be generous to say half of the current 22 starters on Alabama will eventually become long-term NFL players. That doesn't mean Pro-Bowlers or even starters. But guys worthy of being on a roster longer than a couple seasons. The Dolphins are bad. But there is no way half of their starters couldn't make the ROSTER of another NFL team. Absolutely no way. Robert Foster was immediately dropped to the #4-5 receiver on the team, after some legitimate talent was brought to the team. We are talking about an UDFA who hasn't caught a pass this season. He's not really a good example of anything. Not a chance. Even a powerhouse university like Alabama is only going to produce 6-7 NFL players per year. Maybe half of those guys are going to become NFL starters. Only a couple will become high-level impact players. Here is the complete list of Alabama's draft picks, throughout all of NFL history. Just try assembling a remotely competitive NFL depth chart with any 2-3 consecutive seasons. You can't do it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_players_in_the_NFL_draft Not to mention, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER on the Alabama roster is less than a rookie. They are undersized and inexperienced. They have not adapted to professional game speed. They have not learned a professional playbook. You don't have any veteran players to help them learn the ropes. They haven't even seen an NFL practice field.
  7. AJ Green's best days may be behind him, and who knows when/if he's going to return. Melvin Gordon is an above average back. I wouldn't really consider him a game-changer. I don't believe our problem on offense is the "lack" of a player like Green. We have 9 new starters on offense, and one of our returning players is a second-year QB with only 16 starts to his name. The team has been moving the ball well at times, but is stalling out mostly due to turnovers, sacks, drops and penalties. I also believe the coaching staff is getting conservative in the second half of games, mostly because they know our Defense can hold a small lead. I know there is a temptation among fans to GO FOR IT ALL when their team has the looks of being a playoff contender. And I think our front office should always be doing due-diligence on obtaining good players. But our goal should be sustainability and staying competitive for the long haul. Beane needs to be careful about mortgaging the future on a one-year rental like Green, or handing a big contract to someone like Gordon. As Josh Allen continues to gain experience, he (hopefully) will get smarter about the turnovers. As our O-Line gains some stability, we (hopefully) will get some better blocking. As everyone on offense gets more comfortable and in rhythm, we (hopefully) will start completing these long drives and will put points on the board. I have no doubts these offensive players have the capability of putting up 25 points per game.
  8. Bills fans just don't like under-performing players. The targets for hate are usually high draft picks or big-contract free agents, who aren't performing up to expectations. Tremaine Edmunds was catching a lot of criticism last year. But so far this season, he's clearly making an impact (especially against New England). With Zay Jones gone, you can already see the frustration rising around Cody Ford. If he doesn't start playing well before about Week 7-8, people are going to start throwing the term "bust" around pretty frequently. On the veteran side, you see plenty of hate going towards Star Lotulelei, Tyler Kroft, Trent Murphy and TJ Yeldon.
  9. One game at a time. Right now, I would put us into the same tier as the Texans, Ravens, Colts and maybe Chargers. In my opinion, our offense still hasn't clicked. They are playing sloppy, making tons of mistakes and turning the ball over. Yet we are still winning. If we can get some consistent rhythm going on that side of the ball, we start winning by two scores instead of scraping everything out.
  10. The schedule is ridiculously favorable. It's hard not to see us finishing with at least 10 wins. I'm hoping for more than just making the playoffs though. Most people are viewing the Bills as a strong defense, which is supporting a weak offense. And there may be some truth to that....so far. But unlike many past years (where I felt scoring a touchdown was a miracle), this offense is showing glimpses of being very solid. Don't forget that our offense has 9-10 new starters, with one of the returning players being a QB with only 16 starts to his name. I don't think that side of the ball is playing to their potential yet. We are continually moving the ball and racking up yards, but shooting ourselves in the foot before we can put points on the board. Clean up the mistakes/turnovers, and this offense is easily capable of 25+ points per game. Combine that with this defense, and nobody is going to have an easy time beating us.
  11. My thoughts exactly. Once a team gets deep into the playoffs, opponents are very good and games are a 50-50 shot. The best strategy for winning a Super Bowl is consistency and sustainability. Not mortgaging your future for ONE chance at a championship. Draft 3-4 good NFL starters every single year. Don't overburden the salary cap with stupid contracts. Build a team with strong depth that can weather injuries, and replace free agents who leave for more money. The goal should be to win 11+ games every season. Do that, and you are bound to get some first-round byes. String together some good playoff games, and chances are you will win it at least once.
  12. Exactly. Some young QBs start strong, then fade off as defenses begin to gather film and notice tendencies. Some young QBs start slow, but improve with learning and development.
  13. If you are referring specifically to deep shots, I think it's a mix of three things: 1. Play Design 2. Offensive Line 3. Josh Allen Outside of the New England game, the receivers are not running very many deep routes to begin with. Most plays seem designed to get people open within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Bills offensive attack is a complete 180 from what we saw last year. The few times we've called for deep shots, the offensive line hasn't held up long enough for the QB to get the pass off.... or Allen hasn't thrown an accurate pass where the WR can get to it. It also doesn't help that Robert Foster has been dinged up. With him out of the lineup, our only deep threat is John Brown. Teams know that and are going to bring safety help to his side of the field. Based on all the above factors, I think the Bills are doing the right thing by taking what the defense gives them. Yardage-wise, we are playing very well and significantly out gaining our opponents. By sustaining longer drives, we are helping keep the defense fresh. The problem is that we keep making dumb mistakes at the wrong times (penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, missed blocks), which are killing productive drives and keeping points off the board. If the Bills can clean-up their sloppy mistakes, I think the points will come.
  14. As of right now, Josh Allen is on pace to have improved his completion percentage by almost 8 points - while also increasing his YPA by almost a half-yard from last year. He's also on pace to throw for over 50 yards per game more than last season. Up until the New England loss, most observers were stating that Allen had taken great strides in his accuracy, pocket presence and ability to read a defense. Bottom line. He is not going to have the same numbers. The Patriots Defense meanwhile, is literally setting NFL records for greatness. We are talking 85 Bears level of dominance. Yes, Allen looked terrible on Sunday. Worse than he's looked since the early part of his rookie year. But I'm not sure that measuring his performance against what could end up being the best unit in NFL history, is really a good benchmark for saying he is "regressing" as a passer. I'll agree that Allen is not good enough... right now. We ultimately need him to become a Top 10 quarterback in this league by (at least) Year 4-5, or it will be time to look in a different direction. We should accept nothing less. At this point of his career (15 starts), I think he is only in the #20-25 range -- alongside the other guys from his draft class like Mayfield, Darnold and Jackson. But last year, he was around #30-35... so we are seeing a slow climb. I've already stated on this board that I'm concerned about Allen's reckless turnovers. He has a whopping 11 turnovers in only four games, and it actually could have been more. He's getting baited into the same stupid throws EVERY SINGLE WEEK, and this time it finally cost us the game. There are times he's also holding the ball too long, and failing to spot open receivers. At the same time, there are plenty of reasons for optimism and numerous ways to mark his improvement over the last 12 months. It's foolish to only see his struggles and ignore where he's finding success.
  15. It's been widely observed that Cody Ford is playing very poorly at Right Tackle right now. The offense seems to play better and have less protection breakdowns with Ty Nsekhe on the field. This also may be a reason our offense is so inconsistent from drive to drive. Most teams prefer to establish continuity with the O-Line. Our coaching staff seems determined to give Ford rotational reps anyway, deal with the growing pains and hope it helps accelerate his development. It could be argued that Ford needs to be pulled out completely, and he needs to get better in practice before getting pushed onto the field. Our coaches see it differently, and I guess only time will tell if they are doing the right thing. Personally, I would like to see Brian Daboll make some adjustments to help the O-Line and take some pressure off Josh Allen. Run the ball more. Call for more quick two-step passing plays. Put the running back into the backfield as an extra blocker. Around the league, other teams are doing everything they can to help their young QBs with extra protection and easy passes. Daboll puts Allen back there with five receivers, an empty backfield, and expects him to attack every secondary 15-20 yards downfield.
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