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About mjt328

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  1. Lots of crazy things could happen between now and April. Who would have thought Kyler Murray would have gone #1 to the Cardinals at this time last season? With Carolina bringing in Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, I'm curious if they might try to make a move for the #1 pick (they currently sit at #7). If you are the Panthers, the idea of reuniting Brady/Burrows is very tempting. And if you are the Bengals, would a massive load of picks be worth moving down 6 spots and maybe still getting Tua or Justin Herbert? It's not totally inconceivable. I'm friends with the brother of an NFL scout. And despite how great Burrows was this year, I can tell you that (at least some) teams are WAY more excited about Trevor Lawrence coming out next year. It's something to consider when looking at the "bad" teams who are in a position to draft a QB in 2020.
  2. Stats can be misleading without context. At this point, I don't care what PFF or Football Outsiders says... or what random stat is brought up to criticize individual players in our defense. I've read recent articles that say Tre White is overrated, Jordan Phillips is a below average lineman, Matt Milano can't tackle, etc. Now we are knocking Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, who are two key pieces in one of the NFL's best pass defenses 3 years running. Bottom line -- this defense performed at a Super Bowl level in 2019. Outside of maybe the Philadelphia game, they put us in a position to win every single other game this year. That would be 16 of 17 total games on the year. If we could count on our offense to put up just 25 points, we would have beaten the Patriots both times, the Browns, the Ravens, the final Jets game, and the Wild Card Round. Like I said in another thread... I doubt anyone could come up with more than 2-3 defenses that played better in 2019 than the Bills. And that is being extremely generous. However, Micah Hyde was our BEST RANKED player for the year. And he wasn't even Top 10 at his position. How can PFF justify that?
  3. What O-Line free agent additions would make us dominant? Our weak spot on the O-Line was easily Cody Ford. Who was a rookie. Now, I would be OK with sliding him inside and going after another Right Tackle to start. But there aren't really any RTs available that would make us a dominant unit. The best is probably Bryan Bulaga, who is the NFL's definition of average. Not exactly a guy that would give us a killer unit. If you slide Ford inside, then you probably want to give him a chance to develop there. Yes, there are some pretty good interior linemen available like Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney. But they will probably demand Top 3-5 money at the position. Is it really great use of cap dollars to invest in one of those guys, when you have a 2nd Round Pick developing and a guy who played pretty good (Jon Feliciano) already on a bargain contract? I just can't see Beane make another move here, especially after landing Mitch Morse last season. The best LT available is probably Anthony Castonzo (who very likely won't be hitting free agency anyway). He is generally considered a pretty good player, but not a great one. Without considering his age (31) and contract, I would only consider him a marginal upgrade over Dion Dawkins. I think Dawkins improved quite a bit this year, and a smart team lets him play out his contract year before looking for a replacement. Also.... two playoff wins by the Tennessee Titans does not suddenly resurrect 20th century football. Just like the Rams-Chiefs game from last year didn't suddenly make defense irrelevant (like so many were claiming). The Bills need more than a dominant line and running back to take the next step.
  4. It's hard to be great at everything. Our defense is a little bit undersized compared to many others around the league. Our primary focus is shutting down passing attacks, and we are quite possibly the #1 defense in that area. On the flip-side, that leaves us vulnerable (at times) to the more physical teams with big offensive linemen and strong running games. And yes, it also causes us to miss some tackles. The good news is, very few teams are built for this kind of power running game. And even fewer coaches are willing to stick with the running game for a full 4 quarters. Our defense is also usually pretty disciplines with gap control. That's why Philadelphia was pretty much their only "bad" performance all season. It was a perfect storm of the opponent staying dedicated to the power run game, and our defense having an off-day staying in position.
  5. Good player. But I'm also worried about his attitude and whether he's a team-first guy. I had the same questions when he came out of college.
  6. I haven't seen much Tyler Kroft love on this board. Most consider him very replaceable. People seem to be more excited about our younger guys with Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney. The problem with Tight End this year, is that replacement options look pretty weak. The highest ranked draft options are considered late Day 2 picks. The position is not strong or deep this year. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are the best Free Agent options on the market. Henry has been very good at times, but has even more injury questions than Kroft. The more I think about it, Hooper would be nice to pair with Knox. But there is a good chance Atlanta doesn't let him even hit the market.
  7. No flaming for the Marcus Mariota idea. I think he would be a very good backup option for us. That's OK if you aren't sold on Josh Allen. He clearly needs improvement before we can be fully confident he's the answer. But if you think the coaching staff doesn't give him AT LEAST 3 full seasons (and probably 4) before looking elsewhere, then you are fooling yourself.
  8. One of the primary goals of Free Agency should be to setup the draft, and allow us to go BPA instead of desperately filling holes. This year's draft is very strong at certain positions, and very weak at others. From my vantage point, the #22 spot is going to be a great position for any team in need of a Wide Receiver. There also seem to be some good Running Back and Cornerback options that slip to us the 2nd Round. So my main targets in Free Agency will focus on the spots we probably can't fill in the draft. On top of that list should be pass rusher. My plan would be to re-sign Shaq Lawson, add another DE and then cut Trent Murphy. Guys like Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue or Arik Armstead would be great additions. There are some other guys on the market who could help as well, such as Bud Dupree, Matthew Judon or Shaq Barrett. Someone versatile like Kyle Van Noy would be a great replacement for Lorenzo Alexander. My guess is that Jordan Phillips will not have a huge market, seeing the high number of interior defensive linemen on the market. I would like to get him back on a fair deal. But if the Bills can't get him back, there are lots of other options like Chris Jones, Leonard Williams or Javon Hargrave. The WR market is fools gold this year. Amari Cooper is easily the best option, and he runs very hot and cold. AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald are pretty much done. Like I said earlier, this is the position to hit in the draft. On the TE side, I think Hunter Henry is the best option available, but is too injury prone and undependable. I think Dawson Knox has more potential that Austin Hooper. Offensive Line is a position I would (maybe) be comfortable keeping relatively the same as 2019. The coaching staff really needs to settle on a long-term position for Cody Ford. If they are confident he can be our Right Tackle, then bring back Quinton Spain and leave the O-Line intact. If they think he projects to guard, then slide him inside and go after Jack Conklin. As a luxury, I would like to make an offer to Byron Jones. Pairing him with Tre White could really make our defense unstoppable.
  9. I prefer to look at the NFL in tiers. Teams generally play 50/50 ball against teams in the same tier, struggle against those above them, and take care of business against those below them. In my opinion, the only clear Tier 1 teams in the AFC were the Ravens and Chiefs. The Patriots started the season there, but regressed badly in the final month. The Titans have played extremely well the last two weeks, but I think they get destroyed in the Championship game. The Bills were clearly a Tier 2 team this year. They split wins-losses against the other similar teams, such as the Titans, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys and Eagles. They were almost perfect against the NFL's average/below average teams. But they couldn't quite get over the hump against the teams on the next level - Ravens, Patriots. So unfortunately, I don't think the Bills would have been able to pull off 3 straight wins in the postseason. To get to the next level, the Bills need their offense to step up. That starts with Josh Allen progressing from a bottom quarter QB into the top half of the NFL. It will require more weapons in the passing and running game, and more consistent play from the offensive line.
  10. Thanks to this weekend's games, the running game has once again become popular. And it's probably going to make Derrick Henry a very rich man. But don't be fooled. It's still not a wise strategy to pay big bucks to a Free Agent running back. More than any other position, RBs tend to wear down early in their careers. Most guys peak before they hit 25. Very few are still effective by the time they reach 30 years old. Guys with heavy workloads also tend to drop-off the next season. The smartest GMs tend to regularly target RBs in the 2nd-3rd Round (which is where Henry was originally drafted), let their guys walk after that rookie contract expires, and then rinse-repeat.
  11. We definitely need another RB. But I would prefer a dual threat guy, instead of a one-dimensional short yardage bruiser. Whenever Frank Gore was on the field, it told the defense that we were probably going to run between the tackles. He wasn't really a threat to get around the edge. And he wasn't really a threat in the passing game. Combine that with Josh Allen's struggles with downfield passes, and teams had no problem loading the box against us. I'm a big believer in going BPA in the draft. But from what I've seen, the Bills should have a very good WR prospect fall into their lap in the 1st Round. And a pretty good RB prospect could likely slip to us in the 2nd Round.
  12. Right now (based on average salary on Spotrac), Star Lotulelei is the 14th highest paid DT in the NFL. Jordan Phillips played out this season at #29. Ed Oliver's rookie contract puts him at #24. If we hand over $10-11 million per year to Phillips, that puts him just outside the Top 10 for the entire league. If Phillips is pushing for that much, I do think our front office lets him test free agency and he comes back to the table a little bit disappointed. But if we hand over $8-9 million per year - which I think is much more realistic - that puts him in the #15-20 range for DTs. That's not really crazy high. At the end of the day, if we are investing for the 14th, (and let's say) the 17th and 24th highest paid DTs in the league, I don't really think that's a massively huge investment. Especially when we already know this unit works well together.
  13. Don't care how it happens. Time for a changing of the guard. The New England Patriots never won a thing while Jim Kelly and Dan Marino owned the AFC East. And nobody thought less of them winning after Kelly/Marino retired.
  14. It will be interesting to see how the market plays out. I was looking at a few Free Agent rankings online, and neither site had Phillips or Lawson in the Top 25 free agents at their positions. It was pretty pathetic, but it makes me wonder if these guys are truly flying under the radar.
  15. Amazing how our Defense was Top 5 in virtually every category, yet according to PFF almost all of our defensive players are below average. A couple weeks ago, one of their guys was defending the ridiculously low grade on Tre White. It was hilarious during the Pittsburgh introductions. I don't think the Bills had one guy in the Top 30 at their position on the defensive side. Hopefully the other teams looking for D-Line help take PFF as gospel. It may help us retain Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson on some bargain deals.
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