mjt328

It will be interesting to see what the commentators who watch All-22 say about this. Defenses have clearly adjusted to what Joe Brady was doing in Weeks 1-3. Hopefully he finds the answers quickly, or we may be looking at another mid-season OC firing. I'm noticing much less motion and movement, which makes me think the Bills are seeing more zone coverage than man coverage. The short stuff isn't there anymore, which means we SHOULD be able to make plays downfield. I'm just baffled those shots are somehow going to... Mack Hollins (?)... who is apparently terrible at tracking the deep ball. We tried a couple comeback/back-shoulder throws in the 2nd half (one which led to the touchdown). But those aren't typically high-percentage plays we can count on. Where is Curtis Samuel down the field? Everything is a gadget or screen. Why aren't Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox (he is still on the team right?) able to make plays against linebackers. Not sure we need to make a splash for Davante Adams or some other diva #1. Do our guys suck that bad? Or is it just poor utilization? I just don't understand how other coordinators can figure out ways to get people open, and Josh Allen is always staring down the field at nothing. This was true last year with Stefon Diggs in the lineup anyway.

The Bills defense is pretty much 100% Nickel, mostly zone and highly disguised Cover 2 shifts, utilizing a 4-man rush without much blitzing. They are probably the best team in the entire NFL at the scheme they run. And in Weeks 1-2, we saw how well the front office has done at obtaining players that fit THIS system, and how awesome the staff has done at coaching up depth to fill-in when starters go down. This scheme is not without its flaws though. Players are a bit undersized, and we operate very light in the box. McDermott's units have always struggled with big physical running games (and Derrick Henry in particular). And they can occasionally get picked apart by extremely accurate QBs who are patient enough to chip down the field (see Bengals playoff game from two years back). This is especially true when the team is without the entire second level of the defense (Milano, Bernard and Johnson). Bills coaches know Josh Allen and the offense are usually a juggernaut. And the few teams capable of exploiting our defensive weaknesses, usually find themselves quickly forced out of that style in order to keep pace on the scoreboard. For anyone complaining, this strategy resulted in 4 straight division titles and the longest streak in NFL history without losing a game by more than 6 points. In other words, they win most of the time. And the other games they at least have a good chance in the late 4th quarter. It's a great plan overall. Especially in a heavy-passing league. Miami will probably never get past us in the AFC East, because our defensive system is constructed specifically to shut-down attacks just like them. But my one gripe with McDermott and staff, is their tendency to be a stubborn when their normal routine isn't doing the job. Even if the strategy listed above works 90% of the time... that other 10% is what will ultimately cost us the Super Bowl year after year. Yes, Baltimore is unique from other teams in the NFL. But what happens if we run into them again (very possible) in the playoffs? Are we going to see the same reluctance from McDermott to break from Nickel, or at least put more people in the box? We all watched the previously mentioned Bengals playoff game, where our defense sat back in soft zone and never adjusted, just allowing Burrow to pick them apart with short passes. Overall I like McDermott, and think his leadership is a key part in our success. But I do think Monday night was evidence that he still hasn't figured out why this team keeps getting bounced from the postseason. And until he does, I can't see the Bills breaking through.

The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls after parting with Tyreek Hill. And even though it's early, the Bills offense definitely seems more consistent without Stefon Diggs in the lineup. I wonder if other teams are going to start realizing the big egos at that position just aren't worth the cap space (and headache). Think about it. When you have a player/captain like Diggs, he absolutely MUST be involved in the weekly gameplan. If the QB isn't feeding him at least 5-10 targets per week, that player will certainly start sulking and complaining. Whether it results in winning or not. At the same time, defenses are putting extra focus/coverage on stopping a WR like Diggs. Which means there are several times during every single game where the QB is purposely forcing the ball into heavy coverage, JUST to make his receiver happy. That is going to result in wasted plays, turnovers and wasted drives. Now maybe Diggs is more capable of beating the coverage and making a highlight catch than an average receiver... but wouldn't it just make more sense to focus on just finding the open guy all the time?

You can't get caught-up in records during the first month of the season. Ravens were arguably the best team in the NFL last year. They came within a toenail (literally) of beating the Chiefs on Week 1. Home team will always get a little boost from the oddsmakers, as it should. And historically, teams will often have a down week after blowing the doors off someone... like we just did against the Jaguars.

Sean McDermott is one of the best Defensive minds in football. He just needs to figure out how to translate that regular season success, and shut-down top QBs in the playoffs.

Easy. I believe Diggs is totally incapable of seeing his own faults, and he truly believes he holds no responsibility for any team failures during his time here. It's like a person who jumps from failed relationship to failed relationship, always blaming the person they used to be with, and never stopping to self-reflect on what they could do better to make it work next time. In my opinion, Diggs eventually came to believe the team was totally incapable of reaching the next level of the postseason and mentally checked-out. Whether that was directed more towards Sean McDermott, Josh Allen, etc., I don't know. But it was clear that something broke in him during the Bengals playoff loss. By the time we reached the final stretch of 2023, the rest of the team seemed determined to step up and save the season. He seemed to be packing it in. There are claims that Diggs was "phased-out" of the offense when Joe Brady took over. But if you look at the stats, he was still getting solid targets (averaging over 8 per game after the OC change) at the end of the 2023 season. He just wasn't doing anything with the ball when it came his way.

Human nature is always looking for someone to blame when things go wrong. I notice a lot of people trying to lay all these injuries on our training and conditioning staff, but I'm not sure that's really fair. Up until the end of 2021, the Bills were actually one of the healthiest teams in the entire league. And if you recall, our training staff and facilities were getting a lot of credit (which honestly was probably just luck and was really undeserved). Then on Thanksgiving of that year, everything started unraveling. And it's been a mess ever since. 2021 - Tre White - ACL 2022 - Micah Hyde - Neck 2022 - Von Miller - ACL 2023 - Tre White - Achilles 2023 - Matt Milano - Leg 2023 - Daquan Jones - Pec 2024 - Matt Milano - Bicep 2024 - Terrel Bernard - Pec As you can see, most of these injuries are freak occurrences. Miller did have a previous ACL tear to the same knee, but it was 9 years prior. Milano gets a bad rap for being injury-prone. But anyone would have gotten hurt getting caught in a pile like that. His bicep injury happened hitting a bag. Bernard is undersized, so I can sorta understand the point being made there. But Jones is not, and he completely tore it. The crazy thing is, everything is on the Defensive side of the ball. Our Offense has remained relatively healthy. Josh Allen has the longest streak of starts for a QB in the NFL. Our O-Line was the only unit to start the same five guys every game last year.

As many have consistently pointed out, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl the last two years and are favored to repeat again in 2024. That is AFTER they traded away Tyreek Hill, and knocked their receiver group down to one of the worst in the NFL. There are 9 different major position groups in the NFL. It's impossible to prioritize all of them with 1st Round Picks and high dollar contracts. I don't really know what people expect? If we use all our resources on WR, then it's going to take a toll on our O-Line, Pass Rush, Secondary, etc. etc. How can anyone say Brandon Beane doesn't value receiving weapons? In reality, he has used 3 of his last 5 top draft picks on that exact thing. He traded a 1st Round Pick for Stefon Diggs in 2020. He targeted a WR in the 1st Round of the 2023 draft, and ended up going with Dalton Kincaid when the other viable options were gone. They targeted a WR in the 1st Round again in 2024, and clearly explained that trading down (a whopping 5 spots over two trades) was due to several players being ranked about the same. Does drafting Coleman hold less value because he was picked at #33 instead of #28? I know everything isn't sunshine and flowers around this team right now. But let's at least make sure our criticism makes some sense.

The story about Diggs was exactly the same here... until the Bengals playoff game. That was the point things finally started unraveling (at least publicly). Even after that sideline tantrum, most Bills fans were willing to shrug it off. Opinion on Diggs didn't really shift until the training camp absence last summer, and his production totally falling off in the second half.

If one thing is true in the history of sports, it's that the BEST players know how to turn things up in the postseason/championships. And the Bills are severely lacking in the number of game-changing superstars on the roster. Josh Allen's first 6 years are among the best in NFL history for a Quarterback. But statistically, he's even better in the playoffs. Unfortunately, there isn't a single player on the offensive roster (outside of a single game from Gabe Davis) who you can say that about. Our "superstar" receiver consistently disappeared in the playoffs every single year... outside of the emotional outbursts on the sideline and after our losses. Very similar story on the defensive side. Brandon Beane has proven excellent at providing players who fit/mesh with Sean McDermott's scheme perfectly. Regardless of injuries, we are always able to field a Top 5-10 unit during the regular season. But when the elite QBs come around, we need more than a clever scheme. We need our top players to step up and take over the game. Especially rushing the passer. And we can't do it. In my opinion, Beane does realize the problem and has attempted to correct it. After the 2020 championship loss, he went nuts and drafted Groot/Boogie back to back. The next year, he broke the bank to get Von Miller. He knows this team NEEDS an elite pass rusher for the postseason. It just hasn't worked out yet. With all that said, there is still a lot of luck involved. Both in the regular season and postseason. The Bills were 13 seconds away from winning in 2021. The 2022 regular season game came down to a last minute Knox touchdown and Taron Johnson INT to win. The 2023 regular season had the Kadarius Toney Offside. Postseason we were a missed field goal away from tying.

The schedule is absolutely brutal. At least if you consider how teams finished last season. The real question is whether the Bills can win the division. Strength of schedule is a real hurdle this year, especially versus the Jets. First of all, we play ALL of last year's Final Four to the Super Bowl. Ravens (Road), Chiefs (Home), 49ers (Home), Lions (Road). We also play two other tough playoff teams from last year's postseason, both unfortunately on the road. Texans and Rams. It would be optimistic to think we walk out of these games with a 3-3 record, even if we are just as good as in previous years. The last few years, our record against the AFC East has been 4-2. That seems about right again this season. Split with the Dolphins and Jets, who are both good. Sweep the Patriots, who suck and have a rookie Quarterback. Jaguars (Home) were 9-8 and beat us last year. Seahawks (Road) and Colts (Road) were also 9-8 a season ago, just missing the playoffs. That leaves the only two bottom-level teams on our schedule, Cardinals (Home) and Titans (Home). We should be favored to win in all of these. But we also usually drop at least one game we should win each season. So let's say 4-1 in these. That gives us an overall record of 11-6 (same as last year), which would definitely make the playoffs. It was barely enough to win the East though. Now consider the games we play different from our other AFC East competition: - The Jets play the Broncos (instead of Chiefs), Vikings (instead of Lions) and Steelers (instead of Ravens). - The Dolphins play the Raiders (instead of Chiefs), Packers (instead of Lions) and Browns (instead of Ravens).

I get what you are saying. Hardy seemed more productive in the preseason games I watched. But you also need to keep in mind that we traded for the CB/Returner from the Jets. Keeping Hardy too would have given us 8 cornerbacks, versus 4 defensive ends. This is definitely something I believe that Brandon Beane needs to consider in future drafts. Every spring he seems to prioritize draft capital (10 picks last year, 8 next year). Then he struggles to keep his picks on the roster when cut day comes along. We seem to lose a member of our draft class every year to other teams. Compared to other top NFL teams, the Bills have a very deep roster... but they also seem to lack impact/superstars. Look at us against the Chiefs, 49ers, etc. It's very possible this is a byproduct of Beane prioritizing quantity over quality. If Beane can consistently find solid players on Day 2-3 of the draft (only to later be forced to cut them)... then why not use some of those resources to move-up in the 1st Round and get a better prospect?

The guy showed promise (against mostly 3rd/4th stringers), but let's take a breather for a second. As a cornerback, Hardy would have been #5 on the depth chart behind Douglas, Benford, Elam and Ingram. In the slot, he would be #3 on the depth chart behind Johnson and Lewis. Does this team have space for another developmental DB, who isn't likely to crack the starting lineup for another 2-3 seasons at best? Especially when you consider this regime can pretty much draft and develop good CBs at will. I was surprised they cut him too. But there is sound reasoning behind it. It's great to have a deep pipeline. But guys who aren't going to see the field NEED to be contributors on special teams. They saw more value in replacing him with a returner, who will actually touch the ball multiple times every week.

My guess is that Hardy was drafted 90% for his return abilities, and they just weren't impressed with that aspect of his game. Yes, he looked good as a Cornerback in the preseason. But the Bills already have Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson as starters, Kaiir Elam itching to get on the field and another promising youngster in Jamarcus Ingram. They probably value a guy who will actually play this season (as a returner), over a guy who would be the #5 outside guy the entire year. Hopefully they can bring him back to the practice squad.

The only person who really stood out on the broadcast was Frank Gore Jr. Not sure what that means, because Running Backs always seem to stand-out in the second half of preseason games (when all the guys who aren't going to make the NFL are trying to shed blocks and tackle). I do notice that Daequon Hardy seems to be sticky in coverage and is good at playing the ball. If he can learn to catch, he could become an interception machine for us. In the same way, Javon Solomon definitely has pass rushing ability and creates pressure, but needs to get better at finishing to land the sack.