mjt328

The Chiefs have now won the AFC West 8 years in a row, and won double-digit games 9 years in a row. During that span, they have 3 Super Bowl wins and 4 appearances. Nobody is expecting less this year. Before them, the Patriots had 17 straight seasons with double-digit wins. They won the AFC East 16 of those years. The only year they didn't was when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, and they still somehow finished with an 11-5 record. Around the same time, the Colts had 9 straight seasons with double-digit wins. Won the AFC South in all but one of those years (12-4 and still ended in second place). Then Peyton Manning missed an entire year with a neck injury and was released. After that down year, they did it 3 more years in a row with Andrew Luck. Even the Steelers now have 20 straight years finishing .500 or above. They haven't had a losing season since Tommy Maddox was the starting quarterback. Bottom line... there are no legitimate excuses for not winning 10-11 plus games and at least making the playoffs. The idea that we "must go through a down year" to re-set the roster and fix the salary cap is complete nonsense. If we can't go 3-4 seasons without needing to rebuild and reboot everything, then Brandon Beane isn't good enough as a General Manager, and he wasn't doing a proper job of preparing for the future. Now whether that expectation is reality, I don't know. Beane's actions appear (at least from the outside) to be a guy fully expecting a rebuild season, and then reloading a year from now. Hoping that I'm wrong.

This is the big one. Deebo Samuel fits what the San Francisco 49ers do on offense, and that's a huge part to his success. The Bills haven't proven they know how to use a versatile player like him. They don't even try.

We know Brandon Beane can build a Top 5 team in the NFL. But can he get our roster over the top? This being draft season, I can't help but go back and look at his previous classes. Lots of good starters. Very few complete misses. Usually goes into the season with few weaknesses and strong depth. But at the same time... so few impact players. Outside of Josh Allen, most of our All-Pro talent was not drafted by Beane. Stefon Diggs (trade), Matt Milano (previous regime), Von Miller, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde (free agents). We also know that Sean McDermott can lead this team to division championships, and consistently field a Top 5 defense. But everything seems to fall apart come playoff time. His coverage and pressure packages don't seem to work when it counts. I'm definitely not the person who likes calling for firings. And I truly believe that Beane/McDermott can get the job done. But to do so, something needs to change in their approach, strategy, etc. They need to break out of their comfort zone. This team is spinning its wheels, and the same old approach year after year just isn't getting it done.

Teams defend Josh Allen/Bills very similar to how they defend Patrick Mahomes/Chiefs. They key on stopping the deep stuff. I have zero problem with us focusing on the easy/underneath throws. That's what works the best in today's NFL. However, I do think you need a legitimate speed threat on the outside to keep defenses honest.

As I've said before, I think Brandon Beane is easily a Top 5-10 General Manager in the NFL. But for someone who's nickname is "big baller," his drafts have become extremely conservative and predictable. That's why so many fans are frustrated. The franchise literally lost a half-dozen guys who were All-Pro talents in previous seasons. But instead of shooting for the stars and trying to land a big-time IMPACT player, Beane was comfortable just filling out the roster with solid and safe players. At this point, it feels like Beane's drafts are mostly on auto-pilot. He knows what kind of players fit Sean McDermott's defensive system. He knows what kind of character traits fit this locker room. He doesn't like taking guys with injury risks, and prioritizes versatility/special teams ability. He is willing to move around the board 4-5 spots, but tries to avoid parting with any picks 4th Round or earlier. - Rounds 1-2 he addresses the Bills two biggest needs. Every single time. - Rounds 3-5 he fills out depth on the roster at positions still needing bodies. - By the last few rounds, we are usually out of fillable roster spots and he's ready to go home.

I've given my fair-share of criticism towards the Bills over the last few days. But all this whining and crying over the Chiefs/Xavier Worthy is short-sighted and ridiculous. No disrespect to their franchise as a whole. But outside of Tyreek Hill and maybe Rashee Rice (who was looking OK the end of last season), the Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the worst drafting teams in the entire NFL when it comes to the Wide Receiver position. Chris Conley, DeMarcus Robinson, Jehu Chesson, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore. Not to mention trading for Kadarius Toney. This fear that Andy Reid is going to develop Worthy into some kind of unstoppable force is not rooted in fact or reality. Also, in my 30+ years watching football, I've seen zero correlation between lightning fast 40-Time runners and success at the WR position. That's why I wasn't personally high on Worthy. Being a track star does not make you a great receiver. There are hundreds, if not thousands of examples. And yes, the chances the Chiefs would still end up with Worthy (without us trading) are pretty good. Very possibly at 32 without it costing them any other draft capitol. Baltimore and Dallas weren't taking a receiver, so the Chiefs could have worked a trade with either to move up too. Maybe San Francisco takes Worthy instead of Ricky Pearsall, but they seem to value versatility more than pure one-dimensional speed. So basically, fans would have been happier if the Bills just stayed put at 32. Drafted Keon Coleman five spots earlier. Not moved up an entire round later in the draft from the 4th to 3rd Round. And then just let the Chiefs pick their guy anyway without a trade-up.

A large chunk of the fanbase is still in denial. Believe me, I went into the offseason with the same attitude. Cut a few aging vets. Make a few smart free agent signings. Kill the draft. Get some bargains post June as the cherry on top, and prepare for another AFC East title. Hopefully more this time. Other teams (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Francisco, etc.) seem to keep the ball rolling year after year after year. Why can't we? I laughed off all the media folks saying the window was closed, and the Bills would be rebuilding. But I was wrong. Without clearly saying it, Brandon Beane has sent the clear message we are NOT expecting a deep run this year. This offseason absolutely is a total rebuild. Every single move he's made screams that he's building for 2025, and I'm shocked that some people can't see it. The Jets are winning the AFC East. It won't be close. And we may even get passed by Miami this year.

My preference would have been to balance the losses/gains between 2024-2025. Going into the offseason, I absolutely expected us to make some tough moves (White, Poyer, Hyde) to clear cap space. But I figured we would offset those losses with some cheap moves in Free Agency, and be right back in the thick of things for another serious Super Bowl push. What I didn't expect was Beane to gut the roster and start rebuilding. There are three specific moves that I will point to, which prove that Beane is building for 2025 and not this upcoming season: 1) Only doing a partial restructure on Josh Allen's contract 2) Cutting Mitch Morse when he was still playing well 3) Trading Stefon Diggs for a pick next year without a specific plan to immediately replace his production Maybe Beane knows best and starting from scratch is really the best strategy for this organization. We can load up on young talent in this draft, watch them develop in 2024, clear a ton of cap space and hopefully everything will be ready to go again a year from now. Personally I think it's a mistake to waste a prime year of Josh Allen's career, and I find it depressing to take a step backwards when other franchises seem to keep it rolling season after season. I also think a lot of fans are currently in denial about where the current Bills roster stands.

If you listen to everything Brandon Beane says (and for a GM, he's usually pretty honest) in all his press conferences, you can get a pretty good idea what is going on. 1) He didn't have a lot of 1st Round grades this year. Although he won't say it explicitly, it's pretty clear they were all long gone by Pick #28. 2) He sees a lot of value in the 2nd-3rd Rounds this year, and thinks that's the place to load up. He really didn't want to part with their 2nd Rounder. 3) He was also ticked off at the NFL for taking away his 3rd Round comp pick, and was dead set on getting it back. 4) None of the players left on their board stood out enough to really care about moving down 4-5 spots. 5) Moving back 15-20 spots was too much. So if they go back again from 33, I only expect it to be a couple slots. 6) History also shows that if 1-2 players are on their board, he is not shy about trading to move up. And he won't trade down to risk losing them.

Pretend for a moment you aren't a Bills fan, and you are objectively looking at this roster from the outside. The team has quite obviously taken a step backwards at several key positions (Wide Receiver, Safety and Edge Rusher). Less talented players will now be expected to step into starting spots and play more snaps. At other positions, there is also less depth when the inevitable injuries happen (Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle). Not to mention the significant loss of leadership, with five longtime veterans walking out the door (Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde). The biggest remaining star on defense (Matt Milano) is returning from a major leg injury. Yes, there are still 4 months left until the start of the regular season. But I'm struggling to see the pathway where we can fill all these spots with guys who can make an impact in 2024. The veteran FA market has pretty much dried up, and we won't have cap space until June 1. The rookies who could have made an immediate Year 1 impact are already gone. This team wasn't good enough in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Can anyone honestly say this roster looks BETTER in 2024?

Not sure why people are wanting ANOTHER slot receiver in Ladd McConkey? The best receiver on our team is Khalil Shakir, who was a slot receiver last year. We added Curtis Samuel, who has mostly played slot receiver over the last few years. Our next best receiving options are Tight Ends. It's not always about getting the most talented guy. You need to have some variety on the team, so you can attack all parts of the field. The Bills have pretty much nobody on the team who can challenge defenses on the outside or down the field.

Josh Allen will be 28 years old when the season starts. The absolute prime of his career. Yes. There is a reasonable explanation for all of Brandon Beane's offseason moves. Why he surprisingly cut Mitch Morse (along with several other veterans). Why he decided not to restructure all of Allen's contract, and did almost nothing in Free Agency. Why he traded Stefon Diggs and took on tons of dead cap. Why he decided not to move up in the draft this year for a Top 3 receiver. And I'm sure many of the level-headed and conservative critics are applauding those moves. The problem is that ALL of Beane's decisions are geared to help us in 2025. But nothing has been done to give the Bills a better chance at winning the Super Bowl in 2024. Our roster is significantly weaker than any point in the last 3-4 seasons, with much less depth across the board. Can anyone honestly compare our talent level versus the Chiefs (again), Bengals, Texans, Ravens... or even the Jets, and think we will be a serious contender in the AFC this year? We only get so many cracks at this thing before Allen's best years are behind him, and we seem to be content punting away this upcoming season and reloading for the future. Maybe we can argue it was the "smartest" thing for the franchise. But personally, I think it's depressing.

There is a good argument for trading up. There is a good argument for trading down. History shows that (on average) higher picks have a much better success rate, and less chance at busting. History also shows you can still get elite players later, and more picks gives you more chances at getting it right. I'm torn on which strategy I think is best for the Buffalo Bills right now. On one hand, the team is severely lacking top level talent. If someone was to ask who the All-Pros were on this team over the last 3-4 years, that list would include Stefon Diggs, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde... all gone. Outside of Josh Allen, the only top guys we have left are Von Miller (who may be done) and Matt Milano (coming back from a major leg injury). The hope is that young talent like Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Tyrell Bernard, etc. will step into those roles. But it's hard to argue against making a bold move for a guy who many think can be a Top 5 guy in the NFL for the next decade. At the same time, trading up will almost certainly cost starting talent at other positions. We could use help on the Defensive Line and Safety, and less Day 2 picks makes it much tougher to address. We would also be putting all our eggs in one basket... which as many have pointed out, could turn out like Sammy Watkins. He was also supposed to be a star, and looked the part early. His career was derailed by foot injuries, which isn't something anyone can predict.

My gut feeling is that Brandon Beane is trading up. And possibly into the Top 10. Why? Because the Stefon Diggs trade only makes sense if there is a legitimate plan to replace his production THIS year. Otherwise, Beane is basically willing to go into one of Josh Allen's prime years with an inferior group of weapons around him... basically punting the season away in exchange for future cap space and a future pick. That doesn't sound like a wise plan for a team supposedly competing for a Super Bowl. Yes, this draft is very deep at Wide Receiver. But it's unlikely that anyone outside the Top 3 (or obtaining a veteran like Brandon Aiyuk or Tee Higgins) will be able to put a dent in the 100+ catches we got from him... at least as rookies. None of the benefits we received back (draft pick, cap space) will help make the Bills a better team in 2024. Unless we are using some of those future assets to acquire his replacement.

If the draft was a total crapshoot, the best strategy would be continually trading down (over and over and over) until you had 20-25 picks in the 6th & 7th Round. With 3x the selections of anyone on the rest of the NFL, your odds of success would drastically increase. Of course this idea is utter nonsense. Each draft season, everyone totally craps all over GMs and Scouts. We hear the stories of Tom Brady falling until the 6th Round, and JaMarcus Russell going first overall. And the moral of the story is that draft "experts" are actually total idiots, and are really just throwing darts at a board. The truth is, the scouting community does a very good job identifying which prospects have the greatest chance for success. It's not an exact science, and they have to consider a million different factors. How hard will this 22-year-old work after becoming a millionaire? How does his skillset fit into our scheme/system? Then you have injuries that can completely blow-up everything. Think about how many Quarterbacks are in all of college football. Yet 75% of the NFL's starting QBs were taken in the 1st Round and 90% were taken by the end of the 3rd Round. At the other two most premium positions (Edge Rusher and Left Tackle), over 50% of NFL starters are taken in the 1st Round. That doesn't happen if GMs/Scouts are just randomly guessing.