Are mock drafts worth it?

[The Red King]

Sorry, honest question.  Not looking to ruffle feathers.  I know draft speculation can be fun, and I'm all for it.  Thinking who a team might want in what round and all.  But mock drafts are all balanced on the head of a pin.  One team makes one unexpected move and the whole thing falls apart.  How accurate do they end up being, especially this early on?  It seems like an incredible amount of effort trying to get into the head of 32 GMs and understanding each team's needs, only to have the whole thing blow up on a single pick that doesn't go as predicted.

 

As I noted, I'm more interested in speculation such as, "Will the Bills go for a CB in round one or two?" and "What round should we nab a WR, and who's out there?".  That kind of stuff.  I mean, how accurate has any mock draft been in the past?  Have there been any that have actually been close to the actual draft they predicted?  I mean, there are a million of them, so I'm guessing I'm missing something.  To me it just seems too fragile to be worth the time and effort.  It would be like "Predict the first 10 offensive snaps for the Bills opening day."  It just takes one play not going as planned to completely invalidate the list from that point on.

 

So, why do people do them?  Again, not being nasty about it.  I'm honestly curious.

[BillsMafi$]

Nope. Fun to look at but after the top 5 most “experts” don’t have much right after the draft 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 minutes ago, The Red King said:

So, why do people do them?  Again, not being nasty about it.  I'm honestly curious.

So we can start numerous threads on TBD with multiple pages?🤷‍♂️

[Don Otreply]

In a word, No, 

[Chandler#81]

No. An absolute ridiculous waste of time as no one -repeat NO ONE is ever even closely accurate. Least of all amateurs. 
I never read a single mock draft EXCEPT the final mock by ‘Rastro’.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Mock drafts are click bait. That’s why people do like 5 now before the draft. Easy content.

 

Fans love it.

[Greg S]

No. The board never falls the way the "experts" think it will.

[Logic]

It depends on what you mean by "worth it".

Brandon Beane, for one, seems to think they have some worth.

He's spoken numerous times about how he assigns his staff each a team (or several) to pretend to be, has them thoroughly study each team's needs, contracts, etc, and then they go through multiple mock draft simulations. After 20 or 30 of them or whatever, they start to see patterns emerging. Perhaps a certain corner is always gone by pick 20, or a certain WR never makes it out of round 1, whatever. 

So as an exercise to game out different possibilities and to gather an aggregate of predictions and projections to help prognosticate how early or late guys may go...sure, it seems to have some value. Our own GM thinks so, anyway.
 
It also has value as pure FUN! One of my favorite parts of following the NFL is the roster building part of it. Maybe it's from growing up playing Tecmo Bowl and Madden, but I love doing mock offseasons, free agency signings, drafts, etc. It's just a really fun exercise that I do, well...just for fun. I don't fool myself into thinking I'll be "correct" -- even the best mock drafters rarely have a high hit rate. It's just a fun way to pass the time, exercise my brain, and get to know the draft prospects.

[junior]

Hasn't Beane said in years past that he gives his scouts teams to "draft" for, and they do countless mock drafts leading up to the real thing? I definitely feel like that was mentioned in some of the post-draft videos the team does. 

[NewEra]

Worth it? Depends on the individual.  
 

I haven’t done one. I’ll start messing around with it after I watch more tape of the prospects.  

[Special K]

12 minutes ago, The Red King said:

Sorry, honest question.  Not looking to ruffle feathers.  I know draft speculation can be fun, and I'm all for it.  Thinking who a team might want in what round and all.  But mock drafts are all balanced on the head of a pin.  One team makes one unexpected move and the whole thing falls apart.  How accurate do they end up being, especially this early on?  It seems like an incredible amount of effort trying to get into the head of 32 GMs and understanding each team's needs, only to have the whole thing blow up on a single pick that doesn't go as predicted.

 

As I noted, I'm more interested in speculation such as, "Will the Bills go for a CB in round one or two?" and "What round should we nab a WR, and who's out there?".  That kind of stuff.  I mean, how accurate has any mock draft been in the past?  Have there been any that have actually been close to the actual draft they predicted?  I mean, there are a million of them, so I'm guessing I'm missing something.  To me it just seems too fragile to be worth the time and effort.  It would be like "Predict the first 10 offensive snaps for the Bills opening day."  It just takes one play not going as planned to completely invalidate the list from that point on.

 

So, why do people do them?  Again, not being nasty about it.  I'm honestly curious.

 

Mock drafts are more opinions than predictions. The opinions of the mock maker rarely  match the opinions of the teams because the teams are working with much more information about the draft prospects and about their own particular team.

 

To me, they are just something fun to do to pass the time between FA and the draft.

[Rc2catch]

It’s easily one of my most hated things. The debate especially by amateurs of who is going to be good and who is not. Every year people parrot what they hear like “Trevor Lawrence is a generational talent” and argue why he will be so good. Very few come back and say yeah that’s not the rookie year I expected from him. Granted it’s just a year in a mess of a franchise he can totally be great still. Nobody knows the behind the scenes stuff. We can blast Beane or whoever for not drafting a kid but none of us have the correct info. They know practice habits, life issues, baby momma drama etc etc.  I do like gunnerbills stuff on here and he’s one of the few who I have seen go back and point out his mistakes. I generally will keep an eye out on certain players I normally wouldn’t based on what I read on here, but I never seek out or follow any mock stuff. So it has its uses even for the haters like me. 

[CNY315]

Something fun to do on my break

[Simon Says]

OMG. For entertainment purposes only..worth as much as any football fan site 

[JimmyNoodles]

They're not great for trying to figure exactly who will pick who once you get past the early picks.  However, I think they have value for seeing where players fall in relation to one another.  On a similar note, Every year I print out a copy of the big board rankings with 300 (or whatever it is) players and, broadly speaking, the players tend to get selected in that pattern by rounds.  I might track the first three rounds or so before I give up and concentrate on 🍺   

[Buftex]

Not enough time in the day

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

Do you play the lottery? About the same chance of getting it right. But still fun do dream. So if I get 1 right, I feel like I won.😁. For some of us (me), I like them because I don't really watch college ball. It gives me a reason to research players, see who else people mention for additional research. All in all for some of us older fans, I think they are good and keeps us busy. Kind of like a hobby this time of year.😉

[wppete]

No but they are a lot of fun to do. 

[MJS]

Worth what, exactly? They are worth about as much as someone is willing to put stock in them, I guess, but they should only be used as a fun distraction, not for anything else.

 

The people mock drafting have no knowledge of how teams are ranking or evaluating players. They have no knowledge of how trades might change things. It really is just throwing darts at a dart board.

[Don Otreply]

Then you get teams like the Raiders…, look at their drafts, mocks don’t necessarily work for the pros, 😁👍

 

 

I’m thinking it’s the hair cut…

[msw2112]

I personally don't have the time and inclination to do mock drafts.  Maybe after I retire, but that's a long ways away.  If folks enjoy doing it, go for it.  I occasionally learn something about a team or a prospect from reading information related to a mock draft, so thanks to those who invest the time. 

[corta765]

If you have fun with it, get something out of it, find it to be a nice distraction, or a host of other reasons that a mock draft makes your day then yep.

 

I read them but don't put much stock into it. No one really knows until draft night, but it is a fun read for 5 minutes.

[Augie]

48 minutes ago, Greg S said:

No. The board never falls the way the "experts" think it will.

 

They are never correct, but the one positive is that it’s a way for me to start learning about these college guys. That’s all I got, but it helps me get ready for the draft reading the mocks. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

No. It's a time sink. Mock drafts are there for dudes to flex their egos. Most of the time they get it wrong anyway.

[todd]

Very few people not working directly in PRO football know what they are talking about. It is just people repeating what they read somewhere, probably without verifying if it is accurate. But that's understandable because very few people have the skills (or the time) to watch film and evaluate the number of players that might be drafted. Some people have fun with it, and think they know what they are talking about, but don't really. I love to see who the Bills get, but other than that I don't waste time with the draft. I just don't have the time to waste.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, The Red King said:

Sorry, honest question.  Not looking to ruffle feathers.  I know draft speculation can be fun, and I'm all for it.  Thinking who a team might want in what round and all.  But mock drafts are all balanced on the head of a pin.  One team makes one unexpected move and the whole thing falls apart.  How accurate do they end up being, especially this early on?  It seems like an incredible amount of effort trying to get into the head of 32 GMs and understanding each team's needs, only to have the whole thing blow up on a single pick that doesn't go as predicted.

 

As I noted, I'm more interested in speculation such as, "Will the Bills go for a CB in round one or two?" and "What round should we nab a WR, and who's out there?".  That kind of stuff.  I mean, how accurate has any mock draft been in the past?  Have there been any that have actually been close to the actual draft they predicted?  I mean, there are a million of them, so I'm guessing I'm missing something.  To me it just seems too fragile to be worth the time and effort.  It would be like "Predict the first 10 offensive snaps for the Bills opening day."  It just takes one play not going as planned to completely invalidate the list from that point on.

 

So, why do people do them?  Again, not being nasty about it.  I'm honestly curious.

 

Top 10 of the draft Mocks are relatively accurate in terms of which players will go.  Maybe not always the right team, a single trade up can shift all that, but I would say they usually hit 7+ most years, even seen years where the top 10 were basically what most mocks expected.  

 

Outside the top 10 it starts getting much more inaccurate though, especially in years where there was a lot of trade ups (usually QB rich drafts).  

 

Most valuable thing about Mocks for me is it gets me looking at players maybe I didn't know enough about.  I especially like learning about some of the smaller school guys, and mocks can help identify which ones to pay attention to more.  Also helps get a general idea of which players or even just what positions might be our best choices when we are on the clock.  

 

Outside of that, I wouldn't suggest putting much stock in them.  

 

 

[BMWR100RT]

No. Luckily the Sabres get me past this maddening time of year.  

[dwight in philly]

no

[nedboy7]

I would pay $100 for a random mock but not a cent more. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

It depends on what you mean by "worth it".

Brandon Beane, for one, seems to think they have some worth.

He's spoken numerous times about how he assigns his staff each a team (or several) to pretend to be, has them thoroughly study each team's needs, contracts, etc, and then they go through multiple mock draft simulations. After 20 or 30 of them or whatever, they start to see patterns emerging. Perhaps a certain corner is always gone by pick 20, or a certain WR never makes it out of round 1, whatever. 

So as an exercise to game out different possibilities and to gather an aggregate of predictions and projections to help prognosticate how early or late guys may go...sure, it seems to have some value. Our own GM thinks so, anyway.
 
It also has value as pure FUN! One of my favorite parts of following the NFL is the roster building part of it. Maybe it's from growing up playing Tecmo Bowl and Madden, but I love doing mock offseasons, free agency signings, drafts, etc. It's just a really fun exercise that I do, well...just for fun. I don't fool myself into thinking I'll be "correct" -- even the best mock drafters rarely have a high hit rate. It's just a fun way to pass the time, exercise my brain, and get to know the draft prospects.

 

So I mainly do them 'cos I enjoy it. It is a hobby.

 

But where it helps is working scenarios through and thinking about the sorts of players that might be on the board for the Bills. I am not saying my mocks are anywhere near as accurate as the ones the Bills FO do, but you do generally get a sense of the players that could be around for the Bills in rounds 1 and 2. 

 

If you look at the players I mocked to the Bills last year in my attempts - Newsome and Etienne - they both went right in that range, and I had us missing on Greg by one pick. 

[First Round Bust]

its the offseason and its keeping the barnyard animals fed with  quality "content" which is the root of your question.  Enjoy or criticize or both daily.

 

We all have our more trusted-valid-most favored sources and  mine is:

 

Dane Brugler from the Athletic will be relasing  "The Beast" soon - a culmination of several months of outstanding scouting, analysis and ranking by position of several hundred prospects including those that he considers UDFA.  He does mock drafts as well but The Beast is not round-oriented as it is just pure stats, strengths and weaknesses...

 

 

[jamiezzz]

In my opinion, mocks are a waste of time.  Click bait for these writers, or whomever.  If you're into it, go have fun with it, but none of these people have a clue.  They go based on needs.  IMO don't waste your time.

[billybrew1]

The mock drafts that have us taking CBs and OLs might be worth it…

[mannc]

Since they are almost all free, I would say they are most definitely “worth it”.

[WotAGuy]

Every time I see a mock draft I do a shot. 

[Aussie Joe]

I have totally tuned out to mock drafts so far this offseason…

 

The ones that occur before free agency  are certainly a complete waste of time in my view..

 

But now that FA is all but over… I might start doing a bit of research before the draft…not much else NFL wise  happening …

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[Bill from NYC]

Worth it? Not sure what you mean by "it?" 

 

The mock that @Virgildoes is lots of fun. I enjoy being the GM of a team and seeing if I did better (or worse) than the actual GM. Then again, I have the time to do this. 

 

As far as mocks in the media go, sometimes the people making these mocks know little to nothing about the Bills team needs, but I don't let it upset me.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, The Red King said:

Sorry, honest question.  Not looking to ruffle feathers.  I know draft speculation can be fun, and I'm all for it.  Thinking who a team might want in what round and all.  But mock drafts are all balanced on the head of a pin.  One team makes one unexpected move and the whole thing falls apart.  How accurate do they end up being, especially this early on?  It seems like an incredible amount of effort trying to get into the head of 32 GMs and understanding each team's needs, only to have the whole thing blow up on a single pick that doesn't go as predicted.

 

As I noted, I'm more interested in speculation such as, "Will the Bills go for a CB in round one or two?" and "What round should we nab a WR, and who's out there?".  That kind of stuff.  I mean, how accurate has any mock draft been in the past?  Have there been any that have actually been close to the actual draft they predicted?  I mean, there are a million of them, so I'm guessing I'm missing something.  To me it just seems too fragile to be worth the time and effort.  It would be like "Predict the first 10 offensive snaps for the Bills opening day."  It just takes one play not going as planned to completely invalidate the list from that point on.

 

So, why do people do them?  Again, not being nasty about it.  I'm honestly curious.

People do them to have something football related to talk about this time of year.  They are pretty worthless until just before the draft.  There are other things to be gleaned from research that goes into a draft class, however.  For example, this is a pretty poor DT draft class.  The Bills recognized that and made filling their needs at DT a priority in FA.

 

There was a writer for Dallas’ paper that usually had the best mock.  He only did one and it was always right before the draft.  He was pretty dialed in with NFL FOs though.  I just can’t remember his name or find it easily via Google. 
 

They are useful to teams too.  They can get a feel for how to react if the real draft breaks one way or another.  They can also determine which other teams are likely to be interested in the same prospects as they are.  Accuracy varies widely, obviously. Here is a link to a site that tracks mock draft accuracy.

 

[Shake_My_Head]

They are to advertisers.

[RobbRiddick]

mock drafts are like marriage.

 

 

 

(my wife has hair like Mel Kiper)