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Raheem Blackshear Overreaction/Hype


jwhit34

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Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a tradition unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

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Joique Bell!!!

 

He had a lot of potential. Had some nice years with Detroit too. 
 

Blackshear has some great speed and a nice cut. Not sure he would be serviceable as a blocker or on ST.

 

I always want to go with youth, but it’s hard to think about letting Duke Johnson go, in favor of Blackshear. We could also be overhyping him to think he won’t be on the PS. 

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I agree with the OP... If Blackshear makes the cut he will be 4th or 5th on the depth chart.

Yes Blackshear has shown something against borderline 2nd stringers/3rd stringrers and cut candidates. It may be enough to squeak in those last spots... 

I do not see the Bills even entertaining the thoughts of ditching Singletary, Moss, or Cook for Blackshear

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13 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

Stop presenting these comparisons in a logical fashion, you’re gonna burst a lot of bubbles here, 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

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While I appreciate the breakdown, the point of bringing in guys like Blackshear is to see what they can do. He’s certainly looked the part in both talent and heart. He may not make THIS team but he definitely didn’t blow the audition. Not sure what else he would’ve done in two weeks under the lights. And, while a walk on, it’s not like he went to a D3 school. I’m rooting for the kid. He showed me a ton when he was desperate to get back on the field after getting dinged against the Colts. My two cents.

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2 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Joique Bell was a first ballot August Hall of Famer for us.

Bell did make an NFL roster.
 

It’s going to be hard for Blackshear to make the Bills roster. The question is will he make any NFL roster? Most teams have a player like Blackshear that they’ll cut. I think it’s unlikely he’ll make a roster week 1. 

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5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

My money is on he is getting cut, will not be claimed and will be on the Bills PS.

 

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/RB

 

Thats a lot of running backs.  Pretty much everyone in the 5th column will be cut candidates.  You have to really like a player you've never really met, to cut one of your own to bring him in.  Especially a 1st year UDFA.  I'd expect it to more likely happen mid-season when someone needs a fill in player for a few weeks if they were to do it at all.  

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bell did make an NFL roster.
 

It’s going to be hard for Blackshear to make the Bills roster. The question is will he make any NFL roster? Most teams have a player like Blackshear that they’ll cut. I think it’s unlikely he’ll make a roster week 1. 

 

He was on the Bills PS, then signed to the eagles active roster, then waived to likely go to PS, then claimed by Indy, then released and back with the eagles.  Then he was on the saints for a playoff run.  Then waived.. and signed with the saints again on the PS.  

 

So... he did sign some non-PS NFL contracts his first year.  He didn't really play at all until 2 years later in 2012.  

 

Cool story when you read it though, he went to wayne state and was security at the Lions training camp, then went on to have his best years of his career there.  

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28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

While I appreciate the breakdown, the point of bringing in guys like Blackshear is to see what they can do. He’s certainly looked the part in both talent and heart. He may not make THIS team but he definitely didn’t blow the audition. Not sure what else he would’ve done in two weeks under the lights. And, while a walk on, it’s not like he went to a D3 school. I’m rooting for the kid. He showed me a ton when he was desperate to get back on the field after getting dinged against the Colts. My two cents.



I agree Blackshear defintely raised some eyebrows.... But like I said above he is not surplanting our top 3 RBs... he's in the conversation for 4th RB spot for sure, but odds are more in favor of PS

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44 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

 

 

I'd also add..........if you are ever going to take a chance at cutting the wrong guy then RB is the position to do it.

 

They aren't truly a dime a dozen any longer because you rarely see the best athletes play the position anymore........it's just the undersized guys who can't play any other position or the bigger guys without the hips to play in the secondary or hands to be a receiver........but the supply still FAR exceeds the demand because there just is not a lot that RB's are able to do under the rules of the game today to alter the impact of games.

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5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd also add..........if you are ever going to take a chance at cutting the wrong guy then RB is the position to do it.

 

They aren't truly a dime a dozen any longer because you rarely see the best athletes play the position anymore........it's just the undersized guys who can't play any other position or the bigger guys without the hips to play in the secondary or hands to be a receiver........but the supply still FAR exceeds the demand because there just is not a lot that RB's are able to do under the rules of the game today to alter the impact of games.

 

Good running back 4.5 YPC

Bad running back 3.9 YPC

 

.6 YPC over 100 carries is 60 yards.  Over 200 thats 120 yards.  

 

Getting that extra .6 YPC is one long run.  Or just being used in different situations.  Job-share running backs run into the issue of one guy being short yardage, or pass catching, etc.  So the short yardage guy may have more TDs per touch but a low yards per carry.  Pass catcher might see light boxes.  Some offenses feature really good offensive lines or fullbacks and TEs that really open up holes.  

 

I think Blackshear's ceiling is probably someone like Duke Johnson.  We are cutting Duke Johnson too.  

 

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Better back than Duke Johnson.  And Duke is good.   Duke has shown straight ahead, good yard.  Blackshear is a bit shiftier, cuts better.  
 

Listen, Blackshear may not make the 53.  Most likely won’t.  Moss is back to his old form so 1 and 2 are locked.  Cook ain’t going anywhere.  Probably hit PS if both Duke and him are waived.  Kid can hone his craft there and who knows, maybe learn ST’s.

 

We can protect 4 PS players per week, no limit to how many times the same guy gets protected.  If he ends up elsewhere, wish him well.  In Beane I trust, so if the dude is here, great, if not, that’s fine.

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5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Good running back 4.5 YPC

Bad running back 3.9 YPC

 

.6 YPC over 100 carries is 60 yards.  Over 200 thats 120 yards.  

 

Getting that extra .6 YPC is one long run.  Or just being used in different situations.  Job-share running backs run into the issue of one guy being short yardage, or pass catching, etc.  So the short yardage guy may have more TDs per touch but a low yards per carry.  Pass catcher might see light boxes.  Some offenses feature really good offensive lines or fullbacks and TEs that really open up holes.  

 

I think Blackshear's ceiling is probably someone like Duke Johnson.  We are cutting Duke Johnson too.  

 

 

Yeah those numbers are about right..........but average ones are super easy to find.......it's not like there are only two options.

 

Where the rubber meets the road is in the receiving aspect and throwing the ball to a slot receiver is almost always MUCH more productive than tossing it to even the best receiving RB.    It's not a fraction of yard difference.......it's multiple yards.   That's why the 3rd down back is basically extinct and it really limits the potential impact of a guy like James Cook as well.

 

As for Blackshear......Duke Johnson would be a great ceiling for him........but it might be a lot to ask given his very modest college career production.

 

Duke has been an above average runner(4.3 when league average carry in general is 4.2) and he has actually been one of the more productive receivers you will see from RB position..........his career 9.2 yp reception is notably higher than either of the receiving "fantasy RB Gods" named Kamara and McCaffrey.   Duke is the perfect example of how easy that kind of talent is to find at RB though.........and the fact that teams eventually come to the realization that it's better to just throw the ball to the slot receiver and get the extra yardage.......so they tend to usually end up in good supply in free agency even if they are notably above average.   

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intersting to hear McDermott mention the juice he brings to the units....it's finding a place for him 

 

The Bills carry ST only people Jones Kumerow Malakevich...... do they drop one to make room for him... Ithink the Hodgins decision may be the one that puts him on the PS but man has he made the most of his opportunities both from the RB spot and on kick returns

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1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah those numbers are about right..........but average ones are super easy to find.......it's not like there are only two options.

 

Where the rubber meets the road is in the receiving aspect and throwing the ball to a slot receiver is almost always MUCH more productive than tossing it to even the best receiving RB.    It's not a fraction of yard difference.......it's multiple yards.   That's why the 3rd down back is basically extinct and it really limits the potential impact of a guy like James Cook as well.

 

As for Blackshear......Duke Johnson would be a great ceiling for him........but it might be a lot to ask given his very modest college career production.

 

Duke has been an above average runner(4.3 when league average carry in general is 4.2) and he has actually been one of the more productive receivers you will see from RB position..........his career 9.2 yp reception is notably higher than either of the receiving "fantasy RB Gods" named Kamara and McCaffrey.   Duke is the perfect example of how easy that kind of talent is to find at RB though.........and the fact that teams eventually come to the realization that it's better to just throw the ball to the slot receiver and get the extra yardage.......so they tend to usually end up in good supply in free agency even if they are notably above average.   

 

I agree on slot WR throws vs. designed RB plays.  But being able to have a dynamic RB receiver out of the backfield can help dictate a lot of what the defense is able to do.  If they play man coverage on cook with a linebacker its going to be a problem, if they are in a deep set cover 3 or cover 2 then he can turn nothing into like 8-10 yards really easily.  It's maximizing the checkdown, and creating a mismatch that forces the defense to adjust.  

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

intersting to hear McDermott mention the juice he brings to the units....it's finding a place for him 

 

The Bills carry ST only people Jones Kumerow Malakevich...... do they drop one to make room for him... Ithink the Hodgins decision may be the one that puts him on the PS but man has he made the most of his opportunities both from the RB spot and on kick returns

 

I'd rather have Hodgins than Blackshear if we're keeping a player on the 53 for potential.  WRs are harder to find, especially with size and hands.  Gives him a chance to continue to work on his route running, and learning how to play bigger and more physical.  

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2 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

The problem with this argument is…

 

1. He Doesn't need to be more accomplished than Devin Singletary 

 

2. He doesn’t need to be more powerful or effective in short yardage than Zack Moss. 
 

3. He doesn’t need to be faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook. 
 

he just needs to be better at all of those things than Taiwan Jones. And he is 100%

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1 hour ago, davefan66 said:

Better back than Duke Johnson.  And Duke is good.   Duke has shown straight ahead, good yard.  Blackshear is a bit shiftier, cuts better.  
 

Listen, Blackshear may not make the 53.  Most likely won’t.  Moss is back to his old form so 1 and 2 are locked.  Cook ain’t going anywhere.  Probably hit PS if both Duke and him are waived.  Kid can hone his craft there and who knows, maybe learn ST’s.

 

We can protect 4 PS players per week, no limit to how many times the same guy gets protected.  If he ends up elsewhere, wish him well.  In Beane I trust, so if the dude is here, great, if not, that’s fine.

I dont think they can designate someone as protected right away. Once they cut him I think he is free to sign on any PS or be claimed to a roster. 

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2 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a tradition unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

I think Bills fans are worried it will be ANOTHER team's practice squad.

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6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I dont think they can designate someone as protected right away. Once they cut him I think he is free to sign on any PS or be claimed to a roster. 

 Correct, once any player hits the PS they can be protected weekly.  Not saying he would.  And yes, have to clear waivers to get to PS.

 

Feel it’s a good bet he’d clear waivers.

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2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Stop presenting these comparisons in a logical fashion, you’re gonna burst a lot of bubbles here, 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

Agreed logic has no place here. Shame on the OP for the attempt😂

 

With that said I liked what saw with Blackshear and would like him on the PS.  Could see him moving to the 53 if we get the injury bug at RB, and maybe breaking out.   And yeah it’s a good story too

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3 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a tradition unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

  • He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
  • He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
  • He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

  • He is not better than Taiwan Jones
  • He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

I agree that there really isn't a clear space for him on the roster, but he's been much better as an all-around player than fan favorites of the past that you mention above.  And he isn't just a face in the crowd compared to the rest of the preseason soon to be trash heap RBs.  He's leading RBs in TDs, 5th in scrimmage yards and 3rd in all purpose yards.  GMs will notice and he'll be poached and that's probably okay. I'm not one that says he has to be kept over a core special teams player or needed reserve linebacker or whatever.  I understand you can't keep everyone.  I just don't agree with pouring water on the guy's performance to psychologically protect ourselves from disappointment when the guy gets cut.  He's been darn good, plain and simple.

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38 minutes ago, mrags said:

The problem with this argument is…

 

1. He Doesn't need to be more accomplished than Devin Singletary 

 

2. He doesn’t need to be more powerful or effective in short yardage than Zack Moss. 
 

3. He doesn’t need to be faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook. 
 

he just needs to be better at all of those things than Taiwan Jones. And he is 100%

 

He may be better than Taiwan at running or catching the ball, but he's not better than Taiwan at special teams play. Taiwan is very, very good at that. And that's what Blackshear would be called upon to do this year, barring at least 2 injuries to RBs.

 

Can't see the Bills coaches giving up Taiwan's excellent ST play for someone who is better than him at something he most likely will never be called upon to do.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

He may be better than Taiwan at running or catching the ball, but he's not better than Taiwan at special teams play. Taiwan is very, very good at that. And that's what Blackshear would be called upon to do this year, barring at least 2 injuries to RBs.

 

Can't see the Bills coaches giving up Taiwan's excellent ST play for someone who is better than him at something he most likely will never be called upon to do.

 

Ugh.

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3 hours ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

I always want to go with youth, but it’s hard to think about letting Duke Johnson go, in favor of Blackshear. We could also be overhyping him to think he won’t be on the PS. 

 

I can't imagine Duke Johnson makes this roster. I think it's between Blackshear and Moss. And Blackshear will end up cut and hopefully in the PS.

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As much as I like him... and in a perfect world, maybe we trade Singletary and roll with Moss/Cook/Blackshear (They all fit our offense better than Singletary)... The Bills aren't doing that. 

 

Singletary is a better RB, more proven and the Bills trust him.  He's put in his time and the Bills likely want to get that contract year production from him before we go our separate ways in the offseason.  

 

If Blackshear doesn't make it to the PS, there will be guys like him available on Day 3 next year.  

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1 hour ago, mrags said:

The problem with this argument is…

 

1. He Doesn't need to be more accomplished than Devin Singletary 

 

2. He doesn’t need to be more powerful or effective in short yardage than Zack Moss. 
 

3. He doesn’t need to be faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook. 
 

he just needs to be better at all of those things than Taiwan Jones. And he is 100%

 

Not following your logic train here.  Taiwan Jones is 1005 on the team as a ST gunner.  When he's had his chances to contribute on offense he's squibbed.  So Blackshear would need to be better at ST to oust Taiwan Jones.

 

The Elephant in the Room that neither you nor the guy you're responding to mentioned is the RB's critical role in pass protection.  How is Blackshear there?

 

3 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

I can't imagine Duke Johnson makes this roster. I think it's between Blackshear and Moss. And Blackshear will end up cut and hopefully in the PS.

 

There has been media speculation (Buscaglia I think?  Maybe Parrino?) that the Bills may try to trade Moss

 

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

Ugh.

 

Green Bay

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