Article: Will Josh Allen regress in 2021?

[JohnNord]

Matthew Fairburn recently wrote an article exploring whether Josh Allen would regress next year.  
 

He tried to explore a number of different statistics and Next-Gen stars to contemplate whether Allen is poised to regress next year.

 

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression, as it might be hard for Allen to duplicate the numbers from his monster 2020 season, but that it’s unlikely he returns to his 2019 form.  According to him, Josh is likely to fall between his performance in 2019 and 2020.   The article isn’t necessarily negative, but it questions whether we should expect the improvement we’ve seen the past two year.
 

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  
 

To add to the complexity, it’s rare to find a situation where a QB (especially in the first 3 seasons) to retain nearly all of his coaching staff and offensive personnel.  
 

While the outlook is sensible, Allen has always found a way of falling outside the data-driven projections from analysts.  Let’s hope it happens again in 2021!  
 

https://theathletic.com/2798162/2021/09/06/will-buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-regress-in-2021/?source=user_shared_article

[Wizard]

I think many people, including me, can get caught up in the word, "regression" because of the excitement of putting up "fantasy numbers."

 

I don't see any actual regression in Josh's game. I think the team will run a little more for balance. I think the defense may improve and provide shorter fields for the offense to work with.

 

He is going to be a perennial pro bowl/all pro candidate. And, as long as the roster builds depth and mainstays remain on team over time, Bills will be a top 2-top 8 team yearly over the next decade.

 

 

[Scott7975]

I don't think he is going to regress in his play.  If anything I expect him to get better in decisions.  Nothing like the jump from last year, but I think the kid mentally has it as well and will only get better in that sense.  

 

It's not like he did anything flukey or got lucky.  He wasn't really up and down over the season.  Just better and better.  I don't really believe players like that regress to some mean unless they just get lazy.  We all know Josh isn't lazy.

[billsfan1959]

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

[Maynard]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

I believe Josh loves the doubters. 

[mannc]

Why would he get anything but better, just as he has each year? Why assume that a 24-year old QB in his third professional season has peaked?  Why are people always overthinking this stuff?

[Green Lightning]

Big concern. For example Mahomes, hasn't won the MVP in 2 years and didn't win SB last year -- an obvious regression. With fans back in the stands making noise, Josh won't be able to function, I read it on the Internet. Suddenly, the Bills' future looks bleak. 

[LeGOATski]

The most concerning question still looming: is Josh gonna pull a Carson Wentz?

 

I'm sure Eagles fans talked about Wentz the same way we're talking about Allen. 

 

I tend to believe Josh will be one of the GOATs, but time will tell.

[Bangarang]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

The article wasn’t doubting Allen. 

[K-9]

As if less statistical success automatically equals a regression. Just a ridiculously shallow take. Josh Allen could put up less numbers and STILL improve as a QB over last season. 

[H2o]

The answer is no. 

[Doc]

Mahomes "regressed" after his 2nd (1st starting) season.  When you have an amazing season, it's hard to surpass it.

[Success]

I'm actually more excited about seeing where & how he improves. 

 

The trajectory is clear. I think he's only going to get better.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Matthew Fairburn recently wrote an article exploring whether Josh Allen would regress next year.  
 

He tried to explore a number of different statistics and Next-Gen stars to contemplate whether Allen is poised to regress next year.

 

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression, as it might be hard for Allen to duplicate the numbers from his monster 2020 season, but that it’s unlikely he returns to his 2019 form.  According to him, Josh is likely to fall between his performance in 2019 and 2020.   The article isn’t necessarily negative, but it questions whether we should expect the improvement we’ve seen the past two year.
 

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  
 

To add to the complexity, it’s rare to find a situation where a QB (especially in the first 3 seasons) to retain nearly all of his coaching staff and offensive personnel.  
 

While the outlook is sensible, Allen has always found a way of falling outside the data-driven projections from analysts.  Let’s hope it happens again in 2021!  
 

https://theathletic.com/2798162/2021/09/06/will-buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-regress-in-2021/?source=user_shared_article

 

I think Fairburn is conflating, or at least failing to clearly distinguish between two different usages of the term "regression"

 

There's "regression" in the statistical sense, "regression to the mean", where a player's outlier statistical performance (say, Barry Bonds hitting 73 HR in 2001) is followed by a return to something closer to more typical numbers of his career (45-46 HR) - which while still good, are not jaw-dropping.

 

Then there's a very common usage meaning something like “returning to a former less developed state.” ....... if a good player gets worse, they can be said to have regressed. That is, their talent has declined."

 

To the former, in Football, there are all kinds of reasons for this type of regression having little to do with the player himself: change of scheme to something less conducive to high numbers; loss of supporting cast that enabled the great results; change in the way other teams defend him, requiring a change in offensive approach; change in other aspects of our team which enable a change in strategy.

 

We know that the first two aren't in play for Josh barring injury. 

 

Other teams are absolutely going to change how they defend us, and then the question is "will it help them, or will we succeed anyway?"  Then, last year our D early on showed it could squander a 25 point lead, so the O had better keep the pedal to the metal and go balls-out.  If our D is more effective at shutting other teams down and we're more effective at running the ball, playing "possession football" be an effective game-closing strategy for us and would cut down passing numbers.

 

To the latter, it's happened before that a player has a "Wonderboy" season that constitutes an anomaly in his career.  I think there's nothing anomalous about last year's season for Josh, I think it was progress driven by fiendishly hard work, and represents "getting a lot better at football" that is unlikely to regress.  Time Will Tell.

 

We as fans get annoyed by people who use the statistical definition because we feel they're using the talent-decline definition

[PromoTheRobot]

There's regressing, then there's not having to do it all yourself. If the defense and running game step up, Josh won't have to sling the ball as much. Relax.

[MJS]

No, I expect Josh to have a better season in terms of yards and TD's, but I expect his completion percentage and other efficiency metrics to remain about the same or only slightly improve.

 

Allen is still a QB on the rise. The Bills have a much easier schedule this year and face easier QB's. I expect Allen to tear it up this year.

 

It's not like Allen threw for 5,000 yards and 50 TD's last year. If he had, I'd say we would likely see a regression, but he could beat his numbers from last year, especially with the extra game. He could also fumble it less and throw a couple fewer INT's.

[Solomon Grundy]

The Bills upgraded his receiving corp. Motor upgraded to synthetic from conventional oil. Josh spent the off season working on his perceived weaknesses. How can he regress?? 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think he may regress statistically a little bit (not in total given the added game, but on the average) just because last year was so good, but that does not mean the Bills will do worse.

[HappyDays]

I read the article this morning and found it weird that they didn't even once mention how his supporting cast got better year over year. You'd think for an article focusing on context driven performance they would have brought that up. Allen went from having a historically bad supporting cast to a middling supporting cast to a really good supporting cast. He of course improved on his own too, but adding a true #1 WR to the offense last year combined with his personal progression led to the historical leap in production. If you put Mahomes in the 2018 Bills offense of course he would appear to regress. The Bills if anything improved the supporting cast again this year, and Allen didn't make a living on fluke plays last year, so I don't see a path to regression that doesn't involve injury.

[Mat68]

Regression?  So Allen will play worst than last year?  Better weapons this year.  No confusion in what the team wants to do.  Buffalo will pass more on first down and second down than any team in the league.  That is the best time to pass.  Its the more effective way to play.  The oline plays better with a healthy Felicano and Ford and that will help the running game.  I dont expect Allen to play much better, but his numbers will be about the same or more. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Define Regression 

 

 

Less passing yds does not = regression 

[JohnNord]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Fairburn is conflating, or at least failing to clearly distinguish between two different usages of the term "regression"

 

There's "regression" in the statistical sense, "regression to the mean", where a player's outlier statistical performance (say, Barry Bonds hitting 73 HR in 2001) is followed by a return to something closer to more typical numbers of his career (45-46 HR) - which while still good, are not jaw-dropping.

 

Then there's a very common usage meaning something like “returning to a former less developed state.” ....... if a good player gets worse, they can be said to have regressed. That is, their talent has declined."

 

To the former, in Football, there are all kinds of reasons for this type of regression having little to do with the player himself: change of scheme to something less conducive to high numbers; loss of supporting cast that enabled the great results; change in the way other teams defend him, requiring a change in offensive approach; change in other aspects of our team which enable a change in strategy.

 

We know that the first two aren't in play for Josh barring injury. 

 

Other teams are absolutely going to change how they defend us, and then the question is "will it help them, or will we succeed anyway?"  Then, last year our D early on showed it could squander a 25 point lead, so the O had better keep the pedal to the metal and go balls-out.  If our D is more effective at shutting other teams down and we're more effective at running the ball, playing "possession football" be an effective game-closing strategy for us and would cut down passing numbers.

 

To the latter, it's happened before that a player has a "Wonderboy" season that constitutes an anomaly in his career.  I think there's nothing anomalous about last year's season for Josh, I think it was progress driven by fiendishly hard work, and represents "getting a lot better at football" that is unlikely to regress.  Time Will Tell.

 

We as fans get annoyed by people who use the statistical definition because we feel they're using the talent-decline definition

I feel this article has been written so many different times over the past 4 years.  
 

The problem with using historical NFL data to predict performance is that Allen is such a unique athlete in terms of traits, experience, and now organizational continuity.

First he was going to be Jarmarcus Russell, then Blake Bortles, then Mitch Trubisky, now Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.  We’ve seen that his career has not followed the patterns of any QB’s he’s been compared to.  At least not yet.  
 

 

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

I read the article this morning and found it weird that they didn't even once mention how his supporting cast got better year over year. You'd think for an article focusing on context driven performance they would have brought that up. Allen went from having a historically bad supporting cast to a middling supporting cast to a really good supporting cast. He of course improved on his own too, but adding a true #1 WR to the offense last year combined with his personal progression led to the historical leap in production. If you put Mahomes in the 2018 Bills offense of course he would appear to regress. The Bills if anything improved the supporting cast again this year, and Allen didn't make a living on fluke plays last year, so I don't see a path to regression that doesn't involve injury.

I agree.  90% of people that watch football dont understand   Qb production is also dependent on weapons they throw to.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Wizard said:

I think many people, including me, can get caught up in the word, "regression" because of the excitement of putting up "fantasy numbers."

 

I don't see any actual regression in Josh's game. I think the team will run a little more for balance. I think the defense may improve and provide shorter fields for the offense to work with.

 

He is going to be a perennial pro bowl/all pro candidate. And, as long as the roster builds depth and mainstays remain on team over time, Bills will be a top 2-top 8 team yearly over the next decade.

 

 

Good analysis. All along Josh was projected to have the lowest floor and the highest ceiling. I just don't think he's quite reached that ceiling yet.

[Scott7975]

9 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Regression?  So Allen will play worst than last year?  Better weapons this year.  No confusion in what the team wants to do.  Buffalo will pass more on first down and second down than any team in the league.  That is the best time to pass.  Its the more effective way to play.  The oline plays better with a healthy Felicano and Ford and that will help the running game.  I dont expect Allen to play much better, but his numbers will be about the same or more. 

 

Definitely.  I seen a quote in an article, don't remember by who but it said... "It's much easier to pass on 1st and 10 than it is on 3rd and 8."  So true.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Why would he get anything but better, just as he has each year? Why assume that a 24-year old QB in his third professional season has peaked?  Why are people always overthinking this stuff?

Its not overthinking. As Josh enters his fourth professional season someone just made the observation that QB statistics rarely progress in a straight line. In Josh's case, I expect them to hockey stick further upward as he destroys all records and leads the Bills to a Super Bowl victory. 

[SirAndrew]

I’m actually surprised by the number of people who think Allen will regress statistically. He put up huge numbers last year, so it’s very possible he might “regress”, but not a given. Josh was asked carry to the team, but that’s going to be his role. I don’t understand the idea that he won’t need to carry the team as much. 

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Definitely.  I seen a quote in an article, don't remember by who but it said... "It's much easier to pass on 1st and 10 than it is on 3rd and 8."  So true.

Warren Sharp talks about it all the time.  Defenses and Defensive coaches are taught to stop the run on first down from pee wee.  Defenses are set up to do so.  

[TPS]

This is another good piece on dissecting Allen's development, though couched in whether or not he'll "regress."  The thing that sticks out to me is his discussion about expecting teams to play zone and make him take the easy throws in long, methodical drives.  We're going to see if he's matured to that next level of being patient and taking what's given. 

 

As for regressing, if the metric is his stats, I don't think Fairburn adequately compared last year's schedule to this year's. Based on ESPN's team D rankings by PPG fpr 2020, the Bills and Allen will face more games in 2021 against last year's top 10 Ds.  They play 10 games against those teams vs 7 last year; based on Schein's ranking, they play 5 this year vs 4 last year (if you adjust to 16 games and take WFT out, then it's 9 vs 7).  The point: yes, it's possible Allen will regress statistically, but, IF he does, it will most likely be due to facing a first place schedule.  Personally, I believe he is continuing to get better and better, and he will be better this year, though it might not show up in his personal stats being better than last year's stats (adjusting for an extra game).

 

NFL Team Defense Rankings 2020 (Top 10)

PPG

Rams

Ravens

Steelers

WFT

Saints

Miami

Pats

Bucs

Giants

Colts/Chiefs (tied)

 

2020:    7/16 games

 

2021:    10/17 games

 

 

[BuffaloBob]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

The Bills upgraded his receiving corp. Motor upgraded to synthetic from conventional oil. Josh spent the off season working on his perceived weaknesses. How can he regress?? 

Josh will not regress in his play because he won’t let himself. He has in is head a whole bunch of cheat codes for himself. If he sees some things dipping below his expectations, he knows exactly what is causing them (or he will quickly figure it out) and how to get himself back on track. 
 

In my humble opinion based on my observations of him and how he operates. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by BuffaloBob

[eball]

Allen is going to continue to improve, in both his decision making and his intelligence with respect to what he sees on defense.  There is literally no reason to believe otherwise.  Fairburn just needs to provide content for his employer.

 

The question isn't whether Josh will regress.  The question is just how high is his ceiling.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2021 by eball

[oldmanfan]

I see no reason why he’d regress.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I see no reason why he’d regress.

There is none

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression, as it might be hard for Allen to duplicate the numbers from his monster 2020 season, but that it’s unlikely he returns to his 2019 form.  According to him, Josh is likely to fall between his performance in 2019 and 2020.   The article isn’t necessarily negative, but it questions whether we should expect the improvement we’ve seen the past two year.

 

This is honestly what I'd expect. 

I don't think he'll hit the same statistical highs, but he'll still improve overall as a signal caller. Hopefully the offense has a better run game this year, so that alone might reduce his overall numbers, but I still think his football IQ will continue to get better.

 

He'll get better recognizing defenses, feel more comfortable making adjustments at the line, and he'll get rid of the ball quicker. He'll likely feel less pressure to hang on to the ball for too long, always wanting to make a big play. 

 

So as a whole, he'll be a more efficient & intelligent QB, while still being the playmaker we need when necessary.

[hondo in seattle]

Statisticians like to talk about 'regression to the mean.'  When a player has a killer season - like when OJ rushed for 2,000 yards in 1973 - it's unlikely he'll repeat or better that.  He's more likely to perform in a more average way the following season.

 

But football isn't just about numbers, trends, and patterns.  It's about flesh-and-blood players.  Unlike the OJ example where his skill set had already reached it's zenith, Josh seems to still be learning and growing.  I expect him to be a somewhat better overall QB this year than last.   A little better at reading defenses... a little more composed in the pocket...  a more wise & mature leader...

 

As others have said, if Allen's stats regress in any way it'll only be because of injury to Josh or other key offensive players.

 

 

[loedward22]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Matthew Fairburn recently wrote an article exploring whether Josh Allen would regress next year.  
 

He tried to explore a number of different statistics and Next-Gen stars to contemplate whether Allen is poised to regress next year.

 

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression...

 

It seems to me that statistics being used to project Josh Allen's future have been wrong the overwhelming majority of the time.  

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

Its just nonsense, no one who actually pays attention to Allens play over the last three years really thinks this will happen, it is just a story to get more eyes on his site. Plus its just more fuel for the fire, 

 

Go Bills!!!

[ColoradoBills]

It seems to me from what I seen during camp and the GB game is that Allen has worked on his hot reads and getting the ball out of

his hands quickly if needed.  Teams wanting to blitz him may find this quite unnerving.  Also seemed to work on the swing pass and

screens.  If he improves on these aspects he will be a DC headache.  He also seems to have learned to throw the ball down at the

feet of a RB/TE if the OL fails badly thus avoiding those "sugar high" plays.

 

Seems like a lot of the things he needed to work on got worked on this offseason.

 

I guess I'm one of the few who thinks his passes per game will increase.

[BuffaloBills1998]

Regress as in struggle?? I doubt it. He will continue to get better and pick up where he left off last year. Now if our running game picks up the way it did in the pre season then I could see his numbers drop off some due to us having success in the ground game. But ultimately that’s IF the running game kicks it in second gear during the regular season

Edited September 6, 2021 by BuffaloBills1998

[Turf Toejam 34]

In some respects, what I saw from the (limited) snaps in the GB game is that he readily understands the need for him to keep healthy.    Its better to take a sack and protect himself on an early down as he has the tools to convert a 10 plus yards third down.   I also really hope that Daboll has cooked up a bunch of special plays to sprinkle in during the season that will show JA's growth as a quarterback and as a leader.    The throw to Davis in the end zone was crazy, and showed the faith they have in Josh's arm to get them out of any situation.    Going to be a fun year!

Edited September 6, 2021 by Turf Toejam 34