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Hapless Bills Fan

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About Hapless Bills Fan

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    "you cannot fight what you cannot see" - Roger Klein

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  1. What has to be understood, is that the people doing the modeling are asked to consider a number of different inputs and assumptions. They make their models accordingly, stating the assumptions that go into each model clearly. Then leaders and politicians choose which model they wish to publicize, but don't always state the assumptions upon which the model is based, clearly. So, for example, if the model publicized assumes a 50% reduction in transmission due to social distancing, but people take it so seriously that we actually achieve a 75% reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the model is seen as "wrong" - but there is probably a model out there which started with different assumptions, and would match what actually happened much better.
  2. Is it through the roof, or isn't it? That's really the unknown question, and it makes a HUGE difference to accurately forecasting what will happen when social distancing is relaxed. China early on said 1-2% asymptomatic. Now they're saying more. S. Korea, which I believe most people place more faith in than in China, says 20% asymptomatic. Iceland says 50%. Town of Vo, Italy, more like 30-50% asymptomatic or presymptomatic. We badly need widespread serology testing to determine this.
  3. So because you haven't personally seen or heard, you think everything is hunky dunky? Unless you are a critical care physician or nurse or RT, Cuomo has said that they're splitting ventilators, they're using anesthesia machines as ventilators, they're using CPAP/BIPAPs as ventilators. Two of those 3 things are distinctly sub-optimal practices for patient recovery. They aren't doing these things because they're not critically short. Personally, if I'm a hospital that's running short, I'm not jabbering to the news media, I'm using all my time and energy to solve the problem. Now I'm going off to kowtow to my spouse, I was told that if we averted catastrophy by stringent social distancing, instead of being all "yea! the social distancing and stuff worked" people would be all blame-y about the models fortelling the need being incorrect. I poo-poo'd that. You're exhibit A of my need for heartfelt apology.
  4. University of Texas group takes a look at the chances that even 1 positive case in a county indicates community spread is underway: https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/cid/files/covid-risk-maps_counties_4.3.2020.pdf?m=1585958755&fbclid=IwAR3xoK7HG6WvIrdYMfC0zwswIf7ePb-qGo9FXR8JbXDWdOfaPSlZi-rAwlQ Without a coordinated state or federal response to COVID-19 across the United States,counties are left to weigh the potentially large yet unseen threat of COVID-19 with theeconomic and societal costs of enacting strict social distancing measures. Theimmediate and long-term risk of the virus can be difficult to grasp, given the lack ofhistorical precedent and that many cases go undetected. We calculated the risk thatthere already is sustained community transmission that has not yet been detected.Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that one in ten cases aretested and reported. If a county has detected only one case of COVID-19, there is a 51%chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway. COVID-19 is likely spreadingin 72% of all counties in the US, containing 94% of the national population. Proactivesocial distancing, even before two cases are confirmed, is prudent
  5. Eh, here's the paper: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 Basically the operative word is "MAY". Their argument seems to be that other human coronaviruses that cause common cold are seasonal and tail off at the end of April, so this one will too. But there is no new evidence offered on that point. They make a case for relative humidity - the amount of water vapor in the air, vs the amount the air can hold at that temperature - which is low in heated environments in winter - as a factor impacting virus viability and ability to spread - and they review a bunch of research on that point, but none of that research is on covid-19
  6. Really good explanation from virologist Peter Kolchinsky of why covid-19 is a harder beast to fight than SARS was. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1246975275021348865.html?fbclid=IwAR0fbXN74tI4gmZETIgRhNSuuk5KCEh3X0lG90w0Rnf9bjNx0IdoFvqOclE "Well, the ACE2 doorknob that SARS-1 & SARS-2 use is present on a variety of cells, including those in our lungs & throat. SARS-1 would enter a person via a droplet in the air (from cough) & quickly start infecting lung cells, causing severe damage person could really feel (i.e. become symptomatic). In other words, SARS-1 quickly made its presence known. In some patients, SARS-1 would go into the upper airways to replicate from where it could spread to others with a cough (or just breathing). But b/c SARS-1 patients got very sick from all the virus replicating in their lungs, they were quarantined before others got close enough to get sneezed or coughed on. SARS-2, on the other hand, takes up residence in the throat cells first, which doesn’t cause significant symptoms. The person can remain asymptomatic or might not think they have anything worse than a cold. And from that person’s throat it can readily spread to others. Over the course of a week, in some patients, it will move into the lung neighborhood and replicate just as SARS-1 would, causing severe symptoms, by which point the person is quarantined, but no matter since it had successfully spread." "So SARS-1 was a comparatively dumb virus. It went straight for the lungs, announced itself before it could spread to others, and so got social distanced into extinction. " "But SAR-2, the one plaguing us now, is stealthier, spreading first before revealing itself (and causing harm). What’s the take-away for all of us? It’s that beating this virus means social distancing & wearing masks even if we think we aren’t infected. Because we might be. The virus might be replicating in our throats without us knowing (that’s its evil plan!), so put up a roadblock. " Nature publication about study this info is based upon: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x
  7. Just found this article in Sports Illustrated, thought it was worth sharing https://www.si.com/more-sports/2020/04/06/effects-of-coronavirus-on-athletes-bodies?utm_source=facebook.com&xid=socialflow_facebook_si&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sportsillustrated&fbclid=IwAR2rIeSG0mxypM0SISQbnlYVqQo7HOptu0PxumseUL-4NHnUCapOm9GTOys That is really one restriction they should relax right now, if it's still in place. Anyone know?
  8. It's an experimental drug for treatment of the covid-19 diseases. There is anecdotal evidence (open, non-blinded, small studies) that it may work, primarily (French study) 92% MILDLY ill people There is a small blinded study of seriously ill patients from China just published that showed no effect. Hydroxycholorquine has side effects ranging from serious to unpleasant. Cardiotoxicity is the most serious. Diarrhea is the most common. If you have really sick people who already have abnormal heart rhythms, this may not be helpful (that's understated). This may be a good place to put this: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html The problem is that it isn't clear it's not going to hurt people. Chloroquine has a known number of side effects, some serious. You don't want to give it to people on ventilators, unless you know it helps. It also is not in infinite supply right now. I know it won't happen but Trump should say "I'm not a doctor" and stop there. I would think autopsies would stop for the duration? I'm surprised this doesn't happen.
  9. I feel ya. We have a Samoyed. In case unfamiliar (not our dog, but a close match in appearance). She looks like a smiling cotton puff. EVERYONE wants to pet her - and she has a sunny, friendly disposition. Her answer to the question "may I pet your dog?" is always "Why YES! YES! CERTAINLY!" Now I feel the same way - if someone is infectious, they might pass the virus to her; if we are infected and don't know it, she might be harboring the virus and pass it to them. It's done at a different location, by an animal testing facility. But yeah, test kits haven't been limiting for a while, now it's protective clothing for the testers, nasal swabs, and sometimes equipment to run the tests.
  10. Yowza! That's not a whine, that's a legit serious issue. Best wishes for your full recovery.
  11. They only tested one tiger because they put it under general anesthesia before putting a swab up its nose or whatever they do How do we know? These are the first big cats known to be infected.
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