This exactly.
I think the debate suffers from" the devil we know vs the devil we don't."
Reminds me of a search committee I was on where the final two candidates were and insider and an outsider, the committee went with the "fresh" outsider because people knew the little issues with the insider. Two years later, the choice was a disaster for the program, and the insider went on to head a very successful program elsewhere. That said, in this case, and as you state, we won't know the answer until a year from now.