Article: Will Josh Allen regress in 2021?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If he learns to use the checkdown he will shatter single season records.

 

[Rico]

I doubt anyone is going to be talking about any regression after 4 PM this Sunday.

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The article wasn’t doubting Allen. 

 

Conclusion from the article: 

 

Quote

Statistically, this all suggests that Allen is due for some regression but not likely to fall back into his 2019 performance level.

 

I read the article. Like I said, I have no idea why this is even a topic.

[The Dean]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Fairburn is conflating, or at least failing to clearly distinguish between two different usages of the term "regression"

 

There's "regression" in the statistical sense, "regression to the mean", where a player's outlier statistical performance (say, Barry Bonds hitting 73 HR in 2001) is followed by a return to something closer to more typical numbers of his career (45-46 HR) - which while still good, are not jaw-dropping.

 

Then there's a very common usage meaning something like “returning to a former less developed state.” ....... if a good player gets worse, they can be said to have regressed. That is, their talent has declined."

 

To the former, in Football, there are all kinds of reasons for this type of regression having little to do with the player himself: change of scheme to something less conducive to high numbers; loss of supporting cast that enabled the great results; change in the way other teams defend him, requiring a change in offensive approach; change in other aspects of our team which enable a change in strategy.

 

We know that the first two aren't in play for Josh barring injury. 

 

 

 

I think the only way Josh "regresses" is if he (or significant members of the offense) get injured. 

 

5 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Define Regression 

 

 

Less Fewer passing yds does not = regression 

 

Only if you care about Fantasy Football stats. HE won't regress, but his numbers might. As long as they are winning, I don't care at all. 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Conclusion from the article: 

 

 

I read the article. Like I said, I have no idea why this is even a topic.

 

Writers need clicks.  Josh is a glitch in the Matrix.  He generates clicks.

[Ralonzo]

10 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  

 

In terms of actual game reps vs high level competition Allen is probably the equivalent of a power-5 guy having just finished his first full NFL season. There had been a fairly linear ascent so far and no inflection points. There's been increasing wow each year, but still a lot of upside owing to unprecedented traits. I'm expecting 2021 > 2020 for those reasons.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

I am starting to get the sense that McDermott is going to put the pedal down every time unless playing a particular opponent requires differently for some reason.  I don’t know why, I am just getting that feeling when I hear him talk about not being your typical HC from the defensive coordinator background.  
 

There was one game last year they came out and threw like 25 passes and 1 run starting off.  That’s some serious trust in your QB.  McD knows what they have and he ain’t shy about using it.

[NewEra]

34-27 Bills

[LeGOATski]

Don't be surprised if a couple Allen turnovers keep the Steelers in the game. It's just who he is right now. I don't think he's totally cleaned that up.

 

Then all the talking heads will regurgitate this "regression" talk. But it's simply Josh being who he's always been. 

[The Wiz]

If you have a season like he did it's almost impossible not to regress.

 

As long as the stuff that matters stays the same. 

 

Is he doesn't regress, you're looking at the mvp.

[GoBills808]

He’s going to be better

[JujuFish]

8 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I’m actually surprised by the number of people who think Allen will regress statistically. He put up huge numbers last year, so it’s very possible he might “regress”, but not a given. Josh was asked carry to the team, but that’s going to be his role. I don’t understand the idea that he won’t need to carry the team as much. 

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

[SirAndrew]

6 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

I agree, I definitely didn’t say it’s impossible to see a stat decline. I guess I’m more surprised that people think he’ll carry less of the load. We have an elite QB, elite QB’s are asked to carry the team in the modern NFL. He might regress statistically, but I think he’ll get every opportunity to sling the ball around again this season. 

[SirAndrew]

58 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Don't be surprised if a couple Allen turnovers keep the Steelers in the game. It's just who he is right now. I don't think he's totally cleaned that up.

 

Then all the talking heads will regurgitate this "regression" talk. But it's simply Josh being who he's always been. 

I was harsh on his recklessness after the Houston playoff loss. I wasn’t convinced he’d ever be able to overcome the destructive plays. I thought I saw a different player last season. He made mistakes, but no more than any other elite QB. Allen threw ten picks last season, while the Super Bowl champ Brady threw twelve. There’s always the possibility that his gambler mentality will get him in trouble, but the numbers aren’t indicative of a QB who makes excess mistakes. I really don’t expect a turnover extravaganza opening day. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by SirAndrew

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

Other than, you know, the very logical and very reasonable measures that show he’s improved every year like clockwork.

[RiotAct]

it’s very possible.  As long as our defense progresses, however, we’re still a 12-14 win team.

[mannc]

2 hours ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

No one said it’s impossible; but there is certainly no reason to think it’s likely.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

 

It has to do (IMO) with people using two different definitions of "regression" as I outlined above.

 

People don't believe he will regress in the "returning to a former less developed state...talent has declined" sense.  I think most people understand he could decline in the statistical "regression to the mean" sense, especially if we have a better run game and run more, or if defenses play us in a way that forces him to dink and dunk more.

[machine gun kelly]

Statistically maybe as we use the running game slightly more, or the defense plays back to 18-19 standards, but his play will do nothing but improve.  I really don’t care what his next gen stats predicts.  Allen has been beating this crap for his career.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

"Regression" definition is so subjective and some idiot sports "reporter" will find a way to make that case no matter what just to get clicks in the off-season.  We all know someone will.  Personally I think he'll be even more accurate and throw for more total yards than last year, which is a lofty proposition.  Having Sanders over John Brown will help tremendously.  

 

And like many others have stated before me here, JA is not like any other QB out there now, nor ever before really.  He's already shown clearly that the usual blanket assumptions about other QB's (like you are either accurate or you're not - looking at you Troy Aikman) simply will not apply to him.  The trajectory arrow still points up.  He had a great year, but look at what Mahomes did the MVP season.  No reason at all JA17 can't get at least close to that himself.  He showed some just ridiculously amazing ability last year so many times.  We'll see even more of that this year.

 

[HOUSE]

I think I will just watch the games first then answer this question later

 

 

[Greg S]

Over the next 15 years or so Allen will have years where his numbers go up and down. Brady, Manning, Rodgers have had that happen to them. Honestly it might not be a bad thing if Allen's numbers decline if that means the running game has improved. Last year was Allen throwing all the time. That's not necessarily a good thing. For example if the Bills are up by 10 in the 4th quarter and there is 5 or 6 minutes left in the game, I want to see the Bills run the dam ball. Force the other team to use their timeouts or run out the clock. 

[eball]

14 hours ago, Rico said:

I doubt anyone is going to be talking about any regression after 4 PM this Sunday.

 

Oh, they will…the Pittsburgh press will be all over Big Ben’s regression…

[colin]

well, given how he was one aaron rogers away from being the mvp, and the team only had their season ended in the afc chip game (granted, it wasn't a good contest), there is a pretty solid chance, just by the law of large numbers, that this next season will not be as astronomically good for allen (stats) or the team (wins).  the idea that a player must be monotonically non-decreasing in his performance as measured by what are essentially fantasy football statistics or else he has actually regressed in his ability is pretty nerdy and out of touch with reality.  it also shows how sabremetrics and fantasy stuff has made people think of football as some kind of video game simulation and i think has them missing the forest for the trees.

 

i remember when rothlessburger started his first season, and the team went 15-1 (i think i might not have played in the losing game, and he didn't play when they beat us and kept us out of the playoffs).  on the nfl network a bunch of people were talking about if rothlessburger will have a better season, rod woodson was fairly adamant that no he would not, but it doesn't matter because they just have to focus their team more for the playoffs.  after brief confusion, one of the network people pointed out how he didnt' have that many yards and whatever, and woodson says "oh, you mean like stats wise?  better stats?  ya sure." with a look of "why does this matter?" on his face.  in woodson's mind, your regular season is what gets you in the best position for the playoffs, and 15-1 is about as good as it gets.  while i do think allen will have some shocking and potentially record breaking stats this year (17 games, less preseason, all things seem to be lining up) for me it just comes down to how we do when we get to the tourney, and im pretty sure that's what is on the players and coaches minds too.

[loyal2dagame]

10 hours ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

I was equally surprised by the number of people that thought Allen wouldn't amount to anything, that he was an inaccurate passer, and that Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield would be better.......

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

I was equally surprised by the number of people that thought Allen wouldn't amount to anything, that he was an inaccurate passer, and that Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield would be better.......

 

At the time of the draft I was hoping the Bills would take Rosen. Thankfully Beane knows what he is doing and doesn't listen (not that he ever would) to clueless fans like me.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I personally think he will be better this year barring key injuries. Better O-line Better depth, Better WR’s, Better RB’s and Better Defense.

[mannc]

22 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

The most concerning question still looming: is Josh gonna pull a Carson Wentz?

 

I'm sure Eagles fans talked about Wentz the same way we're talking about Allen. 

 

I tend to believe Josh will be one of the GOATs, but time will tell.

Wentz never had a season like JA in 2020.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Greg S said:

Over the next 15 years or so Allen will have years where his numbers go up and down. Brady, Manning, Rodgers have had that happen to them. Honestly it might not be a bad thing if Allen's numbers decline if that means the running game has improved. Last year was Allen throwing all the time. That's not necessarily a good thing. For example if the Bills are up by 10 in the 4th quarter and there is 5 or 6 minutes left in the game, I want to see the Bills run the dam ball. Force the other team to use their timeouts or run out the clock. 

 

They still have to burn their timeouts when Josh is completing passes. 

[Greg S]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They still have to burn their timeouts when Josh is completing passes. 

 

True but why risk an incomplete pass. I realize the offense is built around Josh and it is a passing league but there are times when you need to run the ball.

[RichRiderBills]

22 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

The most concerning question still looming: is Josh gonna pull a Carson Wentz?

 

I'm sure Eagles fans talked about Wentz the same way we're talking about Allen. 

 

I tend to believe Josh will be one of the GOATs, but time will tell.

 

Wentz never had as complete a year as Allen in 2020. In fact, Allen has been fairly consistant for about 20-25 games. 

 

Wentz had like 8 good games. 

[LeGOATski]

26 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wentz never had a season like JA in 2020.

No one said he did. Nevertheless, the perception is the same.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

True but why risk an incomplete pass. I realize the offense is built around Josh and it is a passing league but there are times when you need to run the ball.

 

They have run a game or two out the last couple of years but they can also seal a game passing. They are that efficient on offense. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

No one said he did. Nevertheless, the perception is the same.

Wentz is a headcase. He simply can’t process and make decisions with the football.  He took 50 sacks last year in only 12 games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I personally think he will be better this year barring key injuries. Better O-line Better depth, Better WR’s, Better RB’s and Better Defense.

 

I'm a bit puzzled by this, because we have the same OL players as last year starting on OL (not at the same time, I grant).

We have the same WR bar swapping Sanders for Brown, which because of Sanders age many pundits overlook

We have the same starting RBs

 

So how can all these things be assumed to be better?

 

We hope they're better.  We hope the guys we're starting are our "best guys" and playing at their best positions on OL

We hope Sanders is an upgrade, and that Davis and McKenzie have both taken a step and Kumerow is an upgrade over Roberts at #6

We hope Motor has revved up

 

But in the end, those are only predictions, not certainties

[LeGOATski]

12 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I was harsh on his recklessness after the Houston playoff loss. I wasn’t convinced he’d ever be able to overcome the destructive plays. I thought I saw a different player last season. He made mistakes, but no more than any other elite QB. Allen threw ten picks last season, while the Super Bowl champ Brady threw twelve. There’s always the possibility that his gambler mentality will get him in trouble, but the numbers aren’t indicative of a QB who makes excess mistakes. I really don’t expect a turnover extravaganza opening day. 

And he fumbled 9 times, lost 6, while Brady lost 1. It was 2 lost fumbles that kept the Jets in the game the first week last year. He had a stretch of 4 games where he fumbled 5 times.

 

I don't expect him to regress overall, but like I said, the turnover tendency is still a part of his game that will keep the haters hating.

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wentz is a headcase. He simply can’t process and make decisions with the football.  He took 50 sacks last year in only 12 games.

Cool... are you counting this as some kind of refute or.....?

[ColoradoBills]

Well the season is starting in 2 more days and I find it interesting that Mayfield and Jackson have not signed extensions.

Will that make them PROgress or REgress?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Wentz never had as complete a year as Allen in 2020. In fact, Allen has been fairly consistant for about 20-25 games.

Wentz had like 8 good games. 

 

Wentz had 13 games in 2017 where he was playing at a very very high level indeed.

He had a good season (not as good) in 2018 and again in 2019 - maybe even better

 

The Wheels didn't fall off until last season, when Don Peterson fired his OC and decided to Do It Himself

Now, whether the wheels can be bolted back on re-uniting him with the HC he had success with as an OC, remains to be seen

 

There's this idea now that Wentz was never good, or only good for a flash-in-the-pan, I don't think that's true.

 

But there is stuff out there about how he was perhaps given a "rockstar" status by Roseman and allowed to move away from taking "hard coaching"

 

To me what The Curious Case of Carson Wentz implies is that it doesn't matter how much talent a QB comes in with or how well he plays, if he stops working full-bore on his craft and stops working in the right way, things can go downhill fast.

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

32 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Cool... are you counting this as some kind of refute or.....?

Relax…not directed at you…just a measure of what a basket case Wentz has become.  I can’t believe Indy gave up what they did for him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

And he fumbled 9 times, lost 6, while Brady lost 1. It was 2 lost fumbles that kept the Jets in the game the first week last year. He had a stretch of 4 games where he fumbled 5 times.

 

I don't expect him to regress overall, but like I said, the turnover tendency is still a part of his game that will keep the haters hating.

 

There are fumbles and fumbles.  There are fumbles where he is running with the ball, and stays up and gets stripped.  Those are bad.

 

There are fumbles where he's strip-sacked.  When Aaron Donald is allowed to horse-collar a QB in the pocket and spin him into the ground, or where Allen's protectors totally whiff on a block and let him get blindsided by Judon, a certain number of those are inevitable

 

But people bin them as though they're the same.

 

I think a deeper dive would show that Allen's fumbles have moved towards the latter predominating and away from the former (which used to predominate).