hondo in seattle

1975 was a great year. OJ had been running all over the place since his breakout year in 1972. But in 1973, when OJ rushed for over 2,000 yards, Joe Ferguson threw less than 1,000 yards despite starting every game. Fergie's job was to hand off the ball. Our offense was OJ, all day, all the time. But in 1975, Fergie started coming into his own and led the NFL in TD passes while OJ led in both rushing yards and TDs.

Funny, I have a very different opinion. It seems to me Hamlin understands the scheme and knows where he needs to be. But he just doesn't have the athleticism to excel.

With 32 teams, the average NFL teams have a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The best teams have a more-or-less 10% chance. The Bills are one of those teams again this year. Sadly, the Chiefs defy the odds with their improbable combination of luck, a good GM, good offensive head coach, good defensive coordinator, and HOF QB.

The optimistic and cheerful folks get excited by any signing. The rest of us are happy when a weak position group gets some depth. Forrester played reasonably well when fully healthy. He won't make us forget Hyde or Poyer but he does make a weak group a little less weak. When you're close to being a SB contender, any little improvement is a cause for excitement, IMHO.

Maybe you have a good point. But right now, we have 4, maybe 5, high-quality backups (Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest, Hancock?). We lack quality starters, and they aren't going to be found in the garbage bin of UDFAs. You don't often see DTs run fake punts! Not your typical camp body.

Bledsoe played one good half-season with us. If Josh got hurt, Bledsoe would be the guy I'd want to come in - assuming he played at the same level as the first 8 or 9 games of 2002. But as a backup, I'd want Fitz. He's a great teammate. He'd be super supportive of Josh and the entire team. He's also smart. In the QB room, and on the sidelines, he'd have some great conversations with Josh that would help elevate Josh's game. And if Fitz had to come in, he'd execute the game plan and give us a chance to win.

Here's your answer from the lips of Dawson Knox... "The dude's been playing on a torn PCL in one leg and then his other knee - he doesn't even know what's wrong with it because he hasn't had it scanned yet, but it's got so much fluid in it. Like, it's insane what he has played through... the selfless nature it takes to be able to put your body on the line for your team even when you got a torn PCL in one knee and the other knee don't even know what's wrong with it, but it's messed up too..."

Setting aside the pros and cons of signing him, do we really need another Gabe Davis thread?

I'm not entirely sure who our starters will be, but we'll have excellent backups (#4, #5, and maybe #6). I still think Brady can get better at how he schemes a downfield passing attack. In any case, we scored a lot of points last year despite our shortcomings. We should again this year.

This is a hard exercise because we have to read Brady's mind and guess how he'll use these guys. And I know from how often I disappoint my wife, I'm a terrible mind reader. But here goes... 1. Shakir 2. Palmer 3. Moore 4. Kincaid 5. Coleman 6. Knox 7. Samuel As I am so often with my wife, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong with this.

Am I suffering from some kind of bias when I remember Gabe this way (see below)? - Hard worker, good dude in the locker room, willing blocker. - Not on the same page as Josh, which suggests Gabe made bad decisions on choice routes. - Possesses neither great moves nor speed. When he got open deep, it was often because a DB made a mistake (sometimes because Josh was running around improvising, looking like he was about to get sacked). - Opposing DBs said Gabe was easy to cover because he ran a limited route tree. I guess there'd be no harm in bringing him back for the vet minimum. Competition is never a bad thing, but I wouldn't be any kind of excited.

I hope you're right. I remember when Jairus Byrd had 9 picks in his rookie year. Some Bills fans thought he was an emerging superstar with a remarkable nose for the ball. I thought he was lucky - often in the wrong place but coming up with a pick anyway because of a funky deflection. Byrd only averaged 2 picks per year for the rest of his career. Sometimes TOs are like that. Recent history... The Bills led the league in TO differential last year. The 2023 leader, the Ravens, finished in the top five again in 2024. The 49ers led the league in 2022 but only finished +0 the following year. I hope we follow Baltimore's example, not San Francisco's.

Yeah, Bill, we disagree because I do believe Beane has the final say but neither one of us is in a position to prove our case. At least, I'm not. It would be cool, though, if we could embed ourselves into OBD a week before the draft, sit in all the meetings, and hang out in the war room when the picks are made. Maybe when I win the lottery, I'll buy a big enough stake in the Bills that Terry allows us both inside the building.

I wonder why you see those signatures when I don't see them at all. I think Beane's telling the truth when he says he takes input from McD and his coaches, as well as his own scouts, and then makes the picks based on the totality of that information. Which sounds very sensible. The final decision - and accountability - lies with Beane.

Sadly, you're right. Last season we were +24 in turnover differential. But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year. To give an example, one analyst wrote: "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year." In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year. footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/ harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/