hondo in seattle

Yep. I stopped 3 minutes in.

That stat about the SB doesn't prove that Everyone Eats is a failure. It could just mean that it's hard to win a SB without a good receiver. And that makes sense, 2 out every 3 yards in the NFL comes from passing. So it's important to have a good passing attack. And if you have a good passing attack, you probably have a wideout getting over 1,000 yards. But not necessarily. You can have a good passing attack spreading the ball around too. In the past 10 years, 70% of teams had a 1,000-yard receiver. But about 62% of all teams in the NFL over the past 10 years have had a thousand-yard NFL receiver. By chance, you'd expect 6 of 10 NFL winners to have a 1,000 yard guy. In fact, we've had 7. That delta of one isn't statistically significant. I will agree that finishing 15th in passing yards is not where we want to be, especially when have Josh Allen at QB. But does this mean "Everyone Eats" is a failure? Or does it mean our wideouts sucked? Or does it mean Brady uses elementary passing schemes as some analysts have contended? I think that's an open question.

As a kid, I remember seeing him play for the Cowboys when he and Roger Staubach shared duties. For whatever little kid reason, I rooted for Morton to win the job outright. RIP.

There are some similarities but... Reed is a HOFer. Shakir may someday visit the HOF as a tourist. Jerry Rice said Reed was the best receiver in the AFC. No equally credible source is saying the same about Shakir. Reed earned 7 straight Pro Bowls. Shakir's earned none. Reed earned two All-Pro nods. Shakir's earned none. Reed had 36 100+ yard games. Shakir's had none. Reed had The Comeback. Shakir hasn't (yet?) produced an equally impressive signature game. Shakir's average depth of target is 3.4 yards. Reed could threaten the entire field. We all hope Shakir blossoms and starts breaking Reed's Bills records. Right now, however, my imagination just isn't up to the task of foreseeing that.

I was disappointed by McD's firing and think some people undervalued him. Yet, I'm not expecting a huge backward step. I think Brady will probably keep the good culture alive. And with Carmichael on the staff, maybe the offense gets better. Carmichael seems to have a better idea on how to get wideouts open than Brady. It helps we'll have better wideouts this year. I do worry a bit about the defense. As a defensive coach, McD was an average-ish X-and-O guy who did a good job preparing his unit and getting them to hustle and play together as a team. Maybe Leonhard shares all of McD's strengths but is better at schemes and game plans. Then again, maybe not. After all, as the defensive pass game coordinator for Denver last year, Leonhard ranked lower than McD in pass defense. I don't think he's the boy genius some others imagine him to be. So, overall, I'm guessing the coaching staff is probably roughly equal to last year's, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse, maybe a lot worse if both rookie leaders - Brady and Leonhard - fail in their new roles.

I don't disagree with a word you wrote. But not having the playmakers seems to show up every playoffs. Other playoff teams have multiple Pro Bowl-type guys who make plays for them when the lights are shining. We have Josh. And if Josh has a bad game a la Denver, we're toast. I'm glad Beane eventually built a good OL to protect Josh and make the offense two-dimensional by opening up holes for Cook. And I'm really rooting for Beane to find difference-makers at a variety of positions. I don't think we reach the SB until he does.

Interesting comparison. I think: Lofton is much better than DJ Moore Reed is easily better than Shakir Beebe is better than either S. Bell or Palmer 2026 TEs are better, though.

I understand the @GunnerBill argument. But given the Bills' luck, that one elite talent will probably get injured in Week 10 and miss the playoffs. Two pieces of wisdom my French mom taught me. 1) "Never put all your eggs in one basket." 2) "All sacks are equal." GB's wisdom points to #1. Mom's wisdom points to #3. I make a compromise and chose #2.

I haven't heard anyone say that Beane is the worst GM in history. What people do say is that since drafting Josh, Beane hasn't had enough success drafting playmakers. And who says the Bills have a top 3 roster? Austin Mock? Mock is just another guy with another opinion.

Maybe. But good front office executives are not. Then again, I don't know how good he is.

I'm not so sure... Around 15–20% of third‑round picks become solid multi‑year starters or better. About 25–40% become at least part‑time starters or significant rotational players at some point. Roughly 60–70% end up as backups, special teamers, or wash out fairly quickly (high “bust” rate). perthirtysix.com/essay/nfl-draft-expected-value-curve I'd rather have a good personnel guy who helps us build a strong roster than, for example, a backup linebacker.

Wow... so misogynistic. And the guy delivers it as if he genuinely believes what he's saying. Very funny, in an off-kilter sort of way.

10-7 I'm pretty confident they won't lose 20 games. Hard for me to imagine.

No doubt the D was bad that game. But was it bad because the scheme and playcalling was bad, or because they players on the field were bad? McD or Beane? When McD had Milano, Hyde & Poyer in their prime (all Whaley acquisitions), his defense ranked high. When the Whaley players aged out and McD had to field Beane's mediocre defenders, our defensive rankings dropped.

Because I only watch highlights of our draft picks, I have to confess my record of evaluating drafts isn't very good. Recognizing my own ineptitude, I try to remain neutral about drafts for a year or two. I think the Bills are one of the teams that could win the SB this year if the rookies contribute mightily, Leonhard is a better defensive coordinator than I think he'll be, Carmichael figures out how to scheme our wideouts open, and a bunch of other things. Unlike hockey where teams play best-of-seven, the NFL does one-and-done. And given the variables of football, the best team doesn't always win and move on to the next round. So there are a lot of teams that could conceivably make a playoff run with some luck. The Bills are one of them. I just don't think our chances are great, even if the Beane's had one of his better drafts. But I'm a fan. I live in hope. Why do you think this was a good draft? Was it good enough to get us over the hump?