hondo in seattle

As a homer, I love this. Thanks for posting. As a sceptic, I had to look up Brently Weisman. He's a former NFL scout. Hmm.

Shaw, I always value your opinion and you make a good point here. But imagine this scenario. Take the 20 best posters from TBD. Pay them enough so they quit their jobs and study football full time all year long. Send them to scouting seminars with America's best personnel guys. Give them access to an analytics department to provide them with good predictive data. Introduce them to, and give them the contact information for, 100 or so college coaches. Show them tape of every D1 college football game. Let them attend the combine. Have them interview players. If they want to fully vet a player, allow them to hire PIs. Give them an annual budget of $3 million or so to make all this happen. And with all that, you have the Bills personnel department. But you are right about the law of diminishing returns. And someone else brought up the idea of collective intelligence. Maybe no one Bills fan can draft better than Beane and his team. But maybe if we put together a team of the 500 smartest Bills draftniks, they could outperform Beane and his staff. I'm open minded to that idea. I just want and hope others to remain open-minded and humble. Some of the picks will turn out better (or worse) than we think.

I think Fred is woefully underrated by some. I watched him take handoffs, see no hole whatsoever, and still make a positive play. He led the NFL in Yards After Contact in 2011 with a YAC of 3.75. To put that in context, Christian McCaffrey had 2.2 YAC last year. No 2023 qualifier surpassed 2.7. It's easy to gain yards as RB when you have gaping holes to run through. Freddy was given lemons and made lemonade. Additionally, he was an all-around back who could catch out of the backfield and blocked really well. Obviously, he was also a high motor guy. When you combine skill set and effort, Jackson was a very good back. FYI...

The EJ Manuel pick was indeed perplexing. I do remember the remarks about his commanding presence. And comments about his big hands being an advantage in the cold winds of Buffalo. Big hands and a commanding presence aren't enough to make a great NFL QB. The focus on these traits didn't give anyone the impression Whaley did a good, holistic evaluation and I always wondered what the discussions were like among the Bills scouts. What were they collectively seeing? Or was Whaley the only one seeing it? Another perplexing one was Aaron Maybin and his one good college season, indifference toward football, and 'quick first step.' But let's say I sit down at a poker table in Vegas next to a professional poker player. I don't know squat about poker. But I'm smart enough to realize the pro is reading my tells. So I start sending false tells and win a hand. At that point, I'm thinking, "I just outsmarted a know-it-all, arrogant pro!" And I did! My native genius won out!!! Of course, by the end of the evening, he's humming a cheerful tune as I'm on the phone explaining to my wife how I lost our entire life savings. In the end, his mathematical calculations, ability to read opponents, and knowledge of poker strategy overwhelm my meager skill. Beane is like the professional poker player. Except he's not playing alone. He's got an entire team of experts in his ear buds. You and I can win a hand here or there but in the long run, the expertise and resources of the pros will win out. It's fun to second-guess and argue about picks but I'm confident that if Beane's picks were put against the average fan's or sportswriter's (picking in the same spots), Beane would come out ahead. It's only realism to acknowledge that the probability of Beane being right on any given pick is greater than mine. So, yeah, I'm concerned about Coleman's lack of speed and the shortcomings evident in other players we drafted. But I'm keeping an open mind until I see them play in a Bills uni.

Do "execs and coaches" include the Dolphins comptroller? The Dallas strength and conditioning coach? Seattle's scout for the Pacific Northwest? I like the idea of Sando soliciting opinions from subject matter experts. I just wish I knew who the sources were. I don't really care what San Francisco's DC, for example, thinks about Coleman because I doubt if he knows more about him than Kiper. Or the folks on TBD, for that matter. Does Sando tell us any more about his sources so we can have some sense of the quality of their opinions? If they're all GMs, assistant GMs, and national scouts, their evaluations would be valuable. Otherwise, I question their worthiness.

I respectfully disagree. As for my post being a defense of all GMs. There's an element of truth to this. But I specifically mentioned Matt Millen. I've listened to Millen talk. The guy is bright and knows far more about players than the average fan. He still sucked as a GM because the average fan isn't the measuring stick. As a GM, he was up against a lot of other talented GMs with good scouts beneath them. He failed against that level of competition. Drafting is a combination of subjective evaluation and predictive science that is inevitably imperfect. Every GM will have a Donte Whitner on their resume. But the probability of a GM getting a draft pick right is far greater than a fan getting a draft pick right because of all the hours or research an NFL team puts into the process. We simply don't have the resources to do the same level of due diligence. The fact that some fans decried the Whitner pick proves nothing about probability. It's anecdotal. Jeane Dixon predicted Kennedy's assassination. That doesn't mean she was prescient. She also predicted that WWIII would begin in 1958 and made a lot of other poor predictions. But people focused on the big one she reportedly got right. A mathematician called this the "Jeanne Dixon Effect." Fans are the same way. They focus on the random predictions they get right. That doesn't mean they have "insight." I demonstrate a lack of knowledge of the past 20 years of Bills football??? I'm not sure why you want to personally attack me that way. I've watched nearly every Bills game for the past 20++ years. But that's irrelevant. The bigger point is Beane and his staff have a track record of success. It's not a perfect track record. As Tom Brady recently reminded us, there are no rings. But since Beane's arrival, the Bills are one of the winningest teams in the league. Debi does not a similar track record. So, yeah, I trust Beane more than Debi from Depew. When Debi demonstrates the ability to put together a team that perennially reaches the NFL playoffs, that's when I'll listen.

Maybe I'm a homer but I have a bunch of positive thoughts on the WR group and our upcoming aerial attack... First of all, if the OL protects Josh, he's going to make plays regardless. This OL just might turn out to be our best yet since Josh's arrival. Secondly, these receivers aren't elite level NFLers but they're not high school kids either. If Brady is as smart and creative as some think he is, he'll scheme them open. Third, the analytics on the guys we lost weren't good. Josh's passer rating when throwing to Diggs and Davis was low. It was much higher when throwing to Kincaid and Shakir. Additionally, both Diggs and Davis ranked in the bottom half of the league in separation according to one chart I saw. My own observations don't incline me to disagree. Finally, we have 11 wide receivers on the roster. 11! Maybe we have 11 scrubs, but I don't think so. Shakir and Samuel are both proven, semi-proven guys. Claypool has demonstrated in the past that he has legit NFL talent. If he pulls his head out of his butt, he'll be a contributor. Beane and Allen both like Coleman. Hamler has speed, as does Isabella. Etc. Maybe all 11 have some chance of being a good, if not great, contributor. And we don't need all 11 to be non-scrubs, just 4 of them if we can stay healthy. Let me remind my mafia bros and sisses that we also have one of the better TE duos in the league. A lot depends on Brady. But if he proves to be a good OC, we just may see more receivers running open this year than we did last season. Not fewer.

Which is why positional group cap allocation will always be an ideal. And why some GM's suck. With so much fluidity, not to mention uncertainty, it's challenging to build and sustain a good roster. Beane moves since he came onboard have certainly created a better roster, though not a championship one. And now we find ourselves in 2024 in a bit of cap hell because of contract decisions made years ago. But, on the whole, I appreciate what he's carefully attempting to do this year to keep us competitive in the short-term while managing the long-term.

None of the guys listed are inspiring. Either Beane makes a trade (which I don't like because of the costs involved) or he goes with what we what we have now (which I don't like because it's just not good enough). It seems I'm fated to be unhappy.

It helps that Torrence is on a rookie contract but the fact that Bills are 29th in OL spending is concerning to me. The Bills invest heavily in the body of Josh Allen but they don't invest in a bodyguard.

Some GMs, I'm told, have cap allocation charts. They examine the value of each position group and allocate each group a different percentage of the cap. It's not a hard budget - more of an ideal that's very situationally dependent. For example, if your QB is on a rookie contract, you can temporarily allocate more to other position groups. If Beane has an allocation chart, it would be interesting to see how much he allocates to each position.

I don't collect autographs. Football is great to watch but players are just people. Their autographs would mean nothing to me. Then again, if a Brady autograph is worth selling, I'd be happy to have one.

My position is more emotional than logical. Moulds played a lot of good ball for us during the drought. He may be the best player of the Early Drought Period. I want to give him credit. Similarly, even though Kyle Williams did finally experience a playoff game, I give him credit for being a drought veteran.

I am continually surprised by how many North Face, etc., jackets you see in sunny southern places. When it's warm most of the year, 40 or 50 degrees can seem cold.

I'm not sure Washington would be my second choice, but Moulds would be my first. I once went to war as a soldier where folks tried to kill me, but I've spent most of my life in peaceful places. Do I not count as a combat veteran? Moulds spent six good years of his career in the drought. As far as I'm concerned, he's a drought veteran. By the same logic, sort of, I eliminated TO from consideration. Moulds fought against the drought with something like 500 receptions in drought years. TO was more like a war correspondent just passing through with something like 50 receptions.