This is the year to trade down and pick up multiple Day 2 picks

[Estro]

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

[MJS]

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

[BruceVilanch]

25 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

I agree, I think you trade down when you are trying to build a team, Buffalo has built the core of their team already and we are in need elite playmakers which you generally have to pay a high price for if you want to move up and get them. in past drafts I agree about acquiring as much talent as possible, we are in a rare position for this franchise where we are only a couple elite players away from competing for a SB. Go Bills!

[DCbillsfan]

I suspect Bills will stay in the first round to keep the 5th year option on that pick.  There are quite of few good players available on Day 2.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of last year - 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.  

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

 

I agree. We have solid talent and trading down probably gets you better depth, but this team needs ELITE talent. Now, if it is determined their is no elite talent to be had at 22, and it can be cashed in for more talent by trading down, sure. But to get the next level, it needs elite talent in the skill positions.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

WR not important to you I take it?

[cage]

5 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

I agree. We have solid talent and trading down probably gets you better depth, but this team needs ELITE talent. Now, if it is determined their is no elite talent to be had at 22, and it can be cashed in for more talent by trading down, sure. But to get the next level, it needs elite talent in the skill positions.

 

What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs.

 

Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round:

1. Michael Thomas     3

2. Keenan Allen            3

3. DeAndre Hopkins    1

4. Julian Edelman        7

5. Julio Jones              1

6. Allen Robinson        2

7. Cooper Kupp           3

8. Tyler Boyd                2

9.  Robert Woods         2

10.  DJ Moore               1

Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6).  Just a minority are first rounders.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, DCbillsfan said:

I suspect Bills will stay in the first round to keep the 5th year option on that pick.  There are quite of few good players available on Day 2.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of last year - 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.  

Yup.  I see Beane being even more aggressive and trading our late round picks like he did last year to get at least four picks in the first three rounds.  I'm hoping for five though.  I'm thinking we stay where we are in the 1st (or trade down a few spots), two in the 2nd, and possibly two in the 3rd.  Deep draft for OT and WR so he'd be wise to accumulate picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.

[formerlyofCtown]

Yes because we have so many roster spots to fill.

That way we can be like the Jets and cut 3rd rounders.

[Bakin]

21 minutes ago, cage said:

 

What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs.

 

Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round:

1. Michael Thomas     3

2. Keenan Allen            3

3. DeAndre Hopkins    1

4. Julian Edelman        7

5. Julio Jones              1

6. Allen Robinson        2

7. Cooper Kupp           3

8. Tyler Boyd                2

9.  Robert Woods         2

10.  DJ Moore               1

Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6).  Just a minority are first rounders.

Michael Thomas was a 2nd rounder

[Cripple Creek]

4 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

No.

[BillsFanSD]

We have more draft picks than spots available on the roster.  This is the perfect year to trade up, not down.

[nucci]

This is the year you get the best players you can and make a playoff run

[DCOrange]

I like the idea but pretty much hate the mock. 
 

and I also totally disagree that Beane views this as the year to trade down. I don’t think there will ever be a year he wants to trade down. 
 

if anything, that quote of his means he wants to trade up into the 2nd/3rd round using the extra day 3 picks. 

[Pete]

I would always trade down for extra picks- it increases odds of hitting on an elite talent, and is great for salary cap and comp picks down road.  Right now we need-

WR 1

WR 4

RB 1b

Edge

CB

backup QB

LB

 

wecan keep our picks, and have 3 top 100 picks, including pick 22, and fill 3 of those needs, maybe.

Or we can trade back, trade up, make multiple deals, and have 5-6 players in top 100.

give me the later option every time, and especially this year, unless top 3 OL fall to us, Chaisson, or Jeudy and Lamb

Edited March 6, 2020 by Pete

[Bob in STL]

Beane sets his board by player skill ratings first, and then need.  If he can move up to get a player that satisfies both criteria he will look to do it.   
 

He gets extra picks with shrewd moves to unload players that don’t fit.  

Edited March 7, 2020 by Bob in STL

[Ramza86]

Easy to say that...but if there is a guy still on the board they love....they are pulling the trigger without a doubt.

[whatdrought]

I’d rather trade 22 to the colts for 34 and 54. It’s an overpay by them, but I’d they’re gunning for a QB, we can put the screws to em a bit. 

[John from Riverside]

I am mixed on this seriously

the team has most of its players under contract and very few holes true playmakers are needee

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

I don't anything at all about the players, but I like the concept.   And I think you're right about what Beane has said about where the value seems to be in the draft.  

 

There's no question the talent is better in the first round than the second - that's just a statistical reality.   The difference in the talent is what matters.   The special talent is generally in the top four or five, maybe up to the top 10, but after that, you aren't talking about guys who are likely All-Pro and HOF talents.   You're just talking about guys who project to be very good NFL players.  Those probably very good NFL players run through the bottom half of the first and through the second, and some fall to the third.   So trading back from late in the first has exactly the potential you say - it increase by one the number of guys who have a good shot to make the team.   If you can pick five in the top three rounds, chances are good that four make the team.   Add two or three free agents, throw in a late round draftee or a free agent rookie who surprises, and you have seven to as many as ten new players on the roster.   That's a big talent upgrade on a team that's pretty good already.  

 

My only argument against the trade down is this:   the Bills will lose two or three important starters (Alexander, Shaq and Philips) and also really could use a starting receiver.  The first round pick, even though it's relatively late in the round, offers at least a decent shot and getting a quality guy to fill one of those slots.   It's tough to give that up.  

 

Maybe the better point is that this is at least the year that a trade down makes more sense than a trade up.  

[TigerJ]

I certainly think a trade down could be an option.  It will, of course, depend on who is left on the board.  I wouldn't trade down too far myself, but I don't think you'd have to go too far to pick up a day 2 pick.  If you had to, you could throw in a 6th rounder to get the day 2 pick you want.

[BillsVet]

Two months since the WC game and some have forgotten what made the difference that day.  Houston's not the top team in the league, but they erased a 16 point deficit rather quickly and much of it was via the passing game. 

 

Yeah, it's hard to find top WR's...it's even harder when you wait until the 2nd and 3rd round to do so. 

 

This off-season is about finishing their rebuild and rounding out the skill positions with top talent.  Being average across the field with choir-boy types and loads of cap room doesn't get you far.

 

Ask former NYJ GM John Idzik how beneficial it was to save cap room heading into a season. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

I would always trade down for extra picks- it increases odds of hitting on an elite talent, and is great for salary cap and comp picks down road.  Right now we need-

WR 1

WR 4

RB 1b

Edge

CB

backup QB

LB

 

wecan keep our picks, and have 3 top 100 picks, including pick 22, and fill 3 of those needs, maybe.

Or we can trade back, trade up, make multiple deals, and have 5-6 players in top 100.

give me the later option every time, and especially this year, unless top 3 OL fall to us, Chaisson, or Jeudy and Lamb

Your plan sounds like it’s on the spot for what we hear analytics based value models say.  It should be noted that while that is where the greatest value is, there are two issues with building a complete team that way and that analytics models do show this as well.  It doesn’t maximize wins and it doesn’t utilize cap resources well.  A very value centric team could be built this way, but that team wouldn’t win that much and it wouldn’t even make the league salary cap floor.

 

The point of those value models is to gain salary cap that can be used for elite players that equate to wins.  So, yes, if an elite prospect can’t be acquired it’s better to get more second tier prospects.  But ultimately teams want to spend to their cap limit in an effective manner.  That means a strong base of value players along with as much elite talent as can be had. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by BarleyNY

[BmarvB]

Stay put and take a shot at an Impact player. That's what this team is missing right now.

[MarkyMannn]

i like the 2018 draft.  Pick a guy at the top and get back in and get another mid-round first.  How'd that work out?  Pretty good.  

 

Besides we got few holes, we need quality picks, not quantity

[Gisele]

I want to see what we do in free agency before I start guessing the draft.  

[Just Joshin']

If the top edge, OL or WR targets are off the board then yes.  Otherwise stay put and get a day 1 starter.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Amen OP. There is no difference between 22 and the mid thirties. The only thin you lose is the fifth year guarantee. I’d give that up for additional picks on day two. 
Additionally, after using a day 3 pick on best punter, I would package some of the 5th and 6th round picks for higher 2021 pick.

There are not many roster spots up for grabs especially if they sign at least a couple starters in free agency or bring back Spain. A few day two defenders and AJ Green would be perfect. Or a DE in free agency and then a WR and two OLB on day two.

[Seoulofstone]

I like this idea, though not the players OP chose. I am trading back to pick up Zack Baun and either Denzel Mims or Laviska Shenault. For those who think impact players only exist at pick 20 I give you DK Metcalf. Good players always fall....

[dubs]

Like the strategy, not loving the picks. 
 

[Alphadawg7]

Personally, I think it’s entirely possible we trade down if a guy they covet isn’t on the board at 22.  They could trade down and get a guy like Dugger for example.  
 

But the power of trading down could also lead to them trading back up, maybe even multiple times to land even more 2nd and 3rd round players this year.  
 

I could honestly see Beane parlaying our draft assets into as many as 5 or 6 picks in the top 3 rounds.

 

Trade down picking up 2 there and some change potentially and then another trade up or 2.  
 

Im NOT predicting this, I mean honestly there is no way to predict our draft this year with any accuracy, especially before FA.  I can just as easily see us trading up if we can get to a spot at a price Beane can stomach to get a premier talent he covets.  There are just so many scenarios that could play out that have us landing a guy they covet at 22, trading up, or even trading down.

 

But a trade down I think is a legit possibility if they stand pat and they get a good offer to move back and their top targets are already gone.  That being said, there is a 0% chance they trade down regardless of the offer if he a high priority target is on the board at 22.  Beane will for sure take the talent over the picks.

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, cage said:

 

What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs.

 

Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round:

1. Michael Thomas     3

2. Keenan Allen            3

3. DeAndre Hopkins    1

4. Julian Edelman        7

5. Julio Jones              1

6. Allen Robinson        2

7. Cooper Kupp           3

8. Tyler Boyd                2

9.  Robert Woods         2

10.  DJ Moore               1

Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6).  Just a minority are first rounders.

 

You have a lot more faith in Brandon Beane's eye for WR talent than I do.

 

Keep in mind, we're looking for a premier #1 guy and Josh doesn't have 3 years to wait for a wideout to develop.  The Bills cannot miss here.

[Zerovoltz]

Something to think about here......

 

It's a deep draft.  It stands to reason A LOT of teams will want to trade back for more picks etc...but in a market where so many teams are looking to trade back, and so few looking to trade up.....there could be value in moving up instead.

 

Follow me for a moment here.  Let's say you are.....Green Bay at 30 (just a random team) and you feel that there are a ton of guys at 35-50 who are all about the same and you'd like to move back.  ......You need a partner or 2 who'd want to move up.  If you can't find that market, then you aren't moving down.....So, the Packers, if they are intent on moving down in this case, would probably be willing to trade back for less than the chart value etc....because all the teams want to move back for picks and no on wants to move up.

 

Hopefully I am making my point with the example, wich is.....in a year like this, there is value in MOVING UP.  It may well be a bargain if you want to go up, instead of back.  If you believe in the value of picks and you believe in targeting your guy.....this is a great year to be on the hunt to move up.....because it shouldn't be that costly.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Amen OP. There is no difference between 22 and the mid thirties. The only thin you lose is the fifth year guarantee. I’d give that up for additional picks on day two. 
Additionally, after using a day 3 pick on best punter, I would package some of the 5th and 6th round picks for higher 2021 pick.

There are not many roster spots up for grabs especially if they sign at least a couple starters in free agency or bring back Spain. A few day two defenders and AJ Green would be perfect. Or a DE in free agency and then a WR and two OLB on day two.

The trick in that case is finding value for your trade down.  There has to be a team - or better yet teams - that do see a difference in 22 vs mid 30s and are willing to pay for it.  Usually that points to positional importance or scheme specific players.  22 isn’t a terrible spot for that.  Elite and blue chip prospects will be gone.  Purple chip prospects will probably be running out around that pick.  Maybe we can’t trade up for one we want and there’s only one or two left that don’t fit here.  Some team will come get them.  Or maybe they run out totally and someone wants to snag a red chip QB or DE (since it’s such a poor class overall).  I’d rather get a better player, but this is a good way to go if we can’t. 

1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said:

Something to think about here......

 

It's a deep draft.  It stands to reason A LOT of teams will want to trade back for more picks etc...but in a market where so many teams are looking to trade back, and so few looking to trade up.....there could be value in moving up instead.

 

Follow me for a moment here.  Let's say you are.....Green Bay at 30 (just a random team) and you feel that there are a ton of guys at 35-50 who are all about the same and you'd like to move back.  ......You need a partner or 2 who'd want to move up.  If you can't find that market, then you aren't moving down.....So, the Packers, if they are intent on moving down in this case, would probably be willing to trade back for less than the chart value etc....because all the teams want to move back for picks and no on wants to move up.

 

Hopefully I am making my point with the example, wich is.....in a year like this, there is value in MOVING UP.  It may well be a bargain if you want to go up, instead of back.  If you believe in the value of picks and you believe in targeting your guy.....this is a great year to be on the hunt to move up.....because it shouldn't be that costly.

Ha!  Jinx!

[RyanC883]

9 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

 

this is okay, but the Bills need elite talent as other's have noted.  It depends on if Matos lasts till 34.  I would not trade down unless Matos or another DE we like is high on the list.  

 

I think Bryan Edwards is the "sleeper" WR in this draft.  

 

 

7 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

You have a lot more faith in Brandon Beane's eye for WR talent than I do.

 

Keep in mind, we're looking for a premier #1 guy and Josh doesn't have 3 years to wait for a wideout to develop.  The Bills cannot miss here.

 

I think the point is a "premier guy" is likely available after Rd. 1.  I'd go DE/ then do what it takes to grab Mims from Baylor.  

[SCBills]

I could see this, as well as using some of our multiple 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to get 4-5 picks in the 2nd & 3rd Rounds.  
 

We have no room for all those picks and I’d be shocked if they aren’t used to move around, and package to move up. 
 

I’d also be completely ok giving up next years 1st to get Ceedee Lamb.  He’s the exact type we’re missing. 
 

Edited March 6, 2020 by SCBills

[dlonce]

Any scenario is depended upon Free Agency first. 

 

FA will set the table for possibilities. 

 

I’d prefer to trade up this year, the higher the better. We have too many picks right now, and need a potential elite talent that can play today for you.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

In a salary cap environment, first round picks must be All-Pro's or their value per consumption of cap space is negative. Whereas 2nd/3rd rounders who are strong contributors have a good value/cost ratio. Get enough of those guys in house and you also hit on some All-Pro's from rounds 2-3 at much better initial cost for years 1-4.

[KGun12TD]

We got to get used to picking in the 20s and 30s...This is the new norm.

[Mark Vader]

4 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:

We have more draft picks than spots available on the roster.  This is the perfect year to trade up, not down.

 

2 hours ago, MarkyMannn said:

i like the 2018 draft.  Pick a guy at the top and get back in and get another mid-round first.  How'd that work out?  Pretty good.  

 

Besides we got few holes, we need quality picks, not quantity

I somewhat disagree.

 

Trading down is not a bad option, depending on who is still available of course.

 

We wouldn't have to trade all the way back to the second round either. Moving down 4-6 spots would be good and we'd still have a first round pick while gaining an extra Day 2 pick.

 

I think we need all the help at WR that we can get and this is the draft to do it. I think the Bills should draft 3 Wide Receivers, even if we do sign a veteran in free agency.

 

After John Brown & Cole Beasley, every other spot should be open competition.

 

I'm not saying that the Bills should absolutely trade down, but I do see the benefit of it.