DCOrange

I don’t think suddenness is a strength for him at all personally, nor is dealing with press coverage. Of the 13 WRs Matt Harmon has charted so far, the only two worse at dealing with press coverage are McConkey and Roman Wilson.

Assuming we're talking purely about their ability to win down the field, probably something like: Brian Thomas Jermaine Burton Javon Baker Troy Franklin Adonai Mitchell Worthy, Legette, Tez, and Coleman are in the discussion there too.

Hope you're right

Yeah, that's Penix. He definitely has some moments where he looks like an amazing passer, but for the most part, I think he's pretty mediocre. I know Ben Solak for example had him charted as the least precise of the perceived top 6 QBs in the draft. I think there's too many red flags there for my liking but he's a fine flier in the 3rd round if he makes it there. I think he's going to end up being my QB5 or QB6 depending on where I end up with Spencer Rattler.

There was nothing about character concerns in McMillan's bio in Dane Brugler's draft guide either and I feel like it would definitely be in there if that was out in the world. At any rate, I'm not a fan of his game anyways but that's interesting to hear.

I keep going back and forth on whether I think the optimal move is to trade up, trade WAY up, or stand pat. This feels like a really good outcome though. Two of my favorite WR prospects in the draft and a good safety prospect. I'll differ to others on how the other Day 3 picks are but if we came out of the draft with Brian Thomas and Javon Baker, I would be very pleased. Think there's been some rumors that he struggles to learn the playbook, but beyond that, not really sure. It seems like everyone in the draft community says he's underrated but if everyone says it, is he really underrated?

I can't explain all of it, but one thing I should mention is that %'s in general are higher against zone coverage. Harmon is basically tracking how often they get open against different coverage types and it's easier to get open against zone defense vs. when someone is actively trying to follow you everywhere. So with Burton for example, his success rate against man coverage was 75.0% vs. 78.6% against zone coverage. But the 75.0% against man is 3rd best while the 78.6% against zone is 3rd worst. That doesn't really explain why Nabers YPRR would be better than everyone against zone while his success rate vs. zone is behind most of them, but just providing some context. I'd guess the real explanation is that if Nabers scores an 80 yard TD against zone, that greatly impacts his YPRR but it only counts as one success against the zone coverage and doesn't count any more than beating zone coverage for a 2 yard gain would. Considering how explosive Nabers was, that would tend to help his YPRR a lot while not necessarily helping his success rates as much.

I think that may be at least in part what Samuel is for.

Jermaine Burton is next up for Matt Harmon...looks like his profile will be posted today or tomorrow. The data is pretty good though. 3rd best success rate against man in the draft class, though he is tied with Nabers for 3rd worst against zone. 3rd best against press coverage as well and I know his hands are considered to be very good. Says based purely on film and his data, Burton would be a 1st round pick. Maybe bumped down to early 2nd round based on his off-field issues.

In all likelihood, he'll be off the board by the time we pick anyways. Would be a nice addition to the secondary though; feels like a very McDermott pick.

Probably depends what those catches look like but I would lean towards yes.

FWIW, Benjamin Allbright is saying Seattle is basically a lock to take Troy Fautanu at #16.

Profiles for Franklin and Xavier Legette were posted today. Updated rankings: MHJ - #1 out of 63 he's scouted since 2021, Top 10 pick Rome Odunze - #3, Top 10 pick Malik Nabers - #8, Top 10 pick Brian Thomas Jr. - #12, Clear 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall - #17, Late 1st/Very early 2nd Ladd McConkey - #18, Late 1st/Very early 2nd Adonai Mitchell - #20, Late 1st/Very early 2nd Xavier Worthy - #25, Priority Round 2 Troy Franklin - #28, Priority Round 2 Keon Coleman - #33, Good Day 2 Option Xavier Legette - #34, Good Day 2 Option Roman Wilson - #50, Late 3rd/Early 4th Franklin 58th percentile vs. man 72nd percentile vs. zone 26th percentile vs. press Does a great job stacking DBs when working downfield and also does a great job breaking off his routes to come back to the ball on curls His poor results against press coverage point towards potentially being more of a flanker WR rather than an X at the next level Doesn't look comfortable working over the middle of the field "Difficult evaluation because he has some nuance to his route running and the type of foundation you want to build on, but the lack of play strength and his frame really haunt him". "I don't know how you watch Franklin play and not come away concerned that he doesn't trust his hands" His relatively good base of fundamentals and route running should make him much more valuable than more limited vertical types (such as Valdes-Scantling). If he can bulk up some without sacrificing his speed and flexibility, he could be really good. Legette 19th percentile vs. man 62nd percentile vs. zone 19th percentile vs. press Fits into the same bucket as Keon Coleman where Harmon believes he best projects as a big slot in the NFL Good timing working over the middle, finds windows in zone coverage and displayed the ability to keep those windows open as long as possible Transitions to run after the catch very well Raw route runner, struggles with isolated routes and "is not at a place in his development where he can win one-on-one His plan against press coverage is "wildly underdeveloped" "Hard not to be cautious when projecting an older prospect with this lack of seasoning" Stellar in contested catch situations and has good hands in general "If a coach wants to use Legette outside because of his physical gifts, the ceiling for this kind of guy is an Alshon Jeffery-type; a productive contested catch maven who has big seasons but is likely best as a complementary threat. Possibilities open up if he lands with a more creative coaching staff who has a vision for him beyond the X-receiver downfield combatant"

I don't always agree with Thor, but he is at least willing to go against the grain with some of his takes. Also now the second person in two days to compare Troy Franklin to Marvin Mims.

Certainly a smaller league, but he's basically the same size as Maliq Brown and probably a little stronger. I don't think we'll really want to play him at C but if McCleod and Patterson end up being hurt/non-factors, Davis will probably be asked to fill in.

Davis is mostly PF. Can probably fill in a little at C or SF if needed. He was the starting C for Delaware last year.

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it: Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas) Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall) Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy) His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was. Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

Jyare Davis to Syracuse is official. Gotta think Dakota Leffew will follow soon. In outgoing transfer news, Justin Taylor committed to James Madison and Maliq Brown is visiting (gulp) Duke.

He showed at the Senior Bowl that he has the movement skills to run good routes IMO but in actual games it felt like by far his biggest strength was more just utilizing his speed on crossers, posts, etc.

I like him and I think he has some of the skills and the intangibles that Beane will like. Feels like an exclusive slot guy though which between Shakir, Samuel, and the big slot/TEs, I feel like there isn't much opportunity there.

I don't really buy it personally, particularly with Mitchell because the same effort issues showed up at Georgia. Hard to say for sure with Worthy since he didn't switch schools/staffs. Yes. If I went just off of the metrics that I like to look at, Mitchell would literally be near the bottom of the draft class and one of the lowest rated I've had in the last few years (out of almost 130 WRs). Worthy is near the tail end of the top 1/3 of that group, pretty good but not great. I wouldn't take Mitchell at 28 personally. I could maybe get on board with trading up in the 2nd round for him, but in all likelihood, there will be WRs available at #60 that I will have a higher/equal grade on than Mitchell. I'm not sure there's realistically a WR I would opt for at #28 (assuming Brian Thomas doesn't slide that far). After the big 3 + Thomas, I have late 1st or early 2nd round grades on the following: Coleman, Franklin, Jacob Cowing, McConkey, Javon Baker, and Pearsall. Considering they're all early 2nd round or better, I wouldn't really be mad if Buffalo took one of them at 28 but my guess is there will be better value available at other positions there. Cowing is basically a guarantee to be available at #60 as I don't think anyone is really as high on him as I am (he's also almost certainly slot-exclusive which probably means he isn't a fit for us) and Baker seems extremely likely to be available at #60/could be a trade up into the 3rd round candidate.

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet. Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot. Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though. Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

Some of it can pretty innocently be explained away: He blew up early in his high school career and decided to capitalize on that by transferring to one of the powerhouse prep schools (IMG Academy). Got homesick and decided to go back to Atlanta but I believe Georgia has rules against people transferring from out-of-state, so despite growing up in Atlanta, he was ruled ineligible and had to move elsewhere again to continue playing football, so he ended up in California. Some of it, not so easy to explain away; it sounds like none of the coaching staffs that he played for in college liked him. Also not included in the 6 schools in 8 years thing is that he originally committed to Miami, changed his commitment to LSU, and then flipped one more time on Signing Day to Georgia. So he never technically went to Miami or LSU, but he's really had a hard time making a decision and sticking with it. In Matt Harmon's scouting, he has Pearsall's success rate against press coverage at 67.7% (51st percentile) vs. McConkey at 44.4% (8th percentile).

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those. Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well. Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them). Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class. Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class. For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.