DCOrange

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far: MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2 Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

Wake entered the NFL draft (or at least signed with an NFL team) before ending up in the CFL, so no need to enter the draft again. Stiggers never went through the draft process and I believe is one year away from being able to enter the league as a free agent. Not 100% positive on that though.

Would be very surprised if he isn’t our starting PG for better or worse.

It's the QBs to me. After Caleb and Maye, I wouldn't touch any of them in the first round. I could maybe understand McCarthy but I wouldn't want to be the team taking him in the first personally. Daniels, Nix, Penix...I don't see it with them.

Perhaps so. I won't pretend I have those sorts of connections; I can only go off the film and metrics. Based on those two things, I would say he's a 2nd rounder. If teams just don't think he'll be able to develop then I get passing on him.

Almost certainly will have to play in the slot.

Working off of this consensus big board: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024 I would go with Javon Baker and Jacob Cowing at WR. Both are top 10 WRs in this class IMO. The consensus big board still has Drake Maye as the #2 prospect in the class, but it feels like a lot of the people in the mainstream media are pushing him down their boards and I think that's a major mistake.

I think I have a strong idea who our PG will be lol. I’m a bit skeptical but hope Leffew is up to the task.

Some notes that I haven't seen mentioned much elsewhere: MHJ: "As talented as he is, his discipline and dedication to his craft might be the most impressive part of him" - NFL scout. Tendency to coast when he isn't the target of the play, poor effort as a blocker, not really a YAC weapon. Turned down NIL deals at first because he believed they'd be a distraction. Nabers: Body catches more than you'd like but has shown the ability to extend and catch the ball with his hands. Was arrested on Bourbon St. for illegally carrying a weapon. Was ruled ineligible his senior year of high school because his family happened to move to the same school district as his former coach and there was a rule against that; still made the All-American team despite not playing lol. Credits his time growing up as a center fielder for his ability to track the deep ball. Odunze: His weaknesses section is hilariously short. Needs to expand his route tree and only average change of direction skills, but that's basically it. Suffered a broken rib/punctured lung and didn't miss any time. Thomas: Needs to improve his play strength and tends to lose his footing on some of his breaks, but his ability to stutter step and then accelerate is great, uses his basketball background to box people out, and has "minimal delay going from catcher to runner, which is uncommon for a big receiver" McConkey: Similar to Legette, he switched from WR to QB his senior season in high school. Experience as a punt returner, gunner, and on kickoff coverages. Adding weight has been a challenge in the past; scouts believe he probably won't be able to put on any additional weight in the NFL. Doesn't have ideal contact balance, but makes up for it with his creativity after the catch. AD: Played a few games at QB his senior year of high school but otherwise played WR. Always looking for someone to block. Below average play strength; physical DBs will give him trouble. Small hands and doesn't always play strong to the football. Not a YAC weapon and wasn't a high volume target in college. Coleman: Was a star basketball player in high school while also competing in track and playing football. Only considered colleges where he could play both basketball and football. Switched his commitment twice before ultimately landing at Michigan State. Left the Michigan State basketball team at the beginning of his sophomore season to focus exclusively on football. Cousin of CeeDee Lamb. Draws a lot of penalties. Quickly transitions from catcher to runner, quick burst off the LOS and at the top of his route. Physically dominant as a run blocker. Driven to max out his ability and cash in for his family. Not as efficient beating press coverage as you'd expect. While he's improved as a route runner, more polish is required. Can be a bit prone to offensive pass interference. Had some nagging injuries throughout college. Going to bounce around more from here/be shorter as I just can't do this for everyone lol, but let me know if there's any guys in particular you'd like a short blurb about and I can try to get back to you. Pearsall: Punt return and gunner experience, dad was a "tough-as-*****, sticky-handed receiver" just like Ricky. Worthy: Committed to Michigan and tried to early-enroll, but academic issues forced him to delay enrollment. He moved to Michigan anyways to get to know his teammates and ended up leaving a month later and reconsidered his options. Joined Steve Sarkisian at Texas due to how he utilized Devonta Smith at Alabama. Corley: first from his high school to play division 1 football Legette: Played running back as a child, moved to WR for high school, and then moved to QB his senior year; comes from a town of 2,500 people. His 1.78 "flying 20" tied Brian Thomas for the fastest at the combine. Experience as a kick returner and gunner, "genuinely enjoys playing on special teams". Missed a few games after a motorcycle accident in 2021. Malik Washington: Led all WRs in forced missed tackles this season. Inexperienced on special teams outside of kick returns. Torn ACL as a junior in high school. Tez Walker: Most of his offers were to play DB. Torn ACL his senior year of high school, and his college team pulled their scholarship as a result. Worked at Bojangle's to pay for his rehab during his one year gap between high school and college. Has been open about mental health challenges he's faced growing up. He had the only 20+ yard catch allowed by CB Nate Wiggins in 2023. Burton: 6 schools in 8 years, a reputation as an undisciplined player, and had "up and down moments" with the coaching staffs at Georgia and Alabama. Played for former Chargers WR Curtis Conway at one of his many high schools and was teammates with Johnny Wilson. Rice: Never lived with Jerry Rice growing up. Joined track team as a junior in high school because college football coaches questioned his speed. McMillan: Family believes he's a better baseball player than football player. Received dual-sport offers from schools including Oklahoma and USC. Nothing crazy, but has suffered several injuries over his college career. Re-aggravated his MCL sprain multiple times this past season, which forced him to miss a lot of time. Javon Baker: Left Alabama after two seasons. Initially committed to Kentucky in the transfer portal, but they pulled their offer so he ended up at UCF instead. Says he learned a lot from DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle at Alabama. More drops than TDs in his college career. Cowing: One of the lowest ranked recruits in UTEP's recruiting class but he led the team in receiving 3 years in a row. Became a father during his freshman year of college. Entered the transfer portal to try to find a small school near Arizona to be closer to his son and was shocked when several big name schools came calling. Had an NIL deal with the Boys and Girls Club, which he says was very influential on him as a child. Feisty blocker despite his small stature. Was banged up throughout his college career but never missed a game. Only FBS player with 85+ receptions each of the last two seasons. Johnny Wilson: Was only the #21 WR in his recruiting class, but he received almost 40 scholarship offers. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce was one of his main recruiters and got him to ultimately commit to Arizona State. Was one of many players to leave Arizona State amidst NCAA investigations. Didn't receive much attention in the transfer portal but he reached out to FSU head coach Mike Norvell and convinced him to offer a scholarship. Doesn't play as strong as you'd expect, struggles to match DB's physicality. "Hears footsteps" working over the middle of the field. Zero special teams experience. Missed most of 2021 due to a hamstring injury.

I’ve said it a few times in this thread, but the main thing that made DK such a great prospect IMO was his ability to beat press coverage and then accelerate immediately. Legette doesn’t have either of those qualities IMO whereas it’s Thomas’ calling card.

Sounds like everyone's been balking at the asking price for Harvard PG Malik Mack and it's slowly becoming more realistic for us to get him. Not sure who else might be in on him beyond these three schools, but I've heard us, Georgetown, and Vanderbilt are three of the schools that have mutual interest.

Understand it's probably much more than that chart swaying you, but Legette is significantly lower than Thomas in the career YPRR part of that chart and just on par in terms of the target rate. Mitchell is slightly above them in target rate but below them in YPRR. He's obviously nowhere near as jacked as DK was, but skillset/usage wise, Thomas is very similar to DK right now IMO.

I'd rather just draft multiple WRs in the draft but he wouldn't be the worst flier to take. Issue is he may be best suited for the slot at this point and we have plenty of guys to line up there.

I think the part of Keon's game that can theoretically translate immediately are things like backshoulder throws and just contested catches in general over the middle. That, his run blocking ability, and the YAC stuff should allow him to have an immediate role in an offense. There's a lot of areas where he needs to grow. He's the second youngest WR in the draft class (beating out Xavier Worthy by a couple weeks). One thing that would help a ton is that there's reps where he properly uses that strong body of his to get the route leverage that he wants and then lean into the DB before exploding away to create a lot of separation. It's not something that he does consistently right now, but given his combination of youth, physical tools, and seemingly good intangibles, those that might take him early are betting on him making stuff like that a more common occurrence. I think a few years earlier in our team building, Coleman is someone that Beane would have had a ton of interest in. I'm not so sure about that in 2024.

Sounds like Dakota Leffew might be the one to keep an eye on. He'll be a 5th year senior, but this past season was the first time he's played point guard as their starting PG got hurt two games into the year. It would be a high risk move. I don't really think it makes a ton of sense for him to be the target, nor do I think it makes a ton of sense for him to even want a PG role, but we'll see I guess. He showed a lot of flashes of passing ability this past season, but over his 4 year career playing in the MAAC (in the conversation for the worst conference in Division 1), he has 233 assists to 228 turnovers. Unfortunately there aren't a lot of point guards out there right now; there's a lot of scoring guards but it's pretty light on guys that will consistently create for their teammates. Carlos as mentioned above is certainly one of the few, but I'm not sure if he offers enough scoring. The one kid that seems to offer both the scoring and creating upside is Malik Mack from Harvard, who is notably friends with Donnie Freeman, but it doesn't sound super likely at the moment. He's asking for a ton of money to leave Harvard; it doesn't sound like Syracuse is willing to match his price but it sounds like maybe nobody will so he may have to decide if he just wants to take the most he can get or simply stay at Harvard (which is obviously a very good choice too lol). I think we were really hoping Erik Reynolds from St. Joseph's would enter the portal. Similar to Leffew, he's not really a point guard but has shown flashes of passing ability. But what he does have is some of the best shooting/shot creation in the country. Unfortunately it's starting to sound like he'll just end up staying at St. Joe's.

Really knocking the draft out of the park IMO.

Finally got around to watching film of Javon Baker and Jermaine Burton, so I'm up to 23 receivers now. Not sure if I'll ultimately get around to more or not...I had Malik and Tahj Washington circled as two that I wanted to watch but I just don't know if I'll ultimately have the time to get to them. I still have to finish up a few QBs as well. Anywho, sort of brief notes on these two guys as well as where I slot them in in my rankings: Javon Baker Good release package off the line Good body control to hang in the air combined with strong hands makes him a good contested target guy Sets DBs up well, decelerates, changes direction, etc. Ran a lot of vertical routes at UCF but he seems to have the tools to be a good route runner Pretty average acceleration and long speed, that combined with the diet of vertical routes may have contributed to him having one of the lowest "open" ratings in the class per PFF Pretty strong physically, but had a few times across the games I watched where he just allowed DBs to push him tight up against the sideline and basically make it impossible to make the catch in bounds. Kind of just gets in the way as a run blocker vs. someone like Coleman who you legitimately want to design run plays towards Ultimately got an early 2nd round grade from me for his film which puts him at the tail end of the top 10. #10 in terms of my metrics rating as well. Jermaine Burton Effortless speed Impressive ball tracking on the deep ball Will continue to work his way open when his QB is buying time, which could pair very nicely with Allen Strong hands, physical at the catch point Does a nice job of varying speeds in his routes, getting into the DB's blind spot, etc. Has a tendency to run his routes standing straight up/almost running on his tip toes, led to some awkwardness getting in and out of his breaks. Generally poor effort as a run blocker Got an early 3rd round grade from me for his film, #15 in the class. #20 in terms of my metrics rating. Overall Rankings

Yep. I suspect we have our new PG in the next 7-10 days.

Sounds like the staff is feeling good about our chances of getting Jyare Davis, a transfer from Delaware. 6'7" upperclassman that was their starting C this year. Probably more of a PF depth piece for us.

I know you've already addressed it some extent, but of the 43 WRs I researched, his analytics are nearly the worst in the class and of the 86 WRs I've looked at in the previous two years, only one player that's even close to Mitchell's score has had any production (maybe two if you consider Tyquan Thornton to be a success). In both his Georgia and Texas film, there's an alarming number of reps where he just doesn't try even when he's meant to be a valuable part of the play. He's also one of the worst in the class in terms of running after the catch. And nitpicking a bit more, he doesn't fight for the ball in the air particularly well yet (but he does obviously have the size and athleticism to project success there someday).

In order: Troy Franklin Ladd McConkey AD Mitchell Xavier Legette Xavier Worthy But I probably only consider the first two at 28.

My attempt to convince myself the sky isn't falling: A lot of people believe Kincaid will turn into a go-to receiver. A lot of people believe Shakir is blossoming into a good starter. A lot of people believe Curtis Samuel is a good starter. It's still a very deep WR class with a ton of guys that project as starting caliber WRs. The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl in which their top receivers were a declining (albeit still very good) Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marques Valdes-Scantling. If all of that stuff is true, we should still have a pretty good group of receivers even without trading up in the draft and probably a better group than some of the other contenders have had recently. I don't know how much of that I actually believe though lol.

Feel like we gotta trade up into the top 10 now. I don't know. This feels like an absolute disaster despite Diggs' age and potential decline we saw last season.

I like Klassen, particularly for his QB breakdowns. These are some real interesting rankings. I really don't see it with McMillan personally; he's on my do not draft list. He's much lower on Franklin than I am too, but some of the other stuff lines up pretty similarly with me. Relatively high on Coleman, relatively low on Worthy, Mitchell, and Legette. Interesting stuff. I think you're probably correct that if he's the guy Beane wants, he should just take him at 28. I hope that's not the case though personally.