DCOrange

To be fair, the Lawrence draft after Lawrence was pretty dreadful. Likewise with 2022. I know he said Mond was like the best passer in the draft class which is simply asinine. I can't remember the comments about Corral but somebody has to be ranked somewhat high in each class lol. I don't think his track record is horrendous or anything but he has significant misses just like everyone else does.

I have a really hard time taking anything Simms says seriously after he credited himself with nailing the Josh Allen draft because he ranked them correctly at one point, but in reality, he changed his rankings like 5 times after that and ultimately had Rosen as his #2 QB and Lamar as his #4. I'm fine with the occasional miss, like being weirdly high on Kellen Mond or having Zach Wilson over Lawrence (though that was honestly pretty egregious IMO). I'm not fine with just putting out a bunch of different versions of rankings and then saying whichever one looks the best in retrospect was the real rankings.

#1 QB in the class, and one of two 1st round prospects IMO. Drives me nuts that he might fall to the Patriots in real life and at the expense of my local team too. I really hope this is how it plays out in reality.

I assume at this point that JJ and Bell stick around to start on the wings so we end up with a lineup of: PG: ???, maybe Erik Reynolds but not sure SG: JJ Starling SF: Chris Bell PF: Donnie Freeman C : Eddie Lampkin I fear the paint defense will be atrocious again as JJ and Bell haven't really shown the effort to defend on the perimeter and Lampkin almost literally cannot jump. Gotta hope Red gets those guys to buy in on defense to minimize Lampkin's flaws defensively. Offensively, we could be good. A little nervous about the ball-handling/shot creation but if Reynolds ends up being the guy, he gives us a lethal shooter on the move. Bell is a great stand still shooter. JJ isn't particularly great at anything but shot it pretty well the second half of the year and has shown some flashes of creating off the dribble. Lampkin is a guy you can run the offense through in spurts; his size is tough to deal with even if he isn't super skilled and he's a creative passer (albeit very careless with the ball like Copeland was). Not entirely sure what to make of Donnie offensively yet. He didn't shoot the ball well in high school, but he's supposedly been shooting it very well at the McDonald's practices/scrimmages. He's a good athlete and is fairly comfortable with the ball in his hands, though I wouldn't really expect him to break people down off the dribble. At any rate, if Lampkin ends up being the guy, then it definitely feels like we're hoping to score enough points to make up for our defense. Lampkin does not have the skillset I would personally prioritize in a center, particularly with the likely roster we'll have next season. But I don't know what other options are really feasible for us so maybe this is the best we can do. I'd prefer someone that can protect the rim and elevate around the rim offensively but the fact that we can just post Lampkin up would probably provide some value.

And just like that, Eddie Lampkin is reportedly visiting today.

Think it’s a pretty safe bet he’ll have plenty of suitors. Sounds like we’re targeting Eddie Lampkin from Colorado.

Maliq Brown in the portal Guess my source was right…just took awhile.

Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts: Brian Thomas Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average Success rate against press coverage was elite Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college. His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4. Ladd McConkey Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite. His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL. His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well. Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs. Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights. Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2). Keon Coleman His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad. Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success. To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot. Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered. Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills as we don't need a slot or zone specialists right now. Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).

I think his tape is mostly very good. The main negative that I questioned a bit on film and was seemingly confirmed at the Combine was his hands. He didn’t drop the ball in the games I watched but it didn’t really look like he was super confident catching the ball and it left me wondering if he just kinda got lucky in the games I watched. Then he struggled with it at the Combine. Definitely a concern. I think he’s one of the few in this class (outside the top 3) that has a true calling card though. Most of these guys require projection or are solid in some areas but it isn’t super clear where they can win on day 1. Franklin showed he can get open in the short passing game with creative releases at the line and that’s something we could definitely use. Add his vertical ability on top of that and you have one of the best WR prospects in the draft IMO (if you can get past the potentially shaky hands).

I've really only scouted the QBs and WRs (and read about some other positions but I wouldn't really swear by anyone since I haven't watched their film. Drake Maye - To me, the #1 QB in the draft. For the life of me I do not understand the current buzz that Daniels and JJ could go ahead of him. I don't think those two are remotely close to Maye as a prospect. Javon Baker - I still need to watch film properly on him, but I feel like I kinda caught on to him before it was cool to like him which is always fun. Jacob Cowing - Might be too small to make it in the NFL, but his film was awesome to me. Really rooting for him at the next level. Keon Coleman - Feels like a pretty good chance he busts in the NFL, but he kinda reminds me of Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming where despite all the evidence that we should avoid him, I like him.

Unless Brian Thomas slides, I’d probably vote to skip WR at 28. After the top 4, I’m not really dying to take any of them in the first round. There should be plenty of talent available in the second and if we get nervous, we can trade up in the second round no problem.

I think he will definitely end up at a better program than Siena.

Given how many scholarships we had the year we took him, I'm totally fine with taking a flier on a late bloomer with his height and athleticism but between injuries and simply lack of development, it was probably time to move on. I wonder if he'd consider following Gerry to Siena or if he'd prefer to try to catch on at a bigger program again. Really curious to see what they end up doing with that assistant vacancy. I haven't really heard anything concrete but seems like the prevailing theory at the moment is that they'll look to bring in someone outside the Syracuse family. Someone else however mentioned Demetris Nichols as a possibility too. Guess we shall see.

Peter Carey has officially entered the transfer portal.

It’s also possible he was just talking about Legette’s rank among the guys that are perceived as great WR prospects. Gould is an intriguing Day 3 option but he’s not viewed anywhere near the same caliber of prospect as a guy like Legette.

100% agreed. Think Samuel is a nice upgrade for the offense but doesn’t address the deep ball threat/perimeter threat that we are missing after losing Gabe. Fortunately it’s a fantastic draft for WRs; we should have plenty of options to choose from to add that element. And I tend to think we should pass on the WRs in the first round unless Thomas happens to slide.

I love Harmon’s work and Samuel has obviously played with pretty iffy QBs for most of his career, but the production simply hasn’t been there against man coverage. Like I said, I think he has the skills to potentially be a good WR against man but he’s going on Year 7 or whatever and people are still hoping for him to really break out. I don’t want it to come across like I think he sucks or anything; I like Samuel and am excited to have him on the team. I just don’t think it would be wise to assume we’re all set with he and Diggs as the man beaters. Would much rather add one more weapon that projects to be that type of player. Even if you want to assume Samuel will be a beast against man, we still have more of a need for that skillset than beating zone IMO.

Oh duh lol I was reading the wrong part of the chart. 4.0 still isn't #1 in the class though (but it is #2). Anthony Gould was at 4.3 this year. That's what Kincaid and Shakir are for. Those two (and Diggs, who is good against basically any coverage) are great against the zone. Aside from Diggs, we don't really have anyone that excels against man coverage (Samuel theoretically has the skills to be but simply hasn't done it to this point in his career).

I always enjoy when different stat trackers cite the same statistic with completely different numbers. Warren Sharp has Legette at 4.0 YPRR this past season while PFF has him at 3.2 (which is still very good, but merely 8th in the class instead of 1st). He was also, as you could probably guess based on his numbers the prior season, dead last in YPRR that year.

Gerry McNamara to Siena

At minimum our first two picks this year and next years first. Likely some more future picks thrown in as well.

I knew the chart was gonna be good because Harmon was saying on one of his YouTube videos that he absolutely loves Odunze and was trying to hold back laughter from how good he is. Bummer I feel like he’s most likely to end up a Jet at this point.

One of the things I always love about stuff like this, is much like the “We’re going to take best available regardless of need” line, you can pretty much twist this to fit which ever prospect you favor. Smart and versatile? Even guys like Coleman that some may view as not versatile provides value as a run blocker, punt returner, and lined up both out wide and in the slot a lot in college. Is that not versatile? Does their skillset offset players currently on the roster? With the exception of that big bodied perimeter receiver, we have everything else covered at this point (maybe not a vertical threat if you think Diggs is toast in that regard). Hands and YAC ability? Worthy dropped a lot of passes, but maybe it was just a broken hand. Javon Baker drops a lot of passes but then he makes some incredible catches. Adonai Mitchell basically has zero drops but he doesn’t fight for the ball particularly well in the air. Adonai’s YAC numbers were terrible but with his athleticism, why can’t he be a YAC guy? Ultimately Beane will take whomever and be able to sell them as a fit for what they were looking for. I think the one that might be most difficult to fit into that criteria is the one I want most: Brian Thomas. Love him as a prospect but I don’t think you can really make a good faith argument that he’s versatile, at least not right now.

I haven't found any All 22 film from Idaho but his metrics definitely stand out (granted, as you said, it's against lower competition). He's definitely someone I'd like to get to see at some point.

Yeah, even as someone that has him WR4 or WR5 in the class, he has a litany of red flags at this point. It's kinda akin to when we drafted Allen where there was a ton of legitimate reasons to think he'd be a bust.