BillsVet

I've always liked the draft for how it shows what a team is really thinking long-term. In UFA, they're filling more immediate needs, but the draft is a more long-term personnel decision process. And we spend most of the lead up projecting what will happen. Draft weekend confirms or denies those thoughts. At the end of last season, I think McD finally got what we wanted on offense: a more run-heavy team that threw more short to intermediate. Josh's yards per attempt went down, even though he was throwing it as frequently under Dorsey compared to Brady (35 to 33 attempts per game). Upside is Josh reduced his INT's, but I'm still not a fan of taking the ball out of Josh's hands or running him like Brady did. Wouldn't be surprised to see them go in another direction and justify it by noting the depth of this WR class. And then point to what's in-house already, but we will find out soon enough.

Josh 2019 wasn't Josh 2020-present, but the game that stands out which goes against this idea was against Baltimore late in 2019. Buffalo's WR depth was Brown, miscast as a WR1 and Beasley as their slot guy. Late in the 4th quarter on a 4th and 8, Brown was matched up 1:1 versus Marcus Peters and couldn't make the catch. Bills lost 24-17. Similar issues surfaced against Houston in the WC game a few weeks later. Bills' offense lacked the receivers to score when they needed. This prompted the trade for Diggs, but since then they've expended little in UFA or higher draft picks. In fact, Buffalo hasn't drafted a receiver worth re-signing among all the home-grown guys they've retained. That this could happen in the passing era is an indication something's amiss with how they value the position. The more if's and hopefully's you've got heading into the season, the less likely things will work out.

The run-pass ratio from Dorsey to Brady was much different because Buffalo just started running the ball more under Brady. This worked in the regular season, but only to a point. Didn't stop Brady from relying too much on Josh gaining yards on the ground like his predecessors resorted to by the end of the season and into the playoffs. If the idea is to take the ball out of Josh's hands more running it with the backs and/or have him run, this offense is limited. It's limited when you run out receivers who are short to intermediate types, can't track it downfield, and historically 10-12 ypc options. Defenses cheat. And in the current NFL, expecting to maintain 10+ play drives consistently is not a recipe for success. The difference in WR talent shows up more in the playoffs when scoring gets harder because you can't be that personnel-limited even with Josh.

Buffalo hasn't traded a primary starter this near the draft since Jason Peters went to Philadelphia in 2009. It wasn't surprising they didn't subsequently adjust their board given the crew in charge back then. This time, Beane alluded to shopping Diggs for a while, which at the least was a decision to come out of their post-season review in late January/early February. And if that's the case, not a stretch to believe their draft board was built knowing that Diggs was going to be moved. Especially since they saw a draft class with strong WR talent. It would say a lot about this regime if they decided that their primary receiving options for Josh next season were Samuels, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and a RD2-3 rookie. Because as much as Diggs was declining, it wouldn't be that many degrees of separation from what Buffalo did at OT after trading Peters: relying on rookies/2nd year players and lesser talented options to make up for that deal. Their vision for this team has crystalized in the last couple seasons. And now, most people are seeing that what McD wants to do on offense is to limit Josh and focus on a by-committee offensive approach with decent skilled talent, but not elite. That's not going to work in the AFC.

Don't really care what the Packers did with their WR group...they've accomplished little in the playoffs even with Rodgers going back years. They are in no way a blueprint for how to build an offense and even after investing more at WR, it was too little too late. If there's a similarity to Buffalo, it's that they didn't support their franchise QB with what it takes to build a SB caliber offense. This sort of evaluation above values their quantity too highly as opposed to quality. This is only realized when the season starts and guys like Shakir and Samuel are elevated to more prominent roles they cannot equal previous production. It's like Davis a few years ago going from being the WR3 and people just assuming he'd produce as a WR2. He never did. And then there's the assumption that younger players will improve. Davis never really did nor has Knox. I like Kincaid, but it's no guarantee that a 2nd year player breaks out. You don't pin your hopes on young players who are unproven, while increasing their role. It's why one of the issues moving Diggs is that they didn't have a plan aside from drafting someone. Let's assume they get into position to take one of the top WR's. Josh's top targets next year will include that rookie, Samuel (who is a career 10.7 ypc guy), 2nd year man Kincaid, Shakir who is a tweener type WR, and PS caliber types. To me, even with the trade, their planning to support Josh is highly questionable.

Only difference is McD has a QB where those Levy/Jauron teams never figured that part out. Of course, it was a different era and this team is better resourced financially, but the HC who runs the show is as much defensive focused as Jauron ever was. Some are definitively concluding that with this trade Buffalo just has to go WR in RD1. I'm not in that boat because they used their top pick last year on a flex TE, and 5 of 7 RD1 picks on defense before that. I very much could see McD getting his way again and grabbing another DB. And like his predecessor DJ, it's what he knows and feels comfortable with. What he doesn't understand nor wants to is how to build a competent NFL offense around a franchise QB, who others have noted, has his flaws.

Doesn't help Beane that his HC is wound tighter than a 1920s baseball and never wrong.

It's more of a process. Still a little soon after the Baltimore tragedy. Diggs is a twit for sure, but it's clear McD can't handle personalities that aren't in lock-step with him. Most NFL coaches realize they have to and do grudgingly. I would not be surprised to see them be more ball control, defensive-oriented. I have a hard time seeing McClappy, even if he does get a young receiver or 2, playing them. And less so featuring them.

This is a defeatist mentality based on their late position in RD1 and something I've seen over the years. It's like Whaley moaning about being in QB purgatory, yet some years later a new regime at OBD emphasized going to get their guy...and did it. I get that it's a cultural thing though...most people are scared to death of any risk now. Why not apply that outlook to the football team? Your assertion that a rotational DT who "is involved in every single play" is surface-level analysis. He's on the field perhaps 30-40 snaps and comes into contact with the opponent OL. Great. But reducing a WR to only impact 4-6 plays because they were targeted or made a catch is delusional. A guy who has speed affects the game by creating opportunities for other receivers. The work an opposing DC has to do accounting for that guy behind the scenes is something you completely miss. And lost in all this debate is that people continue viewing the draft as more for need than it really is. If you're a good team and using the draft that way, you won't be a good team for long. Another DT for a safe McDefense isn't going to do much long-term, even if he's a good starter.

I don't think Beane is as concerned about the draft pick short from the league. It's the classic, "look over there" move. And I get it because re-framing the narrative that the NFL is a problem takes focus from him at a media event. One he likely anticipated receiving questions about how they'll get beyond the divisional round game for the first time since 2020.

We talkin' bout safeties.

Setting the bar high I see.

People in here getting excited about safeties.

Late-career Cam, the now-retired Bridgewater, and Sam Howell versus Josh Allen. Think Shakir's QB is the same as the aforementioned 3 QB's Samuel's played with. As in, their production being similar is the comparison? If you do, then it's time to head back to the Sabres Board.

Maybe the guy throwing them the ball helped one guy's production versus having inhibited the other.

FIFY They got Mitchell Trubisky, Mack Hollins and Nick Morrow...what more do people want?

Talking about the center position. Next week it'll be back to another top safety or DT. Maybe even a RB. These off-seasons get longer every year and I didn't think that was possible about 10 years ago.

What if we had thread titles which briefly identified the point of the thread AND did not ask a question? It would be amazing.

Maybe the old-timers were right back in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. Lifting lots of weights may not be conducive to staying healthy and flexible enough to play baseball. The wear and tear of a 162 game schedule, compared to the 17 game NFL season, IMO is more about flexibility and endurance and less about raw power. Then again, I still love my 1920s/30s/40s/50s era Yankees when Pete Sheehy was the equipment manager and poor athletic training was the norm.

There are many contenders for TBD's quibbling champion. You're making your case right now...best of luck!

288 touches for 1242 yards and 10 TDs is now every bit as good as 339 touches for 2023 yards and 21 TDs. I understand now.

And when your job is on the line as Daboll's is this season, you're pushing to use all that cap space available. Because there might not be a next season.

Multi-year contract of ~13M/per to a 27 year old RB who average sub-4.0 YPC and has missed 21 games in last 4 seasons? Ouch. If that's winning UFA on Day 1 I don't want to know what losing looks like. NFC East keeps getting worse.

I am resigned to Cam Lewis re-signing. Keeping and overpaying your guys is a major reason they're restructuring many of them 1-2 years down the road. Have to see more of the contract details, but for now...meh.

HR at most corporations is almost worthless because the least talented people go there. And now most functions like benefits are online. By the way, who were the starting safeties for KC or SF last season? And were those guys 1st/2nd team All-Pro or even Pro Bowl selections last year? None of them were and it wouldn't have mattered much if it did against excellent offenses.