BillsVet

Amazing how they led the league in points scored that season and a full point per game higher than the season before with Hill. Maybe not as dominant, but still pretty good to win a SB for a transition year. Ironically, both KC and BUF have the same set-up with their HC's relationship to the GM. In neither does the GM supervise the HC and the latter sets their vision for the roster. KC, despite being somewhat cash poor, is still a better run organization than Buffalo.

I remember making fun of people here who claimed KC was done after trading Hill. With Mahomes, Kelce, and yeah, even Reid that was absurd. KC then invested part of the money saved from not paying Hill on Juju and some other receivers. And then won the SB. It's kinda like the people who pronounced KC done when they lost their starting multiple OLinemen from their 2020 bad OL ...and then picked up Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown at the start of UFA.

If the objective criteria of success is for a guy to demonstrate he "popped off the screen" I don't know what to tell you. Funny thing about the Chiefs is they've become a more complete team since the AFC CG loss to New England in 2018. They were 31st in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed (EDIT: that year). Last year, they were 2nd in both categories. We can go on all off-season debating this, but it's a very different ideology for building a roster there. The one thing they've been more adept at is sustaining their success and I haven't heard anyone in KC mention about being in "transition." No one said that when trading Tyreek Hill was done. The common theme is having difference makers and Buffalo doesn't have that aside from Josh. He's a big piece of the puzzle, but Buffalo lacks an elite receiver or pass rusher and haven't developed any either - yet.

I liked the Rousseau pick and still believe there was great value in signing Miller because a pass-rush is must-have to their scheme. Oliver, well, he's been real good, but it took to season 4-5 for it to happen. It's the need to have serious depth on DL that has always been an issue. They signed numerous DTs to serve as depth as their WR group remained the same or declined. But it's their "model" and what they do. The Chiefs have difference maker in Chris Jones, but also have out-performed Buffalo finding and developing pass rushers from the draft. It should be alarming the McD-coached Bills really haven't. As to not being in a position to draft good pass rushers, George Karlafaftis went 30th overall and registered 10.5 sacks last year. It's a cop-out of Doug Whaley proportions to say they don't draft high enough to obtain good ones. Point is, their "model" has failed to improve upon the 2020 season. Period. They've gone no further than the Divisional Round and if you're not improving, you're regressing. It's a model which is never challenged inside OBD and that's a problem. And now they have the cover saying their self-inflicted cap situation is inhibiting which necessitates a "transitional" year.

One of these decades the Carolina model could work. Carolina went 6-10 after that 15-1 season, so pretty clear that model is not sustainable. Besides, the game is changing rapidly now and what worked in that one excellent season nearly 10 years ago no longer applies. This is an issue of positional value. McBeane have a tendency to address their personal priorities first to fit their scheme and then cry poor when other positions aren't and they flak for it. They've now worked themselves into a corner cap-wise, and are sure to remind people of that self-inflicted limitation. If a team is using high draft picks on starting LB's and end up with Carolina's group in 2015, fine. If they "need" to use more high picks and UFAs for non-pass rushing DLinemen, not so fine. Buffalo still prioritizes the wrong positions and tries to get by at the high positional value slots with less. But it's their plan and they'll keep trying to jam that square peg into the round hole like a 4-year old. Papa Terry doesn't seem to care they're wasting his quarter-billion dollar QB in the process.

They spend months evaluating their season, identifying areas of improvement and personnel priorities, strategizing, and setting up their board. To conclude from one carefully edited video anything concrete is unrealistic. That board is built after all that off-season self-analysis is complete. Tendencies have merged from several drafts and UFA signings now. Sometimes, what they say offers insight into their overall strategy, like McD saying they want to run the ball better ever since the 2020 season ended. Those tendencies are out in the open now...like not taking WR/TE in 2021-22 and being forced to by 2023-24. Or seeing Brady get them in the second half of the 2023 season back to evening out the run to pass ratio. I'd argue the overall vision is pretty consistent pre-Josh becoming a franchise guy compared to now. This isn't about a RD4 RB or a RD5 C either. It's about their vision, which on offense doesn't come off as innovative. It's safe, and that's a characteristic McD has been since Day 1.

On X, Sharp followed up that this stat was since 2020, not 2000. That said, the strategy to just have Josh elevate everyone around him...I think he's done that about as much as you can ask a NFL QB to do. It's a risky strategy just expecting him to do that each and every year. If that's gonna be the case this season, he cannot be hurt or they go into the tank fast.

What is Anquan Boldin doing these days?

The issue is philosophical now and has been for a few years. This latest draft put it out in the open, but it's actually been a common theme McBeane's whole 7 years. First thing McD was saying after the 2020 Bills scored 500 points and made the AFC CG was he thought the offense needed to run it better. In the ensuing 2 drafts they used 0 picks in RD1-3 on WR or TE as Brown and Beasley declined. And they did run the ball decent later, but the offense was overall worse because their passing game declined. Compare their scoring from 2020 to 2021 to 2022 to last season. I'd expect a team to revisit their philosophy every off-season and ask whether it's working. This team though has a habit of running things back because innovating isn't their strong suit. 3 straight divisional round losses point to it not being. I think @Kirby Jackson had it right that anyone could get this team to 10-11 wins and perhaps 1 playoff win with Josh. Besides, the people who lazily compare this result to the drought years are just spewing sophistry into the discussion. It's not an either or of the drought performance or this. It's about getting beyond where they've been 3 years running and winning the SB. If you're content with increasingly worse divisional round losses, then go for it. Most fans with Josh aren't anymore.

Khalil Shakir is becoming the Bills equivalent of Bill Brasky. Every time the TBD'ers mention his name it's on some level of magnitude greater than the last time. It's funny, but so TBD. By the time camp rolls around I'm sure someone will project him as an All-Pro. "To Khalil Shakir!"

What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually.

I'm not your wife/GF, so I don't need to hear you out. The Bills do not seem interested in featuring a high-cost WR anymore for cap reasons. Because they won't have enough room to pay Josh, a non-rookie contract WR1, and providing all the pieces to McD's defense. I said around 2021 here that something would have to give eventually with their UFA spending, getting the pieces to the defense McD expects, and paying Josh. We're at that point now. You and many others are rationalizing what they've done and manufactured into why it's right. We're going to find out, but there is no proven deep threat on the roster and having watched this team, the more questions you have entering the season, the slimmer your margin for error is. Even with a franchise QB. It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's.

Yeah, you've framed the debate around winning when Mahomes has 3 of the last 5. Making the SB, there's Hurts with AJ Brown and D. Smith. Cincinnati with Burrow having Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Goff in 2019 with R. Woods, Cooks, and Kupp. If you're talking about making a CG, there's Purdy having McCaffrey, D. Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. Even Buffalo did that with Diggs, J. Brown, and Beasley in 2020. It's pretty common to put receiving options, UFA or drafted, around a younger QB to accelerate the development and increase chance of offensive success. Buffalo made sure Josh had better targets in 2019-20, but stopped adding in 2021-22.

If the last 9 games under Brady are any indication, at a minimum they'll be more balanced. In those games, they ran it 331 times versus 311 passes (including sacks taken). Maybe some wiggle room with Josh taking off on a pass play, but that's a 51.5-48.5% run to pass ratio. By comparison with Dorsey, it was 254 runs to 363 passes from games 1-10, or a 41-59% run to pass ratio. Whether or not that will be as successful with their personnel group is another question entirely.

Ironic that their defense has been well-defined since Day 1 of this regime schematically and in personnel. Offense, not so much. I think McD has always wanted a strong(er) running game, because he prioritizes the offense along what he fears most on defense. And his defense can be susceptible to a strong running game. Still, that's maybe not ideal given league-wide trends that favor passing and who he has at QB. Problem is, the OC's he hired all saw they had Josh Allen and weren't going to avoid using him like Brady seems willing to given the priorities and lack of complete passing options. Issue with this offense...it's safe and predictable. Running the ball complemented with a short to intermediate passing game and personnel to match. The quick-strike ability doesn't fit with reducing the defense's time on field. Then again, that's the HC. He plays it safe on draft day with Beane. Safe offense. A defense that is structured, but the scheme hasn't changed much in years. Safe gets you perhaps into the playoffs, but not much further as demonstrated by the past few years.

The defense is a part of the discussion because it doesn't have built-in durability. From 2017-23, they relied on veterans who had the experience, but had/have a lot of mileage on them and would get banged up. And then there's the LB's who, while good in coverage, don't hold up with both missing key games. I'm really not surprised they put another body at S, LB, and CB given the rampant injuries there. And that naturally spills over into how they scheme the offense, which when the defense is banged up, has the brakes put on it. Only now, the skilled receiving talent hinges on improvement from 2nd and 3rd year guys, a WR who might be a big slot type, and a having a strong running game. Difference this season is, I don't see anyone who can threaten deep. And, I'm not expecting their OL to be as healthy as they were last year. For Buffalo to win using this method against top teams, everything has to go right. The offense needs to get leads allowing the defense to play downhill and force teams to throw into that zone. When it works, it's great...but when it doesn't, things get ugly. You end up with Josh lugging it as Brady and his two predecessors needed.

Yeah, to run as fast after multiple IR stints, off-season surgeries, and the wear and tear of a 16-17 game schedules. Even WR's who aren't making contact every play, you still have a guy like Curtis Samuel with more than 4,000 snaps taken in his career.

This was the "take your medicine" draft for McD and Beane after years of predominantly mediocre UFA decisions and meh drafts. Taking Josh in 2018 and fitting a lot of UFAs around him accelerated their rebuild. Job accomplished. But what McBeane have demonstrated is they could not maintain that because they relied so heavily on higher priced UFAs/trades, notably at DL, OL, and WR. They kicked the can down the road often through frequent re-structuring. I'd argue it's harder to maintain a top team than it is to rebuild, but that task is made harder when you're trying to be solid across on both sides. Point is, you can't build out a complete team in this era and gotta prioritize. And you must draft well or else it leads to UFA spending that eventually catches up with you. That happened this season. Everyone here who follows the league understands the Bills are swimming against the current balancing the team between defense and offense. Hoping to break the mold at WR featuring a bunch of small and big slot types who will operate closer to the LOS. Expecting the defense to remain healthy into the playoffs and as effective there as they typically are in the regular season. It might be a "transition" season, but it was coming. This isn't a discussion about individual players. It's whether or not, once again, their plan is appropriate. We're going to see.

It will be interesting how teams prepare defensively for Buffalo with all these short to intermediate options. They might not need to play much 2 deep because there's no threat deep and can afford to cheat up even on PA. At least not one who's done it, despite having the QB with the strongest arm in the league. Also puts the running game at a deficit being so predictable throwing it.

And when they don't meet expectations, he offers a weak excuse like not being able to draft a JaMarr Chase-type WR because their QB was healthy. A fan can live with that if there's improvement the following season, but that didn't happen in 2023. It was same old, same old. I've always wondered when Beane would come to the realization that being tied at the hip of McDermott was an anchor on his career. Because as much as McD got him this job, it's McD whose plan largely drives personnel decisions. And, that plan does not seem to consider that Josh could want out because his career is physically and competitively being hampered by McBeane.

You're starting to catch on Logic. Good for you. This regime is playing from behind and McD is doing his version of Sinatra's "I did it my way" approach to building a roster. Brady calls the offense to fit the HC's strategy. He doesn't get to freelance and certainly is limited by the players he's given. And the guy who's in charge of player priorities is the same HC. You're satisfied that the same people who couldn't get over the hump from 13 seconds are now going to get it right after these cap issues they got the team into? This group has a tendency to cry cap problems that they themselves have inflicted when the masses aren't enamored with their decisions or limitations. McBeane are poor stewards of the cap and now they gotta take their medicine. But it's OK.

You forking out 5 figures for a PSL and then 4 figures for a ST?

Lotta mileage and gonna be 25 in November. Maybe Buddy Nix helped with the board this year in a consultant-type role.

Some have discussed this once or twice in the past few off-seasons.

There's been a splash move every 2 years (Josh, Diggs, Von) and now when nothing happens, people are upset. Besides, usually a solid foray into UFA. This is where the regime is now: out of money and with a smaller complement of picks they can't maneuver up with (at least on Day 1 and 2). Fans gotta get used to it.