BillsVet

Josh was the MVP last year and yet, he had one of the worst games a QB has ever had last season versus Houston. The Baltimore game also was a shock to that offense. How does one reconcile that? Did he not take his Nutrol and have a bad night's sleep before the New England game? Is it reasonable to conclude that, while having his faults, Josh's surrounding cast including the GM, HC and OC are not getting it done either. As in, that personnel decisions this off-season were poor, their overall philosophy is too risk-averse, that offensive game-plans are too conservative, and that featuring that WR group is insufficient. There's really two types of fans here this week: those who look back the past few weeks and do their own Kevin Bacon Animal House toutine, "All is well! Remain calm!" and those who see we're needlessly repeating Weeks 4 and 5 from last year all over again.

Offensively, Buffalo is in the same place at this time of the season as they were in 2024. Start hot against mediocre to average competition, then see an opponent adapt to what they're doing and not have the personnel to overcome it. Only question is whether Beane and the HC to look in the mirror and back away from how they scheme the offense and prioritize personnel. Trade deadline is November 4th so we're gonna find out.

Perhaps it's a new policy, but circa 2008-09 I saw game balls overthrown into the EZ and no official demanded them back. One woman had one in the row behind us and a friend caught one. Could see that changing in the ensuing years.

I wouldn't rule Beane making a deal for a WR, but that'd be 2 straight off-seasons he acknowledged a mistake. Couple issues: 1. Bills have 2.5M in cap space. Going to take some maneuvering to fit an acquired receiver under that. 2. Which WR does Buffalo DFA to fit that player on the game-day roster? Won't be Palmer, Shakir, or Coleman. Probably Samuel or Moore, neither of whom have shown much. 3. The acquired player displaces Coleman, who Beane's been rightly criticized about since he was drafted and has done almost nothing to dispel. Not a good look.

That's true. It's also true they had the same HC, OC, QB, RB, and entire OL last year when this problem occurred in Weeks 4 and 5. They chose to do little personnel-wise or schematically on offense to address the issue. Have to have another pitch when the fastball, i.e. the running game, isn't on. Downside of this offense is they don't have the personnel to amp up the passing game when the ground game needs help...unless Kincaid has more games like last night.

Against NE, Josh scrambled 7 times on designed passing plays and sacked once. That's about 20% of his drop-backs resulting in a sack or scramble. Last week was about the same rate of sacks/scrambles versus NO. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/2025/advanced/ Pre-Amari last season, Josh was sacked 6 times in 5 games, but only 8 more times in the following 12 games. This year, he's been sacked 8 times in 5 games. Maddening that a relatively easy observation from the beginning of last off-season is being repeated all over again. And of course, that he's getting hit more. Some of the negative externalities of not investing in better receivers.

McD and Beane going back a few seasons have become very conservative running it back in personnel, hiring assistants, and now schematically. It's like a lot of companies...staying with what works is easiest because change means uncertainty. The boldness to move up and draft Josh followed by the Diggs trade has been replaced with doubling down on DL, and thinking JAG WRs will work on a new team because Josh is the QB. And yeah, it's not about this loss. Those are going to happen. It's a leadership group which is trying to advance to the SB, but refuses to consider that their systems aren't functional when they need them most...even with Josh Allen at QB.

Buffalo had 8 turnovers last year out of 1,300 combined offensive regular and post-season snaps and somehow people expected that to continue? And now it's an issue? No, it was a statistical anomaly that a team could pull that off. Low risk, low-reward offenses are good...until they're not. Then you need a player who'll demand a defense's attention and perhaps Kincaid elevates his game and becomes that. What is evident is that their hodgepodge of receivers aren't much of an improvement off the 2024 early-season group.

Sometimes I think about Brady sitting in all those meetings this past off-season: from reviewing their 2024 season and areas to improve through to the UFA and draft prep. After all of that time all the offense gets is a WR3ish type in Josh Palmer. Brady will always be limited, even with Josh, coordinating an offense under McD and Beane. Hopefully, Kincaid starts having some games like he did tonight and opens up the passing game a little. I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure if anyone on the board leans as much on metrics to assess the NFL as you. Sure, it's safe to fixate on analytics and base your beliefs around that, but as @DrDawkinstein and @Coach Tuesday have noted, there's a human element in play here that metrics will never capture. Put yourself in Vrabel's shoes for a minute preparing this team for the game. This is NE's and his first big test against one of the Conference's best teams. Yeah, he'll want to, as those other 2 posters noted, make a statement. Not saying they'll win, but I expect they'll be prepared and motivated. Never doubt a person or people who are like that because they can surprise you. You can also throw out Babich's ranks in 2024 or what McDaniels did with Mac Jones (!) and in previous coaching stops. Has absolutely zero relevancy to Week 5 of the NFL season in a primetime game.

Yards per game is a relevant statistic, but it hides that their run defense is 31st with 164.3 yards allowed per game. Until Buffalo proves they can stop the run, teams aren't gonna be throwing it as much. And that's what inflates their yards allowed per game standing. But I do agree that #1 is a big problem. The GM's forays into UFA generally leave a lot to be desired while burning valuable cap. As to 2...I think it's time to note that injuries at LB and DT are a common theme going back a few years. They've attempted to mitigate this by signing more depth at the positions, but it'll never go away because those LBs need to cover in that scheme, but with a vulnerability to the run, teams are gonna run it more. And that means more tackling and the potential for injury to LBs especially. And 3...Babich has been here coaching defense for 8 seasons now under McD. You'd expect he doesn't need the HC holding his hand more given that experience. It's definitely a hot seat level right now considering he's not a newbie.

Mickey Loomis might even allow him input to signing UFAs or drafting kids that play offense too.

Lot of non-sequiturs and selective amnesia in your post, but this section is about as wrong as wrong can be. As in: 1. They had an offensive scheme, injuries or not, by Week 4. I'm just spit-balling, but that's what an OC spends his off-season and camp doing: designing and installing the offense. 2. No identity? You do know that players are acquired and a scheme installed during off-seasons? That's kind of what forms your identity. 3. "Everyone eats" was the mantra during camp. It didn't surface like a submarine in the middle of the season. 4. The GM traded for a WR for a reason. Was that because the 3rd round pick was burning a hole in his pocket? Was it because he liked the guy personally? Maybe it was because the WRs were just plain bad and incapable of getting open so Josh didn't get slammed onto the turf anymore waiting on them..

The answer for this comes down to how you interpret when and why Buffalo traded for Amari Cooper last year.

And I don't think it shocks anyone that this is playing out again. 2025 isn't 2024, but there are some similarities to the start of this season with last. Thankfully, there's no Baltimore or Kansas City-level opponent to play anywhere soon. I just wonder when defenses will adjust and if they do, even a lesser team, if Buffalo will have a bad game.

I researched around the draft ending how much draft capital Buffalo has used at certain positions, factoring in traded picks. That showed from 2021-2025, Buffalo used 12.4% of their draft value (or 779 points) on WRs. KC used 1,463 points during that same period including traded picks. Assuming a similar amount of draft capital, KC would be around 23% used at WR. The difference with KC is they're continually building the position with younger more highly regarded players whereas Buffalo does not. The Bills are content to draft one guy and just assume he'll perform and while it's still early with Coleman, issue remains doing this with Josh is odd. I've believed the Bills don't invest in WRs because they're not confident in their draft evals, but they prefer to go with what they know as evidenced by the 29.4% on DL and 23.1% on secondary they've used of their draft capital from 2021-25.

I had no issue with Romo before CBS told him to stop talking deep football observations and focus on happy-talk because that's what most fans can understand.

Being better than Daboll and Dorsey is a pretty low bar to set, particularly with an improved Josh Allen in 2024-25 versus 2020-23. As an aside, Brady keeps designing runs for Josh which McD essentially ended for Dorsey in the first half of 2023. Been back in their playbook since then, but I digress. The philosophy is what it is and that calls for synching the offensive and defensive schemes closely together. No one opposes the concept on offense of wanting to keep the ball, physically punish the opposing defense, having an offense which doesn't turn it over, keeps a run-pass balance, passes to max YAC/RAC, etc. This paired with a defense which gets turnovers, can put pressure on the QB, and forces throws into that zone is all good.... But it's still a low margin for error philosophy no matter who the OC is and what he calls. Particularly when the receivers are meh and struggle to get open. Requires Josh to do more, put himself in the line of fire running it, and is so-so against better competition particularly in the playoffs, as we've seen the last 2 years. Brady has schemed the offense McD wants and Beane staffed. It is what it is.

Works well against teams with inferior QBs like the Jets. As evidenced by the Division or Championship Game level, not so much unless Josh dials it up like he did in Week 1 versus Baltimore or against KC in the 13 seconds game. Larger point is, playing this style is about keeping defense off the field, as healthy as possible, beating up an opponents' defense, and maintaining possession. When it works, it's good. When it doesn't (because the enemy always has a say) then the offense has to score a lot of points.

Beane's re-signing all 5 guys not named Josh this off-season at or nearing the decision to extend would have surprised me a couple years ago, but not now. Seems like that have an organizational goal of not having players who push back on leadership. It's why I think they caved a little on Cook because he was becoming a distraction and McBeane obviously want to avoid that. The Shakir extension seemed off as well...he's an injury waiting to happen with how he plays. By my count, Buffalo re-signed 17 of the 22 drafted players taken in the 2017-2022 drafts who were at or within 1 year of an extension. To me, it appears that contract extensions are given by OBD based less on positional value, injury risk probability, etc. and more about loyalty.

Well, if that defense is largely healthy and it's still yielding 40 points to higher-caliber teams then their off-season was a miss...again. But we got a long way to go. Still, it wouldn't be the first time that their off-season changes were insufficient. And that should prompt people to ask whether what HC and GM believe in can work. Especially with this QB and how he is still getting better after an MVP season.

When you continually revamp defensive personnel and that unit falters in critical moments, then their governing philosophy is up for criticism. More now than any other season based on significant DL and a fair amount of secondary investment. This while wanting a run-pass balance to wear teams down on offense. There's little margin for error, and when it doesn't work then they need hero ball from Josh. He's mostly been up to the task, but when his low-moderate receiving talent aren't you get the AFC CG last year. Or, the Week 1 game against Baltimore.

That may be. Still doesn't remove the larger point that this season is a referendum on the HC, GM, and their philosophy on how to win.

I compare this more to Rex's schemes in New York effectivity around 2009-10. Those were more complicated to run, but needed the exact right players who had the smarts and physical ability. I think we're trending closer to that in Buffalo, except I don't see that McD's defensive scheme as so complex. Still needs a certain kind of player, which he found in 2017 for the secondary. Huge win or not on Sunday night, we're still debating the philosophy the HC and GM operate under. As in, whether a highly-resourced defense, particularly at DL combined with an offense featuring Josh, a very good OL, and an average-ish skilled talent group can win a SB. Buffalo's 2025 will answer that question.

Nah, you're listening to your mom yelling to you in the basement that the meatloaf is ready.