BillsVet

Against KC, Buffalo faced 14 3rd down and 6 4th down situations. Should tell the story for those who can read it because that ain't a dominating offense Hondo. Especially not when you need to convert twice on 4th and goal with remarkable plays in the second half to stay in the game. Josh running usage, either sneaks, designed runs, or on scrambles continues to be heavy. In the 2024 playoffs Buffalo needed Josh running is 29 times in 3 games. If the offense is so good, why do they still need Josh putting himself in the line of fire? Why do they end up in short yardage so often for all those tush pushes? It's because the offense predictably struggled against good defenses when it mattered. The thing you fail to realize or plain refuse to admit is the running game supports the passing game. It's like having a good changeup mixed with a plus plus fastball. Buffalo doesn't really invest compared to their primary playoff competition with WRs, so we compensate by saying the running game is good. But it's not that big of a deal. If it were, they'd re-sign James Cook yesterday.

You gotta have a backup plan when the defense isn't stopping the offense. It's akin to a MLB pitcher without his + stuff finding a way to win regardless. In the NFL, the backup plan is being able to out-score the opponent, which this regime doesn't think is necessary. (Cue the scoring 30ppg regular season crowd). Both this HC and GM expect that all pistons will be firing on both sides of the ball in the biggest games of the year. Even with a workaholic HC and no major weaknesses on that defense they'll run into good offenses who can out-duel it. People should have seen that against Baltimore, where it took a +3 turnover advantage and a dropped 2 point conversion for Buffalo to barely hold on. The following week when the injuries happened, Buffalo lacked the offensive firepower to overwhelm the Chiefs...because they don't invest there like their best/likely playoff opponents do. They're all-in on the strategy for 2025, although perhaps with some schematic wrinkles. If it doesn't work and they bottom out in the Divisional/Championship game round again...then the current plan should be scrapped in favor of a Josh-centered team. Because it'll have proven their plan is insufficient after 6 seasons doing it their preferred way.

Elijah Moore and Josh Palmer aren't maximizing Josh's window?

Saw Brubeck at the Montreal Jazz Fest...man could he still play well into his late 80s.

Was it Desmond who wrote it?

The WR debate is really just a front in this larger debate over McBeane's philosophy. Should be clear after these past 5 off-seasons it's (1) defense, particularly the DL and secondary along with (2) having a strong OL since Josh proved they have the QB. WR is far down the priority list and Beane isn't about to debate that no matter what. They didn't change the philosophy after 2020 when Josh proved he was their starting QB. They didn't change it when Josh re-signed the following off-season. They didn't change it after trading Diggs, and I don't expect them to change it even if 2025's quantity WR approach v2.0 doesn't work. Either they prove it works or die trying and from the looks of it that group is here to stay.

Last year I recall frequent reference to Green Bay having used multiple picks in the RD2-5 range and how a RD1 pick wasn't necessary. That may be true (although GB used their first RD1 pick there in 20+ years), but the Packers have used one Day 1, four Day 2 and four Day 3 picks on WRs going back to 2021. That compared to Buffalo's one Day 2 and three Day 3 picks At this point it's almost Buffalo being defiant and bucking the trend that teams take WRs. It remains fair, therefore, to highlight the disparity with other teams because it's a position of importance, particularly the boundary receivers. And to your point...yes, having them on rookie deals provides a benefit. The Bills need to do that not only at WR, but across their roster as re-signing all your own is nice in theory, but costly.

The personnel planning on defense compared to offense is such a stark contrast. They went DT and DE because their depth there will thin out real fast after 2025. Yet, at WR there's never been much planning ahead. They can get out of Samuel's deal after this season, Palmer after 2026, which leaves only Coleman and Shakir long-term. They have little in development unless you count a guy like Shavers who has been waived after his last 2 camps and put on the PS. But they're here at WR today because it wasn't a priority, as others have mentioned for 2021, 2022, and 2023. Taking Kincaid was a backup plan when the WRs were essentially gone his draft year. Coleman was a double-trade down. Right GB...it's not that they don't have them...it's that they don't plan to continuously improve the position as they do the secondary, DL, and even the LBs.

He averages less than 30 yards of total offense a game. You really want to die on this hill?

Define effective. Because based on the objective evidence below, he's a journeyman RB who does well in certain situations and most certainly is not an every-down player. If he were, he wouldn't be the 28th highest paid player on the team at less than 2M this season. Key UFA's tend to make far more. Nice try Hondo.

At least Gettleman and Hurney used 4 picks (2 1sts and 2 2nds) from 2013-2020. And Hurney was taking guys who were separating unlike Gettleman did in 2014 and 2015. I mean, are they really so much in lock-step with that philosophy or can they think for themselves at this point? The league changes a lot and if they're still adhering to what their former bosses were doing 5-10 years ago that bodes poorly for the future.

Ty Johnson? A 3rd down back, aka the easiest position to find in UFA and a part time one at that is proof positive? Sure dude. You got me on Leonard Floyd...1 player in the last 8 seasons who came in and produced some. Although, he was semi-invisible after the mid-way point of the season.

The trade for Diggs brought them 56 and their 62 which effectively they used to take 2 DL at 41 and 72. I didn't expect they'd walk away using that 2nd for more defense after selecting Hairston. Still, the defense, by a lot of metrics was not up to par for McD and certainly not in the playoffs. But what they did this off-season was bordering on obsessive defensively. This is a franchise which has now used 63% of their draft value on defense in the last 5 years.

Or, why they struggle with college WR evals and just decide not to pick those guys because it's too risky. Unlike about 30 other teams.

Name a single key player acquired in the period between the draft ending and Week 1 by this organization in 8 years. Reality is the two key player acquisition methods are over now and they're down to 4.1M in cap room which largely go to 2025 draftee contracts. Come to think of it, when was the last time Buffalo signed a productive WR in UFA before or after the draft?

Beane demonstrating some performance theater for the fans. Nothing more and nothing less than his schtick. Lot of people forget last year they were so set at WR after the draft he had to make a reference to working out a veteran NFL WR who turned out to be Quintez Cephus. Then, 2 weeks later they signed MVS which indirectly acknowledged their limited WR contingent couldn't get down field. In fact, their WR plan was so good in 2024, that after Josh got his head slammed against the turf in Baltimore and going 9 for 30 at Houston Weeks 4 and 5 respectively they traded for Amari Cooper. Jeremy and Joe, despite what anyone thinks of them, have every right to question a franchise which essentially just replicated their negligent WR moves.

Makes sense that they've traded for 3 and signed several in UFA during their tenure with relatively few drafted in RD1-4. At the same time, that gets pretty costly taking on or adding new contracts. Seems like their approach is to avoid the problem and just import WRs who have some actual NFL tape on them.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a veteran HC paired with, admittedly an admin-type GM, have some awareness about what to look for on both sides of the ball. If their lack of knowledge on WRs inhibits them from selecting them that's a huge red flag because it suggests they don't want to or don't care to learn after nearly a decade paired together. Furthermore, if I'm Joe Brady I walk away from this off-season a lot less enthused considering they essentially ignored the offense and basically said we're good there. It's a good thing they have Josh Allen because I'm not sure a prospective OC would want to work for McD and Beane knowing their voice is called upon when the HC and GM feel it's right.

I forgot the Rasul Douglas trade, so it's 63% defense since 2021. If I have time, I'll compare the WR draft value to their overall use and then offense. On the rare occasion they do draft one, it's not as well aligned to the scheme or coaching. Coleman was taken ostensibly to start, but it was clear he needed to be brought along slowly and they didn't do that. Reminds me of something @Coach Tuesday said last month about how their OL is good in this respect likely because Kromer is probably better at communicating needs to Beane and the scouts. They aren't there with WR's and part of that is I'm not sure who in that off-season process is advocating for the offense. Because the offense got severely short-changed this off-season in UFA and the draft.

From 2017-2025 including the trades I'm aware of (Benjamin, Diggs, and Cooper) Buffalo's allocated 47% of their draft value to offense, 52.7% to defense, and the rest is ST. From 2021-2025, they've taken it to another level. Offense is 37.5% compared to 62.2% on defense. I happened to do this without seeing the thread and I wanted to see it myself anyway.

Not yet, but give it time. A RD4 pick likely wasn't gonna be the difference this season on offense anyway. But they don't have the luxury of pleading ignorance either about WRs after entering last season with one of the worst groups in the NFL. People don't think the offense can tail off with Josh. That assumption will eventually get them into trouble just like it did to begin 2024.

If I'm not mistaken Josh saw 2-deep safeties 3rd least in the NFL last season. If that's not a reflection of how opponents assessed their WR group then I don't know what is. They needed to improve the defense and have made a significant attempt at that. But this team tends to play whack-a-mole with how they build their roster: fixing last year's problems and not considering other areas could drop off. In this case, the passing game predictably ran into a wall and they needed an in-season acquisition to address that. To ignore it again is, as you note, malpractice.

Seconded. Alas, this regime is unlikely to pursue a true WR1 again like Diggs was in 2020. They've convinced themselves that an ensemble cast of WR3's is just as suitable to enter the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Didn't work against quality teams to begin 2024...and won't this year either.

Milano was a 2017 pick when Beane wasn't in the building. The others are complementary pieces he then signs to top-10-15 at their position contracts. What is lost in this latest discussion about re-signing someone it's getting pricy. Truth is, they've got to start seeing starting caliber play out of guys on rookie or value UFA contracts. They can't sign everyone to market-based deals because it's how you're cap-challenged each March. Case in point: Of their 22 2017-2022 draft picks who reached or neared the end of their rookie deals, they've re-signed 16. And of those, 12 got 9M+ AAV extensions. Also speaks to how they're targeting lesser positional value players in the middle rounds, who while it's nice some have earned a second deal, it'd be better to find a solid pass rusher, WR, or even DT who means they don't have to pay one in UFA or take one high. I raise this point because as a perennial playoff team, they need to up their personnel acumen, pro and amateur. Can't just sign everyone for Beane to call their low-hanging fruit some exotic delicacy.

Entirely plausible. But not replacing him with someone the GM trusts in the ensuing 3 years and/or learning from their draft decisions is also concerning. We'll see how this draft goes...I'm just seeing them settle for tweaks too much to my liking.